Should we resign Jacoby Ellsbury?

[User Name]

The free market sets value sort of ... but that neglects the winner's curse of the auction, which Bell described. The team that wins the auction by definition overpays compared to the market. Now, it's not my money - and if the owners want to pocket the money saved from not signing Ellsbury then bleep them, obviously. But this team's history financially has not been anything to worry about on that front. If you let Ells and Drew walk, you can source 3 of the 8 positions for less than $2M TOTAL. For that money, what can the team do? That is the key.

 

Not necessarily. Sometimes a player will: A) Take less money to stay with a club he prefers (rare) B ) Choose between several similar offers based on something other than total financial package, a la Beltran in 2005.

[rorschach]

I really hope we keep him, I don't have a whole lot of confidence in JBJ at the plate as a everyday CF.

[jung]

During the WS broadcasters were suggesting the Ells family was saying they think Boston is he best place for him and have been telling him that. Frankly I think in his case that is the same thing as saying that if Boston were to match the highest offer he gets he would stay. I think that is about as close to a hometown discount as Ells is going to give....not forcing the Sox to beat the highest offer he gets. That is still sounding like the way long green to me. I guess we will know when we know.

[sk7326]

Not necessarily. Sometimes a player will: A) Take less money to stay with a club he prefers (rare) B ) Choose between several similar offers based on something other than total financial package, a la Beltran in 2005.

 

There are exceptions ... but the larger case is generally fairly true. This doesn't mean that free agency is a bad idea and we all have to turn into Tampa Bay ... clearly nobody is starving here. But you want a deal to encompass a good amount of "peak" ... since you are paying a premium to outbid somebody and the contract will have negative future value at some point most likely.

[User Name]

There are exceptions ... but the larger case is generally fairly true. This doesn't mean that free agency is a bad idea and we all have to turn into Tampa Bay ... clearly nobody is starving here. But you want a deal to encompass a good amount of "peak" ... since you are paying a premium to outbid somebody and the contract will have negative future value at some point most likely.

 

This is also not completely true, since not all talent commands bidding wars between teams. Free Agency, as a whole, cannot be encompassed so simply.

[marklmw]

During the WS broadcasters were suggesting the Ells family was saying they think Boston is he best place for him and have been telling him that. Frankly I think in his case that is the same thing as saying that if Boston were to match the highest offer he gets he would stay. I think that is about as close to a hometown discount as Ells is going to give....not forcing the Sox to beat the highest offer he gets. That is still sounding like the way long green to me. I guess we will know when we know.

 

The problem with the Ellsbury situation to many fans on this forum is his agent. Not too many feel that he will sign with Boston if Boston is not the highest /best offer. Maybe he shouldn't. I think that there is more long term value to play your entire career with one club especially when you are winning championships. Players like Yaz, Williams, Rice ... Pedroia own Boston and have many opportunities when their playing days are over. You cannot blame Ellsbury if he took the best deal on the table .... $ per season and # of Years. He was a big big part of 2 championships now.

[jung]

As somebody already posted, Seattle would likely be trying to make a play for Ells in a big way....They would love to bring him up to the Pacific Northwest for a bunch of years and do the whole face of the franchise bit.

 

I am totally convinced that the Sox will make a major play for Ells and will even offer serious numbers even with JBJ waiting in the wings. At the same time I think the odds are pretty slim that they even end up the second highest bidder for him.

 

Not sure the the enhanced chance at more rings will mean much to Ells when compared to getting paid. He has two. How many guys play an entire career and never even get the chance.

[redsoxrules]

If Ellsbury really wants to stay on this team he'll do like Pedey and take a home town discount. That's the only way he's staying on this team

[seabeachfred]

If this is true ... (take everything Boras says with a grain of salt). What is the reason that 11 teams are contacting him about Ellsbury ... all of these teams know what it will take to sign him. People say that Ellsbury will not give any concessions to Boston I say ********. I think Ellsbury stays with Boston for 20M per. I think he will stay in Boston for 6 years vs. signing with another club for 7. I think Ellsbury had a lot of fun playing for Boston this season. If he is enjoying his place of work it often means the whole family is happy too. I do not know about his personal life but I am assuming that he is married. Most couples sit down when making big decisions and when you are happy change becomes more uncertain. Ellsbury is coming back 120M / 6. Hanrahan and Bailey cost the Sox 11M+ this season for nothing ... the Sox would have had more wins if the 2 never played a game.

