What is the best way to return to contention?

[mvp 78]

Aside from Gomes, who else is a 4th OF? Not Victorino. Not Ells. Kalish is a 5th, maybe. Nava is AAAA.

[jung]

On some teams Kalish would be a 4 and on some teams even Nava would be a 4 or a 5 again team dependent. Some teams would likely prefer Kalish to Gomes. Gomes is nothing to write home about.

[Lucienbel]

On some teams Kalish would be a 4 and on some teams even Nava would be a 4 or a 5 again team dependent. Some teams would likely prefer Kalish to Gomes. Gomes is nothing to write home about.

 

None the less, I think you stick Gomes in the proper platoon position and you end up happy with what you get out of him. Certainly an overpay and a defensive liability, but if we're smart with him we'll get production.

 

Edit- Read what I wrote and thought about it, $10 mil is a lot for being that situational.

[User Name]

Of course it's an overpay, that's the whole point. Pay a higher AAV so you can get the guys you want on shorter terms.

[iortiz]

Gomes was a steal.

[Spitball]

Gomes has been with three teams in the last two years. No one has ever paid him as much as $2 million a year. He had been a bargain when teams were signing him for less than a million.

 

As the right handed half of a platoon, he will not get as many at-bats the left handed half will get. The signing of Gomes is a head scratcher.

[Bellhorn04]

Gomes has been with three teams in the last two years. No one has ever paid him as much as $2 million a year. He had been a bargain when teams were signing him for less than a million.

 

As the right handed half of a platoon, he will not get as many at-bats the left handed half will get. The signing of Gomes is a head scratcher.

 

Gomes's numbers against RH pitching are not nearly as bad as the splits of many platoon types. Gomes's career line against RH pitching is 223/307/425/732. An OPS of 732 is approximately a major league average OPS. Also Gomes's home run power against RH and LH pitching is virtually equal. 1 HR per 18.7 AB vs. LH, 1 per 19.9 AB vs. RH. He should be able to do some damage in Fenway even against RH pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

Also one of the split statistics that gets overlooked is the numbers vs. 'RH starters'. Gomes's OPS in starts against RH pitchers is 754. This split takes in all the PA's in games where the starting pitcher was RH. So it accounts for the fact that in a typical game you're going to be facing multiple pitchers including relievers who throw from the other side, and you're not always going to have the luxury of matching up LH vs. RH etc.

[Spitball]

Gomes's numbers against RH pitching are not nearly as bad as the splits of many platoon types. Gomes's career line against RH pitching is 223/307/425/732. An OPS of 732 is approximately a major league average OPS. Also Gomes's home run power against RH and LH pitching is virtually equal. 1 HR per 18.7 AB vs. LH, 1 per 19.9 AB vs. RH. He should be able to do some damage in Fenway even against RH pitchers.

 

 

I am not a Jonny Gomes hater. As I understand it from Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, he has some intangible positives that he adds to a dugout and clubhouse, but a .223/307/425 slashline is not a real good arguing point for a corner outfielder.

 

Gomes has bounced around because teams could sign him for a bargain price. Then he would be permitted to walk because his production was generally replaceable when his price tag was going up. Look at his time in Tampa and Cincinnati.

[iortiz]

I am not a Jonny Gomes hater. As I understand it from Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, he has some intangible positives that he adds to a dugout and clubhouse, but a .223/307/425 slashline is not a real good arguing point for a corner outfielder.

 

Gomes has bounced around because teams could sign him for a bargain price. Then he would be permitted to walk because his production was generally replaceable when his price tag was going up. Look at his time in Tampa and Cincinnati.

 

I don't see that such improvement if you put Kalish or Nava in the OF instead. 10 MUSD doesn't worth that "improvement" IMO.

[Dojji]

I am not a Jonny Gomes hater. As I understand it from Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, he has some intangible positives that he adds to a dugout and clubhouse, but a .223/307/425 slashline is not a real good arguing point for a corner outfielder.

 

It's not a bad starting place when that's his weak side.

 

Cody Ross last year was a very comparable .256/.308/.422 against righthanded pitching. In fact that's so comparable it's pretty much dead even.

 

Really easy to see why the FO is trying Gomes, when they had that level of success with Ross. Could it fail? Absolutely. But we don't have another player that's an undisputed better idea right now.

