Big Fan of Pedroia but Not His Extension

[a700hitter]

Well in one case you only need your eyes to get all the proof your need. Webster has be as bad as smell on s***. He gets routinely pummeled every time he starts a game for us, and he also seems to have a rough time making adjustments. Notice they are not starting him anymore? IMO he is not going to be anything but a guy with a great arm who can't seem to get people out. Barnes? He has been good but he has been bad as well and his progress has slowed the last year or so. He is doing little more than showing scouts that he is a No. type at best. I know one Red Sox scout out here where I live and two Rays scouts, one my daughter's God Father, the other one of my closest friends of whom I'm the Godfather of his son. They believe that. They also have a high regard for Henry Owens who is from Huntington Beach in So. Cal. I think he's the one to watch and both those gentlemen think the same.

I think our FO has been pretty terrible at evaluating and drafting pitching talent. That has been going on for a while. I hope that their current scouting department can do a better job than has has been done for several years. As for the guys in our system, the FO can't sit and wait for something that is more likely not to happen. Next season or the season after they will have to add to the staff from outside the organization.

[sk7326]

I think Ellsbury comes back next year and signs early even with Boras as his agent. I think if the Red Sox go far in the postseason and if they win it all he will definitely be back. The front office love him and even with Bradley waiting in the wings i still seeing him coming back to Boston. Some where around Peedy's deal is more like what he will get. If he had a 20+ HRs he'd want a blockbuster contract but him prolly only showing power of about 10+/- HRs he wont be recieving a 20M per year contract.

 

An outfield of Bradley Ells and Vic next year would be terrific next year. With Nava, Gomes, and Carp filling in.

 

BJ Upton got 5/85. Ellsbury is a better player even if this is what he turns out. The homeruns have not been there, but the extra bases are fine, his on base has been good and he has been a factor on the bases. He also plays an elite CF. If this season were his benchmark year, that's a 20M dude, in a world where the money is flowing.

[italstallianion]

It makes me wonder if bad contracts can be used as benchmarks. An agent can be like "well, this player got this much" and the team could be like "yeah, and we all know that was an abortion of a contract that's virtually untradeable"

[sk7326]

It makes me wonder if bad contracts can be used as benchmarks. An agent can be like "well, this player got this much" and the team could be like "yeah, and we all know that was an abortion of a contract that's virtually untradeable"

 

Single contracts no - but industry trends, probably. Upton's contract was not amazingly bad for what he is - he has been terrible since signing it, but quality CFs with pop don't grow on trees and as the sport has gotten better at measuring defense his skillset became more valuable. I mean Ryan Dempster was clearly a $12M pitcher and his contract was a steal when you consider how much the industry was paying for durable workhorses. BTW: also a big reason Lester will get paid this offseason - even in his current form, starters who never get hurt have a significant value that teams are paying good money for.

[User Name]

Next offseason, since the Sox will clearly exercise his option.

[User Name]

Cano probably canned Boras because of the promise of more money, not a desire to stay in pinstripes. Had that been the reason he fired Boras, he'd have already signed an extension.

 

To be fair here I wonder if he would've canned Boras if Jay Z wasn't another option as an agent.

[dupree]

Id rather have Boras who has experience than Jay-Z who has none. I cant stand him or his pot belly wife Beyonce they need to keep their noses out of Politics and Sports Agents. But hopefully the Yanks sign him back and he bombs like every other big contract the Yanks have signed in the past and then once he flops they try to get out from under it like ARods. I think its hilarious how they are trying to not pay him now and he still has soo much money left on his deal, but it is getting annoying hearing about it every time the Yanks are mentioned it almost as annoying as hearing if Brett Favre was gonna retire or come back and play (respect the man but not the social media making every offseason the Brett Favre Saga)

[jung]

Hard to blame the Yanks for not trying to get out from under the A-roid deal. The Spanks baseball people did not want to resign A-roid. He went to ownership and they signed him, obviously thinking the PR boost they would get was more meaningful than A-roid's pure baseball value. Why else would you overturn the decision of your baseball people. Then he turns out to be a juicer which sort of throws the PR boost down the toilet.

 

Yanks are screwed on A-roid any way you look at it. Only way out for them would be if A-roid retired. Fat chance of that.

