Buy or Sell

[rjortiz]

What prospects do you think the Red Sox should keep, and which ones should the Red Sox move?

 

Boegarts - Keep

Bradley - Sell (Keep Ellsbury)

Barnes - Sell (I don't think he's the bonafide ace everyone makes him out to be. We could get a monster starting pitcher with Bradley and Barnes as bait. I don't think either of them are future stars)

Webster - Keep (I like him more than Barnes. Better stuff, more advanced given ages)

Brentz - Sell (4th OF type, who can't play CF)

Cecchini - Sell (He's blocked, but a five tool player. If he hits for a little more power, he could be a huge trade chip)

Owens - Sell (Fastball is just OK. I wonder if those K's are due to deception)

Swihart - Keep

 

The rest of our system isn't that great. Marrero has potential, but not enough info on him. I'm not too jazzed about the others.

[Dojji]

Keep them all. These things have a way of working themselves out, and being arrogant enough to think you can outguess random chance is how we wound up where we are right now not just with real holes on the team, but also with a lot of mediocre patch players like Aviles and Salty playing as well.

 

To call a position secure for the future, you need three prospects potentially ready to play it in the next 36 months or less. Any time you move prospects to "clear the way" because one particular player is "your guy," especially before "your guy" has demonstrated over a full 162, you're inviting catastrophe. That "clear way" becomes a hole in a real hurry at that point.

 

In other words, trying to chose, say, Ellsbury over Bradley, reveals your blindness to the fact that in the uncertainty-filled world of prospects and young ballplayers, we are very very likely to find a place for both over the course of 162+. Exactly the same way we could really have used Reddick this year, and DID make good use of him last year, despite him not being in the plans at the outset.

[rjortiz]

Keep them all. These things have a way of working themselves out, and being arrogant enough to think you can outguess random chance is how we wound up where we are right now not just with real holes on the team, but also with a lot of mediocre patch players like Aviles and Salty playing as well.

 

To call a position secure for the future, you need three prospects potentially ready to play it in the next 36 months or less. Any time you move prospects to "clear the way" because one particular player is "your guy," especially before "your guy" has demonstrated over a full 162, you're inviting catastrophe. That "clear way" becomes a hole in a real hurry at that point.

 

In other words, trying to chose, say, Ellsbury over Bradley, reveals your blindness to the fact that in the uncertainty-filled world of prospects and young ballplayers, we are very very likely to find a place for both over the course of 162+. Exactly the same way we could really have used Reddick this year, and DID make good use of him last year, despite him not being in the plans at the outset.

 

I was just putting out my thoughts on what prospects I liked and didn't, and which ones are better used as trade chips. I didn't know that made me arrogant and blind.

[Dojji]

It demonstrates arrogance and blindness. If you want to own those attributes, that's your call, but I was kind of hoping you'd decide you didn't want to and would rather demonstrate wisdom and patience.

[rjortiz]

It demonstrates arrogance and blindness. If you want to own those attributes, that's your call, but I was kind of hoping you'd decide you didn't want to and would rather demonstrate wisdom and patience.

 

 

I'm just saying that having Ellsbury in CF maximizes his value, because he is an excellent defensive CF. We could move him to a corner, and play Bradley in CF. That's a possibility, and I'm not against it. Didn't mean to sound arrogant. I just think we have a lot of holes in our major league roster, and we can use our financial advantage to move some of our lesser prospects to upgrade the roster. I'm not saying we should trade them for a rental, but maybe we could move a few of them for another cost controlled player.

[Behindenemylines]

There is no guarentee that the Sox will be able to keep Ellsbury. If he ask for more then the Sox think he is worth then Bradley becomes an option in CF. Unless a King Felix or another top of the line pitcher is the target I believe the youth has to stay here. How many times have we traded away youth for the quick fix and have been disappointed.

[a700hitter]

There is no guarentee that the Sox will be able to keep Ellsbury. If he ask for more then the Sox think he is worth then Bradley becomes an option in CF. Unless a King Felix or another top of the line pitcher is the target I believe the youth has to stay here. How many times have we traded away youth for the quick fix and have been disappointed.

