6/27 Looking for a win against the Jays on my Anniversary

[BornToRun]

First off, go look up BABIP.

 

Second off, Lester hasn't been giving up consistent hard contact to support what you're saying. There have been heaps and heaps of broken bat hits as well as bleeders, flares, etc that have landed.

 

A normal BABIP is anywhere from .290-.310. A low BABIP is .280, a high BABIP is .320.

 

Coming into this game, Lester's was at .392 over his past 5 starts, but he was somehow giving up 3-4 runs per start.

 

He's been extremely unlucky.

 

And like I was saying alll along. In order to score runs when a pitcher isn't walking guys, you have to STRING HITS TOGETHER. Without giving up free passes, and when you are striking out around 1 hitter per inning, teams have a very low liklihood of scoring runs. The fact that Lester is allowing as many runs as he is is purely a result of s*** luck.

 

Ex-f***ing-actly. Looking at fangraphs. The only number that speaks to supporting a high era is the line drive %. But everything else is right around normal or even better. I'd say, looking at the peripherals, Lester should be having one of the best years of his career but he hasn't because of as you so aptly put it "s*** luck"

[Elktonnick]

Ex-f***ing-actly. Looking at fangraphs. The only number that speaks to supporting a high era is the line drive %. But everything else is right around normal or even better. I'd say' date=' looking at the peripherals, Lester should be having one of the best years of his career but he hasn't because of as you so aptly put it "s*** luck"[/quote']

 

No it is because his velocity is down and he does not have an out pitch. He over throws the cutter and this has caused the decline in velocity of his fastball. The Red Sox need to s*** can McClure and get a real pitching coach

[BornToRun]

No it is because his velocity is down and he does not have an out pitch. He over throws the cutter and this has caused the decline in velocity of his fastball. The Red Sox need to s*** can McClure and get a real pitching coach

 

Lester has thrown the cutter on 15% of his pitches this year. The lowest total of his career by far.

[a700hitter]

Ex-f***ing-actly. Looking at fangraphs. The only number that speaks to supporting a high era is the line drive %. But everything else is right around normal or even better. I'd say' date=' looking at the peripherals, Lester should be having one of the best years of his career but he hasn't because of as you so aptly put it "s*** luck"[/quote']Well luck almost always evens out over the long haul of a season. His other numbers should start coming around resulting in some wins and some ace-worthy outings. If not, I guess he'll be the Roseanne Roseannadanna of pitchers whining: "It's always something--if it ain't one thing, it's another."

[Emmz]

ERA is a perfectly useful statistic. Unfortunately, BABIP doesn't account for anything, if he's still giving up runs, he's still accountable. If you could quantify for me that BABIP and FIP are the only stats you need to be successful, I'll agree with you. Sabermetrics, as much as I love them, are not the be-all-end-all.

 

With that said, going strictly on ERA is completely ridiculous, and Lester has been a lot better than his ERA, and it has to have been very frustrating to pitch well and still end up giving up weak ass hits, etc. and end up giving up 4-5 runs when it should have been 2.

[BornToRun]

ERA is a perfectly useful statistic. Unfortunately, BABIP doesn't account for anything, if he's still giving up runs, he's still accountable. If you could quantify for me that BABIP and FIP are the only stats you need to be successful, I'll agree with you. Sabermetrics, as much as I love them, are not the be-all-end-all.

 

With that said, going strictly on ERA is completely ridiculous, and Lester has been a lot better than his ERA, and it has to have been very frustrating to pitch well and still end up giving up weak ass hits, etc. and end up giving up 4-5 runs when it should have been 2.

 

ERA is useful, it's just not anywhere near as good as what else is available.

 

Judging someone based on their ERA is no different than Judging a player on RBI or runs scored. You're reading the book by its cover so to speak. It tells part of the story but not enough to tell you everything you need to know.