 

Next CBA will very likely give teams relief in cases like A-roid in the future as it will likely give teams the option to void a contract obtained using performance numbers suspected of being juice based. They will probably write the language so that teams will not be forced to prove that the player was actually juicing for a particular period of time but will allow the team to void the contact if the player tests positive during the contract period.

 

There is a good deal of hypocrisy in all of this. Really MLB only wants to catch players stupid enough to get caught. The league wants HR's which are getting hard to come by. They don't want 160 lb pip-squeaks banging out 20 HR seasons but they want more offense than they are getting currently. I think MLB is willing to live with a certain amount of PED use if they can find a happy medium.

 

It might be time for MLB to stop dancing around the thing, making believe they want players 100% clean...admit that they are tolerating PED use and find a way to regulate it so that they get what they are after.

[User Name]

There's never going to be a "happy medium" to PED usage sadly. Where could you possibly draw the line there? That also takes away any legitimacy from any suspensions that would be handed out. Why would anyone take a suspension for PED usage when there are others using it maybe just a little less, or something.

[jacksonianmarch]

Jung, I agree, the CBA will be vastly different next time around. The players want this crap out as much as the owners. I have a feeling any drug related suspension will make the rest of the contract for that player non-guaranteed

[vjcsmoke]

Ellsbury at 35 playing left field will be a better deal that Pedoria at 38 playing second base. One of use will be right but I doubt that either one of use will be on this tread saying 'I told you so' BTW ... has it been so long that you forget the year Ells had in 2011 when he was healthy? He is a stud and probably the 2nd best center fielder in baseball behind Mike Trout.

 

ROFL. Did you just compare Ellsbury to Trout? All your credibility just went out the window.

Mike Trout hit 30 homeruns at age TWENTY. He's a 950 ops CF.

 

Ellsbury has more speed than Trout but can't touch him in terms of power or getting onto base consistently.

Ellsbury has also been off and on with injuries and hasn't sniffed double digit homeruns since his one great year in 2011.

 

To me that 2011 season is looking more and more like a statistical outlier. Was he on the juice or was he just in 'the zone' that year? Who knows, but it does look like he will Never have that kind of season again.

 

I'd trade Ellsbury and top 10 farm prospects for Mike Trout easily, and LAA would just laugh and hang up the phone if that offer were made. And JUSTIFIABLY so.

 

Hate on Pedroia if you like, you're entitled to your opinion. 13.75m aav for an elite two-way 2b is good value though imo. And once Cano signs his deal, Dustin's will look like a huge bargain.

 

In any case the Ellsbury to Trout comparisons are ridiculous.

Edited July 29, 2013 by vjcsmoke

[sk7326]

Ellsbury has had a fine season this year - one which would absolutely be worth $15-20M a year if he could keep delivering it. Ellsbury is arguably the 2nd best CF in the AL (Austin Jackson, Adam Jones probably could protest reasonably) . Mike Trout is the best all around player in the sport - as a 21 year old. There is no comparison.

[mvp 78]

Ells is not a $20M a year guy. He just isn't who would pay $20M for a guy whose only weapon is speed? No one will pay that much for a guy with no power and a long injury history.

[sk7326]

Ells is not a $20M a year guy. He just isn't who would pay $20M for a guy whose only weapon is speed? No one will pay that much for a guy with no power and a long injury history.

 

A guy who gets on base at a high clip (with a better approach than he has shown in younger days), with good power (on a 30 double, 10 triple sort of pace) and delivers excellent performance at one of the two or three most important positions on the diamond? Without a doubt the industry is paying for that - if he were a LF, this is a totally different conversation.

[redsoxrules]

BJ Upton got 5/85. Ellsbury is a better player even if this is what he turns out. The homeruns have not been there, but the extra bases are fine, his on base has been good and he has been a factor on the bases. He also plays an elite CF. If this season were his benchmark year, that's a 20M dude, in a world where the money is flowing.

 

BJ Upton got 5/85 because whoever signed him is an idiot for giving him that much.

[mvp 78]

BJ Upton also hit 28 HR's leading up to his new contract. Ells won't get to 10.

[sk7326]

BJ Upton also hit 28 HR's leading up to his new contract. Ells won't get to 10.

