Rotation

[Palodios]

You are right about that. Since we have had him, he has stunk everywhere.

 

You see, that's something I won't argue with you about, because its completely true:lol:

[SoxFanForsyth]

Player A: 201 IP, 4.84 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 1.403 WHIP

 

Player B: 205.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.383 WHIP

 

Player A: Justin Verlander, 2008

Player B: Jon Lester, 2012

 

Let's not write off Lester quite yet.

[Dojji]

Verlander was 25, Lester is 28. Doesn't sound like a big difference, but it's pretty significant.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Verlander was 25, Lester is 28. Doesn't sound like a big difference, but it's pretty significant.

 

Well, Lester also is coming off of much more sustained success than Verlander.

 

In his 4 years leading up to 2012, Lester had a 3.33 ERA and a 135 ERA+.

 

Verlander has 2 years leading up to his 2008 season, in which he posted a 3.64 ERA and a 125 ERA+.

 

If anything, Lester's poor season was more of an aberration than Verlanders.

 

Regardless, the whole point of this was to show that pitchers have down years, and it doesn't define their future success at all.

[Dojji]

That part is true. No reason Lester can't recover. That said some do, and some don't.

[jacksonianmarch]

Verlander in 2006 was decent in his rookie campaign. He pitched to contact for the most part and got a ton of outs and was effective. His 2007, he effectively threw the same amount of innings as the yr before, but his K rate rose significantly and led him to throw over 400 pitches more in that season. Come 2008, he was still searching for an identity and his arm was tired as evidenced by his career low 93.6mph average fastball. What happened the following yr? His arm rebounded and he added a slider and the rest is history.

 

Jon Lester, OTOH, crossed the 3000 pitch markin 2008 and hasnt looked back. If you are looking at this from a fatigue POV, you would have expected a dropoff in 2009, but you didnt see that. What you saw was sustained dominance through 2010. You saw a very strong 2011 and then a terrible 2012. Why might that have happened to a guy so young? Well, his FB velo is down nearly 1.5mph and his cutter velo is up over 1mph. The increased velo is taking away some of its bite and flattening it out at nearly the same speed on the same plane leading to it getting hit. You also are seeing his changeup increase in speed as well. You also are seeing a guy who cannot command his pitches in the zone anymore. While he may never recover his lost velocity, his other flaws are correctable assuming he doesnt be an obstinate ass and insist on doing things like Beckett did, alone and without input from anyone else. He is no longer a guy anyone considers as one of the elite pitchers in the game and likely won't return to that level of dominance, but he very well can return to a 200IP, 8K/9IP pitcher with an ERA around or below 4.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Jackso you need to have a look at this article:

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/02/07/can-jon-lester-bounce-back-history-offers-some

[jung]

The thing I remember about the second half of the season for Jon was the phenomenal amount of concentration he seemed to be using up to get the ball to the plate. On the one hand it left little room for the on the mound and in the dugout antics we saw from him that grew to a be so obvious. I am less inclined to think he "learned" not to do that assuming that is one of the things Jon is quoted about in the article. I just think he was working so hard to get the ball to the plate that there was just no room for the ********. Assuming I am right about that, I would like to see Jon pitch more naturally again, not have to concentrate so hard just to get the ball to the plate but not have the antics as well.

 

While agree that it was a terrible year for Lester...I really did not think he got enough credit for working like he did not to fall completely apart the later half of the year. We have seen pitchers fall completely apart. So it would not have been all that unusual for Lester to have just completely come apart.

 

Throwing more naturally again may be a key to maintaining or gaining back some lost velo on his FB.

[FredLynn]

That part is true. No reason Lester can't recover. That said some do, and some don't.

 

Lester has lost velocity from his four seam fastball, about 1.5mph over the last few years. When that happens its not likely to return. Unless he becomes more and more of a finesse pitcher-which is tough to do, but not impossible-he is likely to remain a #3 SP at best.

[jung]

Lester's velo issues were likely the same as his other pitching issues though....mechanical as opposed to simple age for example.

 

So I think there is reason to believe he will pick up his velo again IF he solves the mechanical issues.

 

1.5 mph is a lotta' velo though. Even if he solves the mechanical issues, picking that much up might be tough.

