Mike Napoli performance thread.

[rjortiz]

I go 3/45 with Drew and don't even think about it very hard. A shortstop as solid as he is on both sides of the ball gets paid. THere's no point trying to be penny wise and pound foolish at shortstop.

 

He's projected to finish at 2.7 WAR. The team that goes 3/45 would have to believe he'd be better in 2014. You could make that argument if you discounted his early season struggles. However, I think that brings up his injury history. He isn't exactly an iron man. He also finished below replacement level in 2012, which has to give some teams some pause for concern.

 

Yeah, was already fixing that when you posted I meant $15M/year. The market tends to be very kind to good two-way shortstops since they're really hard to find.

 

Who do you have in mind? Are you talking about the SS's who have actually reached free agency? The ones that stand out are Rollins at 3/33, Furcal at 3/30, and Reyes at 6/106.

[rjortiz]

You have to realize that roughly 25 teams can afford a 3/39 player. This isn't a huge amount of money in the big picture. Remember when Seattle signed Chone Figgins to a 4/36 deal? Drew isn't only going to appeal to the top spenders. He'll appeal to almost every single team with a gap at SS, and maybe even desperate teams looking for 2B/3B.

 

Figgins isn't a good comparison. He wasn't a SS, has entirely different skills, and didn't have a QO offer attached to him. Figgins didn't have a stellar injury history, but I don't think it's nearly as questionable as Drew's.

 

Also, 25 teams can probably afford 3/39, but that doesn't mean that 25 teams are going to be interested. Who really has a gaping hole at SS, and expects to contend next year? Drew makes no sense for a team that is rebuilding. The only possible options I see are the Yankees, Cardinals, and maybe Seattle as a dark horse.

[sk7326]

Infield could be a radical change next year - could also be fairly modest. Middlebrooks I think is safe at 3B. He is not September Will good - few are - but he is at least as capable as he was in his 2012 tour. He can be an above average 3B with below average on base skills but good power - which is a solid starter. Bogaerts has a 50-50 chance to win the starting job - and I think the Sox might be committed to it. Hard thing to project is his body, but we already knew that. 1B is the position I worry about the least - easiest job opening to fill, no reason you can't find an average guy or a good platoon without breaking the bank.

[sk7326]

Drew will get years from somebody - shortstop is a terrible position in the bigs these days (though lot of fascinating names on the farm like Lindor, Russell). After all Drew's 3 win season is going to put him 5th in the AL among non-peralta SS's and with a 20 game disadvantage. Drew has rebuilt his value and the industry is drowning in money ... the decision on him is all about organizational priorities - and I'd really rather not block Bogaerts. Also, the possibility of Drew taking a QO is significant - large enough that I am not sure I'd want to do it considering the variables.

[rjortiz]

Drew will get years from somebody - shortstop is a terrible position in the bigs these days (though lot of fascinating names on the farm like Lindor, Russell). After all Drew's 3 win season is going to put him 5th in the AL among non-peralta SS's and with a 20 game disadvantage. Drew has rebuilt his value and the industry is drowning in money ... the decision on him is all about organizational priorities - and I'd really rather not block Bogaerts. Also, the possibility of Drew taking a QO is significant - large enough that I am not sure I'd want to do it considering the variables.

 

Even with the QO?

[sk7326]

Even with the QO?

 

With a QO, it becomes interesting - it could severely hamper his market. At the same time, I am not sure the Red Sox would want him accepting it - not if they really want to give Bogaerts a spin. If Drew accepts, the Red Sox have a $14 million (last year was $13.3M, so just a guess on the value of it this year) guy signed - and probably a tough contract to deal. (like what the Braves had to do with Rafael Soriano).

[rjortiz]

With a QO, it becomes interesting - it could severely hamper his market. At the same time, I am not sure the Red Sox would want him accepting it - not if they really want to give Bogaerts a spin. If Drew accepts, the Red Sox have a $14 million (last year was $13.3M, so just a guess on the value of it this year) guy signed - and probably a tough contract to deal. (like what the Braves had to do with Rafael Soriano).

