2013 Red Sox predictions.

[mvp 78]

SFF, as the resident Rubby #1 fan, what is his injury status? Wasn't he hurt last year? Will he be ready to go in April?

 

Personally, I'd love nothing more than to infuse the rotation with youth.

[SoxFanForsyth]

SFF, as the resident Rubby #1 fan, what is his injury status? Wasn't he hurt last year? Will he be ready to go in April?

 

Personally, I'd love nothing more than to infuse the rotation with youth.

 

TJS during 2011 season. Made a relief appearance in 2012 for the Dodgers before being part of the trade. Fully healthy now, early reports are that he's at full strength.

[User Name]

Not everything has to be based on "Statistical evidence" and perspective is not the same as pessimism. Young pitchers go through growing pains and bouts with inconsistency. That is normal. What makes you think that because of a couple innings in MLB he's exempt from these issues?

 

Even guys like Lincecum took a while to acclimate to MLB hitting, and he had the advantage of a big park and a weak division. He could come up and be an ace right away, sure, but chances are that's not how it's going to work. And as he makes adjustments, those are games the Sox are probably losing.

[iortiz]

If they are one game out of the WC at the end of the year (like in 2011), I'd consider it a win.

 

If they win 90 games after last year's abortion, no one here should have a reason to complain.

 

I do not you MVP but if we do not make the PO I will call it failed season again regardless the record.

 

If we win 90 games and do not make the POs (unlikely) or be one game out of the WC makes you feel better, fine, but I'm not in that boat. I would blame even more our FO if either of those were the scenarios, since they had plenty of opportunities to land another arm(s). In the end is about perspective.

[mvp 78]

Expecting playoffs every year is not realistic.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Not everything has to be based on "Statistical evidence" and perspective is not the same as pessimism. Young pitchers go through growing pains and bouts with inconsistency. That is normal. What makes you think that because of a couple innings in MLB he's exempt from these issues?

 

Even guys like Lincecum took a while to acclimate to MLB hitting, and he had the advantage of a big park and a weak division. He could come up and be an ace right away, sure, but chances are that's not how it's going to work. And as he makes adjustments, those are games the Sox are probably losing.

 

To be fair though, I'm not expecting ace innings from him. I'm expecting league average innings. If he gives us around a 4.2 era in his spot starts, I'll be happy. Again, I'm not saying he's going to be able to fill in for Lester or Buch, but i think that's around what we can expect for Dempster, Lackey, and Doubront. And that's why I think he can make any injuries to the bottom 3 seem relatively seamless in transition

[a700hitter]

Making the playoffs is a standard for success. No one "expects" success ever year, but a substandard season is a failure regardless of expectations. Otherwise, the Royals would be a huge success.

[User Name]

Yeah i very much disagree with that.

[a700hitter]

Standards don't get watered down by low expectations. It's that simple.

[User Name]

The problem is defining "standards" here imo.

[a700hitter]

I see iortiz point. A big market team that spends up to or over the LT cap, should have as its standard for success making the playoffs .

[User Name]

But if that team is coming off a colossal disappointment of a season and sees a 21-win improvement while setting itself up for subsequent years, can you really call that season a failure? Can you really expect a team that won 69 games to makes the playoffs? Is the standard of "success" the same for everyone?

 

Too many variables imo.

[VA Sox Fan]

Expecting playoffs every year is not realistic.

 

2004 and 2007 ruined so many fans. You know, like a lot of NYY fans. It's embarassing.

[a700hitter]

But if that team is coming off a colossal disappointment of a season and sees a 21-win improvement while setting itself up for subsequent years, can you really call that season a failure? Can you really expect a team that won 69 games to makes the playoffs? Is the standard of "success" the same for everyone?

 

Too many variables imo.

Yes, the season would not be a success. Improvement doesn't equal success. It's just improvement. Standards of success would differ from organization to organization relative to the resources of that organization.

[User Name]

Resources is just one of the variables. I think to focus completely on resources is misguided, but that's just me. We can agree to disagree.

[mvp 78]

2004 and 2007 ruined so many fans. You know, like a lot of NYY fans. It's embarassing.

 

And brought a lot of dumb band wagon fans...

[SoxFanForsyth]

And brought a lot of dumb band wagon fans...

 

Most of them are gone after last season, though.

[VA Sox Fan]

Most of them are gone after last season, though.

 

I hope so. Good riddance.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I hope so. Good riddance.

 

They're all Giants fans now.

 

If there was one thing BobbyV was good at, it was ridding this team of the fluff. People who jumped on board after 04 are long gone. And were long gone after April or May of last year.

[mvp 78]

Most of them are gone after last season, though.

 

That has yet to be seen. The lack of attendance was more due to diehards haring the direction of the team. The late arrival fans are happy with just going to Fenway to drink and sing Sweet Caroline (basically a Cubs fan) and don't care if they win or lose.

 

If bandwagon fans left after bad seasons, they would have disappeared after that boring 2010 season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I keep going back to this. I just can't think of 5 AL teams that are better than the Sox. And it's not homerism. I've got the Angels and Tigers as locks. I don't think the Yankees are better. They have a better rotation, but the pen is not as good, nor is the offense. The Jays are better. So that's 3 teams.

 

I don't know. I think it's going to be a very interesting season. Certainly the Sox are right up there with any WC contending team, but I really just don't see who is better than the Sox.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That has yet to be seen. The lack of attendance was more due to diehards haring the direction of the team. The late arrival fans are happy with just going to Fenway to drink and sing Sweet Caroline (basically a Cubs fan) and don't care if they win or lose.

 

If bandwagon fans left after bad seasons, they would have disappeared after that boring 2010 season.

 

True, but if you looked at the stadium at all last year, it was very much empty in a lot of games.

