What is the best way to return to contention?

[Spitball]

For years the Red Sox and Yankees have been among the biggest spenders in baseball. And it worked pretty well...for several years. Then, contracts esculated in both dollars and years. Teams began handing out long term contracts that would pay players more than $20 million into their 40s.

 

The Yankees have several long term contracts on aging players still on the books. The Angels paid many millions for Pujols and Wilson. The Phillies paid Halliday and Lee millions per victory last year. The Red Sox had millions invested in Crawford, Gonzalez, Beckett, and Lackey.

 

The Yankees were swept and out of the playoffs very quickly. The Angels, Phillies, and Red Sox were disappointing performers all season long and did not even reach the post season. Detroit was a big spender but almost did not make the playoffs and was eventually embarrassed by the Giants in the World Series.

 

Teams that were pretty much built around their farm systems did very well last season. Small payroll Oakland beat out both the the big spending Rangers and Angels. Cincinnati, Washington, and San Francisco won their divisions despite not spending too much on free agency. The Cardinals were in the playoffs despite losing Albert Pujols.

 

"The Times They Are a-Changin' " was a Bob Dylan song that described changes in the political and social climates of the 1960s, but it applies to the world in general as time passes. I believe times are a changin' in baseball. For one thing, the economic strength seems to be shifting westward. The Yankees have been quiet as the Dodgers and Angels out spend everyone.

 

The Red Sox seem to have many fans longing for the old days of signing the Mannys and trading for the Pedros. I believe those days are cycling past us for now. Times will be a changin' eventually...again, but for now the Sox will have to adjust.

 

The Dodgers did the Red Sox Nation a huge favor by taking three bad, bad contracts off their hands. Now, how do they proceed?

[jacksonianmarch]

You're saying that the tigers were an embarrassment, even though they went to the World Series? The yanks as well, even though they were in the ALCS? C'mon man, lets not get too poetic here. The sox need to build from within, fill their holes with short term deals and only give long term deals to the truly elite players of our time

[SoxSport]

Last year, there was no correlation between payroll and team wins. Pure scatter if you plot the points.

Money doesn't guarantee success. And there are other ways: the farm system, the draft, clever GMs who know how to create chemistry, etc. The common failure route is to sign a bunch of high ticket stars and have the media annoint you the winner pre-season. Seems more the kiss of death.

[Spitball]

You're saying that the tigers were an embarrassment, even though they went to the World Series?

 

Yes, being swept in the World Series is an embarrassment. Very definitely it was an embarrassement to not win a single game

 

The yanks as well, even though they were in the ALCS? C'mon man, lets not get too poetic here.

 

They were swept, my friend. Too poetic? Take it to a Yankee board where you belong. I don't mind you posting here until you become a condescending *******. This is a board for Red Sox fans discussing our team's situation.

[onlybereaved]

Ruh Roh...

[Spitball]

Last year, there was no correlation between payroll and team wins. Pure scatter if you plot the points.

Money doesn't guarantee success. And there are other ways: the farm system, the draft, clever GMs who know how to create chemistry, etc. The common failure route is to sign a bunch of high ticket stars and have the media annoint you the winner pre-season. Seems more the kiss of death.

 

I agree. The Sox threw a bunch of money at Crawford and Lackey while trading top prospects to the Padres for Gonzalez (plus signing him for lots of money). It did not work. The Phillies, Angels, and Marlins also spent lots of money on star players only to see them disappoint and miss the playoffs. The A's, Reds, Giants, and Cardinals avoided the big spending and made the post season.

[Spitball]

Ruh Roh...

 

Well, maybe I was too hard on Jacko, but I was not being too poeitic. I usually enjoy his contributions.

[jung]

It is a little like having baseball teams constructed the way pro basketball teams are constructed. However the games are completely different.

