Rotation

[Dojji]

Sorry, not buying it. Two individual pitchers had trouble with Salty and one of them is gone which really distorts his numbers. Both of those pitchers had reported mechanical and health problems during the years they "struggled" as well.

[Bellhorn04]

Sorry, not buying it. Two individual pitchers had trouble with Salty and one of them is gone which really distorts his numbers. Both of those pitchers had reported mechanical and health problems during the years they "struggled" as well.

 

More than 2 pitchers have had trouble with Salty.

[wyo-sox]

I don't mean to beat the dead horse on this...we've been over it a few times. Yes, some pitchers have done OK with Salty. But *overall* the staff ERA was a run higher in 2011 with Salty than with Tek, and a run higher in 2012 with Salty than with Shoppach.

 

Anyway if they keep Salty for 2013 we'll have another chance, to compare his CERA with Ross's.

But would you acknowledge that who Salty caught and how often he caught is not at all comparable to Tek in 2011? Would you acknowledge that Salty caught all year in 2012 when the pitchers fell off the cliff and Shop was not even on the team then? Would you acknowledge the only pitcher that Shop and Salty caught comparable innings in 2012 was Beckett..... and he had a better era with Salty?

 

Would you acknowledge that Lester and Buchs had good era's to Salty in 2011?

 

Answer this.... do you think Teks 2011cera would have been better then Salty if he caught all of Wakes games? Or if Tek caught all of injured Lackeys games? Would you acknowledge that in 2011 Salty caught 127 innings with Lackey while Tek only caught like 30 innings of Lackey? Do you honestly draw a conclusion with cera knowing Salty had to catch all those Lackey and Wake innings while Tek about pretty much exclusively caught Beckett? How can you compare staff era when they were not catching the same staff?

[Dojji]

But would you acknowledge that who Salty caught and how often he caught is not at all comparable to Tek in 2011? Would you acknowledge that Salty caught all year in 2012 when the pitchers fell off the cliff and Shop was not even on the team then? Would you acknowledge the only pitcher that Shop and Salty caught comparable innings in 2012 was Beckett..... and he had a better era with Salty?

 

Would you acknowledge that Lester and Buchs had good era's to Salty in 2011?

 

Answer this.... do you think Teks 2011cera would have been better then Salty if he caught all of Wakes games?

 

 

I think you're trying a bridge too far, wyo-sox. There's a group think that starts pervading the culture of a fanbase after awhile, and once that group think makes up its mind, it's danged hard to unmake that decision.

 

And the Sox fan groupmind has decided That Salty Sucks. So you will hear every effort to interpret the various available facts into Salty somehow sucking, no matter how the truth has to be contorted to get there from here.

 

Think I'm nuts? I invite the members of this forum to prove me wrong. But I doubt they wind up doing it.

[Dojji]

More than 2 pitchers have had trouble with Salty.

 

Well on the basis of the excellent evidence you just provided to back up that argument, how can I fail to be convinced?

[Bellhorn04]

Well on the basis of the excellent evidence you just provided to back up that argument, how can I fail to be convinced?

 

The numbers have been produced here on several occasions and of course are easily available on Baseball-Reference. I didn't think we had to go through that exercise again.

[wyo-sox]

Thing is every time we go through this exercise I do look up numbers and nobody responds when they do not show Salty in a bad light. I just asked if you would acknowledge a series of clear facts, just a few posts ago I showed how the era's by the season have Saltys 2011 numbers the same as everyone else's catching Lester. I clearly pointed out the error of comparing staff era's when they did not catch the same staff. I was the only one that posted all the 2012 era's with both catchers and showed that as many did the same or better with Salty than with Shop. People ignore numbers I look u trying to show a more fair comparitive, last time I was accused of cherry picking numbers ..... so I guess I do not understand why the whole Salty makes everyone's era higher.....when I have showed it is not true..... keeps coming up again and again. To believe "the staff" has a higher era with Salty you have to ignore a bunch of key facts and compare Apple's to oranges.

