Sizing up the ALCS - Through 5 games

[Orange Juiced]

In my series of "Sizing up the ALCS" threads, here was my analysis:

 

Starting pitching: Edge - Detroit

Relief pitching: Edge - Boston

Offense: Edge - Boston

Defense and Intangibles: Edge - Boston

 

Here's what's transpired so far:

 

Starting pitching

Det:

G1: 6.0 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 6 bb, 12 k

G2: 7.0 ip, 2 h, 1 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 13 k

G3: 8.0 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 10 k

G4: 6.0 ip, 8 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 7 k

G5: 6.0 ip, 9 h, 4 r, 3 er, 0 bb, 5 k

TOTALS: 33.0 ip, 23 h, 7 r, 6 er, 10 bb, 47 k, 1.64 era, 1.00 whip, 12.8 k/9, 5 quality starts

 

Bos

G1: 6.1 ip, 6 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 4 k

G2: 5.2 ip, 8 h, 5 r, 5 er, 0 bb, 6 k

G3: 6.2 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 8 k

G4: 3.0 ip, 5 h, 7 r, 7 er, 3 bb, 1 k

G5: 5.1 ip, 7 h, 2 r, 2 er, 3 bb, 3 k

TOTALS: 27.0 ip, 30 h, 15 r, 15 er, 7 bb, 22 k, 5.00 era, 1.37 whip, 7.3 k/9, 2 quality starts

 

HUGE EDGE: DETROIT

 

Relief Pitching

Det

G1: 3.0 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 5 k

G2: 1.0 ip, 5 h, 5 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 2 k

G3: 1.0 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 1 k

G4: 3.0 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 3 k

G5: 3.0 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 3 k

TOTALS: 11.0 ip, 11 h, 7 r, 6 er, 3 bb, 14 k, 4.91 era, 1.27 whip, 11.5 k/9

 

Bos

G1: 2.2 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 2 k

G2: 3.1 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 1 k

G3: 2.1 ip, 2 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 4 k

G4: 5.0 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 3 k

G5: 3.1 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 2 k

TOTALS: 16.2 ip, 12 h, 1 r, 1 er, 8 bb, 12 k, 0.54 era, 1.20 whip, 6.5 k/9

 

HUGE EDGE: BOSTON

 

Offense

Det: 164 ab, 16 r, 42 h, 9 2b, 0 3b, 2 hr, 15 rbi, 15 bb, 34 k, 2 sb, 0 cs, .256/.333/.348/.681

Bos: 165 ab, 14 r, 34 h, 9 2b, 1 3b, 3 hr, 13 rbi, 13 bb, 61 k, 5 sb, 0 cs, .206/.268/.327/.595

 

Boston gets the baserunning edge and they've outscored Detroit in 3 of the 5 games, but on the whole, Detroit's offense has been better. Obviously the stats are a bit slanted thanks to game 4.

 

EDGE: DETROIT

 

Fielding and Intangibles

Both managers have made interesting moves, from pitching changes to pinch-running to lineup changes. It's hard to tell who is doing a better job. Both have made questionable moves and both have made sensible ones.

 

In terms of fielding, Boston has made 2 errors and a couple of non-errors by Pedroia in game 4 that still probably should have been made. Detroit has 3 errors (2 HUGE ones: Cabrera last night and Iglesias in game 2), and a few more plays that could have been made (Fielder's drop of a foul pop, Sanchez should have made a play last night). Both teams have made some great plays (Pedroia's diving stop, Ellsbury's diving catch, Gomes stumbling grab, Iglesias' incredible catch last night, etc.). But on the whole, Boston's defense has been better.

 

EDGE: BOSTON

 

We thought it would be a close series, and after 5 games, it has been incredibly tight. Boston leads 3 games to 2, but Detroit has outscored them by 2 runs overall. It's been as close a series as one could have imagined, with four of the five games being decided by one run.

 

Just great, gut-wrenching, nail-biting, drama-filled baseball theater. Incredible stuff.

[User Name]

It's not hard to tell which manager has done a better job. Leyland has been terrible. He's compromised his defense with an injured Cabrera and Peralta in LF, misused his BP, and let Iggy hit last night against Koji in a crucial situation with a LH bat and extra SS on the bench. It's not close.

[Dojji]

It's been a great series. I just wish I'd gotten to watch more of it. I hate working the late shift when the playoffs are on.

