Rotation

[Bellhorn04]

One of the CERA comparisons for which the sample sizes were too small was Melancon. But I have to show this one anyway, for laughs if nothing else.

 

Melancon with Lavarnway IP 11.1 ERA 1.59

Melancon with Shoppach IP 7.2 ERA 2.35

Melancon with Salty IP 26 ERA 9.35

 

I'm sure we all remember a few of those Melancon outings where he got bombed. Just to refresh our memories:

 

April 8 0.2 IP 3 ER

April 17 0.0 IP 6 ER

July 22 0.1 IP 4 ER

July 27 1.0 IP 4 ER

Aug 31 0.2 IP 4 ER

 

As you can probably guess, Salty was behind the plate for every one of these debacles. Weird.

[Lucienbel]

One of the CERA comparisons for which the sample sizes were too small was Melancon. But I have to show this one anyway, for laughs if nothing else.

 

Melancon with Lavarnway IP 11.1 ERA 1.59

Melancon with Shoppach IP 7.2 ERA 2.35

Melancon with Salty IP 26 ERA 9.35

 

I'm sure we all remember a few of those Melancon outings where he got bombed. Just to refresh our memories:

 

April 8 0.2 IP 3 ER

April 17 0.0 IP 6 ER

July 22 0.1 IP 4 ER

July 27 1.0 IP 4 ER

Aug 31 0.2 IP 4 ER

 

As you can probably guess, Salty was behind the plate for every one of these debacles. Weird.

 

Correct. I was thinking sample size in a strictly statistical sense...sorry, hadn't looked at the other numbers in this thread yet.

 

As for run of the mill every day usage of the word "sample size", I'm certainly not going to disagree with you. I've seen enough where I want him gone.

[wyo-sox]

So you really think Melancon is a 1.5 - 2.3 era pitcher? And I'm sure you would say you don't ....... but then what's the point of this type of post? For fun? I mean there are some real obvious things about Saltys game not to like.... I don't see the logic in trying to hunt down and blame era's on him.

 

Should be just as fun to point out Franklin Morales:

Shop. IP 22. era of 4.91

Salt. IP 51. era of 2.96

 

Or just as fun to look at Dice K (all though looking at Dice K was never fun)

Shop. IP 5. era of 7.20

Salty. IP 27. era of 5.93

 

Now I am not saying Salty is the better catcher in any of these....... but to draw any conclusions on the pitchers era you would have to explain both sides of the coin.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Great article on Lackey (link here)

 

Couple excerpts that stood out for me:

 

"Lackey defied the pain in his elbow in 2011, pitching games against his better judgment because there wasn’t anybody else available. A surgeon later told him the bone spur he plucked out of his arm was the largest he had ever seen."

 

"Lackey pitched in increasing discomfort for much of the 2011 season.

 

He said that the Red Sox medical staff — which has all since been replaced — misled him.

 

“When you get an MRI after the season and your doctor asks what the hell you were doing pitching, you get the idea that somebody wasn’t being honest with you,” he said. “But I took the ball. That is what you do.”

 

I know most people on here absolutely despise the guy, but to his credit, I'm not sure how many pitchers on our staff would have gone out there with a massive bone spur in their elbow and tried to compete with their elbow hurting so bad they couldn't even throw a pen.

 

Lackey certainly gets a bad rap, and that's fine, he's much more concerned with being a stand up guy to his teammates than to the fans, and I'd rather see it that way than the other way around.

 

Here's to hoping that he turns it around and has a great year in 2013. It would certainly go a long way in getting the Sox back in contention.

[Bellhorn04]

So you really think Melancon is a 1.5 - 2.3 era pitcher? And I'm sure you would say you don't ....... but then what's the point of this type of post? For fun? I mean there are some real obvious things about Saltys game not to like.... I don't see the logic in trying to hunt down and blame era's on him.