[Palodios]

Gomes has been with three teams in the last two years. No one has ever paid him as much as $2 million a year. He had been a bargain when teams were signing him for less than a million.

 

As the right handed half of a platoon, he will not get as many at-bats the left handed half will get. The signing of Gomes is a head scratcher.

 

The idea was that Gomes does pretty much exactly the same thing as Cody Ross offensively, and they saved about 16 million in the process.

 

Ross against righties for his career : 253/ .312/ .415/ .727

Gomes against righties for his career : .223/.307/ .425/ .732

 

Gomes is willing to accept a platoon type role, but Cody Ross probably was not. Both guys are very good clubhouse type guys, so citing intangibles seems needless. If given the choice between Gomes and Ross in right field, I believe they made the right call.

[redsoxfan3]

The idea was that Gomes does pretty much exactly the same thing as Cody Ross offensively, and they saved about 16 million in the process.

 

Ross against righties for his career : 253/ .312/ .415/ .727

Gomes against righties for his career : .223/.307/ .425/ .732

 

Gomes is willing to accept a platoon type role, but Cody Ross probably was not. Both guys are very good clubhouse type guys, so citing intangibles seems needless. If given the choice between Gomes and Ross in right field, I believe they made the right call.

 

I thought Gomes was going to platoon in LF with Kalish or Nava. Isn't Victorino taking over RF this year? I do agree though, they are comparable.

[SoxSport]

What it boils down to is whether they got enough QUALITY for all the money they have spent pre-season.

 

It looks to me as though they sacrificed quality for 2-3 year contracts and retention of their draft picks.

[Bellhorn04]

What it boils down to is whether they got enough QUALITY for all the money they have spent pre-season.

 

It looks to me as though they sacrificed quality for 2-3 year contracts and retention of their draft picks.

 

Quality is a pretty vague term here. They signed 6 of Keith Law's 'Top 50 Free Agents'.

[redsoxfan3]

What it boils down to is whether they got enough QUALITY for all the money they have spent pre-season.

 

It looks to me as though they sacrificed quality for 2-3 year contracts and retention of their draft picks.

 

They have spent a lot of money because they are paying higher AAV to get players to come here on shorter contracts. I do like the philosophy of signing short contracts, while not having to give up draft picks. You do bring up a good point. We did not go out and get Hamilton or Greinke, but at least we improved our team over the AAAA team that we fielded at the end of last year. I think we will be better than the 69 win team that we had last year, but I don't think anyone can say for sure if the "quality" of players that we signed this year will make us a playoff team. It is hard to say. Cherington could really get scrutinized after this season for not signing good enough players if we are a complete circus this year, or he could get praised for having a team that surprised a lot of people without signing the best FA's.

[Behindenemylines]

I actually like Victorino cause it gives the Sox some protection on Ells. I am really not high on Victorino otherwise but reluctantly I have to admit they have to protect themselves on Ells. I like Ross (the catcher). Gomes I can take or leave. They took him...ok. It still looks like we are stockpiling #4 outfielders. Does anybody have more #4 outfielders than the Sox? I like the pitching acquisitions they have made this year with the exception maybe of Dempster. While I like the guys they have acquired as some of us have discussed, some here think it useful to "stockpile" bullpen depth. I simply am not of that school. Starter depth...totally agree with that concept....bullpen depth...not real convinced on that one. Seems to me they have made upgrades and can cut something away at this point. But in the long run it really won't matter, so fine....it is what it is. The biggest glaring weakness is still the biggest glaring weakness. That was going to be the case with or without Dempster.

 

The one everyday player move I really don't like so far is the one that is hung up, Napoli. So if that falls through, I won't be all that disappointed.

 

I am just not convinced that the Sox have accomplished what they appeared to be trying to accomplish for 2013 either from a business perspective (fannies in seats) or a performance perspective (wins). Is it an interesting team...not really...not to me anyway. Is it a team that can get to the post season...I doubt it. If you are neither interesting nor good, what are you?

 

Remember these short term deals this off season allow the Sox to continue to bring their youth along slowly. They might have given some of these guys big $$$$, but they kept the years short. Most of youth are targeted to join the show in 2013 or 2014. The hope is most of them reach their potential and the Sox will have a contending team for years. The FO then can target FA who fill holes that the system could not. A successful system also allows for trades for key pieces.