 

Would the Red Sox even be allowed to trade Drew? I can't find it in the rule book, but I read on fangraphs that sign-and-trades aren't allowed. I also read that Tim Dierkes, from MLBTR, said that MLB would view it as collusion.

 

Looking back at 2012, you can see the impact the QO had on contracts. There were players that were easy QO offers, because they were going to get more than 1/13, but Drew isn't one of those players. He fits more in the category of Bourn, Lohse, Soriano, and LaRoche. They all signed below expectations, and they all had a very low number of interested suitors. Actually, I think they only had one interested suitor for each of them. Lohse had the Brewers. LaRoche had no other choice but the Nationals. The Nationals were Soriano's only interested team. The Mets were interested in Bourn, but they balked at surrendering the 11th pick. Compare them to the players without QO's attached.

Edited September 9, 2013 by rjortiz

[sk7326]

Would the Red Sox even be allowed to trade Drew? I can't find it in the rule book, but I read on fangraphs that sign-and-trades aren't allowed. I also read that Tim Dierkes, from MLBTR, said that MLB would view it as collusion.

 

Looking back at 2012, you can see the impact the QO had on contracts. There were players that were easy QO offers, because they were going to get more than 1/13, but Drew isn't one of those players. He fits more in the category of Bourn, Lohse, Soriano, and LaRoche. They all signed below expectations, and they all had a very low number of interested suitors. Actually, I think they only had one interested suitor for each of them. Lohse had the Brewers. LaRoche had no other choice but the Nationals. The Nationals were Soriano's only interested team. The Mets were interested in Bourn, but they balked at surrendering the 11th pick. Compare them to the players without QO's attached.

 

I thought that might have been true about sign and trades ... but I could not find anything online. I think the QO would make it hard for Drew to find another suitor - which is why he would undoubtedly accept his 1 year/14M. If the Red Sox - the luxury tax conscious Sox - are cool with paying $14M for a potential part timer, then the decision is easy. But I don't think that is a simple decision at all. My guess is he WON'T get extended a QO, and that the front office had planned for this to be a marriage of convenience all along. There is enough of a chance Drew will not get the QO on the market - and limiting his market does not actually get anything accomplished for anybody.

[rjortiz]

The only scenario the Red Sox offer Drew a QO is if they want him at SS. I assume they'd slide Bogaerts to 3B and Middlebrooks to 1B. I don't see how that makes them any better. Probably makes them worse.

 

The QO is just too big a gamble. They would have to hope that the Yankees or Jeter move on, or that Cardinals do something against their MO. Who knows? Seattle might be dumb enough to do it, but that's still a big risk. I'd rather sign Peralta. No draft pick loss, and likely to be cheaper.

[a700hitter]

Bogarts looks to have good hands, good range,a strong arm and a quick release. There's no reason to move him to 3rd. Drew is a nice player, but he will have to find work elsewhere.

[VA Sox Fan]

Middlebrooks, Napoli are AL Players of the Week

 

Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff September 9, 2013 04:58 PM

 

 

Red Sox infielders Will Middlebrooks and Mike Napoli were named Co-Players of the Week in the American League.

 

Middlebrooks was 13 of 28 with a double, four home runs, nine RBIs, and eight runs in seven games. He led all major league hitters with 26 total bases.

 

Middlebrooks, who turned 25 Monday, has hit .368 with a 1.055 OPS in 26 games since being recalled from Triple A Pawtucket Aug. 10. His batting average has climbed from .192 to .245.

 

Napoli was 10 for 21 with four doubles, four home runs, and nine RBIs. His 1.143 slugging percentage led the majors.

 

This marks the second time this season Red Sox teammates were Co-Players of the Week. Napoli and righthander Andrew Bailey shared the award for the week ending April 21.

[rjortiz]

Seeing that we're on the topic of QO's, what's the opinion on the other eligible players? Only Ellsbury seems like an obvious choice.

