Should we resign Jacoby Ellsbury?

[jung]

V had no idea what he was doing. You can blame the car or the driver. There is no rational for throwing your limping car into the ditch but Bobby managed it.

 

The biggest dif was the starting pitching. We said before 2013 started that it would really all hinge on the starting pitching and in the end it was the biggest year over year difference. The only place where those that believed that would be the case early on erred was in the estimation that Buch would have to contribute for the entire year. He couldn't but the rest were so damned good with the addition of Peavy that it just did not matter.....amazing on its own score.

[SoxSport]

The compatibility argument all the way up the line was probably a key factor. The dysfunctionality last year was about the FO and the coaches vs the manager, as well as some of the players vs the manager. It was really the FO vs manager, with the coaches and the players taking both sides. valentine never had a chance in that environment. But he walked away happy with $6 million in his pocket.

 

If Cherington had gotten his way last year, and signed Sveum as manager, it probably would have been for at least two years. That would have put them in a tough position this year to get Farrell. Do you really think Cherington would have dumped his pick, Sveum, for Farrell--even though Farrell was their original first choice? I think not. The result would probably have been no championship. Ben fared remarkably well through all this. I hope he doesn't screw it up this year, though no one really is expecting a repeat--it doesn't happen these days. But they can still be serious contenders--obviously. One mistake he can make is to show too much loyalty to the wrong players. He should know who the key players are that won a championship. The other thing he should do is to meld in the top young players--X, Middlebrooks, Bradley, maybe a young pitcher or two. Oddly enough, winning a championship has bought him the opportunity to give the younger guys more opportunity.

[jung]

If Cherington had gotten his way last year, and signed Sveum as manager, it probably would have been for at least two years. That would have put them in a tough position this year to get Farrell. Do you really think Cherington would have dumped his pick, Sveum, for Farrell--even though Farrell was their original first choice? I think not. The result would probably have been no championship.

 

 

Just another serendipitous event on the way to the miracle that was the 2013 team.

[Bellhorn04]

If Cherington had gotten his way last year, and signed Sveum as manager, it probably would have been for at least two years. That would have put them in a tough position this year to get Farrell. Do you really think Cherington would have dumped his pick, Sveum, for Farrell--even though Farrell was their original first choice? I think not. The result would probably have been no championship.

 

Well, if we're going to go back and guess at things like this, I think Cherington wanted Farrell badly all along and would have dumped Sveum to get him this year.

[jung]

I was thinking the same thing Bell. I think he would have dumped him too if came to that. Not to say I feel strongly about it but if somebody had a gun to my head and forced me choose.....I think BC would have dumped him.

[marklmw]

It is easy to get off topic isn't it? Farrell and resigning Ellsbury.

[jung]

Doesn't matter since resigning Ells isn't even a topic. Its a myth....a fantasy

[marklmw]

Doesn't matter since resigning Ells isn't even a topic. Its a myth....a fantasy

 

All this plus it does not make good business sense with JBJ in the wings.

[Dojji]

All this plus it does not make good business sense with JBJ in the wings.

 

I hate this kind of thinking. When healthy, Ellsbury is vastly superior to JBJ. JBJ has the potential to become not a bad little player at all, but he simply does not even approach Ellsbury's dynamism, even leaving 2011 entirely out of the picture.

 

A healthy Ellsbury is one of the fastest and most prolific speed players in the league. JBJ isn't going to be leading the league in anything, especially not his rookie campaign. that doesn't automatically mean bring Ellsbury back, but if you don't, you'd better have a way to replace the wins Ellsbury gave you that JBJ won't, figured out.

[jung]

I don't think JBJ will be another Ells even when after he grows into the job. Just a different kind of player I think. I also think that BC is one of the most pragmatic GM's there is....maybe one of the most pragmatic GM's there is ever going to be. Somebody is going to give Ells a ton a' years at a ton a' money and I just don't see BC doing that.

 

The thing the PA has not as yet figured but still gropes for is some CBA formula that drives the money deeper into the ML rosters. Seemingly no matter how much money there is, it virtually all gets distributed to the top guys. Ells is one of those and somebody is going to pay him like that. I think the gap between whatever that final figure ends up being and what the Sox will pay will just end up being too great.