 

You make a very good case Mark, full of sound logic and intelligence. Unfortunately you are wrong for two reasons. One is Boras. To him it's always the money. And second, Ellsbury has shown no inclination of wanting to stay in Boston. Otherwise preliminary talks would have heated up by now. Sorry but he's as good as gone. If somehow you are right let me know when it happens and I will issue a mea culpa along with an apology.

[vjcsmoke]

If Ellsbury really wants to stay on this team he'll do like Pedey and take a home town discount. That's the only way he's staying on this team

 

Yup, if he took an 8/110 deal like Pedroia did, he would remain in Boston for a long time. But with Boras his agent I very much doubt that would happen.

[BSN07]

I am setting the over under of total dollars given to Ellsbury at $120 million. I am gonna take the over. Who's with me?

 

I will. I'm betting Boras gets a Crawford type deal for Ells. Seattle has money to burn and needs offense bad, two of Boras's favorite situations. Maybe another team sneaks in, but my money is on Seattle.

[sk7326]

Yup, if he took an 8/110 deal like Pedroia did, he would remain in Boston for a long time. But with Boras his agent I very much doubt that would happen.

 

It is not likely - although you have the causation backwards. Boras works for him.

[marklmw]

The free market sets value sort of ... but that neglects the winner's curse of the auction, which Bell described. The team that wins the auction by definition overpays compared to the market. Now, it's not my money - and if the owners want to pocket the money saved from not signing Ellsbury then bleep them, obviously. But this team's history financially has not been anything to worry about on that front. If you let Ells and Drew walk, you can source 3 of the 8 positions for less than $2M TOTAL. For that money, what can the team do? That is the key.

 

When you think about it more we can source out 5 positions for 10M ... Center, Left, SS, 3B, C and to take things further we can deal Peavy and Dempster for prospects and probably fund the these 5 positions with money left over from the savings of Peavy and Dempster assuming the Sox will need to eat part of their salaries. We will also be taking Hanrahan and Bailey off the books ... savings = 11M. In the end the Sox can come in 2014 below the 2013 payroll.

Edited November 3, 2013 by marklmw

[jung]

The Sox have Bailey for one more year...Don't they????

[vjcsmoke]

The Sox have Bailey for one more year...Don't they????

 

I believe we have a team option on Bailey for 2014. But I don't know if we're going to pick it up.

 

http://blog.masslive.com/redsoxmonster/2013/06/boston_red_sox_2013_it_is_near.html

 

When it comes to Ellsbury, ultimately pricetag/length of contract and who can we replace him with. Those are going to be the main factors on whether he stays or goes.

[Behindenemylines]

If Ellsbury really wants to stay on this team he'll do like Pedey and take a home town discount. That's the only way he's staying on this team

 

I agree! I don't think its the $$$$ as much as it is the years. Ellsbury and Boras are going to want 6 or 7 years at some number around 20 mil a season. For the Sox the 20 mil a year wouldn't be the problem, but they would only want it for three years. So I would say that its 95% certain that Ellsbury has played his last game for the Sox. Being part of two championship teams Ellsbury will always have a place in the hearts of Red Sox Nation.

[redsoxrules]

Aside from the mvp season, Ells has mediocre numbers offensively.

[User Name]

In fairness however, his numbers were not mediocre this season. A 114 OPS+ is at least above average.

[SoxFanForsyth]

In fairness however, his numbers were not mediocre this season. A 114 OPS+ is at least above average.

 

Plus, combined with his defense and base running, he's an extremely valuable player (5.8 fwar this year)

[User Name]

Plus, combined with his defense and base running, he's an extremely valuable player (5.8 fwar this year)

 

RSR was specifically talking about offensive numbers though.

[sk7326]

Aside from the mvp season, Ells has mediocre numbers offensively.

 

Depends on what you call mediocre and if you are considering position. Ells was excellent this season ... ultimately if he could guarantee us 6 of THESE seasons, I'd pay his asking price. The odds of that are pretty low.

[Dojji]

Aside from the mvp season, Ells has mediocre numbers offensively.

 

 

Why, no, no he hasn't. He's had a couple great seasons, and several OK to good seasons, one lost season, and one bad season in 2012 which was cut short by injury.

[marklmw]

RSR was specifically talking about offensive numbers though.

 

But there lies the problem ... Center Field is a extremely important defensive and especially when playing at Fenway ... just ask any MLP pitcher.