[jacksonianmarch]

Jackso you need to have a look at this article:

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/02/07/can-jon-lester-bounce-back-history-offers-some

 

Not a very good article, to be honest with you. It lumps in Lester with some good players and one of the greats in Palmer. They aren't equals, though. Stieb also isnt a very good comparison. There is a reason. Jon Lester is a strikeout pitcher, or he was. The two guys he is really comparing him to never were. Palmer's career K/9IP was 5.04. Stieb's was 5.21. Lester's is 8.21 and when Lester was dominant, he was between 8.55 and 9.96. Last yr, he slipped to 7.28, his lowest since his pretty solid 2008 campaign.

 

And the interesting thing about Lester's 2008 was that a lot of people, myself included, predicted that either he'd regress to the mean in terms of his FIP after 2008 or increase his K's to continue his solid ERA and production. Well, he upped the K's until last yr. The funny thing is, his xFIP was lower in 2012 than it was in his dominant 2008 campaign. Funny how that works, isnt it? His xFIP was lights out in 09 and 10, showed he was a little lucky in 11 and unlucky in 12. That being said, if Lester continues his trend of decreasing K amounts, he will increase his FIP and will likely even out above the 4.00ERA mark again. Last yr, based on his performance, his FIP was 4.11 and his xFIP was 3.82, an entire run below what his ERA was. Hence why I am predicting Lester to be right around the 4.00ERA mark, maybe a tick below. If he corrects his "mechanical" flaw (IT'S MENTAL BTW and maybe a little physical since he lost some of his velo) and starts K'ing batters at his prior rate, then he would be something more.

[mvp 78]

At the end of the day, the problem with the rotation is its lack of a #1. At best, Lester is a 2 and Buchholz will never be more than a 3 due to his durability issues. Adding a #4 in Dempster was meaningless.

 

All last year, we heard that Lester would get better because of his FIP. He was "unlucky" even though teams were teeing off on him. Well, maybe he's not much better than a 15 W 3.8 - 4.2 ERA guy. He's a fine pitcher, but not a leader and not a #1.

 

Until the Sox improve the front of their rotation, they won't be a playoff team.

[jung]

but not a leader and not a #1

 

No argument from me.

 

I really can't say that I saw a 1 out there that the Sox could have scooped up. There was not more than one guy that seemed to me to even have the potential to be a 1 that was available. Regardless, the Sox are still desperate for one.

[a700hitter]

Will any of our starters be pitching in the WBC?

[Dojji]

At the end of the day, the problem with the rotation is its lack of a #1. At best, Lester is a 2 and Buchholz will never be more than a 3 due to his durability issues. Adding a #4 in Dempster was meaningless.

 

All last year, we heard that Lester would get better because of his FIP. He was "unlucky" even though teams were teeing off on him. Well, maybe he's not much better than a 15 W 3.8 - 4.2 ERA guy. He's a fine pitcher, but not a leader and not a #1.

 

Until the Sox improve the front of their rotation, they won't be a playoff team.

 

At his best, Jon Lester is a #1, demonstrably competitive with a host of other pitchers presumed to be #1's. The only reason we don't call him a #1 is because we remember Pedro, and assume that all #1's are supposed to look like that. Not many of the best starting pitchers in the history of the game could come close to Pedro though, so it's time for people to reset their expectations of what a real #1 starter is supposed to look like.

[Station 13]

If anyone pays attention to the cost of a #1 starter in FA, Grienke, CC, Felix contract ranges $150-175M. I expect David Price to get around that. Kershaw may push $200M if he hits the market.

 

I'm not sure if I want them to throw that much at 1 player.

[Palodios]

At the end of the day, the problem with the rotation is its lack of a #1. At best, Lester is a 2 and Buchholz will never be more than a 3 due to his durability issues. Adding a #4 in Dempster was meaningless.

 

All last year, we heard that Lester would get better because of his FIP. He was "unlucky" even though teams were teeing off on him. Well, maybe he's not much better than a 15 W 3.8 - 4.2 ERA guy. He's a fine pitcher, but not a leader and not a #1.

 

Until the Sox improve the front of their rotation, they won't be a playoff team.

 

Look at the discussion in the Predictions thread. From 2008-2011, Lester pitched just as well as Verlander/ Weaver/ Greinke/ Shields/ Price. Its one thing to say Lester won't be a #1, but at best he certainly can be.

