2014 Roster Projections

[redsoxrules]

On a unrelated note, Salty would accept a lower deal to stay in Boston as he likes to play there. Reports is that Mcann will be quite expensive as in close to 100M. Ill pass on that and keep Salty for quite cheaper

[Thunder]

Does the new Mariners manager have any ties with Ells? I haven't found any yet.

[marklmw]

Tanaka pitches to contact? That won't fly in the MLB where the hitters are much better here. No thanks

 

Greg Maddux

[jung]

Not that there is that much angst about it here but I hear and see a lotta' angst about how much 2014 is up in the air as far as roster goes. Who is going to play here. Who is going to play there etc.

 

I actually think this is something we are all going to have to get used to. In fact I don't really understand the angst. It has been years and years since you could really expect to see the same guys wearing your laundry that many years in a row. Maybe there is a little more of it this year because we had so many short term deals. But we will know who takes the QO's soon and that will tell us a good deal about who is playing where.

 

I still think Drew takes the QO. I think it likely that we see Salty back here. Not sure we will bite on McCann. I don't think Naps takes the QO but I do think we get him back here because we are in a better position to negotiate for his services.

 

Hopefully we use 2014 to take care of Jon Lester. Although I can see him deciding to test the market. It would not be a complete surprise.

[User Name]

Greg Maddux

 

You are comparing a guy who has yet to throw an MLB pitch to one of the greatest pitchers to ever toe the rubber. You see exactly why some of us are trying to temper your expectations

[jung]

I don't think we have talked about him in a long time but boy would Stanton look good in a Sox uni or what? Young guy...probably would sign to a long term deal willingly instead of grudgingly. But at the same time he is likely the one guy that the Marlins could absolutely demand an overpay on because he is still cost controlled. It would take a bunch to get him here but my God would he just answer so many questions for the Sox for what....ten years I guess???

[Palodios]

I don't think we have talked about him in a long time but boy would Stanton look good in a Sox uni or what? Young guy...probably would sign to a long term deal willingly instead of grudgingly. But at the same time he is likely the one guy that the Marlins could absolutely demand an overpay on because he is still cost controlled. It would take a bunch to get him here but my God would he just answer so many questions for the Sox for what....ten years I guess???

 

Didn't we say the same thing again about Agon?

[jung]

AGon was older though. I do have to admit that I don't know if Stanton would be the same kind of mismatch here that Crawford was and that Agons was. I have not looked at him in that light.

 

One of the other counter arguments to paying too much for a Stanton is that if you get even one of the sandwich picks if somebody picks up one of your QO guys, players are coming up and producing at a major league level so much earlier now that maybe you can turn a pick into a Stanton type that just requires a couple of years of patience and there you are.....Not that I would know who that guy is either but some guys are developing at a faster pace than we are used to seeing.

[Palodios]

AGon was older though. I do have to admit that I don't know if Stanton would be the same kind of mismatch here that Crawford was and that Agons was. I have not looked at him in that light.

 

Agon also played gold glove defense and could stay healthy a full season.

[mvp 78]

My fascination is that I am looking ahead. You cannot say that he will not be as good as Darvish. He may not be as good as Dempster ... remember that he has yet to pitch in MLB. I also heard that he has an incredible splitter ... I am thinking how cool it would be to have a starter who pitches like Koji. I like pitchers who can pitch to contact ... make three outs with 8 pitches. .

Koji was a starter once. What if Tanaka is just destined to be an MLB reliever. Spending $100M on him would seem foolish to me. Most scouts see his ceiling as a #3, which means there's a lot of wiggle room to fall lower in the rotation and possibly out of it.

[mvp 78]

Agon also played gold glove defense and could stay healthy a full season.

 

But his Mickey Mouse ears are hard to fit in a helmet.

[jung]

Before I forget, the Sox offered the QO' Monday so it is this Monday coming that the three guys in question have to respond...not Wednesday...my bad.

[marklmw]

Koji was a starter once. What if Tanaka is just destined to be an MLB reliever. Spending $100M on him would seem foolish to me. Most scouts see his ceiling as a #3, which means there's a lot of wiggle room to fall lower in the rotation and possibly out of it.

 

I would love to see the scouting report that has Tanaka as a number 3. I guess you can laugh at the team who ends up with him.

[sk7326]

Didn't we say the same thing again about Agon?