[jung]

The overpays are not as alarming when you consider the short terms but on a sliding scale of term to per annum $, the Sox are still overpaying, just not as much as the absolute $'s per year in these contracts might suggest.

 

As for the quality of the players, this was a tough year to be looking for players with the exception maybe of 1st baseman as it is a pretty thin class. As for a list of top 50, there are only about 210 FA in the whole class and 115 of them are pitchers. Relief pitchers abound.

[Spitball]

The overpays are not as alarming when you consider the short terms but on a sliding scale of term to per annum $, the Sox are still overpaying, just not as much as the absolute $'s per year in these contracts might suggest.

 

As for the quality of the players, this was a tough year to be looking for players with the exception maybe of 1st baseman as it is a pretty thin class. As for a list of top 50, there are only about 210 FA in the whole class and 115 of them are pitchers. Relief pitchers abound.

 

I am not crazy about each acquisition this winter. There were some overpays, but at least there were not any really long term overpays.

 

The return might take some time. Hopefully, Bogaerts, Brentz, Bradley, the farm system, and wise spending will bring the Sox back into contention. The old way of throwing big bucks at the Crawfords and Lackeys did not work. Trading top prospects for the Victor Martinezes and the Adrian Gonzalezes was not wise balance for growth and a healthy budget.

 

Hopefully, the Sox have learned to think differently and plan intelligently.

[Bellhorn04]

I am not crazy about each acquisition this winter. There were some overpays, but at least there were not any really long term overpays.

 

The return might take some time. Hopefully, Bogaerts, Brentz, Bradley, the farm system, and wise spending will bring the Sox back into contention. The old way of throwing big bucks at the Crawfords and Lackeys did not work. Trading top prospects for the Victor Martinezes and the Adrian Gonzalezes was not wise balance for growth and a healthy budget.

 

Hopefully, the Sox have learned to think differently and plan intelligently.

 

That's what I'm hoping too. I really like the fact they haven't traded any prospects or forfeited any draft picks this offseason. I'm looking forward to seeing some of these kids play.

[Elktonnick]

That's what I'm hoping too. I really like the fact they haven't traded any prospects or forfeited any draft picks this offseason. I'm looking forward to seeing some of these kids play.

 

I agree. While I expect this team to finish no better than 500, I am actually excited by the season. It is going to be a year of low expectations, So I hope they can exceed my expectations

[SoxSport]

They have spent a lot of money because they are paying higher AAV to get players to come here on shorter contracts. I do like the philosophy of signing short contracts, while not having to give up draft picks. You do bring up a good point. We did not go out and get Hamilton or Greinke, but at least we improved our team over the AAAA team that we fielded at the end of last year. I think we will be better than the 69 win team that we had last year, but I don't think anyone can say for sure if the "quality" of players that we signed this year will make us a playoff team. It is hard to say. Cherington could really get scrutinized after this season for not signing good enough players if we are a complete circus this year, or he could get praised for having a team that surprised a lot of people without signing the best FA's.

 

I doubt anything Cherington does is on his own. Not after the Epstein experience. The strategy of short term contracts and not losing draft picks was probably agreed on by the higher ups. The players they signed for bigger money short term are the over 30 guys they have traditionally avoided and who are coming off bad years. Indeed, one of them, Napoli, appears to be damaged goods. The result is they are once again with their backs against the luxury cap--after being taken off the hook by the Dodgers. That's the main problem.They have no money room to manuever the next 2-3 years except to trade. That makes Ellsbury a goner for sure--though he would have been gone anyways, I suspect. Ells just hasn't shown any consistency, with injuries, etc. And Bradley's development at this point makes Ells expendable.

 

I question the short term quality they got for the money they spent, and I'm concerned that they may have blocked some of their best prospects near term who might be ready within the 2-3 year window.

[Bellhorn04]

I question the short term quality they got for the money they spent, and I'm concerned that they may have blocked some of their best prospects near term who might be ready within the 2-3 year window.

 

I don't see which prospects are truly blocked.

[jung]

I don't think anybody is truly blocked either.