[seabeachfred]

No it is because his velocity is down and he does not have an out pitch. He over throws the cutter and this has caused the decline in velocity of his fastball. The Red Sox need to s*** can McClure and get a real pitching coach

 

With all the criticism about the cutter screwing up our pitchers' velocity and effectiveness, what was the first efen thing that imbecile McClure suggested to Aaron Cook when he got back in action? That's right, learn to throw the cutter. What's with the guy anyway? You're right---he needs to be canned as soon as possible. BTW, as he returned to the Red Sox yet Elk? I'm hopoing he finds it in his own interest to get as far away from Boston as possible.

[jung]

I can't say that I have been impressed with McClure.

[Bellhorn04]

Ex-f***ing-actly. Looking at fangraphs. The only number that speaks to supporting a high era is the line drive %. But everything else is right around normal or even better. I'd say' date=' looking at the peripherals, Lester should be having one of the best years of his career but he hasn't because of as you so aptly put it "s*** luck"[/quote']

 

Good luck arguing with Pumpsie about ERA. I've been down that road too many times.

 

I think we need an Emoticon that stands for a sentiment like this:

 

'OK, that's it, I give up-end of discussion-let's call it a draw-let's agree to disagree-you miserable stubborn f***.'

[SoxFanForsyth]

Orioles down 9-1 to the Angels with Weaver on the mound.

 

If the score holds, the Sox will be 1.5 back from the O's, who are both in 2nd in the East and 2nd in the WC.

[jung]

I don't think ERA is the end of the world for discussions about pitchers either. However none of the various stats can be taken individually and to be honest some of the recent stat creations are just plain useless cause they are based on a false premise to begin with. Many of these things just become another means to make an excuse for not getting the job done. Others of the new generation of stats are great but I don't think a one of them is worth a damn on its own.

 

If a pitcher can't make enough good pitches he will end up with a poor performance. No matter how you cut it leaving pitches out over the plate will get you hurt....giving up walks will get you hurt. Pitching right into a particular hitters strengths will get you hurt.

 

If I cannot watch a pitcher pitch then I will often try to look at a number of stats to try to get a feel for what he is doing. However if I can see what a pitcher is actually doing, I won't depend on stats that much. I will look at the stats almost as a point of interest and to compare them to pitchers that I cannot see pitch.

 

As I posted recently that is what I don't like about complaints about flairs and the so called bitch hit. If a pitcher makes a poor pitch to a crummy hitter, the so called bitch hit or flair is a very likely result. Good hitters take mistake pitches and deposit them over the wall, poor hitters end up with flairs or the so called bitch hit off the same mistake pitch...does not chance the quality of the pitch...a s***** pitch is a s***** pitch. For the most part the genesis of hits, bitch hits, flairs, HR's, doubles whatever is a s***** pitch to begin with. Sometimes you can count on one finger or less the number of times hitters take a quality pitch and do something with it particularly during the course of a regular season game. All hitters are mistake pitch hitters which is why pitching is the single most important element of the game.

[FredLynn]

First off, go look up BABIP.

 

Second off, Lester hasn't been giving up consistent hard contact to support what you're saying. There have been heaps and heaps of broken bat hits as well as bleeders, flares, etc that have landed.

 

A normal BABIP is anywhere from .290-.310. A low BABIP is .280, a high BABIP is .320.

 

Coming into this game, Lester's was at .392 over his past 5 starts, but he was somehow giving up 3-4 runs per start.

 

He's been extremely unlucky.

 

And like I was saying alll along. In order to score runs when a pitcher isn't walking guys, you have to STRING HITS TOGETHER. Without giving up free passes, and when you are striking out around 1 hitter per inning, teams have a very low liklihood of scoring runs. The fact that Lester is allowing as many runs as he is is purely a result of s*** luck.

 

Lester's BABIP tells me that a lot of the balls that opposing players are hitting off him are being hit hard, though not for HR. I know exactly what Babip means. For BTR, who is becoming very narrow minded and arrogant about this, here is the link for proof that I am not talking about something about which I know nothing:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batting_average_on_balls_in_play

 

I do not think that this is a particularly useful statistic. Its pretty far down the list for me. But hey look-keep using it and keep quoting it if you feel that its valuable. Since there is no one right answer (did you know that while the Red Sox use sabermetrics many teams in MLB do not put nearly the emphasis on it that we do?) I will keep on quoting the statistics that I believe are useful (#1=ERA, then WHIP, K/BB, ERA+ etc) and you can quote your stuff. As I said, I DO know what this stuff is; I just haven't been convinced that it beats ERA as a prime indicator of a pitcher's effectiveness. As I said, baseball is a simple game.