 

While a pro basketball team that has many highly compensated, superstar players in its ranks may often be able to fight back to win games in the 4th quarter having lounged through the first 3 and might also go on a season ending run to make the post season, a baseball team full of defocused superstars would often find that by the time they realize they are being embarrassed by teams with half or less their payroll, they simply are unable to do anything about it. That even assumes they would figure it out and then care.

 

It appears that baseball is still a game that can be won by a blend of teamwork, sound fundamental play and hunger overachieving against defocused talent. I hope 2013 is another year where the "buy anything that moves" crowd gets knocked right on their rear ends.

[reYoukilis]

I agree totally. Just blindly throwing money at the seemingly best players isnt a good way to build a team. As you said San Fran wins WS twice in three years and in between Cardinals. Look at the Rangers, they didnt win the WS but were in it and Hamilton is the only real dominant player.

 

I think the Red Sox realize this and are trying to be smarter.

[onlybereaved]

Agreed, jung.

 

In the end, it's still a game and anything can happen. Spending the most on the best players just increases the chances but can't guarantee the title.

 

I think it looks good on teams regardless of the sport who spend the most on the best and end up losing to an underdog team who beats them for whatever reason.

 

Edit to note that teams who don't at least make some good investments/efforts just end up spinning their tires and making little or no progress (ie: my Buffalo Bills lol).

[Plumpamania]

Take back the Gonzalez trade and we have Anthony Rizzo at 1B - looking amazing and Casey Kelly in our rotation next year.

[Spitball]

Take back the Gonzalez trade and we have Anthony Rizzo at 1B - looking amazing and Casey Kelly in our rotation next year.

 

You are right. Epstein tried to do improve the team, but he made some foolish moves. I would rather have Rizzo and Kelly than the trade with the Dodgers. I'd rather have Rizzo than Napoli. I'd rather have Kelly than Dempster. The Sox need to embrace a new philosophy on building a winning team.

 

I must admit I loved the Gonzalez trade at the time. I loved the Crawford signing. I loved the Lackey signing. In fact, I was ecstatic with each move. However, I was wrong.

[NZSox]

It is a little like having baseball teams constructed the way pro basketball teams are constructed. However the games are completely different.

 

While a pro basketball team that has many highly compensated, superstar players in its ranks may often be able to fight back to win games in the 4th quarter having lounged through the first 3 and might also go on a season ending run to make the post season, a baseball team full of defocused superstars would often find that by the time they realize they are being embarrassed by teams with half or less their payroll, they simply are unable to do anything about it. That even assumes they would figure it out and then care.

 

It appears that baseball is still a game that can be won by a blend of teamwork, sound fundamental play and hunger overachieving against defocused talent. I hope 2013 is another year where the "buy anything that moves" crowd gets knocked right on their rear ends.

 

Brilliant post mate.

 

I'd love for this season's Sox to avoid the "buy anything that moves" crowd you mention, create a good clubhouse buzz and a bit of team spirit, and fight its way back into respectability. Respectability has to come first before contention.

[SoxSport]

I agree. The Sox threw a bunch of money at Crawford and Lackey while trading top prospects to the Padres for Gonzalez (plus signing him for lots of money). It did not work. The Phillies, Angels, and Marlins also spent lots of money on star players only to see them disappoint and miss the playoffs. The A's, Reds, Giants, and Cardinals avoided the big spending and made the post season.

 

What made the Phillies was getting Halladay and Lee to go with Hamels as a top 3 in the rotation. It didn't matter much who they put on the field when those three guys were cookin'. Last year, Halladay went down and Lee struggled. The result was an off-year for the team.If Halladay and Lee come back, they'll be right back in it this year.

[SoxSport]

You are right. Epstein tried to do improve the team, but he made some foolish moves. I would rather have Rizzo and Kelly than the trade with the Dodgers. I'd rather have Rizzo than Napoli. I'd rather have Kelly than Dempster. The Sox need to embrace a new philosophy on building a winning team.