[Bellhorn04]

OK, I'll put up the CERA numbers for Salty, Tek and Shopp for any pitchers that had say 15 innings or more with each when I get a chance.

[Dojji]

15? Seriously, that's like 3 starts or less, or less than a quarter season even for an RP. You'll include a lot of "noise" if you try to analyze like that. At least wyo-sox attempted to root out small sample sizes and call them out for what they are.

 

No matter what you compare Salty's numbers to, it's going to be based on either a different year, or a smaller sample. Because he was the starting catcher. I don't kid myself for a milisecond that anyone like Lavarnway, Shoppach or Ross would have done much better with the pitching staff we had in 2012 if they were asked to handle the majority of the load.

 

I'm not saying Salty is blameless, or perfect, or even good. I'm saying assigning the whole problem to Salty is shortsighted at best and overlooks other equally fundamental problems -- starting with our ongoing issues at shortstop.

[Palodios]

Thing is every time we go through this exercise I do look up numbers and nobody responds when they do not show Salty in a bad light. I just asked if you would acknowledge a series of clear facts, just a few posts ago I showed how the era's by the season have Saltys 2011 numbers the same as everyone else's catching Lester. I clearly pointed out the error of comparing staff era's when they did not catch the same staff. I was the only one that posted all the 2012 era's with both catchers and showed that as many did the same or better with Salty than with Shop. People ignore numbers I look u trying to show a more fair comparitive, last time I was accused of cherry picking numbers ..... so I guess I do not understand why the whole Salty makes everyone's era higher.....when I have showed it is not true..... keeps coming up again and again. To believe "the staff" has a higher era with Salty you have to ignore a bunch of key facts and compare Apple's to oranges.

 

I simply don't believe your stats are true. I don't know of a good place to get by-catcher CERA numbers, but I did some digging, and here is a crazy statistic for you:

 

Jon Lester has been bombed* twelve times from 2011-2012. Salty caught 11 of those games. The other game, Lavarnway caught, for 5 ER over 8.0 IP.

 

* bombed = 5+ ER

[wyo-sox]

I simply don't believe your stats are true. I don't know of a good place to get by-catcher CERA numbers, but I did some digging, and here is a crazy statistic for you:

 

Jon Lester has been bombed* twelve times from 2011-2012. Salty caught 11 of those games. The other game, Lavarnway caught, for 5 ER over 8.0 IP.

 

* bombed = 5+ ER

 

Baseballreference.com. go to a pitchers info,, under standard pitching select splits then chose what year you want to look at, results by catcher are towards the bottom.

 

I promise I did not make the up any numbers or lie about anything.

[wyo-sox]

OK, I'll put up the CERA numbers for Salty, Tek and Shopp for any pitchers that had say 15 innings or more with each when I get a chance.

 

 

15 innings?????? Are you serious that we could draw any conclusions from an era with a catcher with that small of a sample size? How bout just starting by answering or explaining the questions I asked you?

[Bellhorn04]

15 innings?????? Are you serious that we could draw any conclusions from an era with a catcher with that small of a sample size? How bout just starting by answering or explaining the questions I asked you?

 

Calm down, will ya? I was thinking of relief pitchers for the 15 inning minimum, 30 innings for starters. Like I said I'll put the numbers up soon and then we can discuss further.

[wyo-sox]

I simply don't believe your stats are true. I don't know of a good place to get by-catcher CERA numbers, but I did some digging, and here is a crazy statistic for you:

 

Jon Lester has been bombed* twelve times from 2011-2012. Salty caught 11 of those games. The other game, Lavarnway caught, for 5 ER over 8.0 IP.

 

* bombed = 5+ ER

 

As to the point of Lester getting bombed more with Salty, (even though I did not look it up I won't assume I cant believe your stats) I would assume that is true since Salty caught most of his innings in those two years. Salty alone in 11 12 seasons caught 252 Lester innings as compared to 145 Lester innings divided up by three other catchers. So yes, he will have more of any measurable stat to Salty, good or bad, over that time frame..... right?