 

Should be just as fun to point out Franklin Morales:

Shop. IP 22. era of 4.91

Salt. IP 51. era of 2.96

 

Or just as fun to look at Dice K (all though looking at Dice K was never fun)

Shop. IP 5. era of 7.20

Salty. IP 27. era of 5.93

 

Now I am not saying Salty is the better catcher in any of these....... but to draw any conclusions on the pitchers era you would have to explain both sides of the coin.

 

I'm not out to get Salty. I'm just shocked and appalled at the meltdown of our pitching in Sept/11 and the 2012 season and searching for explanations. Salty represents one possible explanation. But you're right that the numbers don't just simply point in his direction. If he isn't traded we'll be getting lots more data to analyze this year.

[a700hitter]

He said that the Red Sox medical staff — which has all since been replaced — misled him.

 

“When you get an MRI after the season and your doctor asks what the hell you were doing pitching, you get the idea that somebody wasn’t being honest with you,” he said. “But I took the ball. That is what you do.”

If Lackey believes that he got screwed over by the Red Sox medical staff, I find it hard to believe that he will go balls to the wall for the Red Sox this season who will rthen exercise their option to pay him the league minimum in 2014. If Lackey is healthy, he will try to get out of that option, especially since he thinks the Sox medical staff screwed him over.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If Lackey believes that he got screwed over by the Red Sox medical staff, I find it hard to believe that he will go balls to the wall for the Red Sox this season who will rthen exercise their option to pay him the league minimum in 2014. If Lackey is healthy, he will try to get out of that option, especially since he thinks the Sox medical staff screwed him over.

 

Two things.

 

First, if you read the article, it has quotes of him essentially saying he's out to change the perception of him.

 

Second, the entire medical staff has changed. So while he thinks they screwed him over, it's an entire different staff now.

 

This is the same guy who told his family not even to come to the games at Fenway because of the fans. I hardly think he's going to want to exacerbate that.

[a700hitter]

Two things.

 

First, if you read the article, it has quotes of him essentially saying he's out to change the perception of him.

 

Second, the entire medical staff has changed. So while he thinks they screwed him over, it's an entire different staff now.

 

This is the same guy who told his family not even to come to the games at Fenway because of the fans. I hardly think he's going to want to exacerbate that.

If he is healthy, I don't see him wanting to honor that option year for league minimum. There is just not very much honor among athletes when it comes to the almighty $. Only time will tell if he has integrity. I'm not saying that he will refuse to play for us. It will be more subtle than that. Maybe he dogs it this season to the point where we don't exercise his option and he catches on with another team for an MLB contract with incentives.

 

Also, I am amazed at the public relations campaign by the Sox to have us pin our 2013 hopes on Lackey. Seriously, they have nothing going for them if they are making John Lackey the poster boy for our 2013 hopes and dreams. The guy has always sucked at Fenway, even in his Angel years.

[wyo-sox]

I'm not out to get Salty. I'm just shocked and appalled at the meltdown of our pitching in Sept/11 and the 2012 season and searching for explanations. Salty represents one possible explanation. But you're right that the numbers don't just simply point in his direction. If he isn't traded we'll be getting lots more data to analyze this year.

 

Well I am sure we agree on much more than we disagree on in t these matters. Here is to hoping a couple of our pitchers do turn it around, with any catcher that will help. I do suspect one of the catchers gets traded at some point. They probably want to see if Salty moves forward in his progression, If Lavs can hit better and how durable Ross can be.

[jung]

Like I said in earlier posts Lackey has already proven to me that he will take the ball under any circumstances, pitch as hard as he can, and stay out there until somebody goes to get him. In fact he will likely be dragged from the mound kicking and screaming regardless.

 

I have been critical of Lackey for the way he seems to visibly dis his teammates while he is on the mound but it is hard for me to criticize him outside of that. If you want to criticize somebody that deserves it, criticize the front office that left this team so lacking in pitching that Lackey had to go out there like that every 5th day.