[mvp 78]

His K/9 has gone down steadily since 09. If you aren't concerned about that, I don't know what to tell you.

[mvp 78]

Shields isn't a #1. Price's first full year wasn't until 09 ( and he's outperformed Lester the past 3 years). Greinke has been wildly inconsistent.

[mvp 78]

Lester has NEVER pitched as well as Verlander has the past 2 years.

[mvp 78]

Weaver's past 3 years are better than any year Lester has had.

[Palodios]

His K/9 has gone down steadily since 09. If you aren't concerned about that, I don't know what to tell you.

 

I'm not saying that Lester will be an ace, but if you can't see that "at his best" he can be, I don't know what to tell you.

[mvp 78]

I'm not saying that Lester will be an ace, but if you can't see that "at his best" he can be, I don't know what to tell you.

 

He can't and you haven't come close to proving otherwise.

[Dojji]

Sure he has. The fact that you tried to move the goalpost like a champion doesn't mean he missed his field goal.

[mvp 78]

Sure he has. The fact that you tried to move the goalpost like a champion doesn't mean he missed his field goal.

 

By excluding 2012, Pal rigged the results by moving the goalposts in for Lester and out for the other pitchers.

 

He excluded Lester's bad year. He excluded the other guys' good years. It's a poor argument.

[jung]

Was watching the Comcast Spring Training show tonight. I guess Felix is the one guy that Merloni REALLY did not like. According to Lou, Felix has clearly gained a few pounds, was borderline not in shape and the Sox were kinda' babying him a bit at this point. worried about inducing an injury. Lou pointed out that Felix has exhibited this behavior before in his short career.

 

As recall, the last time this happened with Felix, experts were even questioning his commitment to the game. I would have thought Felix would have done almost anything to avoid this sort of perception.

 

Some have offered that the upper reaches of his potential are pretty high. I have not been as impressed nor as hopeful. However I did not expect this especially thinking Felix must know this would cause some concern. I for one am not all that thrilled about the idea of just plugging Frankie in either.

 

This ST has surely started oddly. Guys down there early...good sign. Some saying the wrong things..not so good sign. Felix is one of the guys that showed early I think....good sign. However they are I guess not allowing him to work at this point....not so good sign.

 

Lou was hinting around that maybe zebra's really don't change their stripes pointing at Felix in this case. Definitely not so good sign.

[mvp 78]

If Doubs isn't ready, Morales can have his spot.

[dupree]

If Doubs isn't ready, Morales can have his spot.

 

Yes stretch Frankie out as a starter. Which i think they were going to anyway. I havent seen anything such as videos or pictures of any of the guys at ST other than Lackey, but if Felix is that far out of shape and didnt show commitment during the offseason i hope one of the young prospects comes up and blows everyone away and takes a rotation spot.

 

Im tired of hearing that these pitching prospects needs more seasoning in the minors. Oakland brings the boys up and throws um in the water, hell its stink or swim, if this is truely a bridge year why not let them be seasoned by pitching to major league hitter not AAA or lower caliber players.

[NYlove4BoSox]

Im tired of hearing that these pitching prospects needs more seasoning in the minors. Oakland brings the boys up and throws um in the water, hell its stink or swim, if this is truely a bridge year why not let them be seasoned by pitching to major league hitter not AAA or lower caliber players.

 

I remember when Pedro was in the booth with Don and Jerry last year. He thought the biggest problem with MLB pitching was an epidemic of overuse of the cutter (not specifying Lester or Mo) because of lack of seasoning due to guys being brought up too soon.

I don't know a lot about it, but I ain't gonna disagree with Pedro. And it's something to consider now that he's officially in the ear of the Red Sox.

[dupree]

I remember when Pedro was in the booth with Don and Jerry last year. He thought the biggest problem with MLB pitching was an epidemic of overuse of the cutter (not specifying Lester or Mo) because of lack of seasoning due to guys being brought up too soon.

I don't know a lot about it, but I ain't gonna disagree with Pedro. And it's something to consider now that he's officially in the ear of the Red Sox.

 

Im gonna disagree with Pedro either, i think behind bringing John Farrell in as manager the addition of Pedro was the 2ndbest best move of this offseason.

 

I guess where its ST and all the teams are tied for 1st im just in the mindset of hoping one of the young guys shows something and that just blows everyone away and comes outta nowhere to pitch for us this year.