[RedSoxNC84]

It's not hard to tell which manager has done a better job. Leyland has been terrible. He's compromised his defense with an injured Cabrera and Peralta in LF, misused his BP, and let Iggy hit last night against Koji in a crucial situation with a LH bat and extra SS on the bench. It's not close.

 

Yeah his management and bullpen use has definitely cost them a couple games now. Let's hope he keeps it up.

[jung]

Jim Leyland is finally too old. It happens to all of us. Finally has happened to him.....

[sk7326]

Farrell has done a better job than Leyland for sure. At the same time, Leyland has done so little in terms of moves - that he limits the downside damage that could be done. None of the four managers in the LCS are in the Francona-Bob Melvin sort of level but Farrell has probably done the best job. It's not like he or Leyland is actively hurting their teams the way that Ron Washington does routinely in Texas.

[User Name]

Farrell was not happy with making me look good in this thread, so he decided to make the dumbest f***ing move in any post-season game.

[mvp 78]

Farrell was not happy with making me look good in this thread, so he decided to make the dumbest f***ing move in any post-season game.

 

Starting Gomes or not pinch hitting for Vic?

[User Name]

Bringing in Morales to pitch for Fielder.

[mvp 78]

Bringing in Morales to pitch for Fielder.

 

You bring in Doubront?

 

The loss of Andrew Miller has definitely hurt the bullpen.

[User Name]

You bring in Doubront?

 

The loss of Andrew Miller has definitely hurt the bullpen.

 

I bring in anyone, or even leave Buch in there. You don't want a wild guy in a crucial situation like that.

[mvp 78]

Buch was done at that point. Thanks extended vacation during the season!

[User Name]

Yet he had more of a chance of getting Fielder out than "Wild Thing" Morales.

[jung]

Bringing in Morales was incomprehensible. Probably the only downside to winning the thing tonight was that Morales coming in there probably gets lost in the shuffle and we won't even get to hear how Farrell somehow parsed that situation out in his head and spat Morales out.

[Beaneater]

I bring in anyone, or even leave Buch in there. You don't want a wild guy in a crucial situation like that.

 

I agree 100%. Morales is the last and final person out of our 'pen in that spot. Farrell could have gone with either of the big guns, Taz or Breslow, or failing that, maybe Workman. If he was dead set on it being a lefty, I'd much rather have seen Doubs out there than Morales.

 

Honestly, I'd be happy enough to hear that Morales is off the WS roster. He's lost right now. I have a lot of hope for the guy. I see him being another Andrew Miller -- big lefty arm with astounding stuff but needing to get his mind in the right place. That has worked out great for Miller, and I hope it can work out for Morales. The WS is not the time for that tinkering, though.

 

Not that replacing him on the roster with Thornton is a huge confidence-inspiring move either...

[sk7326]

I bring in anyone, or even leave Buch in there. You don't want a wild guy in a crucial situation like that.

 

Stick with Buchholz ... OR just go to Breslow THEN ... you did it in Game 5. Going to one of your low leverage guys then (especially Morales - Workman I can defend a bit) made no sense. Fortunately Prince Fielder saved the day for us there.

 

I'd drop Morales from the World Series roster and add Lavarnway ... doesn't hurt to have a 3rd catcher/PH with the NL rules. Morales is not really a matchup lefty anyway, and if you are going to go to a non-Tazawa/Breslow/Uehara, I'd prefer Dempster.

[sk7326]

I agree 100%. Morales is the last and final person out of our 'pen in that spot. Farrell could have gone with either of the big guns, Taz or Breslow, or failing that, maybe Workman. If he was dead set on it being a lefty, I'd much rather have seen Doubs out there than Morales.

 

Honestly, I'd be happy enough to hear that Morales is off the WS roster. He's lost right now. I have a lot of hope for the guy. I see him being another Andrew Miller -- big lefty arm with astounding stuff but needing to get his mind in the right place. That has worked out great for Miller, and I hope it can work out for Morales. The WS is not the time for that tinkering, though.

 

Not that replacing him on the roster with Thornton is a huge confidence-inspiring move either...

 

Have to play 2-3 games in the NL park ... replace him with another position - I'd go Lavarnway, though McDonald is a fair choice also.