 

I think the Red Sox are going to pursue McCann, so they may not want to be stuck with Saltalamacchia as a $14 million backup. Even if they don't, Saltalamacchia doesn't appear to have a strong market. Russell Martin only got 2/19. Who would pay more for Saltalamacchia? He's not a good defensive catcher, he's a liability against lefties, and his .359 BABIP is concerning. I could see the Yankees and Rangers show some interest, but I doubt they'll outbid 1/14, and lose a draft pick. I wouldn't make the offer, although being stuck with him at 1/14 isn't the end of the world.

 

We already talked about Drew, so that leaves Napoli. He's probably the most difficult to peg. I think they could get him at 2/20, especially given his hip condition. Having him at 1/14 isn't awful, but I'd rather they pursue Abreu. I don't see teams offering Napoli a lot of money, so they probably could get him around the qualifying offer without having to actually tender it.

[Palodios]

So who are these teams? And Drew's value diminishes significantly as a 3B, and he's played neither 2B nor 3B professionally. Let's stick to viable scenarios here. Give me some teams who would be possibly interested and also have the resources, because your idea that 25 out of the 30 MLB teams can afford to add 13 million on Drew is not grounded in reality.

 

Grounded in reality? Almost every major league team has gone for a mid-range free agent signing at some point. Besides the poorest of the MLB poor, almost every team could afford 3/30-3/40 contracts. Do I need to go through all of the biggest free agent signings from teams like Miami, Seattle, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Colorado?

 

Last offseason Boras was trying to sell Drew as more than just a shortstop. Based on his role with the Red Sox, it seems that he wants to stick at SS, but I don't think it would be out of the question to see him at 2B.

 

Kansas City is in win-now mode and could use a shortstop. The Angels may go for broke and replace Aybar after a mediocre season. The Yankees could very well make Jeter a full time DH. The Pirates might want to try to win themselves a fanbase.

 

The other factor is that GMs all across baseball will be looking at how the Red Sox rebuilt a team from nothing to a World Series champion, and will probably try to imitate the effective strategy of hitting on mid-range signings.

[sk7326]

Bogarts looks to have good hands, good range,a strong arm and a quick release. There's no reason to move him to 3rd. Drew is a nice player, but he will have to find work elsewhere.

 

X is a 6'2, 190 lb 20 year old ... I think any considerations of moving him are in the longer term. The question is whether he will get too big for the position - considering his frame there is a chance to get a lot stronger. It will be a challenge for him potentially to maintain the agility to be able to play SS at a decent level as his body fills out.

[sk7326]

Seeing that we're on the topic of QO's, what's the opinion on the other eligible players? Only Ellsbury seems like an obvious choice.

 

I think the Red Sox are going to pursue McCann, so they may not want to be stuck with Saltalamacchia as a $14 million backup. Even if they don't, Saltalamacchia doesn't appear to have a strong market. Russell Martin only got 2/19. Who would pay more for Saltalamacchia? He's not a good defensive catcher, he's a liability against lefties, and his .359 BABIP is concerning. I could see the Yankees and Rangers show some interest, but I doubt they'll outbid 1/14, and lose a draft pick. I wouldn't make the offer, although being stuck with him at 1/14 isn't the end of the world.

 

We already talked about Drew, so that leaves Napoli. He's probably the most difficult to peg. I think they could get him at 2/20, especially given his hip condition. Having him at 1/14 isn't awful, but I'd rather they pursue Abreu. I don't see teams offering Napoli a lot of money, so they probably could get him around the qualifying offer without having to actually tender it.

 

The prize for a declined QO is nice but not amazing now (a sandwich pick) - of the guys mentioned I'd expect only Ellsbury to get a QO, though Napoli is possible. The others to me are offers that are begging to be accepted. Salty I think the Sox work out a longer term deal - he is a useful catcher who could use a platoon partner but otherwise not bad - and honestly Swihart is a ways away and Lavarnway is better off reinventing himself as a DH-1B. Napoli at 1/14 would not be bad - a mild overpay but not a long term hitch.