 

I must admit I loved the Gonzalez trade at the time. I loved the Crawford signing. I loved the Lackey signing. In fact, I was ecstatic with each move. However, I was wrong.

 

 

Epstein's weakness was his love affairs with certain players like AdGon. What he didn't bargain for was that AdGon's shoulder would cost him some power. There was nothing in his contract to protect them from that. Henry was lucky to get rid of his contract.

 

Their current love affair is with Mike Napoli, but they are a little more careful with his contract.

[Behindenemylines]

So far it looks like they are going with their youth. All FA signings are short term contracts, and no top prospect were moved. It would be nice if they could be competitive why we wait for the kids to arrive. I don't want to go through another season like 2012.

[redsoxfan3]

So far it looks like they are going with their youth. All FA signings are short term contracts, and no top prospect were moved. It would be nice if they could be competitive why we wait for the kids to arrive. I don't want to go through another season like 2012.

 

This team has almost, if not the same amount of question marks as last year. The positive is that we are going to actually be fielding a better team than we did at the end of last year. I think Ben Cherington has made some nice short-term additions. What happens this season is up in the air. The Jays are going to be tough. The Orioles have a lot of confidence after last year. The Rays will be solid. The Yankees are always going to be the Yankees. On paper, I believe we are the favorites to finish in last place. Then again, we all know that nothing is certain. The offseason is still not over. Trades can be made.

[lospunchados]

Brilliant post mate.

 

I'd love for this season's Sox to avoid the "buy anything that moves" crowd you mention, create a good clubhouse buzz and a bit of team spirit, and fight its way back into respectability. Respectability has to come first before contention.

 

I totally agree. I don't mind the redsox becoming a respectable over the next few years and giving the farm a little more development time.

[Lucienbel]

I totally agree. I don't mind the redsox becoming a respectable over the next few years and giving the farm a little more development time.

 

Completely agreed as well. I know a lot of people here don't like the moves Cherington has made, and truthfully maybe they aren't the greatest. Dempster certainly doesn't seem to be. It does seem that the team this year will be a lot more fun than last year or the year before though.....even if they didn't get the greatest guys, there's definitely going to be more guys on the field who want to play their hardest every day than we've had in a while. That will be a nice change.

[DocHolliday]

Completely agreed as well. I know a lot of people here don't like the moves Cherington has made, and truthfully maybe they aren't the greatest. Dempster certainly doesn't seem to be. It does seem that the team this year will be a lot more fun than last year or the year before though.....even if they didn't get the greatest guys, there's definitely going to be more guys on the field who want to play their hardest every day than we've had in a while. That will be a nice change.

 

That "chip on the shoulder" attitude has certainly played a role in the last few seasons. In addition to the last 3 WS champs, each year featured atleast 2 additional teams that either made the playoffs or stayed competitive for the majority of the season (2010 Twins and Padres, 2011 Guardians and Diamondbacks, and the group of teams we saw surprise this past season).

 

When you consider the extra WCs and the increasing parity throughout the league, it's not entirely out of the realm for a team like the 2013 Red Sox to surprise people like some of the previous teams did (who shared some of the same characteristics and expectations going into their seasons). Looking around the AL, there doesn't appear to be a juggernaut team who's a shoe in to the playoffs. The Angels pitching is suspect after Weaver. Oakland's lineup is certainly suspect. The Rangers lost their best player from the last few seasons who would've been their best player in 2013. KC and the White Sox should give the Tigers a reasonable fight for the Central and we all know the East is wide open.

 

At the very least, we should expect an improvement over the Sox squad that ended last season. But if we finally get that long awaited season of better health, career averages from core players, and a few players currently in the minors who fill supportive roles on the big league club, it shouldn't be too unreasonable to expect a competitive team.

[NZSox]

That "chip on the shoulder" attitude has certainly played a role in the last few seasons. In addition to the last 3 WS champs, each year featured atleast 2 additional teams that either made the playoffs or stayed competitive for the majority of the season (2010 Twins and Padres, 2011 Guardians and Diamondbacks, and the group of teams we saw surprise this past season).