 

He got it because he played a premium position well, and still young enough to get a little better. Ellsbury does not have the future growth thing going for him, but a lot better "present performance". Him getting to 10 homeruns would be nice, but the extra base hits aren't particularly lacking.

 

Michael Bourn is another comp - he got $12M on the back of basically defense and speed and a career year at the plate though he did not get on base as frequently as Ellsbury has nor has he stolen bases as efficiently. Ellsbury looks quite good by comparison. BTW: I'd let him go, but his production this season would be something I'd be delighted with if Bradley could approximate it.

[User Name]

You seem to be conveniently forgetting Ellsbury's health history. That's going to impact both his salary and the length of the contract.

[italstallianion]

In Ellsbury's defense, two of his injuries came from a big lumbering 3B plowing into his chest, and a middle infielder landing on top of his extended shoulder.

[User Name]

So that's a valid excuse when negotiating? Missed time is missed time. Also, he seems to be a notoriously slow healer, which doesn't help.

[italstallianion]

I do think it's a valid excuse. It shows that it wasn't his fault and that it wasn't because his body is Drew family frail. Those flukish injuries can happen to anyone and shouldn't discount a contract unless it can reasonably effect future performance. (ie shoulder injury showing decline in arm strength/bat speed)

[User Name]

You mean like going from 30+ Hr's in 2011 to probably less than 10 in 2013?

[italstallianion]

If one can relate that to his injury and not because the 30 HR's was a flukish performance. Did Ellsbury ever show that power potential in college/minors? (I'm not trying to be an ass I don't know that answer)

[User Name]

Also, while the injuries were freaky, the amount of time lost was excessive. That's just undisputable.

[mvp 78]

If one can relate that to his injury and not because the 30 HR's was a flukish performance. Did Ellsbury ever show that power potential in college/minors? (I'm not trying to be an ass I don't know that answer)

 

When he first came up, some Boston writers were comparing his bad to Ted Williams and stating that power would develop. I think most saw 25 HR's to be a sure thing.

[sk7326]

I do agree, his durability history is a big problem. That said, the injuries were freakish. Him being 30 is a bigger issue. 2011 and 2013 have been his two best seasons by far - the latter is an elite CF, the former season was the best position player in baseball. Could someone pay him on the strength of this season - yes, and probably in the $15-18 range considering how much money is flowing in the sport and the general "winner's curse" associated with free agency. I would have hard time, and I think the Sox would be ok letting Bradley drive. Bradley, even with his cup of coffee struggles with the big club, has shown such an advanced approach at the plate, that he could be valuable while he figures out the rest of it.

[mvp 78]

And in a span of an hour, you've already come down from 20M to 18M. Personally, I'd be surprised if he signs for more than 14M AAV.

[sk7326]

And in a span of an hour, you've already come down from 20M to 18M. Personally, I'd be surprised if he signs for more than 14M AAV.

 

Didn't know this was an auction, you could be right. I am curious myself though I certainly think $20 is possible though unlikely - industry is getting a lot smarter at looking at the whole package here, and paying for the importance of the position. Basically Ells is better than Bourn and Upton, which are the two best comps. It might be a matter of hitting the market as a 30 year old vs a 28 year old.

[mvp 78]

Didn't know this was an auction, you could be right. I am curious myself though I certainly think $20 is possible though unlikely - industry is getting a lot smarter at looking at the whole package here, and paying for the importance of the position. Basically Ells is better than Bourn and Upton, which are the two best comps. It might be a matter of hitting the market as a 30 year old vs a 28 year old.

 

I agree. It'll be interesting to see what the open market thinks of him.

[Dojji]

Also, while the injuries were freaky, the amount of time lost was excessive. That's just undisputable.

 

Yes, the Red Sox medical staff has some questions to answer about why Ellsbury's repeated attempts to retake the field were constantly sidetracked by further medical issues. He spent a lot of time in 2010 in particular reinjuring himself because they kept clearing him to go back out there while he still had fractured ribs.

 

Some people heal particularly quickly, some heal slowly. Ellsbury seems to be a slow healer. It happens. At least he's not as bad as Rocco Baldelli.

Edited July 29, 2013 by Dojji