 

Gonzalez was older. And also, and this is a risk with corner guys ... he was not an amazing athlete. Good for a 1B, but not especially athletic. The transition when he slipped was stark. Also I think scouts underestimated how much of his plate discipline in San Diego was driven by being the only good hitter in a horrid offense. Gonzalez was a higher risk to fall off a cliff - although he was also seen as a sure thing by the industry. His dropoff in 2012 and beyond caught a lot of people off guard - I think a lot of teams were ready to have that happen to them,

[Palodios]

I would love to see the scouting report that has Tanaka as a number 3. I guess you can laugh at the team who ends up with him.

 

I just don't see any reason why Tanaka isn't a complete lock to go to the Yankees. They desperately need a starter to replace Pettite and/or Kuroda. They desperately want to get under the luxury tax. They are the richest team in the majors. They also have a pretty solid pick #18 that they might not want to give away. Garza won't cost a draft pick either, but he's barely in #3 territory these days.

[sk7326]

One thing I did try to check on Twitter was any restrictions to trading QO'd players. Apparently, as far as I can tell, there is no waiting period on flipping a QO signee (unlike say the NBA which has a 3 month waiting period for a free agent signee). So, if that is true - then I have to stand corrected on a lot of what I thought about Stephen Drew getting offered a QO. We can look at him in a lot of ways, but if he takes the QO, that suddenly could very well give the Red Sox the best available SS on the market for a VERY palatable contract ... I suspect a lot of teams would be banging down their door.

 

Now from what I can tell, the CBA has restrictions on newly signed FAs being dealt. But do QO accepters fall in the same category of guys who take salary arbitration in the old system (like how the Rays got Rafael Soriano). The research is very hazy here. But if signing and trading QO'ers is actually possible, Drew makes a ton more sense.

[sk7326]

Tanaka pitches to contact? That won't fly in the MLB where the hitters are much better here. No thanks

 

He does by the reports have at least one swing and miss pitch. Pitching to contact is a good thing and will help in the big league transition (as long as the stuff carries) - we have lived life with away from contact, no thanks. I do think the wear is a legit question. But an extreme strike thrower with a swing and miss splitter is a #3 with #2 potential, especially as a 25 year old. I am not saying I am in on him, but I understand. It's such a shaky market for pitching (see Ubaldo Jimenez) that it is the plunge you take if you want a high end starter.

[marklmw]

Koji was a starter once. What if Tanaka is just destined to be an MLB reliever. Spending $100M on him would seem foolish to me. Most scouts see his ceiling as a #3, which means there's a lot of wiggle room to fall lower in the rotation and possibly out of it.

Koji is 38 now. come on man. Koji did not have the resume of Tanaka either.

[marklmw]

I just don't see any reason why Tanaka isn't a complete lock to go to the Yankees. They desperately need a starter to replace Pettite and/or Kuroda. They desperately want to get under the luxury tax. They are the richest team in the majors. They also have a pretty solid pick #18 that they might not want to give away. Garza won't cost a draft pick either, but he's barely in #3 territory these days.

 

Come on man! The Yankees are much to clever to sign Tanaka. The guy has never pitched at the MLB level.

[marklmw]

He does by the reports have at least one swing and miss pitch. Pitching to contact is a good thing and will help in the big league transition (as long as the stuff carries) - we have lived life with away from contact, no thanks. I do think the wear is a legit question. But an extreme strike thrower with a swing and miss splitter is a #3 with #2 potential, especially as a 25 year old. I am not saying I am in on him, but I understand. It's such a shaky market for pitching (see Ubaldo Jimenez) that it is the plunge you take if you want a high end starter.

 

Pitching to contact is pitching. When you try to strike out every hitter it runs up your pitch count, you end up walking to many hitters and puts your teammates to sleep in the field. Dice K is a perfect example of a pitcher who wanted to strike every hitter out.

[jung]

There is surely a lotta' information out there regarding Tanaka at this point. Much of it seems like PR stuff.

 

I guess the one thing that I have seen a good deal that bothers me is the comparisons to Darvish a guy that is worth comparing because he has been able to come over here and pitch very much like an MLB pitcher. The reports I have seen say that Tanaka does not have Darvish stuff. He apparently has more pitches and throws them for strikes more often than Darvish. But in truth is that not the big differentiator between guys that succeed in the NPB and guys that can quickly transition to MLB? Darvish has looked like he was a US bred pitcher right away and at least from the reports it does not sound like that is Tanaka at this point. Sounds like Tanaka is sort of in the middle of a dice-k and a Darvish. That would suggest he could be a really good pitcher. But we sorta' know what Darvish is at this point. If his ceiling is not as high as Darvish's then that implies to me that he has the potential to slot into a good ML rotation as either a 2 or a 3. This is probably why ML GM's have their jobs and we have our web site.

