Bill James (and any other) 2013 Projections

[SoxFanForsyth]

Thought this deserved its own thread.

 

Bill James projections are up on Fangraphs.

 

He actually really likes the Red Sox rotation right now, with 3 of the SP going over 200 IP (Lackey, Doubront, Lester) and Buch going 190. Doubie projects a 3.70 era, Lester a 3.71, Buchholz a 3.64, and Lackey a 4.05.

 

Offensively, the team looks good.

Middlebrooks is projected at .277, .806 OPS, 29 HR, 99 RBI.

Pedroia has a bounce back season, .296/.367/.459, 17 HR.

Ellsbury hits 15 HR, .294/.346/.436, 37 SB

Ortiz projects at .283/.386/.533, 32 HR, 103 RBI

Lavarnway projects to have a solid rookie season. .261/.335/.435, 16 HR, 66 RBI (115 G)

 

As for the acquisitions - Napoli projects at .248/.350/.469, 29 HR, 75 RBI, 127 G. Although I see Napoli more as a 150 game player, which would give him 34 HR, 89 HR.

 

Victorino: .269/.338/.418, 14 HR, 29 2B, 7 3B, 29 SB, 85 R.

[iortiz]

Seems very optimistic to me, but would be great if true.

[User Name]

The usually conservative Bill James estimations seems painfully optimistic to me. If any pitcher other than Lester hits James' benchmarks for 2013, consider me completely and utterly surprised.

[RedSoxNC84]

I'm guessing this is why we haven't seen any major pitching moves yet

[DocHolliday]

As much as I take note of these types of predictions, I don't think Bill James - or anyone for that matter - could have predicted absolutely random stats that had an impact on final outcome, like the 29-9 Orioles record in 1 run games.

 

Even though there has been publicized feelings about the lack of James being involved with recent personnel decisions, I think these stats, particularly the pitching stats, should be taken with a big grain of salt. The Sox pitching has been an issue for several seasons now, so it makes sense that such stats related to the same pitchers who have had issues in the last few seasons would suddenly put up a season of significant improvement.

[jung]

Maybe they specifically hired James back to convince them that their pitching is fine after all. I am going to stick my neck out and "project" that it would take an almost unrealistic amount of good fortune for those pitchers to hit those marks for ERA and innings pitched.

 

I would hazard to guess that if you looked at guys that actually recorded those kinds of ERA AND innings pitched numbers in the AL East, you would also find guys that were considered to have had banner years. So coming off of TJ (Lackey), coming out of a very difficult year with work to to (Lester) and in what is basically his sophomore year not having really shown any indication of going bonkers in year two (Felix) we already have 3 guys that are going to have banner years??

 

Come on over to the dark side Mr James. You would make an excellent fan.

[mvp 78]

Ah yes, the all important need to give James a bigger say in the FO. They clearly don't need SP help! They'll be fine!

 

What were his Sox projections for 2012?

[SoxSport]

Thought this deserved its own thread.

 

Bill James projections are up on Fangraphs.

 

He actually really likes the Red Sox rotation right now, with 3 of the SP going over 200 IP (Lackey, Doubront, Lester) and Buch going 190. Doubie projects a 3.70 era, Lester a 3.71, Buchholz a 3.64, and Lackey a 4.05.

 

Offensively, the team looks good.

Middlebrooks is projected at .277, .806 OPS, 29 HR, 99 RBI.

Pedroia has a bounce back season, .296/.367/.459, 17 HR.

Ellsbury hits 15 HR, .294/.346/.436, 37 SB

Ortiz projects at .283/.386/.533, 32 HR, 103 RBI

Lavarnway projects to have a solid rookie season. .261/.335/.435, 16 HR, 66 RBI (115 G)

 

As for the acquisitions - Napoli projects at .248/.350/.469, 29 HR, 75 RBI, 127 G. Although I see Napoli more as a 150 game player, which would give him 34 HR, 89 HR.

 

Victorino: .269/.338/.418, 14 HR, 29 2B, 7 3B, 29 SB, 85 R.

 

Pretty solid. He always understates stats. Wonder what he thinks the needs are. I figured they wouldn't go after the FA pitchers. They need room for the pitching prospects to have a chance to win one or two slots.

[mvp 78]

Come on over to the dark side Mr James. You would make an excellent fan.

He's worse than a fan, he's an employee.

[jung]

I hate to say this but the Sox FO is still a bunch of clowns. Having "announced" to the world that James would be paid more heed, now we have a FO that is just going to point in his direction when somebody starts looking for some heads to lop off.

 

1-2-3

1. Sox announce James is back to much fanfare

2. BC publicly offers that the key to the Sox pitching is not in who they can bring in but in the current rotation pitching to its "potential" and surprisingly makes a move for Dempster (much longed for by the Sox for God only knows why) but not much else. Fortunately, Soxed saved by Dempster himself.