[Palodios]

Baseballreference.com. go to a pitchers info,, under standard pitching select splits then chose what year you want to look at, results by catcher are towards the bottom.

 

I promise I did not make the up any numbers or lie about anything.

 

Strange. I'm getting virus warnings from baseball reference right now. Maybe someone hacked it and changed Salty's stats:lol:. Thanks for pointing that out though, very useful!

[wyo-sox]

Calm down, will ya? I was thinking of relief pitchers for the 15 inning minimum, 30 innings for starters. Like I said I'll put the numbers up soon and then we can discuss further.

 

I'm calm buddy. Trust me I know emotion can be read only these discussions... but I am enjoying this as good discussion and not trying to be a jerk and don't assume anything negative from you.

 

I do wish you would answer the questions I asked<_>

[wyo-sox]

Strange. I'm getting virus warnings from baseball reference right now. Maybe someone hacked it and changed Salty's stats:lol:. Thanks for pointing that out though, very useful!

 

Ha! I wish I was smart enough to do that, lol.

[Bellhorn04]

OK here are the CERA comparisons for 2011 and 2012 for all starters that had at least 30 innings with each catcher, and relievers that had at least 15 innings with each catcher.

 

2011

Salty Tek

Lester 145 3.77 40 2.48 1.29

Lackey 127 6.31 33 6.82 -0.51

Aceves 67 2.82 42 2.34 0.48

Bard 39 4.54 31 1.44 3.10

Papelbon 36 2.75 25 2.45 0.30

Wheeler 34 4.19 15 5.40 -1.21

Albers 27 5.53 36 4.00 1.53

 

2012

Salty Shopp

Lester 107 5.62 48 3.70 1.92

Buchholz 75 6.30 78 3.23 3.07

Beckett 58 4.47 58 5.46 -0.99

Aceves 53 4.92 15 4.11 0.81

Padilla 26 5.47 19 2.75 2.72

[Bellhorn04]

So the really huge differences are: Bard in 2011, Lester, Buchholz and Padilla in 2012.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Lavarnway will steal the job away in ST, even though ST is basically meaningless. The sox brass and I am sure John Farrell will try everything in their power to justify Salty losing his job. I know for a fact that throwing to a s***** game caller and a s***** blocker leads you to having less confidence in your catcher and worse production. Salty is a 1b playing catcher. Lavarnway was a butcher in the minors but worked hard enough to where all reports put him in the average to slightly below average category. That's much better than Salty, who is effectively wearing oven mitts behind the dish. After seeing Posada slip to absolutely abhorrent defensive levels his final few yrs in the Bronx then seeing the difference a guy like Martin made, I have confirmed my initial experiences. A great defensive catcher is worth more than a solid offensive catcher who sucks defensively, and that is taking into account no offense from the D catcher. If he can hit too, then its a bonus

[Bellhorn04]

I'm calm buddy. Trust me I know emotion can be read only these discussions... but I am enjoying this as good discussion and not trying to be a jerk and don't assume anything negative from you.

 

I do wish you would answer the questions I asked<_>

 

With regard to your questions, I will say that there's one point you're making that I agree is quite valid, which is that Tek caught Beckett almost exclusively in 2011, and Salty caught Wake almost exclusively in 2011. So yes, that has to be factored into Salty's CERA difference for 2011. There's no way of knowing how Beckett would have fared with Salty in 2011.

 

As for your other questions, maybe if you could go through these additional numbers and restate them?

[wyo-sox]

Well first thank you for taking the time to input the numbers, I appreciate that.

 

Secondly, if I take great value in CERA, I see in 2011 2/7 on the list pitched better to Salty, 2/7 were very close and 3/7 pitched considerably worse to Salty. This all seems to support what I've been saying, Salty did not hurt everyone's era.

 

The 2012 numbers still show there is no across the board trend. 1 pretty close, one does better with Salty and one three much worse with Salty.

