A700's Spring Training Thoughts and Observations

[a700hitter]

Dude get your panties out of a wad. I'm not sure you've seen him pitch more than me considering I went back and watched old games of him pitching with the Dodgers. And every scout and essentially person who has been at his games, other than a700, has said that this kid is special, his stuff is filthy and electric. He doesn't throw 95, he throws ~97 and touches 100. There's a big difference there.

 

His fastball has averaged about 6.45 inches of run to it over his MLB career, according to Brooks Baseball. David Prices fastball has 7.14 inches of run. His fastball has plenty of movement.

 

He also threw 56% 1st pitch strikes in 2011, when the league average was 59.8%. So, that's what, 4% less than League Average? Which translates to, in a 7 inning start facing 30 hitters, 1 fewer 1st pitch strike per game? It's certainly something that he can improve on, but hell, it's certainly not something I would use to say he won't be successful as a starter.

 

Did you notice his 3.71 ERA, or his 3.85 FIP, or his 3.55 xFIP? As a 22 year old??

 

It's mind boggling that, with his stuff, you want to put him in the pen.

Anyone who saw him on Wednesday would not have been very impressed. He got hit very hard by a bunch of chumps. The hits off him were ripped. As I said earlier, it may have just been a bad outing. Pedro was a once in a generation talent, so concluding that he will not be the next Pedro is not exactly closing the door on his career. I think we need to see if they let him face the opponent's starting lineup or whether he faces reserves. He was far from impressive on Tuesday. We'll have to wait and see.

[SoxFanForsyth]

There really was to report on tonight. Dempster was effective, but I can't see him being very successful in the AL with his stuff. The biggest plus he can give us would be a lot of mediocre innings.

 

Wilson threw okay 92-93. If the gun is 2 mph slow, he still did not throw harder than Carter. Don't know much about Carter but he has a smoother and easier delivery than Wilson. He impressed me more thsn Wilson, but neither is very impressive.

 

One thing you have to kind of consider is that Dempster threw all FB or cutters. Farrell said he threw about 15-16 cutters and the rest fastballs, which would mean about 50 fastballs. Said he is trying to really build good arm strength. Dempster is a guy who lives off of his split, so not having that in his arsenal tonight gives a bit of a flawed perspective. Not saying he's going to be a Cy contender but he probably doesn't let up 2 runs if he's using off speed stuff tonight.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Anyone who saw him on Wednesday would not have been very impressed. He got hit very hard by a bunch of chumps. The hits off him were ripped. As I said earlier, it may have just been a bad outing. Pedro was a once in a generation talent, so concluding that he will not be the next Pedro is not exactly closing the door on his career. I think we need to see if they let him face the opponent's starting lineup or whether he faces reserves. He was far from impressive on Tuesday. We'll have to wait and see.

 

You gotta read the reports after the game. In his previous outing before Tuesday, he threw too many off speed pitches and they told him to throw more fastballs. Well then he went out and threw almost exclusively fastballs on Tuesday.

 

Im not making excuses for him, I'm just giving you the stats of his performance so you can make a better judgement on him.

[a700hitter]

One thing you have to kind of consider is that Dempster threw all FB or cutters. Farrell said he threw about 15-16 cutters and the rest fastballs, which would mean about 50 fastballs. Said he is trying to really build good arm strength. Dempster is a guy who lives off of his split, so not having that in his arsenal tonight gives a bit of a flawed perspective. Not saying he's going to be a Cy contender but he probably doesn't let up 2 runs if he's using off speed stuff tonight.

I think he threw a couple or three splitters tonight.

[a700hitter]

Iglesias is still swinging the bat aggressively. That is good to see even though he is not getting great results right now.

[jung]

Iggy is still swinging the bat aggressively. I think the Sox and Iggy are both committed to this shorter, more aggressive swing. I am convinced he will get better results with it. I have no idea how much better but better none the less.

 

Even when he gave up that punch and judy swing last year, his swing was longer with much more involvement from his upper body. This approach is all hips and wrists. That is not a bad idea for a smallish guy.

[BSN07]

One thing you have to kind of consider is that Dempster threw all FB or cutters. Farrell said he threw about 15-16 cutters and the rest fastballs, which would mean about 50 fastballs. Said he is trying to really build good arm strength. Dempster is a guy who lives off of his split, so not having that in his arsenal tonight gives a bit of a flawed perspective. Not saying he's going to be a Cy contender but he probably doesn't let up 2 runs if he's using off speed stuff tonight.

 

This is what people forget or just don't understand when looking at ST Pitching performances. Pitchers are typically working on a specific area of their arsenal, certain locations of their pitches, or just flat building up their arm strength. Pitchers are not "pitching" like they would during a regular season game. The fact he pitched that well only using FB's it actually a positive sign.

[a700hitter]

Bradley looked pretty good tonight. He's patient in his plate appearances, yet he swings aggressively. He went 1 for 3. I like his plate discipline and aggressiveness. He looks to have a strong accurate arm-- something we have not seen in CF for more than 10 years.