3. James projections posted

 

In all honesty, much as I mused last year, this team is going nowhere without a major infusion at the management and FO level...ours is infested with snakes, tired old men and buck passers and for as long as the snakes and buck passers remain around the rest is likely an exercise in futility.

[DocHolliday]

Maybe they specifically hired James back to convince them that their pitching is fine after all. I am going to stick my neck out and "project" that it would take an almost unrealistic amount of good fortune for those pitchers to hit those marks for ERA and innings pitched.

 

I would hazard to guess that if you looked at guys that actually recorded those kinds of ERA AND innings pitched numbers in the AL East, you would also find guys that were considered to have had banner years. So coming off of TJ (Lackey), coming out of a very difficult year with work to to (Lester) and in what is basically his sophomore year not having really shown any indication of going bonkers in year two (Felix) we already have 3 guys that are going to have banner years??

 

Come on over to the dark side Mr James. You would make an excellent fan.

 

Even if the Sox FO believed that these projections were either conservative or accurate, why wouldn't they see this as an opportunity in a year when the division was as wide open as its been in years and sign some FA pitchers to short term, mid level AAV to add depth?

 

The Rays just dealt their 2nd starter and, for the time being, have a questionable offense and a back end of the bullpen coming off a spectacular season. The Orioles had a season of the ages for good fortune and unexpected performance. The Jays just moved all their chips to the middle of the table banking on some big ? marks in the moves they made. And the Yankees have an aging and expensive roster, which, coupled with their determination to get below the luxury tax threshold, seems to be hindering their ability to supplement it for next year.

 

Maybe they are just waiting out the market until the top FA SP come off the board and will pick up the leftovers on team friendly deals (which wouldn't be a bad strategy if the caliber of pitchers leftover is reliable and doesn't cost them a draft pick). But I'm afraid if they keep waiting, they will be left sacrificing on one of those fronts (more likely, the reliability front) and be forced into the same dumpster diving fixes that haven't panned out for them in the past (penny, Smoltz, cook, etc.)

 

They still have the financial flexibility to sign SP at the middle range of the $ in hopes of adding quality to the back end of the rotation without forcing them into a LT predicament. In addition, they have depth in other areas outside of the rotation that other teams would be willing to trade them the SP depth they need.

 

Hopefully they recognize this and are weighing options to figure out what is in the best interest of the team- while recognizing that they aren't the only team looking for depth and each passing day without movement could take more viable options off the board.

[Lucienbel]

This might be worth a laugh. I'm really interested in where he thinks Lackey and Doubront will end up pitching those innings. I'd expect Doubront and Lackey to probably be more around 150-160, and I really think that might even be being a little nice. Hopefully the front office isn't listening to him too much. I'd assume the offensive numbers are probably a little closer...assuming everyone stays healthy.

[jung]

I am not sure I can any longer trust these guys weighing the option of which hand to whip their collective ass with. I don't think I have ever been more disgusted with this den of thieves. Please God save the Red Sox from these idiots.

 

Tom Yawkey was Tom Yawkey. Eccentric on a scale with Ray Kroc in his own way, placed where he was historically, a true remnant of WWII if not WWI. "What....a black ballplayer in a Red Sox uniform....not while I'm around!" Herrington and his crew was a throw back. Next came a bunch of caretakers. At least JH brought us two championships and in reality I will forever be grateful for that. But in all honesty...it is time to go. If the only way to get competent management in here is for JH to leave town then so be it. However nothing is going to get better as long as the Keystone Kops routine continues down at Fenway.

 

I suddenly feel bad for Farrell. Probably will be driven to the therapist's couch in about a year or so. "Ben I am not quite sure I grasp the plan with regard to catching for our ML team. How do you think we will start the season."

 

"I don't know John, ask Bill."

 

"Ask Bill....you are still the GM...right Ben."

 

"I don't know John, ask Bill."

 

"Well Ben, do you think I should stick my head between my legs and kiss my own ass."

 

"I don't know John, ask Bill."

[User Name]

I hate to say this but the Sox FO is still a bunch of clowns. Having "announced" to the world that James would be paid more heed, now we have a FO that is just going to point in his direction when somebody starts looking for some heads to lop off.

 

1-2-3

1. Sox announce James is back to much fanfare

2. BC publicly offers that the key to the Sox pitching is not in who they can bring in but in the current rotation pitching to its "potential" and surprisingly makes a move for Dempster (much longed for by the Sox for God only knows why) but not much else. Fortunately, Soxed saved by Dempster himself.

3. James projections posted

 

In all honesty, much as I mused last year, this team is going nowhere without a major infusion at the management and FO level...ours is infested with snakes, tired old men and buck passers and for as long as the snakes and buck passers remain around the rest is likely an exercise in futility.

