Bad Contracts Around MLB

[Orange Juiced]

There are some awful ones, to be sure. Like Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard.

 

But how about Pujols? Legendary player, first-ballot HOFer. But look at his trend:

 

Year - OPS - OPS+

2008 - 1.114 - 192

2009 - 1.101 - 189

2010 - 1.011 - 173

2011 - 0.906 - 148

2012 - 0.859 - 140

2013 - 0.767 - 116

 

So unbelievable numbers from 2008-2010. Good numbers from 2011-2012. Still above average numbers in 2013 (116 ops+ is not bad, though for a 1b it's not ideal). But (a) look at the trend - no year are those numbers going up; and ( look at the remaining contract:

 

Year - Age - Owed

2014 - 34 - $23 m

2015 - 35 - $24 m

2016 - 36 - $25 m

2017 - 37 - $26 m

2018 - 38 - $27 m

2019 - 39 - $28 m

2020 - 40 - $29 m

2021 - 41 - $30 m

 

That's right folks. At the rate he's declining, by 2015 he'll have an ops+ under 100, which means by then he'll be a below-average hitter. Not just below average for a first baseman or DH. Below average, period. And the Angels will still be on the hook for him for SIX more seasons at an average of $27.5 million per season.

 

Holy schamoly that's unbelievable.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's got a torn plantar fascia. I had that, it is an injury that will be with you for a long, long time if it isn't fixed. And even after surgery, there is no guarantee it will work. If he gets complete relief, he could return to prominence. If he doesn't, then he's probably done as an impact bat

[Orange Juiced]

He's got a torn plantar fascia. I had that, it is an injury that will be with you for a long, long time if it isn't fixed. And even after surgery, there is no guarantee it will work. If he gets complete relief, he could return to prominence. If he doesn't, then he's probably done as an impact bat

 

The normal curve for the vast majority of players in MLB history is a decline in the 33-35 year old range, steepening as it nears 40. It is the rare, rare bird that continues to play at a high level at that point. (Note: I'm talking without PEDs, which changed the equation dramatically)

 

Unless Pujols is a PED user (always a possibility, I guess), he should suffer a normal decline anyway, even without the injury. And recovery from injury becomes more difficult as we get older (believe me, I know what I'm talking about here!). I don't see him *ever* returning to what he once was. He could still have a couple of pretty nice seasons, I'll grant, but yikes that contract is horrendous.

[Bellhorn04]

I said it at the time, worst contract in history, even worse than A-Rod's last one. Especially since they had A-Rod's contract sitting right in front of them.

 

Then they follow it up by handing $125 million to Hamilton.

[Bellhorn04]

Still, my favorite bad contract these days is BJ Upton's 75 million. Poor ol' BJ is hitting 177/266/300. And for bonus points he's dragging his brother Justin down with him.

[SoxSport]

Doesn't mean much to the Angels, thanks to their Fox TV contract which is paying Pujols' salary. They'll just go out and buy somebody else, though Moreno is a bit more stingy than those Dodger owners.

[sk7326]

Worst contract in baseball is pretty clearly Ryan Howard's. When evaluating the contracts, you have to look at the decision at the time with limited information. Pujols the bet was that he could still hold good to great value for another 5 seasons. The dip he had shown his last season in Saint Louis has seemed to continue. But he was the best hitter in the game one season earlier - Angels with their money had reason to make that move. It's free agency, the winning bidder almost always has to overpay.

 

BJ Upton's deal has to be tempered with understanding that the industry is drowning in cash. A 28 year old, plus center fielder, with power, a good approach and still some upside is probably worth that investment. He has obviously really struggled, but the Braves move made sense. He was a better long term bet than Michael Bourn, who might not be a playable regular if he loses a step. Victorino's contract is also a pretty shaky one if his defense drops at all - but only 2 seasons after this so that tempers it quite a bit.

[Behindenemylines]

That's why the Cards are always in contention for the playoffs. Their FO makes the tough decisions, and most of the time they are the correct ones. They were smart enough too know that what Pujols was looking for in years and $$$$ was not a good investment and moved on. Not that Ellsbury is in the class of Pujols, but what Borus isn't going to ask for in years and $$$$ is not going to be a good investment for the Sox. That's why as much as I like what Ellsbury gives to the team, he is probably going to move on. The Sox will probably offer him 5 years at $15 to $17 million a year, and Borus is looking for more.

[Dojji]

Worst contract in baseball is pretty clearly Ryan Howard's. When evaluating the contracts, you have to look at the decision at the time with limited information.

 

I only agree to a point. At some point when multiple big contracts don't pan out you have to be willing to face the music. Big contracts are a big risk, if you can't pick those risks well, then you need to adjust your tactics based on history, not just on "what's known at the time."

[sk7326]

I only agree to a point. At some point when multiple big contracts don't pan out you have to be willing to face the music. Big contracts are a big risk, if you can't pick those risks well, then you need to adjust your tactics based on history, not just on "what's known at the time."