[Elktonnick]

Lester has thrown the cutter on 15% of his pitches this year. The lowest total of his career by far.

 

That's 15% too many

[Elktonnick]

With all the criticism about the cutter screwing up our pitchers' velocity and effectiveness' date=' what was the first efen thing that imbecile McClure suggested to Aaron Cook when he got back in action? That's right, learn to throw the cutter. What's with the guy anyway? You're right---he needs to be canned as soon as possible. BTW, as he returned to the Red Sox yet Elk? I'm hopoing he finds it in his own interest to get as far away from Boston as possible.[/quote']

 

I saw him on the bench today.

[FredLynn]

ERA is a perfectly useful statistic. Unfortunately, BABIP doesn't account for anything, if he's still giving up runs, he's still accountable. If you could quantify for me that BABIP and FIP are the only stats you need to be successful, I'll agree with you. Sabermetrics, as much as I love them, are not the be-all-end-all.

 

With that said, going strictly on ERA is completely ridiculous, and Lester has been a lot better than his ERA, and it has to have been very frustrating to pitch well and still end up giving up weak ass hits, etc. and end up giving up 4-5 runs when it should have been 2.

 

I never said the ERA is the ONLY useful statistic, just the most important single stat for a pitcher. Even babip has some usefulness, I suppose. The reason I quote ERA alone so often is in the interest of brevity when I post, both for me looking that stuff up and for people reading it. There are certainly other important indicators that need to be looked at if you want a clear picture of performance.

I do not buy the BS that Lester has just been unlucky all year. One game or two games-maybe even three games, sure. But by now it should have evened out. He has simply sucked this year. It is US who are unlucky having to watch him.

[FredLynn]

Good luck arguing with Pumpsie about ERA. I've been down that road too many times.

 

I think we need an Emoticon that stands for a sentiment like this:

 

'OK, that's it, I give up-end of discussion-let's call it a draw-let's agree to disagree-you miserable stubborn f***.'

 

If I believe that something is right, until I am persuaded otherwise, I stick to my guns. On the other hand, if I am handed evidence that I am clearly wrong (happened here the other day when SCM told me that Aviles had screwed up an IF play, not Pedroia) I will gladly admit that I am wrong. That has not happened here. I still think that I am correct, for me at least.

You can call it whatever you like. It IS a draw.

[Elktonnick]

Lester and Mc Clure should read this.

 

 

 

B]Hughes improves by cutting out the cutter[/b]

By Eric Schultz On May 8, 2012 · 4 Comments · In PitchFX, Player Analysis

....

 

 

Phil Hughes has been a mystifying and at times infuriating pitcher to watch throughout his Yankee career. As a prospect, he was viewed as very unlikely to bust because he had good command to go along with a fastball that could touch the mid-90′s and a legitimate plus curveball. In the majors, Phil’s raw stuff, command, and approach have been consistently inconsistent, leading to periods where he flashes dominance, and other times where he is hittable and inefficient.

 

Unfortunately, the latter scenario has been the case for much of 2012, despite improved fastball velocity compared to 2011. So far this season, Hughes is 2-4 with an ugly 6.67 ERA and a 5.67 FIP, and a ridiculous 2.54 home runs per 9 innings. Phil has made it to 5 innings in just 3 of hits 6 starts, with only one quality start (his most recent outing, where he last 6 2/3 innings and gave up 3 runs). Needless to say, this is not exactly what Yankee fans were hoping to see from Hughes this year, which was supposed to be decisive in determining his future in pinstripes.