[Orange Juiced]

Well, I'm happy (and actually somewhat surprised) that my pre-series analysis was pretty spot on. I thought the Tigers had a big edge in starting pitching, and they did. I thought the Sox had a big edge in the bullpen, and they did. I thought the Sox had an edge offensively, and they did. I thought the Sox had a slight intangible edge, and they did (though I was wrong about the managers - I guess Farrell had a better series than Leyland, though the decision to go with Morales in game 6 could have been a complete difference-maker in a negative way). I thought Boston had the edge in baserunning and defense, and they did. I also predicted Sox in 6 and that's what happened.

 

I'll need a day to put together a World Series preview. I'm so pumped!!!!

[Palodios]

Well, I'm happy (and actually somewhat surprised) that my pre-series analysis was pretty spot on. I thought the Tigers had a big edge in starting pitching, and they did. I thought the Sox had a big edge in the bullpen, and they did. I thought the Sox had an edge offensively, and they did. I thought the Sox had a slight intangible edge, and they did (though I was wrong about the managers - I guess Farrell had a better series than Leyland, though the decision to go with Morales in game 6 could have been a complete difference-maker in a negative way). I thought Boston had the edge in baserunning and defense, and they did. I also predicted Sox in 6 and that's what happened.

 

I'll need a day to put together a World Series preview. I'm so pumped!!!!

 

I was surprised that the Red Sox offense ended up outperforming the Tigers. It seemed that the Tigers lineup was beat up. Miggy started the series hurt, and Hunter and Avila got hurt halfway through. Peralta was a beast early, but it seemed like the Red Sox pitching caught up to him eventually. Prince looked like he caught Cecil Fielder disease in the playoffs, and Iggy turned back into a pumpkin afterall.

[jung]

I really don't know why Iggy is such a polarizing figure. He is what he is. Either a team has to resign itself to that or will be stuck perennially disappointed in him.

 

We got a good taste of what life with Iggy turns out being in that series. Every single defensive blunder Iggy makes will be hard to swallow. Iggy has to literally be perfect defensively making every play that he should make and many that he has no business making just to break even. He will be great fun to watch...in truth a pure joy in the field even though he is capable of error clearly. But given his obvious shortcomings at the plate, is that what you really want in an everyday SS. Frankly even with his plate problems I would give up a little spectacular sizzle for a little better every day plain jane SS play from him.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, I'm happy (and actually somewhat surprised) that my pre-series analysis was pretty spot on. I thought the Tigers had a big edge in starting pitching, and they did. I thought the Sox had a big edge in the bullpen, and they did. I thought the Sox had an edge offensively, and they did.

 

If the edge you're thinking of is that we outscored them 19-18, then we had an edge.

 

Overall, Tigers hit 254/329/330. Sox hit 202/277/332.

 

Our offense was abominable. We won with pitching, defence and a few timely home runs.

[Orange Juiced]

If the edge you're thinking of is that we outscored them 19-18, then we had an edge.

 

Overall, Tigers hit 254/329/330. Sox hit 202/277/332.

 

Our offense was abominable. We won with pitching, defence and a few timely home runs.

 

Well, runs scored is the most important offensive stat of them all. And, yes, the Sox outscored Detroit. Moreover, they outscored Detroit against a much tougher rotation to face than what Detroit's offense did.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, runs scored is the most important offensive stat of them all. And, yes, the Sox outscored Detroit. Moreover, they outscored Detroit against a much tougher rotation to face than what Detroit's offense did.

 

3 of our runs were unearned. They outscored us 18-16 in earned runs.

 

The best you can say is that the offences were roughly a wash.

[Orange Juiced]

3 of our runs were unearned. They outscored us 18-16 in earned runs.

 

The best you can say is that the offences were roughly a wash.

 

Runs are runs.

[Bellhorn04]

Runs are runs.

 

OK, you win. Our offence kicked theirs.

[redsoxfan3]

Have to play 2-3 games in the NL park ... replace him with another position - I'd go Lavarnway, though McDonald is a fair choice also.

 

If it came down to Lavarnway or McDonald. I think we need to stick with Lavarnway. He is more of an offensive threat as a pinch hitter. Pedroia is going to play through almost any injury. Middlebrooks and Bogaerts can play 3B and Drew and Bogaerts can play SS. I don't think McDonald is that valuable as of right now without an injury. Lavarnway would be able to give us more value offensively as a pinch hitter.

[Orange Juiced]

OK, you win. Our offence kicked theirs.

 

I didn't say they "kicked theirs". No need to create a straw man. I just think that the Sox' offense outscored Detroit's, and against better pitching, so I think in the end, the Sox' offense did better than Detroit's (though obviously it was very close). I don't have a problem if you disagree.