 

Oh sure - at some point people can pick them badly. But the worst contracts involve the worst decisions. Some decisions can be defensible without working out - nobody can predict the future. The Howard contract was a bad idea at the time - he has been overrated his whole career. The Pujols contract, Angels were willing to eat the later years for a few more prime-ish years. That was a dicey decision, but not on the level of the Howard one.

[Dojji]

I can agree with that. There's a difference between Beckett's first extension and his second, just as an example. The first was a good idea even in the face of the bad year he was having in 06, since he was very talented and proven in the playoffs, and it helped lead us to the promised land. The second time, we were signing an inconsistent pitcher on the decline, which wasn't the best idea.

[Palodios]

You never know, things can always change. Remember when we were all saying the John Lackey was the worst contract in baseball?

[Dojji]

One good year doesn't change that all that much. IF he comes back next year and does the same thing, it'll be time to reevaluate.

 

Or if he helps lead us to the World Series, it would of course be time to do a lot of reevaluating.

[User Name]

I get the impression that if Pujols can overcome his foot problem, that contract won't be so bad. Considering how painful plantar fascitis is, it's a surprise he's played at all this year let alone post half-decent numbers.

[BSN07]

Let's see,

 

Arod, Soriano, Upton, Werth, Santana, Bay, Howard, Rios, Pujols, Hamilton, Crawford, Zito.

 

A few of those guys have enough time left on their deals that they could perform well enough that the deals don't seem too bad.

[Spitball]

According to Yahoo, Pujols will undergo surgery and surely be out for the season.

[User Name]

Werth looks like he's back to the guys he was in Philly, Rios has been around a 3-win player for his career with the White Sox, so he's not a black hole. Zito sucked, Howard was a stupid deal to begin with, Crawford was never going to live up to that contract, and Santana doesn't have the stuff or health anymore to be worth the money while Bay was a complete and utter bust as is A-Rod considering the time he has left and his injuries/PED drama.

 

Upton, Hamilton and Pujols are the "we'll see guys" while Soriano was just "meh".

[rjortiz]

Prince Fielder

[User Name]

.885 OPS so far into his contract. He has a bad body type and will probably and suddenly decline, but in the meantime he is anything but a bust.

[Behindenemylines]

I think bad contracts still starts with A-Rod. It will become even worse when MLB suspends the rest of the cheats in the next 7 to 10 days. The New York media is already circling like voltures.

[Northern Star]

.885 OPS so far into his contract. He has a bad body type and will probably and suddenly decline, but in the meantime he is anything but a bust.

 

Hasn't been a bust but that was insane money for basically a DH.

[User Name]

He's not a DH though......yet.

[Emmz]

Joe Mauer's contact is awful. He doesn't play every day, he's not even a catcher all the time now, and he hasn't hit for power since 2009.

 

He's still just a really awesome hitter, and it's hard to dog a player who hits .320 every year, but I think I always felt he might be able to maintain some of the power he had in 2009. I'd be satisfied if he could managed 15-20 home runs, but he doesn't ever do that and it's kind of disappointing.

 

Is someone who plays in 140 games, hits for .850-.900 OPS and is an elite catcher worth 23 million dollars?

[User Name]

Fangraphs has him pretty close at 21.2 million for 2012 and 21.3 million (so far) for 2013. So per their valuations, other than 2011, he's been worth his contract.

[Bellhorn04]

One thing I shake my head about with Mauer's contract is that the Twins' new ballpark was bad for his home run production. When you sign a $184 million contract with a player maybe you should consider doing something about this?

[User Name]

Well i don't think people were really convinced Mauer's 2009 was anything more than an outlier. I personally thought something had clicked, but it looks like they were right in predicting he would turn back into what he's always been: A high average, high-OBP hitter with average power.

[Emmz]

Fangraphs has him pretty close at 21.2 million for 2012 and 21.3 million (so far) for 2013. So per their valuations, other than 2011, he's been worth his contract.

 

Well, no, that means he's been worth under his contract, even if only just barely. Considering a lot of players who are paid like that have seasons where they're worth 30M+, and that's what the team is usually going for, I still can't really help but think of him as a bust.

 

I didn't think he was going to hit 30 home runs, but I felt like he probably figured out how to hit home runs a little better than he had before, with a slight chance that he could become a top-shelf hitter that he was in 2009. He also has a long time left on the deal, and it's already a known fact that his knees can't handle catching full time. When you consider that he's probably going to become a 1B pretty soon, his power just isn't good enough for him to be worth his money.

 

I also have to agree that Target Field was the most ridiculous idea for a team that, at the time of opening, was an offensive powerhouse with a stacked middle of the order. Being in a pitchers ballpark definitely hurts him, but in all fairness he's really just back to the way he was hitting in the MetroDome before 2009.

[User Name]

What my post meant to say is that he's been worth his contract so far, per their valuations.

[Emmz]

Well, actually he hasn't, since he's being paid 23M and not 21M. He also missed half of 2011, and wasn't worth his contract when he did play.

[italstallianion]

What's the dollar value assigned to wins these days?