 

The guy does seem to be something of a big clod. If he thinks being caught in uniform with a beer in each hand while he is not playing and the team is going in the tank is particularly endearing to fans, thing again ya' big lummox. I don't know. Lackey must have found being around the team to be somewhat therapeutic in some way.

 

Hey you know how it is here. If he pitches well all will be forgiven. If he does not, we will likely all rip him to shreds.

[Behindenemylines]

Best case for Lackey is that he is healthy and he can pitch close to where he was at with the Angels. If he is the 5th starter then that would be a positive for the Sox. Sox need as many positives with their SP that they can get to be competitive in the AL where I see at least 6 teams on paper better then us.

[BSN07]

If he is healthy, I don't see him wanting to honor that option year for league minimum. There is just not very much honor among athletes when it comes to the almighty $. Only time will tell if he has integrity. I'm not saying that he will refuse to play for us. It will be more subtle than that. Maybe he dogs it this season to the point where we don't exercise his option and he catches on with another team for an MLB contract with incentives.

 

Also, I am amazed at the public relations campaign by the Sox to have us pin our 2013 hopes on Lackey. Seriously, they have nothing going for them if they are making John Lackey the poster boy for our 2013 hopes and dreams. The guy has always sucked at Fenway, even in his Angel years.

 

I don't think we need to worry. I don't see ol moose-knuckle finishing his contract in Boston. He may be here all season, but after that I think he will get traded. The league minimum year will be valuable to other teams. The Marlins would probably trip over themselves trying to get him

[Palodios]

Also, I am amazed at the public relations campaign by the Sox to have us pin our 2013 hopes on Lackey. Seriously, they have nothing going for them if they are making John Lackey the poster boy for our 2013 hopes and dreams. The guy has always sucked at Fenway, even in his Angel years.

 

This one simply isn't true. His career ERA at Fenway is skewed by his 2011 numbers.

[Dojji]

No it isn't. It's one of the reasons that I was pulling my hair out when they signed him. Lackey's numbers against the Red Sox at Fenway were dismal. We always handled him here.

 

There's no denying that his numbers got worse after 2011, but they were always bad here.

[a700hitter]

This one simply isn't true. His career ERA at Fenway is skewed by his 2011 numbers.

I remember him getting hit pretty hard by us, but my that was based on my recollection.

[Dojji]

Your recollection was not wrong. His ERA at Fenway was in the high 4's low 5's when he signed on in Boston.

[Palodios]

Your recollection was not wrong. His ERA at Fenway was in the high 4's low 5's when he signed on in Boston.

 

I literally looked at his stats two seconds ago. After all these years, do I really have to waste my time proving you wrong, or can you take my word for it one fricken time?

 

2011 -- Fenway -- 6.65

2011 -- Total -- 6.41

2010 -- Fenway 4.34

2010-- Total 4.40

2009 -- Fenway -- 2.35

2009 -- Total -- 3.83

2008 -- Fenway 2.00

2008 -- Total 3.75.

2007 -- Fenway 8.38

2007 -- Total 3.01

2006 -- Fenway 4.50

2006-- Total 3.50

2005-- Fenway 3.00

2005 -- Total 3.40

 

Lackey had a rough year in 2007, but besides that he's been pretty much around career averages. Considering how explosive the Red Sox offense was from 2005-2008, hard to blame him for a bad game.

[a700hitter]

I literally looked at his stats two seconds ago. After all these years, do I really have to waste my time proving you wrong, or can you take my word for it one fricken time?

 

2011 -- Fenway -- 6.65

2011 -- Total -- 6.41

2010 -- Fenway 4.34

2010-- Total 4.40

2009 -- Fenway -- 2.35

2009 -- Total -- 3.83

2008 -- Fenway 2.00

2008 -- Total 3.75.