 

Iglesias still can't get himself on base, but hopefully his new approach will pay dividends.

 

Doubront, Hanrahan, Bailey and Miller all had good outings. Doubront's velocity was down from his norm. He was 90-91 most of the outing. If the Ft Myer's gun had been slow in the past, it is not slow at this point. Hanrahan was clocking in at 96. Miller was at 95-96. Bailey was throwing 93.

 

The O's showcased a couple of live arms out there tonight. Bundy, the starter hit 98 and Gausman was sitting at 97.

 

Brock Holt had a rough night a second base tonight. He couldn't turn 2 easy DPs in the first inning.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bradley just looks smoothe out in CF. he looks like your eventual CFer of the future.

[BSN07]

Bradley just looks smoothe out in CF. he looks like your eventual CFer of the future.

 

Ya it's been nice to more of a look at him this spring. Looks like he's got some potential.

[SoxSport]

Judging ST performance is a slippery slope. What you see can be decieving. The hot hitters in ST can suddenly turn cold when they go north in April. The cold hitters can become hot. Happens all the time, and drives fantasy owners nuts.

 

One problem is the mix of minor and major leaguers--some out of shape. To get a better handle of ST performance, some stat sites have begun evaluating ST performance according to the level of pitching or hitting the player has seen in ST games. If a prospect has done well against major leaguers, that counts more than if he has done well against mainly minor leaguers. The GMs have a handle on ST performance at this level, so they know the score on who is doing what.

 

If a prospect is hitting or pitching well against primarily major leaguers, that's a boon to the player and his confidence. Confidence is everything for these kids trying to move up to the next level. It's what allows the ability to get through.

[BSN07]

ST is all about building up actual game strength and staying healthy. It's gloried practice. ST stats mean absolute F all.

[SoxSport]

Too bad Ellsbury is such a slow starter. If he had a hot spring, and Bradley continues to look good , he might wind up getting traded. More likely that might happen after the start of the season. Bradley may get couple of months in AAA, like Middlebrooks did last year. There is a tendency these days to move hot prospects up the ladder with partial seasons in AA and AAA.

 

Another trade possibility is Drew. The Cardinals could have some interest with Furcal down. They had interest in Drew pre-season, according to Cafardo. Iglesias would have to show some improvement in hitting for that to happen. Or maybe they would go with Siriaco and Holt until Bogaerts is ready. They have a lot of options at SS--more than some people think.

 

The way the Red Sox spent their way back up to the cap pre-season, it makes you wonder if they didn't do some of that to justify high ticket prices and remain a big spending team.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bradley is the antithesis of Ellsbury in the field. Ellsbury gets horrendous jumps on balls, but his blazing speed allows him to make up for it. Bradley has above average big league speed, but his jumps are so good that he doesnt need to find the extra burst to get after balls he broke poorly on.

[Station 13]

Bradley is doing everything right since the start of spring. Just picking up where he left off last season. He also seems genuinely nice and his demeanor sticks out. He has the poise to back his skillets. I would probably rank him now as the Sox's #1 prospect because he's a nearest complete and major league ready.

[jung]

Ells usually finds that extra burst just in time to go crashing into a wall.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bradley is doing everything right since the start of spring. Just picking up where he left off last season. He also seems genuinely nice and his demeanor sticks out. He has the poise to back his skillets. I would probably rank him now as the Sox's #1 prospect because he's a nearest complete and major league ready.

 

Your #1 prospect is Bogaerts. Bradley profiles to have average power. He'll probably top out in the 15HR range in his career. Bogaerts currently plays SS, has now power and the potential to be a 35HR a yr guy annually. And it isnt like Xander is miring through Lowell. He has an outside chance of starting in Pawtucket this yr

[BSN07]

Your #1 prospect is Bogaerts. Bradley profiles to have average power. He'll probably top out in the 15HR range in his career. Bogaerts currently plays SS, has now power and the potential to be a 35HR a yr guy annually. And it isnt like Xander is miring through Lowell. He has an outside chance of starting in Pawtucket this yr

 

Ranks usually go off upside more then ML readiness. I would say it's fair to say Bradley is the more ML ready prospect at this time. But like you said, Bogaerts has the highest ceiling.

[a700hitter]

Ells usually finds that extra burst just in time to go crashing into a wall.

[seabeachfred]

Dude get your panties out of a wad. I'm not sure you've seen him pitch more than me considering I went back and watched old games of him pitching with the Dodgers. And every scout and essentially person who has been at his games, other than a700, has said that this kid is special, his stuff is filthy and electric. He doesn't throw 95, he throws ~97 and touches 100. There's a big difference there.

 

His fastball has averaged about 6.45 inches of run to it over his MLB career, according to Brooks Baseball. David Prices fastball has 7.14 inches of run. His fastball has plenty of movement.

 

He also threw 56% 1st pitch strikes in 2011, when the league average was 59.8%. So, that's what, 4% less than League Average? Which translates to, in a 7 inning start facing 30 hitters, 1 fewer 1st pitch strike per game? It's certainly something that he can improve on, but hell, it's certainly not something I would use to say he won't be successful as a starter.