 

When you consider the extra WCs and the increasing parity throughout the league, it's not entirely out of the realm for a team like the 2013 Red Sox to surprise people like some of the previous teams did (who shared some of the same characteristics and expectations going into their seasons). Looking around the AL, there doesn't appear to be a juggernaut team who's a shoe in to the playoffs. The Angels pitching is suspect after Weaver. Oakland's lineup is certainly suspect. The Rangers lost their best player from the last few seasons who would've been their best player in 2013. KC and the White Sox should give the Tigers a reasonable fight for the Central and we all know the East is wide open.

 

At the very least, we should expect an improvement over the Sox squad that ended last season. But if we finally get that long awaited season of better health, career averages from core players, and a few players currently in the minors who fill supportive roles on the big league club, it shouldn't be too unreasonable to expect a competitive team.

 

Some good chat on this thread. Good post mate, agree with all of that.

[onlybereaved]

That "chip on the shoulder" attitude has certainly played a role in the last few seasons. In addition to the last 3 WS champs, each year featured atleast 2 additional teams that either made the playoffs or stayed competitive for the majority of the season (2010 Twins and Padres, 2011 Guardians and Diamondbacks, and the group of teams we saw surprise this past season).

 

When you consider the extra WCs and the increasing parity throughout the league, it's not entirely out of the realm for a team like the 2013 Red Sox to surprise people like some of the previous teams did (who shared some of the same characteristics and expectations going into their seasons). Looking around the AL, there doesn't appear to be a juggernaut team who's a shoe in to the playoffs. The Angels pitching is suspect after Weaver. Oakland's lineup is certainly suspect. The Rangers lost their best player from the last few seasons who would've been their best player in 2013. KC and the White Sox should give the Tigers a reasonable fight for the Central and we all know the East is wide open.

 

At the very least, we should expect an improvement over the Sox squad that ended last season. But if we finally get that long awaited season of better health, career averages from core players, and a few players currently in the minors who fill supportive roles on the big league club, it shouldn't be too unreasonable to expect a competitive team.

 

Amen.

 

In the end, it's still a game and there are variables beyond how good a team is on paper.

 

Just look at last season with the NYY dominating the AL-E and then not being able to do anything in the post-season. Look at the Tigers and countless other examples. At what point do we (the players mostly, but fans also) get away from throwing in the towel prior to the games being played (based on how the team is on paper compared to others), and start fighting to the death and playing with heart? I understand that some teams just can't compete vs. others who are fall more talented than they are in terms of odds/averages...but the Red Sox aren't some terrible team with nobody's who can't play or who are completely inferior to everyone else.

 

It sounds all Disney Mighty Ducks'd out and all, but to a point playing with heart and determination regardless of the odds/averages/competition must play a role in the outcome of the season/post-season etc

 

Good point.

[SoxSport]

I hear a lot of talk about a "youth movement", but all I see is a bunch of expensive retreads blocking any opportunity for prospects. What happens when a prospect starts tearing up AAA? He has to wait for an injury, just like Middlebrooks had to.

 

They have a veteran core. All they've done is supplement their core with more veterans. That sucks. They should be mixing in the prospects. They aren't going anywhere no matter what they do anyways. Their only hope is to have the prospects realize their upside.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I hear a lot of talk about a "youth movement", but all I see is a bunch of expensive retreads blocking any opportunity for prospects. What happens when a prospect starts tearing up AAA? He has to wait for an injury, just like Middlebrooks had to.

 

They have a veteran core. All they've done is supplement their core with more veterans. That sucks. They should be mixing in the prospects. They aren't going anywhere no matter what they do anyways. Their only hope is to have the prospects realize their upside.