Not that often. Our big mistakes have for the most part been via free agency. We haven't had a lot of our prospects go elsewhere and tear up things.

[jacksonianmarch]

You have to see where Ellsbury is, and with his agent, he wont allow the kid to sign prior to FA anyway. It benefits both parties. Ellsbury has shown an alarming loss of power. Couple that with a shoulder injury that was rehabbed and you have to think that there is something structurally wrong in the shoulder. I wonder if the sox are going to see something on his post-season MRI/physical. But, if the physical goes well, the kid strengthens the shoulder in the offseason and comes back hitting 20+ bombs and running around the bases like a madman again, then you gotta try to keep him.

 

Also, a huge problem the sox seem to have is letting their guys go and overvaluing their prospects/undervaluing the wrong prospects. With the sox sunk in almost all areas of the team, they might be better served to see what they have next yr, and build for another run. They won in 2004 with veterans, but their 2007 team was grown either via trade of prospects or the ascension of prospects. Right now, their best prospects are in AA and will likely require another half season to be ready. The sox should, IMO, not do anything drastic (ie long term contracts) this offseason (maybe re-sign Ross and coax Papi into a 1 yr deal). They can try to find scrap heap signings for the rotation and hold spots for guys like Barnes, Webster and De la Rosa. Once those kids show they have mastery over AAA, they ascend, take the spots and show if they can handle it. If they show what Doubront has shown (great stuff, inconsistent command, big time promise) then you gotta ride with them. If they come up and look like Craig Hansen, you demote them and deal them before their stock is ruined.

[Behindenemylines]

I think many wouldn't mind having Kelly, Rizzo and Reddick back in the mix of youth for 2013. That is three just from last year, and I know it was along time ago (1990) but Jeff Bagwell is probably the prospect dealt that had the greatest career.

[a700hitter]

I think many wouldn't mind having Kelly, Rizzo and Reddick back in the mix of youth for 2013. That is three just from last year, and I know it was along time ago (1990) but Jeff Bagwell is probably the prospect dealt that had the greatest career.

Reddick had a nice year and Rizzo seems to have good potential, but neither are in Bagwell's category, and going back to 1990 is long way to go to find a prospect that burned us big time.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Dojji, I honestly think you'd be a perfect fit for the Rays.

 

Point being, I think Dojji and RJ represent both sides of the extremes. If you have a chance to go out and get a proven starter who you think can perform at a high level in the AL East, you make the trade. You don't empty the farm, but you make some player expendable.

 

You also have to look at it from a perspective of which positions you can sign solid, cheap talent (i.e. Cody Ross), and which positions are extremely expensive (i.e. SP), and assess trades based on your depth at these positions.

 

So, there are no true "untouchables" for me, but the closest are Bradley, De La Rosa, Bogaerts, Owens, and Barnes. Everyone else basically is fair game for the right deal.

[PagingDougGriffin]

It is a bit frustrating that our farm system just doeesn't push guys....Something like what Detroit does...They find out right quick if a pitcher or player is just going to be a "would da could da just wait" kind of guy or not....It would be nice to have more developed trade pieces ya know.....As for Ellsbury, it does kind of work with the Mariners in all....Maybe Brandon Maurer & Anthony Fernandez can come back this way...A Winter trade makes sense though....

[jacksonianmarch]

Pushing guys allows you to see the really good ones sooner, but the guys who will fill out your lineup, you bullpen and your pen dont have to be really good players. And pushing some guys too fast will ruin them. I wouldnt look at Detroit as a bastion of minor league success. Verlander turned out great, but they ruined Porcello's development and saw two humongous talents turn into s*** in their hands (Miller and Oliver). They are the definition of a system that is a buzzsaw.

[Dojji]

Not that often.

 

By "not that often" he means 5 times in the last 10 years.

 

Crisp trade (Shoppach)

Gagne trade (Murphy)

VMart trade (Masterson)

Melancon trade (Lowrie)

Bailey trade. (Reddick)

 

If we hadn't made those 5 trades, we'd have additional options at catcher, corner OF, shortstop and starting pitcher. Sounds like a laundry list of our biggest issues right now.