 

James doesn't "make" these projections himself. The fangraphs staff uses his formula to calculate the projections. They seem to be a lot more optimistic for pitchers everywhere, not just the Red Sox. Guys like Adam Wainwright (210 IP, 3.33 ERA) and Rick Porcello (168 IP, 4.50 ERA) have very optimistic projections despite some past issues.

[lospunchados]

I'm not sure about where he gets the innings projections from but some of the era ones seem possible. The redsox got better defensively and if they trade salty they will throw out a lot more than the 18 out 98 baserunners that Salty threw out. that would help the pitchers era a decent amount ( Ross has a career 38.8% caught stealing rate)

 

Last year he didn't project well for redsox starters but he has been very close in other years.

[jacksonianmarch]

So James has Buchholz throwing a career high in innings and SFF, you have Napoli going for 150 games? Seems like James might be skewing his numbers a bit to please his bosses.

[BSN07]

So James has Buchholz throwing a career high in innings and SFF, you have Napoli going for 150 games? Seems like James might be skewing his numbers a bit to please his bosses.

 

You could say that if it was James making these predictions. But he's not. It's the fangraphs teams using James formula.

 

People are jumping on the guy for being a homer and he had nothing to do with it

 

hahahaha idiots

[SoxFanForsyth]

So James has Buchholz throwing a career high in innings and SFF, you have Napoli going for 150 games? Seems like James might be skewing his numbers a bit to please his bosses.

 

Napoli playing almost exclusively 1B rather than catching 65 games a year? Yeah I think he will be playing 150.

 

And Buch threw 189.1 IP in 2012. Man. How outrageous for James to predict him to get one more DP ball!! James is a homer!!!111!

 

Not like he does this exclusively for the Sox, either. He does it for every player.

[SoxFanForsyth]

As a side note, he also has our pen looking pretty strong.

 

Bailey: 36 saves, 2.81 ERA

Tazawa: 65 IP, 2.49 ERA

Uehara: 40 IP, 2.25 ERA

Bard: 67 IP, 3.63 ERA

Aceves:88 IP, 3.68 ERA

Breslow: 62 IP, 3.19 ERA

Melancon: 57 IP, 3.47 ERA

 

Give me that pen all freaking day please.

[BSN07]

For the love of God these are "Fangraph" projections using a Bill James formula... He did not predict anything for anyone on the Sox or anyone else in the league.

[a700hitter]

I am curious does anyone know what Bill James' 2012 projections were for Bard?

 

Also, how many years in prison did James project for Joe Paterno for obstruction of justice in the Sandusky case.

 

They need to get this fantasy team guru out of management and hire more top scouts.

[SoxFanForsyth]

For the love of God these are "Fangraph" projections using a Bill James formula... He did not predict anything for anyone on the Sox or anyone else in the league.

 

You're just splitting hairs.

 

It's his formula, published on Fangraphs.

[User Name]

You're just splitting hairs.

 

It's his formula, published on Fangraphs.

 

He's not directing it at you. He's directing it at people saying James "skewed" the numbers. Read, then respond.

[User Name]

Napoli playing almost exclusively 1B rather than catching 65 games a year? Yeah I think he will be playing 150.

 

And Buch threw 189.1 IP in 2012. Man. How outrageous for James to predict him to get one more DP ball!! James is a homer!!!111!

 

Not like he does this exclusively for the Sox, either. He does it for every player.

 

He doesn't do it. He provides the formula, FanGraphs staff does it. The point of this clarification is to let people know that James doesn't "create" these predictions one by one.

[SoxFanForsyth]

He's not directing it at you. He's directing it at people saying James "skewed" the numbers. Read, then respond.

 

I did read. You didn't.

 

I saw his post saying James didn't make these projections.

 

Then I saw two posts by me.

 

Then I saw another post by him saying James doesn't make these projections.

 

What am I missing? Or did you miss it?

[User Name]

Look at the post by Jacko he quoted. That's what you missed. Again, he wasn't directing it at you.

[a700hitter]

Here were some 2012 projections using a method allegedly similar to James' method:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/721022-post14.html

 

So much for projections.

[BSN07]

Here were some 2012 projections using a method allegedly similar to James' method:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/721022-post14.html

 

So much for projections.

 

It's why they are called projections not guarantee's

[iortiz]

Here were some 2012 projections using a method allegedly similar to James' method:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/721022-post14.html

 

So much for projections.

 

We need to add two arms if we want certainty next season, otherwise, cross fingers!

[SoxFanForsyth]

Look at the post by Jacko he quoted. That's what you missed. Again, he wasn't directing it at you.

 

Are you somehow missing his 2nd post that didn't quote Jackso?

 

Doesn't matter. We got it cleared up. Certainly not worth any kind of argument.