2007 -- Fenway 8.38

2007 -- Total 3.01

2006 -- Fenway 4.50

2006-- Total 3.50

2005-- Fenway 3.00

2005 -- Total 3.40

 

Lackey had a rough year in 2007, but besides that he's been pretty much around career averages. Considering how explosive the Red Sox offense was from 2005-2008, hard to blame him for a bad game.

He got hammered at Fenway in 2004 (10.80 ERA) and 2003 (9.90 ERA - 2 starts) too.

[a700hitter]

It looks like overall he was not good at Fenway during his Angel years.

[Bellhorn04]

Lackey's final 3 outings at Fenway as an Angel, including 1 postseason, were all very good. I'm sure that entered into the assessment of him.

 

July 29/08 9.0 IP 2 ER

Oct 1/08 (ALDS) 7.0 IP 2 ER

Sept 15/09 7.2 IP 2 ER

[Palodios]

He got hammered at Fenway in 2004 (10.80 ERA) and 2003 (9.90 ERA - 2 starts) too.

 

I added additional years to prove a point. Looking at statistics from ten years ago is really not that relevant.

[a700hitter]

I added additional years to prove a point. Looking at statistics from ten years ago is really not that relevant.

The whole discussion isn't relevant as we have been debating a throw away line in a post where I said:

 

Also, I am amazed at the public relations campaign by the Sox to have us pin our 2013 hopes on Lackey. Seriously, they have nothing going for them if they are making John Lackey the poster boy for our 2013 hopes and dreams. The guy has always sucked at Fenway, even in his Angel years.

 

The point that I was making is that it is pretty desperate that our fortunes are tied to Lackey in 2013. His record at Fenway is not that relevant. You said that my statement that he sucked at Fenway was not true. Doji disagreed, and we digressed. Overall, his Fenway record with the Angels has been spotty at best, and there were periods where we downright hammered him, but as I said, his Fenway record as an Angel is not really relevant.

[Dojji]

It's relevant to the extent that this is what he did when he was healthy, now that health is subject to reasonable question.

 

I count on nothing from John Lackey.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I can't seem to find anything on my phone, but does anyone know the success rate for pitchers after TJS?

 

Edit: When I mean success, I mean played better then they did before the surgery.

[a700hitter]

It's relevant to the extent that this is what he did when he was healthy, now that health is subject to reasonable question.

 

I count on nothing from John Lackey.

He was never a great pitcher and we have seen the worst of him. He's 34 and and post-op. He has been the poster boy for bad FA contracts for pitchers, and now, the Sox are trying to sell us on him as reason to be optimistic. Are they freakin kidding?

[Palodios]

The whole discussion isn't relevant as we have been debating a throw away line

 

Generally in my arguments here, I always like to make sure that if players on this team are disliked, they are actually disliked for the correct reason. There are plenty of reasons to dislike Lackey, but saying he's been historically worse at Fenway than anywhere else is not one of them.

[jung]

Well you could look at the FO PR job on Lackey as further evidence that they are not bringing anybody else in. What we got is what we got I think.

[wyo-sox]

Well you could look at the FO PR job on Lackey as further evidence that they are not bringing anybody else in. What we got is what we got I think.

 

I believe you are correct. Here is to holding our breath and seeing if what we got can turn it around.

[Spitball]

I can't seem to find anything on my phone, but does anyone know the success rate for pitchers after TJS?

 

Edit: When I mean success, I mean played better then they did before the surgery.

 

I believe Chris Carpenter came back better after his first TJ surgery. There have been some who have returned at about the same level like Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, and Stephen Straberg. There are some who are still trying to find their way back like Adam Wainright, Francisco Liriano, and Edinson Volquez.

 

I am skeptical of the belief that pitchers return from TJ surgery throwing harder than before.

[a700hitter]

Generally in my arguments here, I always like to make sure that if players on this team are disliked, they are actually disliked for the correct reason. There are plenty of reasons to dislike Lackey, but saying he's been historically worse at Fenway than anywhere else is not one of them.

You are right about that. Since we have had him, he has stunk everywhere.