[SoxSport]

Just another serendipitous event on the way to the miracle that was the 2013 team.

 

Sure. But Ben had a plan signing all those "role" players, and it worked. That wasn't the whole story--Farrell, Nieves and the pitching were another big part.

[SoxSport]

I hate this kind of thinking. When healthy, Ellsbury is vastly superior to JBJ. JBJ has the potential to become not a bad little player at all, but he simply does not even approach Ellsbury's dynamism, even leaving 2011 entirely out of the picture.

 

A healthy Ellsbury is one of the fastest and most prolific speed players in the league. JBJ isn't going to be leading the league in anything, especially not his rookie campaign. that doesn't automatically mean bring Ellsbury back, but if you don't, you'd better have a way to replace the wins Ellsbury gave you that JBJ won't, figured out.

 

I'd be shocked if they gave Ells anywhere close to Crawford money. And that's what Boras will try to get. Of course, everybody knows Crawford is vastly overpaid. That showed in his efforts to sell Bourne--a similar type of player.

[jung]

If Henry has any brains at all he won't let BC out of sight. Very lucky to have him.

[marklmw]

I hate this kind of thinking. When healthy, Ellsbury is vastly superior to JBJ. JBJ has the potential to become not a bad little player at all, but he simply does not even approach Ellsbury's dynamism, even leaving 2011 entirely out of the picture.

 

A healthy Ellsbury is one of the fastest and most prolific speed players in the league. JBJ isn't going to be leading the league in anything, especially not his rookie campaign. that doesn't automatically mean bring Ellsbury back, but if you don't, you'd better have a way to replace the wins Ellsbury gave you that JBJ won't, figured out.

 

Easy now. I am an Ellsbury fan ... love the guy ... I think he is going to hit 20 HR's next year. If the Sox did not have JBJ in the wings I am sure that we would sign him. You said it best "When Healthy" I know that Ellsbury's injuries were real and not his fault but he has been prone to injuries and the healing process slows with age. I think JBJ will be a pleasant surprise to you next season. Solid D, with a decent OBP and around 12 HR's. From an offensive standpoint a full season of Bogaerts and an improved Middlebrooks will fill the loss of Ellsbury's offensive production and then some. You may not think much of JBJ but obviously the FO does and at the end of the day that is all that matters. The Ownership team knows what they are doing ... they delivered a 3rd WS Championship in a 10 year period.

[jung]

The ownership team "appears" to have learned to keep its nose out of Baseball Operations. I do think BC knows what he is doing and deserves the faith of both ownership and the fan base IMO.

 

Almost amazing that BC stayed with one organization so long without rising to the top job earlier. However he is now in the unique position of knowing this organization like the back of his hand, knowing every job there is in Baseball Operations and having personally witnessed every banana peel they slipped on over all these years. We are very lucky to have him I think.

[mvp 78]

When healthy, Grady Sizemore was a great player too.

[seabeachfred]

The ownership team "appears" to have learned to keep its nose out of Baseball Operations. I do think BC knows what he is doing and deserves the faith of both ownership and the fan base IMO.

 

Almost amazing that BC stayed with one organization so long without rising to the top job earlier. However he is now in the unique position of knowing this organization like the back of his hand, knowing every job there is in Baseball Operations and having personally witnessed every banana peel they slipped on over all these years. We are very lucky to have him I think.

 

I don't know how that came about but somehow Henry sent the word out that Lucchino was to worry about the business end of it and keep his palsied hands out of baseball operations.....it was in good enough hands with Cherington and Farrell in control. If you run back over the years every time Lucchino tried to meddle in the baseball end of it some bad s*** happened. He needs to be handcuffed to his office and kept there.

[Dojji]

That said of course, Lucchino is very good at the sort of thing he should be doing. That's one of the reasons that this team is one of the most lucrative in the league despite playing in, like, the #10 market.

 

It's just that the list of things Lucky should be doing does not include the baseball roster.