[mvp 78]

X is a 6'2, 190 lb 20 year old ... I think any considerations of moving him are in the longer term. The question is whether he will get too big for the position - considering his frame there is a chance to get a lot stronger. It will be a challenge for him potentially to maintain the agility to be able to play SS at a decent level as his body fills out.

There are a bunch of tall SS's these days. Jeter. Cal.

[sk7326]

There are a bunch of tall SS's these days. Jeter. Cal.

 

Scouts in the industry seem optimistic that there is a 50/50 or better shot he can stay at SS, so I am optimistic. It's not the height that inspires curiosity so much as the possibility he could add 30 pounds of muscle on a still-developing body and whether THAT could make him more 3B than SS material. But I am optimistic that it will be a non-issue for a while at least and that his bad could by that time play at whichever position no problemo.

[seabeachfred]

A few ago I predicted that Napoli would get hot and start contributing to the cause but I did not think he would get this hot. He has absolutely been on fire and that is one reason I'm pissed off at Farrell, who I, as a few others on this board, think of as a poor field manager. With a day of today there was no reason to sit a hot hitter like Mike and then compound it by sitting Victorino as well. I think with both of those in the lineup yesterday the chances of us sweeping that Yankee series would be been increased considerably. Now having lose a game in the standings we face Price tomorrow and that is a tough game to win no matter how anyone looks at it. I just hope Farrell didn't pull another strategical blunder that will cost us the division if we start falling back.

[User Name]

Grounded in reality? Almost every major league team has gone for a mid-range free agent signing at some point. Besides the poorest of the MLB poor, almost every team could afford 3/30-3/40 contracts. Do I need to go through all of the biggest free agent signings from teams like Miami, Seattle, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Colorado?

 

Last offseason Boras was trying to sell Drew as more than just a shortstop. Based on his role with the Red Sox, it seems that he wants to stick at SS, but I don't think it would be out of the question to see him at 2B.

 

Kansas City is in win-now mode and could use a shortstop. The Angels may go for broke and replace Aybar after a mediocre season. The Yankees could very well make Jeter a full time DH. The Pirates might want to try to win themselves a fanbase.

 

The other factor is that GMs all across baseball will be looking at how the Red Sox rebuilt a team from nothing to a World Series champion, and will probably try to imitate the effective strategy of hitting on mid-range signings.

 

Small and mid-market teams don't go around handing contracts in the 40 million range just because. That's why it's unrealistic. There has to be a justifiable need for more than half the teams to spend that kind of dough. It'd be easier for you to go through the teams that can afford him than the ones who can't. You're massively overstating the spending power of most MLB teams. Massively.

[VA Sox Fan]

A few ago I predicted that Napoli would get hot and start contributing to the cause but I did not think he would get this hot. He has absolutely been on fire and that is one reason I'm pissed off at Farrell, who I, as a few others on this board, think of as a poor field manager. With a day of today there was no reason to sit a hot hitter like Mike and then compound it by sitting Victorino as well. I think with both of those in the lineup yesterday the chances of us sweeping that Yankee series would be been increased considerably. Now having lose a game in the standings we face Price tomorrow and that is a tough game to win no matter how anyone looks at it. I just hope Farrell didn't pull another strategical blunder that will cost us the division if we start falling back.

 

I figured there would be some concerns about sitting Vic and Naps yesterday. IMO, we had already won the series and we have some tough games coming up this week. So let them get their rest for the upcoming stretch. I wanted the sweep too but still trying to think about the next 17 games! Only 9 at home.

[rjortiz]

Grounded in reality? Almost every major league team has gone for a mid-range free agent signing at some point. Besides the poorest of the MLB poor, almost every team could afford 3/30-3/40 contracts. Do I need to go through all of the biggest free agent signings from teams like Miami, Seattle, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Colorado?

 

You should explain why they are relevant to their interest in Stephen Drew.

 

Last offseason Boras was trying to sell Drew as more than just a shortstop. Based on his role with the Red Sox, it seems that he wants to stick at SS, but I don't think it would be out of the question to see him at 2B.