 

A closer look at 2012 though reveals why I don't think you can trust cera, especially when it's not over an entire season. Your numbers, which I trust, say that Padillia is a 2.75 era pitcher with Shop. Can you, or anyone, in all honesty tell me if they paired up for 100 innings Padillia is a .275 pitcher? No way, which reveals that a back up catcher can easily catch 30 - 40 innings and have a much better chance of missing one his weaker performances. Consequently when a guy catches well over 100 innings the chances of catching a stinker goes way up. So while I do not put a lot of credence in CERA I have even a tougher time comparing a catcher catching 140 innings to bone catching 35 innings.

 

I just can't see how anyone could think Lesters 2012 is directly tied to Salty, and see that Lester pitched 3.77 to him the year before.... I think Lester carreer era is 3.67.

 

All that said , I appreciate you acknowledging that the 2011 numbers are not comparing the same staff's. And while I am sure we still disagree I realize we both used facts..... to formulate our opinions on how much a catcher effects the eras. I see your arguments as valid, well thought out and respect them. Thanks for the conversation .

[jung]

I know this is going to send shivers down some peoples's spines but here goes. For me the numbers are meaningless compared to what I can see with my own eyes. If I see that a catcher has horrible numbers but can't get enough time watching him to make a judgement I might say something like "so and so's numbers are horrible" as opposed to saying that "so and so is horrible". Obviously you can't see everybody play and you can't usually see enough of a particular player's play to get a large enough "with your own two eyes" sampling.

 

All by way of saying that Salty having better numbers with two guys and worse three and sort of OK with two or whatever means very little to me. The fact that his numbers are mixed is really pretty consistent with the view that you really need to see the player play to draw any conclusions that mean anything.

 

For my money this whole numbers issue has gotten entirely out of control when it comes to its practical application. They are great fun for fantasy baseball leagues but from a practical aspect should best be used by professional baseball people as pointers pointing them to people they should want to see play. I think it will be a bad day for baseball if they throw in the towel entirely and don't trust what their own eyes are telling them and instead trust only in a set of numbers without knowing how those numbers are being compiled. While I am stretching it a bit in using this to make my point, we often don't think much of a player's numbers once we find out that he has been juicing in order to achieve those numbers.

 

For me as I have oft stated here, Salty is just awful both in the way he handles his duties as a battery mate and the way he handles his defensive responsibilities as a catcher based on what I can see with my own two eyes. I don't think he can improve very much more than he has either. That said I was posting all last year that IMO he had made a marked improvement in his throwing to the point were he actually could occasionally uncork a really good throw now and again. Even there through I thought Salty went from a totally useless thrower to "I can at least manage to hold down my lunch watching him throw sometimes" status.

 

If I had to guess, maybe Tek would have some luck assisting Salty if he concentrated on the mental aspect of what a catcher should be trying to accomplish. I just don't think Salty as the physical skills to improve much of ths stuff that makes you roll your eyes when you see it. For my money what improved Salty's throwing was that he started to throw the ball with a rhythm. Throwing just seemed like one more thing that was just going to fast for Salty. He actually did occasionally exhibit signs of throwing with a rhythm and that seemed to make a huge difference. To me it indicated that he has a strong throwing arm as some of the throws he made last year were insanely good throws.....just monster throws. On balance though to me he struggles even to maintain marginal status as a thrower and virtually everyplace else he is just pitifully bad.

[a700hitter]

I know this is going to send shivers down some peoples's spines but here goes. For me the numbers are meaningless compared to what I can see with my own eyes. If I see that a catcher has horrible numbers but can't get enough time watching him to make a judgement I might say something like "so and so's numbers are horrible" as opposed to saying that "so and so is horrible". Obviously you can't see everybody play and you can't usually see enough of a particular player's play to get a large enough "with your own two eyes" sampling.

 

All by way of saying that Salty having better numbers with two guys and worse three and sort of OK with two or whatever means very little to me. The fact that his numbers are mixed is really pretty consistent with the view that you really need to see the player play to draw any conclusions that mean anything.