[jacksonianmarch]

I didn't lump him in because he was one of the better pitchers we had last year and he's not going to be replaced. Why the hell would I lump him in?? That's a dumb statement.

 

Yes. A 98-100 mph change and an 80 change according to past pitching coaches equals a closer. All he has to do is spin a slider (which, by the way, his slider is rated as a better than average pitch by fangraphs) and he's a solid starter. He's got 65 innings of big league experience and posted a solid era and FIP.

 

Literally the only starter in the Sox rotation that we "can't count on" is Lackey. Again, look at the xFIP from the Sox SP last year. 4.28 xFIP, 9th in the AL. And the rotation has certainly improved both from a depth and underperformance standpoint. It's not homerism. It's statistics.

 

Why would you lump him in? Maybe because he isnt one of your starters as it stands right now

[SoxFanForsyth]

Why would you lump him in? Maybe because he isnt one of your starters as it stands right now

 

He's not an improvement over last year because he's still here. This is ridiculous. I'm done with this argument. You don't think they're going to get better, I do. That's all there is to it.

 

Except stats agree with me.

[wyo-sox]

I keep going back to this. I just can't think of 5 AL teams that are better than the Sox. And it's not homerism. I've got the Angels and Tigers as locks. I don't think the Yankees are better. They have a better rotation, but the pen is not as good, nor is the offense. The Jays are better. So that's 3 teams.

 

I don't know. I think it's going to be a very interesting season. Certainly the Sox are right up there with any WC contending team, but I really just don't see who is better than the Sox.

 

Darn you! Starting to give me hope.

[Bellhorn04]

I keep going back to this. I just can't think of 5 AL teams that are better than the Sox. And it's not homerism. I've got the Angels and Tigers as locks. I don't think the Yankees are better. They have a better rotation, but the pen is not as good, nor is the offense. The Jays are better. So that's 3 teams.

 

I don't know. I think it's going to be a very interesting season. Certainly the Sox are right up there with any WC contending team, but I really just don't see who is better than the Sox.

 

It's definitely going to be interesting.

 

But after a season in which the starting rotation posted the worst collective ERA in franchise history and made no major upgrades, any optimism I have is very cautious. Actually my attitude is more like, let's just see WTF happens.

[jacksonianmarch]

I keep going back to this. I just can't think of 5 AL teams that are better than the Sox. And it's not homerism. I've got the Angels and Tigers as locks. I don't think the Yankees are better. They have a better rotation, but the pen is not as good, nor is the offense. The Jays are better. So that's 3 teams.

 

I don't know. I think it's going to be a very interesting season. Certainly the Sox are right up there with any WC contending team, but I really just don't see who is better than the Sox.

 

LOL, wow. You cannot think of 5 teams in the AL that are better? You dont think the Yankees are better? WTF planet are you on man?

[redsoxfan3]

LOL, wow. You cannot think of 5 teams in the AL that are better? You dont think the Yankees are better? WTF planet are you on man?

 

On paper, all injuries and underperformance concerns thrown out the window, the Red Sox could potentially be a top team in the AL. Now, there are not going to be high expectations because of how injuries and underperformance affected this team last year. I cannot say the Red Sox are better than the Yankees, but I do believe that they have the potential to be better than the Yankees. There are a lot of questions marks and 'what ifs.' However, if Big Papi, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Napoli, Middlebrooks, Gomes, Drew, Victorino, etc. can play like they are capable of playing and can steer clear of injuries, then this team has the potential to be one of the best offenses in baseball. The bullpen is the clear strength, but offense should be a big strength as well. The rotation is the huge concern. If Lester, Buchholz, and Dempster can stay healthy and have solid years, then that will be a solid top three in the rotation. Once again, those are huge question marks. Not to mention if Lackey can exceed expectations and Doubront can have a solid year, there is potential to have a decent rotation one through five. However, that is a very big concern. I am not saying the Red Sox are better or are going to be better than the Yankees, but the potential is there and it is always a possibility. It will take a lot, but never count them out. Don't get too cocky, you never know when Yankee Stadium will become a nursing home.

[SoxFanForsyth]

LOL, wow. You cannot think of 5 teams in the AL that are better? You dont think the Yankees are better? WTF planet are you on man?

 

How are the Yankees better outside of CC and Kuroda? You're counting on Pettitte to give you 30+ starts when he hasn't started more than 21 since 2008. You're counting on a 42 year old closer to recover fully from a torn up knee. You lost 70 IP of 2.35 ERA baseball in Soriano. ARod may not play a single game in 2012. Youkilis is pitiful away from Fenway, he's a .730 OPS hitter now and his defense is below average. Jeter has a broken ankle, why don't you ask Stephen Drew how those fair. Cano is still a beast, that's fine, but he's going to see very little in the zone now with nobody behind him that you need to respect. Catching is a monster question mark. For a team whose reliance on the long ball was extreme last year, losing Swisher and Martin (47 HR) hurts the offense very badly, and the Yanks have done nothing to 1. replace that HR production or 2. become less reliant on the long ball.

 

So yes. The Sox have a better team than the Yanks right now. I'll give the Angels, Tigers, and Jays as teams that, right now, look better. We'll see how the Jays mesh, but on paper they're certainly more talented. Outside of that, like I said, a lot of teams are lumped together. The Yanks, Sox, A's, Rays, and ChiSox are all in that group to varying degrees. But to say with any certainty that there are 5 teams better than the Sox? No way.

[NYlove4BoSox]

I think the AL East is the only division who's standings could be predicted in any order. There's no clear leader and there's no clear dog. It really will be exciting.

As far as the WC goes, I am not excited about watching the A's, Rangers, and Angels feast on the Astros and M's, collecting wins.