 

How many players can you name sign big free agent contracts and immediately changed positions? Even if it might happen, are you saying the Red Sox should offer him a QO, because some team might have interest in him at 2B? Seems like a big risk.

 

Kansas City is in win-now mode and could use a shortstop. The Angels may go for broke and replace Aybar after a mediocre season. The Yankees could very well make Jeter a full time DH. The Pirates might want to try to win themselves a fanbase.

 

KC would have to commit 1/6 of their payroll to Drew. Committing that much money to players that aren't difference makers is a good way to continue being irrelevant. The Angels are not going to surrender the 11th-15th pick for someone like Drew. Might as well keep Aybar. They also have huge holes in their starting rotation. They probably won't have enough money to spend $14 million on a SS after upgrading their rotation. The Pirates would be in the same boat as the Royals, and Neal Huntington is too smart to punt a draft pick for Drew.

 

The other factor is that GMs all across baseball will be looking at how the Red Sox rebuilt a team from nothing to a World Series champion, and will probably try to imitate the effective strategy of hitting on mid-range signings.

 

The Red Sox situation doesn't really have a parallel next year. In order to apply the Red Sox strategy, a team would have to rank near the top in payroll, have a strong foundation that you wouldn't need a difference maker, and they would have had to recently clear $90 million in payroll that they could reinvest. That might happen in the future, but we're only focused on next year. There isn't a team that is remotely similar to the 2012-2013 Red Sox. The Phillies have Rollins, they don't have a lot of flexibility, and don't have near the foundation the Red Sox did going into the offseason. The Angels are already at $131,000,000 before arbitration, and their pitching is more of a concern. Let's actually look at every team and eliminate them:

 

Rays - Have Escobar, and they aren't committing 1/5th of their payroll for Drew

Orioles - They have Hardy

Yankees - Maybe, but way too many holes.

Rays - Already have Reyes

White Sox - Not going to compete, plus they have Ramirez

Royals - Drew would be 1/6th of their payroll, plus they have Escobar.

Twins - Not a strong bet to be competitive, plus holes all over the diamond.

Guardians - Cabrera

Tigers - Iglesias, probably reaching their limit in payroll anyway

Angels - Rotation and bullpen need a makeover, too much in payroll, and pick too high in the draft

Astros - Haha, next

Mariners - Bad FO might consider it.

Rangers - Andrus

A's - Payroll limits, plus Lowrie

Braves - Simmons

Nationals - Desmond

Phillies - Rollins

Mets - Broke, plus little chance at being competitive, also lot more pressing holes to fill

Marlins - Nope

Pirates - 1/5th of their payroll on Drew isn't happening

Brewers - Segura

Reds - Cosart, plus needs in CF and SP

Cubs - Castro

Cardinals - Not a lot of payroll flexibility, have to replace/extend Beltran, and they wouldn't even trade for Ramirez or Aybar at the deadline.

Dodgers - Ramirez

Padres - He'd represent a 1/5th of their payroll. Doesn't make them a contender

Diamondbacks - Gregorius, not enough room for Drew anyway

Rockies - Tulowitzki

Giants - Crawford

 

There's only three teams with a somewhat realistic chance at signing Drew. The Mariners aren't a big market team, and Drew is not going to make them contenders. If you count Drew, Morales, and arbitration eligible players that would put them pretty close to their 2013 payroll. If they only have Drew and Morales to show for their offseason signings, Zduriencik deserves to be executed. I'm open to the possibility, because he's going to QO Morales, but I wouldn't bet $14 million on Drew on this happening.