 

Which prospects exactly are you referring to? Xander/Bradley are starting in AA most likely, and Iglesias clearly isn't ready to be a major league starter. Lavarnway will absolutely get plenty of AB, I think Salty gets moved and he becomes the primary guy. Kalish should also get plenty of AB as he figures to be splitting AB with Gomes. Not sure what they do with Brentz if he tears up AAA but frankly OF always get injured, I'm sure there would be an opportunity.

 

Can never have enough pitching, can't see lack of spots being a problem for any of the young arms.

[SoxSport]

Which prospects exactly are you referring to? Xander/Bradley are starting in AA most likely, and Iglesias clearly isn't ready to be a major league starter. Lavarnway will absolutely get plenty of AB, I think Salty gets moved and he becomes the primary guy. Kalish should also get plenty of AB as he figures to be splitting AB with Gomes. Not sure what they do with Brentz if he tears up AAA but frankly OF always get injured, I'm sure there would be an opportunity.

 

Can never have enough pitching, can't see lack of spots being a problem for any of the young arms.

 

They have no spots for any of their 3 top pitching prospects. Kalish or Nava are out.

Salty has to get moved for Lav to see any PT. The one kid they need to deal is Iggy--to a team that values good field/no hit SSs.

 

My guess is their prospects will be ready long before those 3 year contracts expire. If they are going to be ready. Maybe the team will be sold by then.

[Bellhorn04]

They have no spots for any of their 3 top pitching prospects. Kalish or Nava are out.

Salty has to get moved for Lav to see any PT. The one kid they need to deal is Iggy--to a team that values good field/no hit SSs.

 

My guess is their prospects will be ready long before those 3 year contracts expire. If they are going to be ready. Maybe the team will be sold by then.

 

On average, teams need 8-10 starters to get through the year. Any good pitching prospects will get their shot. Starting pitching prospects haven't been the ones that have gotten held back by the Sox.

 

Not that we've ever had a great abundance of them.

[redsoxfan3]

I hear a lot of talk about a "youth movement", but all I see is a bunch of expensive retreads blocking any opportunity for prospects. What happens when a prospect starts tearing up AAA? He has to wait for an injury, just like Middlebrooks had to.

 

They have a veteran core. All they've done is supplement their core with more veterans. That sucks. They should be mixing in the prospects. They aren't going anywhere no matter what they do anyways. Their only hope is to have the prospects realize their upside.

 

We need players to fill the holes in our lineup until this so called "youth movement" can take place. Bradley, Xander, Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa, Brentz, etc. are not currently ready. Iglesias and Lavarnway are both question marks. The only young player that is currently ready is Middlebrooks, who is no longer a prospect.

 

I think you are missing a huge factor. We are only signing one, two, and three year contracts. We are not signing outrageous long-term contracts. We cannot just have guys like Nava, Kalish, Gomez, etc. filling in positions. This team will be horrible. We have at least improved our team short-term until some of the prospects are ready. It could be a couple of years before guys like Bradley and Xander are ready.

 

Iglesias is going to battle Drew for the starting SS position in Spring Training. The position is not just going to be handed to Drew. Iglesias could be in AAA or he could be in a platoon role with Drew. Odds are Drew wins the position. Signing Drew was a move that means the FO does not have a lot of confidence in Iglesias' bat. Xander is going to push Iglesias, and it would not surprise me if we have a guy like Drew around until Xander is ready to take over at SS (there is even a chance that he can switch positions). At this point, I don't think the FO is viewing Iglesias as our future SS, although there is still time for him to prove himself.

 

I don't really see any of the current signings blocking anyone. There are really not many major league ready prospects. When the time comes and some of the prospects are ready, then we can evaluate and take care of the problem as it comes. At least the contracts are short-term deals. We have to fill current position needs with established players, we cannot expect that guys like Bradley or Xander are going to be ready to make a huge contribution this season.