 

If he can in fact develop to slot in behind the 1 on a quality staff well then you are pretty much getting a decent return as paying for pitching goes these days. If he cannot make it that far and ends up a solid 3, well a solid 3 is a nice to have but there are certainly ways to get to a solid 3 that don't involve so much cash and so much uncertainty. We have guys coming up now that look every bit like they could be a solid 3.

 

I would resist the temptation to at this point compare him to Greg Maddox, one of the best pitchers of his generation and a guy that successfully transitioned from mainly a pitcher with terrific stuff to a pitcher with pinpoint location as he aged and his velo declined.

 

Honestly I would not be much disappointed either way. If they sign him it will be fun to see what happens with him here. If they don't sign him then we will surely end up seeing some ball player or another, likely one that does not have so much uncertainty attached to him. No question the Sox have things they are going to have to do with this roster for 2014. So it is not like they will not be making moves and spending money.

[iortiz]

The same people that said that Darvish wasn't that good at the time, now are saying that Tanaka is not that good either. Interesting.

[StealBasesWinGames]

Daisuke Matsuzaka!

[mvp 78]

The same people that said that Darvish wasn't that good at the time, now are saying that Tanaka is not that good either. Interesting.

 

Stop making s*** up please. UN said over and over again that he was a great pick up and that he had ace potential. I can't find any post where I commented on him.

[User Name]

Stop making s*** up please. UN said over and over again that he was a great pick up and that he had ace potential. I can't find any post where I commented on him.

 

Good luck with that......

[a700hitter]

Anyways...

 

QO and walk:

 

Salty

Drew

Ellsbury

 

I'd love to keep some or all of these players but I can see the argument about not gumming down our financial flexibility, especially after not doing so helped us win big this year.

 

 

I'd keep Drew and Ellsbury if possible, but there's sense to letting both of them move on.

 

Resigning:

 

Mike Napoli (3 years, $45M) -- Napoli's type of hitter tends to age fairly well, and his hip wasn't an issue this year. I think he's earned the stability of a proper contract.

 

Signings:

 

Covelli "Coco" Crisp -- proficient hitting from the right hand side, capable of bringing some of Ellsbury's lost speed back, demonstrated as willing to split time both here and on the A's.

 

Willie Bloomquist -- not the flashiest utility guy, but brings some speed off the bench and a crapload of versatility.

 

Kelly Shoppach -- basically a Ross redux, except younger and not coming off a World Series win -- less emotion associated with him ensures he'll be played in his role rather than overexposed.

 

Didn't Shoppach cause trouble when we had him whining about playing time? I think that he was also a problem subsequently in the Mets clubhouse. Why not stick with Ross?

[a700hitter]

As long as Ben doesn't get rid of Ortiz or Pedroia, I'll have no complaints with his offseason plan. Three championships in ten years-- O am still pinching myself. I'd like to see Ells stay, but if Cherries let's him walk that's okay too.

 

BTW, this off season will fly by. Last year, our hot stove discussions started in August. The off season seemed to take forever. We are already in November and our season finished one week ago.

[rjortiz]

I just don't see any reason why Tanaka isn't a complete lock to go to the Yankees. They desperately need a starter to replace Pettite and/or Kuroda. They desperately want to get under the luxury tax. They are the richest team in the majors. They also have a pretty solid pick #18 that they might not want to give away. Garza won't cost a draft pick either, but he's barely in #3 territory these days.

 

The Dodgers

[rjortiz]

Didn't Shoppach cause trouble when we had him whining about playing time? I think that he was also a problem subsequently in the Mets clubhouse. Why not stick with Ross?

 

Ross probably isn't an everyday catcher at this stage in his career.

[sk7326]

What you tend to expect with NPB pitchers is that generally they pitch away from contact, and that they tend to use a lot of different pitches to get it done. There is a lot of deception involved, and the cat and mouse game between pitcher and hitter seems to be emphasized. Tanaka has several different pitches, as did Dice-K, as did Darvish. But you get here, you need to be successful in the strike zone, and the best way to get there is to go from throwing 6 or 7 pitches to the 3 or 4 pitches you command the best. Coming to the US, you'd expect Tanaka to be encouraged to stick with the fastball-splitter-slider combo and maybe tinker with another pitch. If his splitter is really plus-plus and his slider is solid, that is a guy with a pretty good chance for success.

 

Dice-K never simplified his approach as is necessary here. Darvish clearly has had no such issue - although you can argue that Darvish' pure stuff is better than Matsuzaka's. At the same time, Dice-K's consistent low BABIPs suggest excellent stuff which largely was ruined by crappy approach.