 

While the overall numbers don’t look very favorable for Hughes, there are some signs that things could be getting better. Despite the large number of hits and home runs, Hughes has been effective at striking batters out and limiting the walks allowed, two statistics that bode well for his future performance. Overall, Phil is averaging 9.53 strikeouts per 9 innings, and just 2.54 walks per 9, nearly a 4:1 ratio.

 

Phil’s last two starts have been more effective, particularly his most recent outing, where he gave up 3 runs on 6 hits and a walk in 6 2/3 innings, with 7 strikeouts. Hughes’ fastball velocity seemed noticeably higher while I was watching the game, reaching as high as 95 in the later stages of the start, which may have contributed to his effectiveness. To confirm my suspicions, I took a look at pitch f/x data from Brooks Baseball to see if there was a noticeable difference in Hughes’ fastball (and other offerings) in his most recent start.

 

On the season, Hughes has average 92.75 mph on his fastball, but the numbers have varied somewhat start to start. As you can see from the graph below, however, the velocity seems to be trending upward. In his April 8 outing against Tampa, Hughes averaged just 91.68 mph. In his April 25 outing against Texas, Hughes averaged 92.31 mph. In his most recent (and most effective) outing, Hughes bumped his average velocity up to 93.34 mph, and maxing out at 95.6. This upward trend in fastball velocity could be a potential reason for Phil’s improvement in his most recent start.

 

 

 

In addition to velocity, Phil’s fastball may also be gaining some movement. In his strong May 6 outing, Hughes’ fastball had its highest horizontal break of the season, -6.46, compared to his season average of -4.37. The extra 2 inches of horizontal break may be another contributor to the fastball’s success in that outing. Even if it didn’t greatly increase the whiff rate of the pitch, the extra horizontal movement could prevent hitters from squaring up the ball as well.

 

Also potentially relevant to Phil’s improvement could be the change in his pitch mix. Most notably, he has reduced his cutter usage substantially (as you can see in the graph below). In the earlier outings, Hughes used the cutter over 10 percent of the time, but he has used the pitch just twice in the past two outings combined. Considering that the cutter has not looked to be a very effective pitch from what I have seen (essentially a slow, hittable fastball with minimal bite), using fewer cutters may be contributing to Phil’s improvement.

 

 

 

While there is not necessarily a causal link, the increase in fastball velocity (of nearly 2 mph over the season) seems to track very well with the decreased cutter usage in the small 6-start sample. One possibility is that Phil’s increased fastball velocity (and better movement) has obviated the need to use the cutter, and consequently he is throwing more 4-seamers instead. Another possibility is that throwing fewer cutters somehow contributes to Phil’s increased velocity, perhaps through mechanical or physical change related to decreasing cutter usage. Of course, the warmer weather over the course of the season could be a factor as well.

 

It will take a lot more than 1 good start for me to declare that Phil Hughes will be an effective pitcher this season, but there were obvious encouraging signs from his most recent outing. To maintain his success, he will need to build on what he was able to do well and continue to fix the problem areas. Scrapping the cutter is a good first step that will hopefully allow Phil to maximize the effectiveness of his 4-seamer and secondary offerings.

 

While the fastball was improved in his most recent outing, Hughes still gave up a home run (as he has done in every start this year). Pitching up in the zone and playing half of games in Yankee Stadium are likely culprits here, but Phil will continue to be victimized by the longball at an above-average rate (even if his current sky-high rate is unsustainable) unless he makes some change in approach. However, as he demonstrated in his most recent start, he can still be fairly effective with his current approach as long as his velocity and command are working.

 

Hughes is far from over the hump, and still has a lot to prove in order to demonstrate that he is worthy of sticking in the Yankee rotation over the long haul. His most recent outing was a good start, and he will need to continue to demonstrate progress for his manager (and Yankee fans) to trust him. We have been tantalized and teased by Phil’s progress countless times, but hopefully the improvements can continue to come. I will be interested to see if these improvements can be sustained over the next few starts, and hopefully the season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If I believe that something is right, until I am persuaded otherwise, I stick to my guns. On the other hand, if I am handed evidence that I am clearly wrong (happened here the other day when SCM told me that Aviles had screwed up an IF play, not Pedroia) I will gladly admit that I am wrong. That has not happened here. I still think that I am correct, for me at least.