 

I don't like that they spent themselves all the way back up to the limit for so little "team". In fact I think many of us thought they would not do that because the FA prospects for this year were so thin with a very few noted exceptions. Now that Napoli seems to have edged over closer to the junk heap, this is almost a comically thin FA class.

 

This is not a version of what the O's did last year. They had young arms in their rotation with tons of upside and by season end they were pitching like it and they probably had a bit more bullpen then our vaunted group brings to the table as well. What the O's did get out of last season is a ton of major league seasoning for their young players.

 

For the team the Sox got I think they would have done better to have at least left something in reserve and filled a spot with a cost controlled player somewhere. If I thought this bunch had more than a ghost of a chance at the post season even with two WC teams and if I thought they could go far if they got to the post season...well then fine. But IMO opinion, there are two many question marks in their rotation and not enough upside in that rotation to get enough out of the guys that end up putting a plus sign in their box.

 

Nor do I think there is much about the group that has been brought in that will peak fan interest. So, if they look like they are not even challenging for a WC and the group as a whole does not peak much fan interest they may not even satisfy their business objectives. If that happens some fans might see something they might like.....the end of the Ben Charrington Era.

[iortiz]

I said this earlier. In order to start the rebuilding mode I would have started with pitching all the way. You could have followed several strategies. IMO FA would have been the best way since we had budget. I would have signed Sanchez and Jackson even if that had meant 4 yrs and overpay 'em and had meant not to sign anyone else (Gomes, Victorno and Napoli, etc).

 

You would have had a rotation like this

 

Sanchez

Lester

Buch

Jackson

Lackey/ Douby

 

Hanrahan

Bailey

Morales

Aceves

Tazawa

Hill

Bard

 

 

Not elite but Pretty solid rotation on paper. That BP is a very good one IMO.

 

On the other hand our offense would have been like this:

 

Ells (CF)

Peddy 2B

Ortiz DH

WB 3B

Ciriaco LF

Nava/Kalish RF

Gomez 1B

Salty/Lav C

Iglesias SS

 

yeah, it is an average offense or a bit below.

 

Probably you do not make the POs but you would have almost set the rotation toward 2014.

 

In 20014 I would focus in that #1 SP and some of the field spots OFs, SS, 1B (if needed, considering the performance of the 2013 roster)

 

That would have been my strategy.

[User Name]

That defeats the whole idea of "building for the future" and the all-important mantra of "stop handing out stupid contracts" in one fell swoop.

 

Not only do you overpay for mediocre talent, but you block the new wave of pitching prospects, and bloat the payroll (again) for several years.

[iortiz]

with that rotation you would have had a bunch of 2-3 SPs which is what you need by now to keep the team competitive in games. I'm not against long contracts. If you want a "decent"/"proved"/"solid" player it will cost you, you bet and mostly these days and going forward. You have to assume risks and see the probable benefits. Sanchez and Jackson would have been decent arms in Boston the next 4 yrs IMO, we''ll never know though, but that is the risk I would have assumed –– Bulid the rotation with a bunch of "proved" # 2-3 and see if someone can emerge and be your #1 and backup if someone shits the bed with depth arms like Lackey, Douby and even Morales or De LA Rosa. Then, in 2014 look for that ace if needed via trade or whatever and the field spots.

[Spitball]

That defeats the whole idea of "building for the future" and the all-important mantra of "stop handing out stupid contracts" in one fell swoop.

 

Not only do you overpay for mediocre talent, but you block the new wave of pitching prospects, and bloat the payroll (again) for several years.

 

Right. This is the philosophy we need to learn to accept. The Red Sox need to move away from their old practices (expensive long term contracts/trading prospects) and move toward a wiser use of all assets.

 

I think it will be hard for us because we have become used to "big splashes" in the off season. The Yankees apparently are moving in that direction, also.

[User Name]

Right. This is the philosophy we need to learn to accept. The Red Sox need to move away from their old practices (expensive long term contracts/trading prospects) and move toward a wiser use of all assets.

 

I think it will be hard for us because we have become used to "big splashes" in the off season. The Yankees apparently are moving in that direction, also.

 

This. Long contracts and overpaying mediocre talent is what got this team in this mess in the first place. Einstein's definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different outcome. The Red Sox needed to go in a different direction.

[iortiz]

I'm not sure if Sanchez or Jackson are that "big splashes" regardless they are all I have signed this offseason.