 

(I could see an argument for not counting the crisp trade, since CoCo played a role in winning us a World Series, even if it wasn't the role we were hoping he'd play, but Shoppach still looms large on the list of the "players we maybe should have kept in the first place.")

[a700hitter]

By "not that often" he means 5 times in the last 10 years.

 

Crisp trade (Shoppach)

Gagne trade (Murphy)

VMart trade (Masterson)

Melancon trade (Lowrie)

Bailey trade. (Reddick)

 

If we hadn't made those 5 trades, we'd have additional options at catcher, corner OF, shortstop and starting pitcher. Sounds like a laundry list of our biggest issues right now.

 

(I could see an argument for not counting the crisp trade, since CoCo played a role in winning us a World Series, even if it wasn't the role we were hoping he'd play, but Shoppach still looms large on the list of the "players we maybe should have kept in the first place.")

Shoppach sucks. Murphy has made a nice career for himself in Texas. The Gagne trade is a universally acknowleged bust. VMart did a really nice job for the Sox while he was here. Masterson is still looking to find himself. Melancon blows chunks, but Lowrie was never going to be more than a good utility guy because he can't stay on the field. The Bailey trade is looking like it could be just as bad as the Gagne trade. Two trades were really bad. If we reversed all 5, we'd still stink, plus we would have stunk in 2008 and 2009 without VMart. We'd have had 5 lousy years instead of 3.

[Behindenemylines]

I think keeping youth allows teams to have long term success. I know they said you can't rebuild in Boston because the fans want to win ever year. If the FO said that was their plan I think many in the Nation would be on board with that. Have a plan and stick to it then I could live with another season or two that we struggle. Don't put scotch tape on this thing for 2013 and say we are going to contend. Most of our minor league talent that has promise is at AA or high A. That means a year or two away from helping the team.

[Plumpamania]

Xander Bogaerts looks like the real deal. We need to give playing time to Ryan Lavarnway, and keep Ellsbury (Boras client, ugh), Kalish, Pedroia, Middlebrooks and Saltalamacchia tied up. All still young. And all but Lavarnway and Kalish proven.

[a700hitter]

Xander Bogaerts looks like the real deal. We need to give playing time to Ryan Lavarnway, and keep Ellsbury (Boras client, ugh), Kalish, Pedroia, Middlebrooks and Saltalamacchia tied up. All still young. And all but Lavarnway and Kalish proven.

Salty is proven to suck.

[mvp 78]

Salty is proven to be tall.

[SCM33]

Salty is proven to suck.

 

 

This year was almost identical as last as well. Not good enough to start in Boston, not good enough defensively to carry as a backup.

 

Release him.......I guarantee he ends up in AAA next year if Boston gets rid of him.

[Bellhorn04]

This year was almost identical as last as well. Not good enough to start in Boston, not good enough defensively to carry as a backup.

 

Release him.......I guarantee he ends up in AAA next year if Boston gets rid of him.

 

Lavarnway didn't exactly get off to a roaring start on offence or defence either. Yikes.

[SeanJohn93]

Hanley Ramirez looked like a stud in Miami for a few years but has since tailed off plus we won a world series with the beckett and lowell trade

[Palodios]

Salty is proven to suck.

 

I agree with this statement vehemently. The team's pitching has been absolutely terrible the last year, and they went ahead and fired all the coaches, fired the medical staff, put as many scapegoats out there as possible... but haven't touched the guy who has a full point higher CERA than Shoppach/Varitek/Lavarnway in his time in Boston.

[a700hitter]

I agree with this statement vehemently. The team's pitching has been absolutely terrible the last year, and they went ahead and fired all the coaches, fired the medical staff, put as many scapegoats out there as possible... but haven't touched the guy who has a full point higher CERA than Shoppach/Varitek/Lavarnway in his time in Boston.

There is sufficient data to discount the notion that the poor pitching performance while he is catching is merely a coincidence.

[SeanJohn93]

guys dont worry the pitching staff will be fine because John Lackey is coming back. Lol.

[Brennan]

guys dont worry the pitching staff will be fine because John Lackey is coming back. Lol.

 

Baseball is still being played (albeit by better teams than the steaming pile of s*** we fielded this season) and you're gonna go ahead and kick us in the nuts like that?

 

 

Ouch.