You can call it whatever you like. It IS a draw.

 

What it boils down to is that pitchers need to be looked at using a comprehensive, and not individualistic approach to stats.

 

Yes ERA is very valuable. But it does not discount K's, BB's, HR's, FIP, BABIP, etc.

 

What I'm saying is that Lester has actually thrown the ball much better than his ERA shows, and I base that on his K/9, his BB/9, etc.

 

It's kind of like DiceK in 2008. He went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA.

 

He also had a 5.0 BB/9 and a 8.3 K/9. He was not that good that year. He was really, really lucky that he didn't get blasted.

 

Would you argue that DiceK, in 2008, was a better pitcher than, say Grienke last year, who had a 3.83 ERA but also had a 10.54 K/9 and a 2.39 BB/9?

[Emmz]

ERA is useful, it's just not anywhere near as good as what else is available.

 

Judging someone based on their ERA is no different than Judging a player on RBI or runs scored. You're reading the book by its cover so to speak. It tells part of the story but not enough to tell you everything you need to know.

 

No, you're judging a book by it's content, but you're missing the point with ERA. You still gave up those runs, you're not an effective pitcher when you're giving up 4 runs all the time, regardless of how weak the hits you give up are. RBI isn't anything like using ERA, because you just need to be the 3/4 hitter in a good lineup and you'll clean up, especially if you're a power hitter.

 

I personally think sabermetrics are the best thing out there, but think about it. Does your FIP or BABIP matter if you finish the season with a 4.5 ERA? Is that what you're going to use at the end of the year if he's struggled all year?

 

I think those are better used as an indicator that he's going to turn it around, rather than he's pitched well this year. In the end, scorecards don't go.by sabermetrics, and they shouldn't.

[Youk Of The Nation]

We should replace all of the umpires, players, managers, coaches, and announcers with computers and then every baseball season would be a statistical masterpiece. An entire season of pure mathematical theory.

[FredLynn]

What it boils down to is that pitchers need to be looked at using a comprehensive, and not individualistic approach to stats.

 

Yes ERA is very valuable. But it does not discount K's, BB's, HR's, FIP, BABIP, etc.

 

What I'm saying is that Lester has actually thrown the ball much better than his ERA shows, and I base that on his K/9, his BB/9, etc.

 

It's kind of like DiceK in 2008. He went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA.

 

He also had a 5.0 BB/9 and a 8.3 K/9. He was not that good that year. He was really, really lucky that he didn't get blasted.

 

Would you argue that DiceK, in 2008, was a better pitcher than, say Grienke last year, who had a 3.83 ERA but also had a 10.54 K/9 and a 2.39 BB/9?

 

I do not think that Lester is much better than his ERA shows he is after a review of his peripherals. I am only going to do this once, so here goes. I compared Lester's ERA to the pitcher with the median ERA for pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings this year with a similar pitcher in terms of ERA, in this case Phil Hughes to see if Lester's peripherals were out of line. I also compared this year with Lester's career numbers. I did not use Babip as I do not think this is a particularly useful stat.

The stats, in order, are ERA, WHIP, K/BB, ERA+, HR/9, and WAR.

 

Lester this year: 4.53/1.367/2.78/93/0.8/-.1

Lester (career): 3.62/1.297/2.49/124/.8/3.27

Hughes this year: 4.48/1.297/3.86/93/2.0/.8

 

Hughes' numbers are not out of line with Lester's. He has allowed more HR/9, but his K/BB and WAR is better. His WHIP and ERA+ is identical. I conclude that based on these stats, Lester is NOT better than his ERA indicates, though more players could be analyzed this way to better substantiate that opinion.