[User Name]

But there lies the problem ... Center Field is a extremely important defensive and especially when playing at Fenway ... just ask any MLP pitcher.

 

No problem lies. He was valuable even from an offense-only standpoint, which was the point of my post.

[marklmw]

No problem lies. He was valuable even from an offense-only standpoint, which was the point of my post.

 

The problem did not lie with your post ... it lied with the post that was replied to ... to talk about any player without taking both his offensive and defensive assets into consideration is a failed argument.

[redsoxrules]

Carl Crawford at the time the Sox signed him that contract has about the same numbers Ells currently has. Do you really want to break the bank on Ells like they did on Crawford? Crawfords speed is allready slowing down and this will happen to Ells very soon. I wouldn't go past a 5 year deal with Ells. Take away Ellsburys mvp season and his season averages is not even close to CC. If some teams wants to give him 7/130 then he's gone. It's too much of a big risk. I'd be fine with 5/ 85 ish Edited November 4, 2013 by redsoxrules

[vjcsmoke]

When comparing Ellsbury to JBJ, the comparision is made offensively because... JBJ is a ++ defensive prospect. I don't believe you will see much dropoff at all between JBJ and Ellsbury defensively. In fact JBJ might have the advantage because he is younger. Might have more range and legs to him. Although Ellsbury has the experience edge, I think JBJ can learn to play Fenway. You can't teach the physical defensive tools he already has though.

 

JBJ Defensive Player of the Year 2012:

http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/baseball/372504-jackie-bradley-jr-defensive-player-year.html

 

 

Baseball prospectus scouting report:

"A natural center fielder, Bradley displays a high level of grace and fluidity when manning his position. His instincts allow him to move with the crack of the bat, giving him above-average-to-better range despite only average speed. Bradley hunts down balls in the outfield, making difficult plays look easy and hauling in chances that most outfielders don’t. His well-above-average defense is capped off by a plus arm, making him one of the top, if not the top, overall outfield defenders I’ve seen in the last handful of seasons in the minors."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20062

 

In short, the worries about JBJ's bat may or may not be justified, but I don't see any reason to worry about his glove in center field.

[marklmw]

When comparing Ellsbury to JBJ, the comparision is made offensively because... JBJ is a ++ defensive prospect. I don't believe you will see much dropoff at all between JBJ and Ellsbury defensively. In fact JBJ might have the advantage because he is younger. Might have more range and legs to him. Although Ellsbury has the experience edge, I think JBJ can learn to play Fenway. You can't teach the physical defensive tools he already has though.

 

JBJ Defensive Player of the Year 2012:

http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/baseball/372504-jackie-bradley-jr-defensive-player-year.html

 

 

Baseball prospectus scouting report:

"A natural center fielder, Bradley displays a high level of grace and fluidity when manning his position. His instincts allow him to move with the crack of the bat, giving him above-average-to-better range despite only average speed. Bradley hunts down balls in the outfield, making difficult plays look easy and hauling in chances that most outfielders don’t. His well-above-average defense is capped off by a plus arm, making him one of the top, if not the top, overall outfield defenders I’ve seen in the last handful of seasons in the minors."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20062

 

In short, the worries about JBJ's bat may or may not be justified, but I don't see any reason to worry about his glove in center field.

VJC ... you and I think alike on the Sox. I was a big fan of Ellsbury but I have listened to the many arguments made on here and since then my enthusiasm for re-signing Jacoby has lessened considerably. I think that JBJ could come in and play CF and bat at the back of the lineup. I would like to have Vic lead off and Dustin move to the 2 spot ... he hits to right as good as any player and Vic should have no trouble going first to third. I hope to see Ortiz, Bogaerts, or Nava batting in the 3 hole. If we do not re-sign Ellsbury I think it makes acquiring Tanaka all the more important both short and long term. Long term in baseball is 3+ years out.

[BSN07]

If he signs a big deal to stay with Boston the site will melt first injury he gets haha

 

I'd love to see him stay and probably could stomach the risk of a BJ Upton deal but if it goes past 5 years I'm really skeptical. If St. Louis can lose Pujols and keep truckin, I'm sure the Red Sox can survive losing Ellsbury.

[Dojji]

Carl Crawford at the time the Sox signed him that contract has about the same numbers Ells currently has.

 

And if he'd held those numbers that contract would be defensible.