 

Did you notice his 3.71 ERA, or his 3.85 FIP, or his 3.55 xFIP? As a 22 year old??

 

It's mind boggling that, with his stuff, you want to put him in the pen.

 

A guy can throw 97MPH but if his ball is as straight as an arrow he is going to get hit, and if you saw his last performance he got ripped good by a bunch of second raters. He got hit in LA and he will get hit in Boston and harder if he doesn't harness his stuff and learn to pitch instead of throw. Your enthusiasm is commendable but get a grip. I'm not the only one who thinks he future is in the bullpen. You seem to be one of the very few who sees him as a starter.

 

And be sure, I saw him pitch more than you did b ecause he was a pretty regular bullpen guy for the Dodgers in 2011, and he was NOT t hat impressive at all. We'll just have to agree to disagree on him at the moment. You are not going to convince me that he is a starting pitcher any more than Bard was, and I've given up trying to convince you otherwise.

[mvp 78]

Regular bullpen guy: 13 games, 10 games started. Stop making stuff up please.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Regular bullpen guy: 13 games, 10 games started. Stop making stuff up please.

 

Yup.

 

And in his 3 games as a RP, he allowed a total of 3 hits. Only 1 of which was a XBH. .458 OPS Against as a Relief Pitcher in 2011. But he got hit hard. :dunno:

[mvp 78]

Yup.

 

And in his 3 games as a RP, he allowed a total of 3 hits. Only 1 of which was a XBH. .458 OPS Against as a Relief Pitcher in 2011. But he got hit hard. :dunno:

 

You don't know what you are talking about. He watched way more games of Rubby than we did!!! Stats be damned!

[SoxSport]

Bogaerts impressive at bat in the 9th against Cuba--just on TV. Went with pitch-- soft liner to RF for a hit loading the bases. Set up game winning sac fly for Netherlands.

[SoxSport]

Simmons tied game in 8th with homer. This kid is the Braves starting SS and leadoff batter.

[kapsis21]

Bogaerts impressive at bat in the 9th against Cuba--just on TV. Went with pitch-- soft liner to RF for a hit loading the bases. Set up game winning sac fly for Netherlands.

 

Cant wait to see Bogaerts and Bradley along with Webster and DLR on our roster.

[a700hitter]

My first game this Spring was Sunday against the O's.

 

Here are some impressions:

 

Doubront threw nice and free with good velocity and movement. He looks to be in good shape and he went through his innings without breaking a sweat. I think he will be our Andy Pettitte for years to come if we keep him in the organization.

 

Pedey is swinging the bat like he did before his injury. He's cutting loose.

 

Ortiz looks like he packed on a few lbs, but he still crushes the ball.

 

Napoli hit a bomb and looked good in the field too making a leaping catch.

 

As for the new guys, I have no conclusions, based on such limited observatin, but here are a few impressions:

 

Bogaerts will put up some power numbers if makes consistent contact. The ball jumps off his bat.

 

Brentz is a big boy, broad in the shoulders and very strong.

 

Cecchini had a terrible AB late in the game.

 

I saw Yaz's grandson. I recognized him during BP. He has some mannerisms of his granddad, and the swing was recognizeable. When he left the cage, i was able to confirm his identity afterseeing his nose. There is a resemblance.

[SoxSport]

My first game this Spring was Sunday against the O's.

 

I saw Yaz's grandson. I recognized him during BP. He has some mannerisms of his granddad, and the swing was recognizeable. When he left the cage, i was able to confirm his identity afterseeing his nose. There is a resemblance.

 

I saw the old Yaz when he was 22 in '61, his first year in Boston. He had two years in the minors, and hit a ton there both years. He comes to the Red Sox in '61 as Ted Williams' heir apparent in LF. He hits a modest .266 with a .327 OBP, 11 HRs. There is hope, Will Middlebrooks. Didn't pull the ball. Lots of doubles off the LF wall. I remember one game against the O's he pulled a "frozen rope" four feet off the ground to RF that was caught at the warning track. About as hard a ball as I've ever seen hit. An omen for things to come. His power, avg and OBP increase over the next few years, culminating in that monster triple crown year he had in '67. He was about as good a player who ever played for that one year. The other thing I remember is the monster playoffs he had in the late 70s against the As, when he moved back to LF from 1B due to injuries. Played a great LF in that series. He remains the greatest Red Sox defensive left fielder, and one of the greatest ever at that position.

 

I just saw his grandson briefly yesterday, but he didn't show very much. I see more of Yaz's great swing in Nava batting left handed than I did in his grandson. but that was only one at bat. Wonder why the Red Sox didn't sign him.

[iortiz]

Nice to hear you are having a good time there my friend...

[jacksonianmarch]

Jake Peavy cut his non pitching hand yet they say he may require a DL stint? That's interesting. Fit a custom glove over the hand and pitch simulated games to build the arm strength. I find this very strange