 

For my money this whole numbers issue has gotten entirely out of control when it comes to its practical application. They are great fun for fantasy baseball leagues but from a practical aspect should best be used by professional baseball people as pointers pointing them to people they should want to see play. I think it will be a bad day for baseball if they throw in the towel entirely and don't trust what their own eyes are telling them and instead trust only in a set of numbers without knowing how those numbers are being compiled. While I am stretching it a bit in using this to make my point, we often don't think much of a player's numbers once we find out that he has been juicing in order to achieve those numbers.

 

For me as I have oft stated here, Salty is just awful both in the way he handles his duties as a battery mate and the way he handles his defensive responsibilities as a catcher based on what I can see with my own two eyes. I don't think he can improve very much more than he has either. That said I was posting all last year that IMO he had made a marked improvement in his throwing to the point were he actually could occasionally uncork a really good throw now and again. Even there through I thought Salty went from a totally useless thrower to "I can at least manage to hold down my lunch watching him throw sometimes" status.

 

If I had to guess, maybe Tek would have some luck assisting Salty if he concentrated on the mental aspect of what a catcher should be trying to accomplish. I just don't think Salty as the physical skills to improve much of ths stuff that makes you roll your eyes when you see it. For my money what improved Salty's throwing was that he started to throw the ball with a rhythm. Throwing just seemed like one more thing that was just going to fast for Salty. He actually did occasionally exhibit signs of throwing with a rhythm and that seemed to make a huge difference. To me it indicated that he has a strong throwing arm as some of the throws he made last year were insanely good throws.....just monster throws. On balance though to me he struggles even to maintain marginal status as a thrower and virtually everyplace else he is just pitifully bad.

Some of my favorite times have been when he is spinning around like a top looking for the ball which is actually right at his feet while runners are scooting around the bases. Everyone is pointing at his feet and he looks everywhere but at his feet. The guy stinks. You just need to watch him for a couple of weeks to be able to see that.

[Lucienbel]

Some of my favorite times have been when he is spinning around like a top looking for the ball which is actually right at his feet while runners are scooting around the bases. Everyone is pointing at his feet and he looks everywhere but at his feet. The guy stinks. You just need to watch him for a couple of weeks to be able to see that.

 

These are typically times I laugh, get up, and get another beer. It's very hard to watch, yet so comedic at the same time. Must be even more fun to watch for the opposing teams fans.

 

I still think the sample size statistically we have of Salty is too small to really pass any judgements number wise, at least when it comes to his handling of pitchers.

 

None the less, anyone with two eyes can tell his defense is bad. Countless times has he not been able to find the ball as mentioned above. He's missed his fair share of easy to make plays at the plate.

 

I'm really hoping that Lavrarnway can show something in Spring Training that at least gets Farrell and the rest of the organization thinking.

 

Edit- Not really sure what the "they need" at the end there was.

[Palodios]

I'm really hoping that Lavrarnway can show something in Spring Training that at least gets Farrell and the rest of the organization thinking. They need

 

The organization must know. They had two catchers on the roster, and they went out and signed two more anyway-- what does that tell you? All the rumors say that Salty will be trade-bait mid-season.

[mvp 78]

A sample size of 2 years isn't enough for Salty? Really? Just pen him in for another 5, I guess?

[mvp 78]

After 207 games caught with the Sox, it's obvious that his defense stinks. How many more do people want to suffer through?

 

If you like his bat enough, move him to 1b.

[SoxFanForsyth]

After 207 games caught with the Sox, it's obvious that his defense stinks. How many more do people want to suffer through?

 

If you like his bat enough, move him to 1b.

 

If his bat was good enough for 1B they would have played him there over Loney after the trade. Instead they played Loney.

 

That alone should be enough to convince people that he needs to go. He's not a good catcher and he's certainly not good enough to back up 1B.

[jung]

To small a sample size.....I'm sorry but I just don't see that one. I agree with Pal. Thankfully I think the Sox have seen enough and will move Salty.