 

The Yankees are probably the most likely, but they have publicly stated their desire to get under the luxury tax. They'll be at $89 million before arbitration, and before they resign Cano. He's probably going to cost 8/200. That puts them at $114 million. Gardner, Robertson, Kelley, Nova, Cervelli, and Pineda are all arbitration eligible. $10-$12 million is probably a decent estimate for all of them. At $126 million. Before we fill any holes, you have to factor in the 1/30th share of player benefit costs that counts toward payroll. The $189 million luxury tax is really a $178 million cap. Adding $11 million more puts the Yankees at $137 million. Next, let's assume the Yankees want to pursue Drew. I assume they would buy Jeter out in that case. His buyout is $3 million. At $140 million. With that much payroll already committed, do you really believe the Yankees will spend $14 million on Stephen Drew? Let's assume they do. That would push them to $154 million. That leaves $24 million to fill the remaining holes at 3B, C, 1B/DH, 3/5ths of the rotation, and a few arms in the bullpen. I'm glad I looked at this closer. The Yankees are in serious financial trouble next year. They better pray that Rodriguez gets a two year ban, because they have no chance of filling out a competitive roster with him on the payroll. It really doesn't look that much better even with him off it.

 

That leaves the Cardinals. They're going to be around $95 million after arbitration. I also notice sites like Cots, and some Cardinals blogs don't factor in the 1/30th mandatory share. That pushes them to $106 million, before Beltran. Assuming they stay at $125 million, they could choose to keep Beltran in RF, or upgrade at SS. The Cardinals have built a strong farm system, and they didn't build it by giving up top prospects for non-impact players. Signing Drew at the cost of a pick would be extremely unusual for Mozeliak. They also would be hard pressed to make any other moves. I could see a fit here, but I don't think it's very likely. Adding Drew and subtracting Beltran is probably a lateral move.

 

Really, that's pretty much it. The other possible destinations you mentioned would be absolutely insane to invest that much in Drew. A qualifying offer should only be offered when you are sure he's going to get more, or if you want him back around that salary. Drew is a giant question mark going into free agency. The Red Sox should not risk $14 million on the slight chance that one of three teams does something idiotic.

Edited September 10, 2013 by rjortiz

[a700hitter]

I figured there would be some concerns about sitting Vic and Naps yesterday. IMO, we had already won the series and we have some tough games coming up this week. So let them get their rest for the upcoming stretch. I wanted the sweep too but still trying to think about the next 17 games! Only 9 at home.

I think Victorino could use a day off or two, because he is pretty banged up. I never like to sit a guy when he is red hot, and I don't like to sit too many guys on the same day. it would have been ideal to sit one on Sunday and the other on Tuesday, but with Price pitching on Tuesday it would be tough to let either of them sit out that game.

[rjortiz]

A few ago I predicted that Napoli would get hot and start contributing to the cause but I did not think he would get this hot. He has absolutely been on fire and that is one reason I'm pissed off at Farrell, who I, as a few others on this board, think of as a poor field manager. With a day of today there was no reason to sit a hot hitter like Mike and then compound it by sitting Victorino as well. I think with both of those in the lineup yesterday the chances of us sweeping that Yankee series would be been increased considerably. Now having lose a game in the standings we face Price tomorrow and that is a tough game to win no matter how anyone looks at it. I just hope Farrell didn't pull another strategical blunder that will cost us the division if we start falling back.

 

I haven't been a Red Sox fan for that long, but do most of them still assume the worst? I felt good when the Sox were only up two a month ago. I've already assumed we've won the division. They have a 7.5 game lead with less than a month to go. Fangraphs projects us at 99.7% probability of winning the division. Most books have stopped offering odds on the AL East, and some European books are already paying out bets on Boston. The Red Sox could go 4-13 the rest of the way, and the Rays would still have to go 13-7 to tie.

[VA Sox Fan]

I haven't been a Red Sox fan for that long, but do most of them still assume the worst? I felt good when the Sox were only up two a month ago. I've already assumed we've won the division. They have a 7.5 game lead with less than a month to go. Fangraphs projects us at 99.7% probability of winning the division. Most books have stopped offering odds on the AL East, and some European books are already paying out bets on Boston. The Red Sox could go 4-13 the rest of the way, and the Rays would still have to go 13-7 to tie.

 

A lot of us did prior to 2004 and 2007. I hope that's not the case any more. I know I don't always assume the worst. But after 2011/2012, it's understandable.