[redsoxrules]

I hate this kind of thinking. When healthy, Ellsbury is vastly superior to JBJ. JBJ has the potential to become not a bad little player at all, but he simply does not even approach Ellsbury's dynamism, even leaving 2011 entirely out of the picture.

 

A healthy Ellsbury is one of the fastest and most prolific speed players in the league. JBJ isn't going to be leading the league in anything, especially not his rookie campaign. that doesn't automatically mean bring Ellsbury back, but if you don't, you'd better have a way to replace the wins Ellsbury gave you that JBJ won't, figured out.

 

Ellsbury's 50 SB seasons are coming to an end. Unless Ells finds the power again from 2011 he will be useless in 3-4 years from now. That's to much of a gamble to throw 6-7 years for him.

[mvp 78]

I don't know how that came about but somehow Henry sent the word out that Lucchino was to worry about the business end of it and keep his palsied hands out of baseball operations.....it was in good enough hands with Cherington and Farrell in control. If you run back over the years every time Lucchino tried to meddle in the baseball end of it some bad s*** happened. He needs to be handcuffed to his office and kept there.

 

Really? You were calling him a great baseball man a few years ago.

[marklmw]

It’s not clear how hitting fewer home runs helped the team or made Ellsbury a more effective leadoff man. His doubles also decreased substantially, from 46 in 2011 to 31 in 2013.

 

“The fact of the matter is, Jacoby Ellsbury’s compensation is going to be based on all five of his tools [and] his slugging overall, not the fact that he hits 15 home runs or 25 home runs,’’ Boras said. “The fact is, in today’s game, having players that are that skilled at that position create value, not just power alone. He hits a ball into the gap, it’s a double, and if he hits the ball out and does it 18 times as opposed to 10 times, I’m not sure it has any difference in his value.’’

 

What should add value, Boras contended, is this:

 

“Being a world champion, obviously, not once but twice, says a lot about who you are in a locker room, who you are on a team, your ability to play in a major market,” Boras said. “All those things play into a very different evaluation.”

 

Boras is hilarious ... saying there is no difference if Jacoby hits 15 or 25 HR's ... this is like the world today when evidence shows that the earth is cooling so they change the framing from global warming to climate change.

Edited November 17, 2013 by marklmw

[jacksonianmarch]

He's being a lawyer. When representing Ellsbury, he'll talk about how the HR's aren't important. When representing Choo, he'll talk about how good it is to hit 20HRs. The guy is great at what he does

[sk7326]

The compatibility argument all the way up the line was probably a key factor. The dysfunctionality last year was about the FO and the coaches vs the manager, as well as some of the players vs the manager. It was really the FO vs manager, with the coaches and the players taking both sides. valentine never had a chance in that environment. But he walked away happy with $6 million in his pocket.

 

If Cherington had gotten his way last year, and signed Sveum as manager, it probably would have been for at least two years. That would have put them in a tough position this year to get Farrell. Do you really think Cherington would have dumped his pick, Sveum, for Farrell--even though Farrell was their original first choice? I think not. The result would probably have been no championship. Ben fared remarkably well through all this. I hope he doesn't screw it up this year, though no one really is expecting a repeat--it doesn't happen these days. But they can still be serious contenders--obviously. One mistake he can make is to show too much loyalty to the wrong players. He should know who the key players are that won a championship. The other thing he should do is to meld in the top young players--X, Middlebrooks, Bradley, maybe a young pitcher or two. Oddly enough, winning a championship has bought him the opportunity to give the younger guys more opportunity.

 

If Sveum did a poor job, it would have been an easy choice. After all, Bobby was ownership's choice - so he'd have been even harder to fire than Sveum. But Bobby made it easy for them. Farrell became the obvious choice due to the team's affinity from back in the day along with Toronto not exactly unwilling to make a change. Cherington got some power due to 2012, and I think some validation for the way they did things under the previous leadership ... enough to steer the ship in that way more or less.