[Lord Snow]

The best way to build a team that contends is to sign "can't miss" free agent bats, and trade prospects for elite, young, starting pitching. The Red Sox got their hands tied up quite a bit with some mediocre contracts. If you look back mediocre contracts almost never pay off. Low-risk cheap gambles (1-year $4-8M) pay far better dividends than signing these players in their early-to-mid-30s to 3-years $30M+

 

The only time it's really worth signing an SP to a contract worth more than $20M is if an elite arm hits the market (e.g. Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, etc). The same is true of position players. Signing players like Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli to $13M/yr contracts year-in and year-out is pissing away money. It makes far more sense to go after the elite hitters. In recent memory Mark Teixeira comes to mind. Now, he has regressed but is still worthy of a spot in the middle of the order.

 

Stay away from big money ($30M+) free agent contracts on players who in their 30s!

 

Then fill in the holes with home grown mediocre talent, and cheap short-term free agents.

[redsoxfan3]

The best way to build a team that contends is to sign "can't miss" free agent bats, and trade prospects for elite, young, starting pitching. The Red Sox got their hands tied up quite a bit with some mediocre contracts. If you look back mediocre contracts almost never pay off. Low-risk cheap gambles (1-year $4-8M) pay far better dividends than signing these players in their early-to-mid-30s to 3-years $30M+

 

The only time it's really worth signing an SP to a contract worth more than $20M is if an elite arm hits the market (e.g. Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, etc). The same is true of position players. Signing players like Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli to $13M/yr contracts year-in and year-out is pissing away money. It makes far more sense to go after the elite hitters. In recent memory Mark Teixeira comes to mind. Now, he has regressed but is still worthy of a spot in the middle of the order.

 

Then fill in the holes with home grown mediocre talent, and cheap short-term free agents.

 

I am interested in knowing some can't miss free agent bats that you are talking about. I don't consider Hamilton one. With the amount of money he wanted, it is a gamble. Three year contracts are not all that bad. The only reason these short-terms contracts have a high AAV is because we have the financial flexibility to do so.

 

Napoli, Swisher, and LaRoche were the best FA first base options. We got one in Napoli, who can hit for power. Three years for him is not that bad. It is not like we will be tied down with him for seven years (assuming the deal does not fall through).

 

Victorino's AAV is way too high, but in terms of years, it is not that bad. He is only here for three years and can play all three OF positions. Ellsbury is probably going to the hit the FA market in 2014, so Victorino can fill in the void in CF in 2014 and 2015. Hopefully at some point during that time, Bradley will be ready to go and can take over during or after Victorino's contract. It is not a bad signing.

 

There are not a lot "can miss" free agent bats. The same goes for pitching. We are signing short-term contracts that will help this team out. There are not too many options. I really don't have a problem with your approach, but with a limited FA market, I don't think we are making bad decisions. We have a better team now then we did at the end of last year. That is a positive.

[SoxSport]

Their best way was to sign Hamilton. I guess they forgot Manny Ramirez was a big factor in them winning 2 championships. He and Ortiz were devastating in their prime in the middle of the lineup.

Hamilton is the same type of hitter as Manny. Funny they haven't done a damn thing since Manny got traded to the Dodgers in '08. Bay gave them one good year--they lucked out with him. Hamilton would have filled the middle of the lineup. They might have had him for 5 years if they were aggressive early.

 

Henry never liked that Manny contract. 10 years at $20 mil per. But Manny was a heckuva lot better sign than Crawford or AdGon who cost them dearly in prospects. Those deals plus Lackey have wrecked the team for years to come. Poor management has gotten them to where they are right now. The MLB TV guys have them staying in the cellar in the AL East. Nothing they have done so far has changed that--and they've managed to spend right back to near the cap again. Amazing.

 

The other thing they need is a top flight starter. Like when they got Pedro or Schilling.

But nobody of that level is available. Greinke isn't in that class. They need to develop one from within. Maybe DeLaRosa--could be a dominating pitcher.