[Youk Of The Nation]

That's one reason I envy lifelong or older fans. I never really cared about baseball. I became a baseball and Red Sox fan in 2002 when my father took me to a game he got free tickets to. I fell in love with it all by the end of the game. The consequence of this, though, was that I had no chance to inure myself to disappointment. Yes, the very next season was an awful blow, but they were still in the ALCS. Last season was the first time in my mere decade of fandom that the Sox finished under .500. They'd missed the postseason in my first year as a fan, and a couple times since, but never as badly as 2012. Most fans had years of s***** or mediocre teams to remember and cushion the blow. I had ten straight seasons of, if not great, at least competitive baseball.

[a700hitter]

That's one reason I envy lifelong or older fans. I never really cared about baseball. I became a baseball and Red Sox fan in 2002 when my father took me to a game he got free tickets to. I fell in love with it all by the end of the game. The consequence of this, though, was that I had no chance to inure myself to disappointment. Yes, the very next season was an awful blow, but they were still in the ALCS. Last season was the first time in my mere decade of fandom that the Sox finished under .500. They'd missed the postseason in my first year as a fan, and a couple times since, but never as badly as 2012. Most fans had years of s***** or mediocre teams to remember and cushion the blow. I had ten straight seasons of, if not great, at least competitive baseball.

I have seen my share of crushing disappointments over 45 years of being a fan, but last year took the cake for prolonged torture and horrible baseball. Nothing that I have witnessed since 1967 prepared me for such a rotten year of baseball. Beginning in 1967, the franchise turned itself around and has had very few sub-.500 seasons since that season. Last year just and the 2011 collapse were groundbreaking in my fandom.

[Youk Of The Nation]

The 2011 meltdown was worse than letting the Yankees come back in 1978 and win the one-game playoff?

[a700hitter]

The 2011 meltdown was worse than letting the Yankees come back in 1978 and win the one-game playoff?

Yes, because day after day after day, you just knew that the team had no chance of winning in September 2011. The Rays weren't playing great ball. We were just horribly bad. The Sox had the worst September ever. In 1978, Zimmer wore out his guys and they went into an August slump. The Yankees (playing around .700 ball) were white hot while we were slumping. The Sox fell out of first in August, not September is my recollection. The Sox made a comeback in the last couple of weeks coming from about 3 games back to tie the Skanks on the last day. I think the 78 Sox won their last 7 or 8 games to force the playoff game. Losing the playoff game was rough, but living with the pain of a one game playoff loss or a short series loss was easier for me than the 30 day water torture of September 2011. I was nauseous almost every night about an hour before game time, because I knew that we were trotting real garbage to the mound every night.

[VA Sox Fan]

The 2011 meltdown was worse than letting the Yankees come back in 1978 and win the one-game playoff?

 

To me 1978 was much harder because we hadn't won in so long and what a hell of a come back!!!. Sept 2011 sucked ass big time though. And 2003 ALCS made me cry.

[sk7326]

I haven't been a Red Sox fan for that long, but do most of them still assume the worst? I felt good when the Sox were only up two a month ago. I've already assumed we've won the division. They have a 7.5 game lead with less than a month to go. Fangraphs projects us at 99.7% probability of winning the division. Most books have stopped offering odds on the AL East, and some European books are already paying out bets on Boston. The Red Sox could go 4-13 the rest of the way, and the Rays would still have to go 13-7 to tie.

 

I saw the Aaron Boone homerun - I saw the ball roll through Buckner's legs - and then lose Game 7 to boot! (as an 8 year old) There was Bucky Dent when I was too young to notice. When Boone hit the homerun it was the first time I thought they would NEVER win.

 

That said, that was all before two titles in 5 years, one in literally the sweetest way possible. Honestly after 2007 - and hell, the courageous almost comeback in 2008, I stopped having my summahs ruined. The collapse in 2011 was bad (and thank God I don't live in Boston anymore for something like that) but it is hard to have any sort of moral authority to whine anymore.

 

As Bob Ryan said, the last decade of sports in Boston is the good old days of the future for folks my age. It is hard to get that crushed or angered by the non-victories.