 

If healthy, this team is a contender next season (like the outlook this spring largely). You don't predict repeats in baseball - because it is just a very fluky game, and you have to WAY ahead of the rest of the league (like the 1998-2000 Yankees) to really be able to exert that sort of mojo. The best team doesn't win the title quite frequently (unlike say the NBA), and teams can be materially better with lesser results (like the 2013 Orioles). As Billy Beane noted, a GM can only create a team that can get to the playoffs - after that, it's largely up to the 25 guys to figure it out.

[sk7326]

Sure. But Ben had a plan signing all those "role" players, and it worked. That wasn't the whole story--Farrell, Nieves and the pitching were another big part.

 

He signed a lot of guys he knew. Farrell, Lovullo, Beyeler were all in the organization the last few years. Butterfield came from Toronto, but one of the top defensive instructors in the league. Nieves was an interesting hire, but a sensible one for Farrell. He worked under Don Cooper - who is one of the best pitching coaches around, and Farrell did not need to outsource that job entirely. There was room to show a guy the ropes there.

 

For what its worth - I think Ben's plan B if Farrell didn't work out (if I recall, signing Lovullo and then hiring an old pro like Gene Lamont to hang around for a year or two) would have also been solid.

[SimplyMarie]

I doubt we see Jacoby back next year. I would not go more than 5/20..but it will be interesting to see what the Sox do.

[marklmw]

I doubt we see Jacoby back next year. I would not go more than 5/20..but it will be interesting to see what the Sox do.

 

It really does not make a lot of sense to sign Ellsbury when you have JBJ. JBJ will not give you what Ellsbury will in 2014 but he will be a solid player for 500K vs. 20M. The Sox have a real possibility of replacing Ellsbury's offensive production with an improved WMB at 3rd and Bogaerts at Short. 2014: JBJ & Bogaerts & Middlebrooks > or = 2013: Ellsbury & Drew & Holt/Snyder/Middlebrooks/Bogaerts.

[seabeachfred]

It really does not make a lot of sense to sign Ellsbury when you have JBJ. JBJ will not give you what Ellsbury will in 2014 but he will be a solid player for 500K vs. 20M. The Sox have a real possibility of replacing Ellsbury's offensive production with an improved WMB at 3rd and Bogaerts at Short. 2014: JBJ & Bogaerts & Middlebrooks > or = 2013: Ellsbury & Drew & Holt/Snyder/Middlebrooks/Bogaerts.

 

Some team will offer Ellsbury the moon and he will be a far gone as barf in a breeze. He wants the money, Boras wants the money, and whoever is willing to sign him has the money. We have it too but we're not going to fork over that kind of cash for him when apparently the Red Sox have decided to go with Jackie Bradley Jr. in CF next season. I have an old straw hat in the garage that's made out of saltine cookies, and it is now very crumbly looking and stale; have had it for five years. I promise I will try eating it if Ells signs with us. Won't happen.

[sk7326]

Some team will offer Ellsbury the moon and he will be a far gone as barf in a breeze. He wants the money, Boras wants the money, and whoever is willing to sign him has the money. We have it too but we're not going to fork over that kind of cash for him when apparently the Red Sox have decided to go with Jackie Bradley Jr. in CF next season. I have an old straw hat in the garage that's made out of saltine cookies, and it is now very crumbly looking and stale; have had it for five years. I promise I will try eating it if Ells signs with us. Won't happen.

 

Ellsbury wants a life changing deal - Boras is the best in the business at delivering one. If Ellsbury wants to take a little less to stay with Boston, it's his prerogative, but I do not expect him to order Boras to go in that direction.

[jung]

I can't admire BC's pragmatism on the one hand and then expect him to swim against a tide that must flow that way in his own mind on the other. At the end of the day that is likely what will create a gap in what the Sox offer and what Ells and Boras can get in the open market. Plus for an agent, any reduction in the player's salary probably hits him harder than it hits the player in terms of how the agent views it versus how the player views it. Clearly the agent must adhere to the player's wishes. But the chance of Boras "recommending" that Ells take less money from anybody is likely none and none...let alone slim and none.

[Dojji]

Gonna be laughing my head off next year when Ellsbury and JBJ are both on the roster at the expense of one of Gomes and Nava.