[FredLynn]

We should replace all of the umpires' date=' players, managers, coaches, and announcers with computers and then every baseball season would be a statistical masterpiece. An entire season of pure mathematical theory.[/quote']

 

I agree with you except the part about the announcers. We would still need Remy and Orsillo to spout out the statistics as the computer calculates them. This would make for some very interesting commentary.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Don: "And Player/Position 6 now has a 34% chance of singling to right field, approximately forty feet beyond the first base bag at a roughly 70 degree angle."

 

Remy: "Uh, Don, the Master Computer calculates only an 11% chance"

 

Don: "Well, Computer Player/Position 6 has beaten the odds before, I think given it's performance over the last several-"

 

Loud, Mechanical Voice: "ANNOUNCER ERROR. MATHEMATICAL IMPROBABILITY"

 

(Heavy Robotic Footsteps, sound of laser fire)

[Emmz]

OH WHAT A CALCULATION BY C839X!!

[Emmz]

Well he has the advantage of running on the Windows OS as opposed to the iOS.

[Bellhorn04]

At the end of the day the only stat that counts is the team's W-L record. That much is for sure.

[Youk Of The Nation]

"And after that walk-off 2.78 run homer, 5x90 is sure to get a shaving cream pi!"

[BornToRun]

No, you're judging a book by it's content, but you're missing the point with ERA. You still gave up those runs, you're not an effective pitcher when you're giving up 4 runs all the time, regardless of how weak the hits you give up are. RBI isn't anything like using ERA, because you just need to be the 3/4 hitter in a good lineup and you'll clean up, especially if you're a power hitter.

 

I personally think sabermetrics are the best thing out there, but think about it. Does your FIP or BABIP matter if you finish the season with a 4.5 ERA? Is that what you're going to use at the end of the year if he's struggled all year?

 

I think those are better used as an indicator that he's going to turn it around, rather than he's pitched well this year. In the end, scorecards don't go.by sabermetrics, and they shouldn't.

 

In some cases yes, there are guys who have gotten incredibly lucky/unlucky over the course of a whole season. If I'm pitching in the 6th and there's a guy on third with two outs, how the hell is it my fault when I get the hitter out in front of a change but my shortstop is a rangeless wonder and lets it roll into the outfield and 6 innings 2 ER turns into 6 innings 3 ER? I did my job, didn't I?

 

If Jon were a guy who's had a history of putting up numbers out of line with what his peripherals suggest, I'd be more inclined to agree with you but I look at what he's done and the only thing I've gained from the numbers is that he's had some s*** luck and has pitched much better than he's being given credit for. A conclusion you can't come to just by looking at ERA.

 

That's how I see it.

[Jerry_Remy]

In some cases yes, there are guys who have gotten incredibly lucky/unlucky over the course of a whole season. If im pitching I'm pitching in the 6th and there's a guy on third with two outs, how the hell is it my fault when I get the hitter out in front of a change but my shortstop is a rangeless wonder and lets it roll into the outfield and 6 innings 2 ER turns into 6 innings 3 ER? I did my job, didn't I?

 

If Jon were a guy who's had a history of putting up numbers out of line with what his peripherals suggest, I'd be more inclined to agree with you but I look at what he's done and the only thing I've gained from the numbers is that he's had some s*** luck and has pitched much better than he's being given credit for. A conclusion you can't come to just by looking at ERA.

 

That's how I see it.

 

Precisely, couldn't agree more. I think FIP and xFIP are extremely valuable when it comes to evaluating pitchers. A pitcher can only do so much once the ball is put in play. ERA is more or less a team-dependant stat. It is generally pretty indicative, but in some cases (such as Lester's), there is a large discrepancy, and it just proves he is the victim of bad luck this year. He's too good not to return to his norm.

[BornToRun]

Precisely' date=' couldn't agree more. I think FIP and xFIP are extremely valuable when it comes to evaluating pitchers. A pitcher can only do so much once the ball is put in play. ERA is more or less a team-dependant stat. It is generally pretty indicative, but in some cases (such as Lester's), there is a large discrepancy, and it just proves he is the victim of bad luck this year. He's too good not to return to his norm.[/quote']

 

And when he does, as you, sff, and myself are predicting this team will be much better off.