6/11 Sox go fishing (vs Marlins)

[evilhand]

Josh Beckett vs Josh Johnson. Old Marlins Ace vs New Marlins Ace.

 

http://theghostofmoonlightgraham.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/josh-johnson.jpg vs http://toosoxy.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/beck.jpg

 

Kick some arse tonight.

[FredLynn]

Not quite sure where to post this. Mazzarotti has expressed my viewpoint much more eloquently than I can do it myself. Its all about the pitching, and while ours has improved, its still behind most good teams.

 

By Tony Massarotti, Boston.com Columnist

 

From Roger Clemens to Pedro Martinez to Curt Schilling and beyond, the Red Sox always had an answer. But when it comes time to match up now, with the entire major leagues undergoing an ongoing detoxification, the truth is that the Red Sox simply do not match up anymore.

 

So while the Red Sox continue to blame the umpires and most anyone else (but themselves) in the wake of a weekend sweep at the hands of the pitching-rich Washington Nationals, the evidence suggests a far more worrisome problem. When it comes to premier pitching, the rest of the major leagues has passed the Red Sox by, which might be the biggest reason the Red Sox have not won a playoff game since 2008.

 

From Clemens to Martinez to Schilling, after all, the Red Sox did not merely have an ace at the front of their rotation. They had a legitimate, bona fide front runner for the Cy Young Award. That was true even in 2007, the year of the last Red Sox championship, when Josh Beckett appeared to take the baton.

 

But now? The Red Sox don't have an ace anymore, not a true one, not like Stephen Strasburg. Or maybe even Gio Gonzalez. Or maybe even Jordan Zimmermann. The very best starters in the game now reside in other cities - from Justin Verlander to Jered Weaver to David Price and Clayton Kershaw - and so there is no one the Red Sox can really turn to at the most demanding of times, when the other team has an elite pitcher on the mound and there is no room for error.

 

Blame the offense if you'd like. But the Red Sox almost never outpitch anyone anymore, and the weekend series against the Nationals seemed a prime opportunity. The Nationals left Boston late on Sunday ranked first in the majors in pitching, 26th in runs scored. The Red Sox were almost exactly the opposite (28th, third). The Nationals went 3-0 while the Red Sox went 0-3, which we might attribute to the individual matchups were it not for the bigger picture.

 

This season, the Red Sox are 9-17 against teams that currently rank in the top 10 in the majors in pitching. Boston starters simply are not capable of shutting down opposing teams anymore, even a club as relatively inept as the Nationals. (Washington averaged five runs per game over the weekend.) The Red Sox really have not pitched consistently well for more than a few years now, their starters ranking eighth (in 2009), sixth (in 2010), ninth (in 2011) and 12th (this year) in ERA since their last postseason win.

 

At the same time, no one from among the group of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, or Clay Buchholz has been good enough to carry them, which means the Red Sox have a collection of Nos. 2 and 3 starters (or worse) at the top of their rotation.

 

How the Red Sox are where they are is a story far too long to tell in one sitting, but there was a time when the Sox seemed positioned for long-term success. When the Sox signed Beckett to a four-year, $68 million contract at the start of the 2010 season and then locked up Buchholz in the spring of 2011, the Red Sox had their front four starters (including John Lackey) under team control through at least 2014. Most of us deemed that to a be a good thing (and not a bad one) at the time, which raises myriad questions.

 

Are the Red Sox to blame here for foolishly and prematurely locking up pitchers destined to fade? Or are the pitchers now coasting after having secured tens of millions of dollars each? Lackey got an $82.5 million contract and hasn't pitched well since. Beckett got his money before the 2010 season and ranks 53d among the 84 major league starters with at least 350 innings during that time. (Lester ranks 30th, Lackey dead last.) Since he got his deal in 2011, Buchholz ranks 133d out of 185 pitchers with at least 100 innings.

 

And before anyone suggests that the starters have been pitching well of late, let's all agree on something: good pitchers perform well consistently. They don't have a good month every now and then. Rather, they go through aberrational slumps. Not the other way around.

 

For certain, the Red Sox at the moment are dealing with an array of issues. Jacoby Ellsbury's absence and Adrian Gonzalez' relative impotence has made the Sox extremely vulnerable against righthanded starters that make up the majority of all major league pitchers. (The Sox have a losing record of 18-21 against righthanded pitching, easily the worst in their division.) If and when Ellsbury and Carl Crawford return to the lineup, there is certainly the chance that will change some.

 

Nonetheless, at a time like this, especially, the Red Sox need their pitching to carry them. Since the Red Sox last won a playoff game, the Red Sox have scored more runs than any team in baseball but the New York Yankees, yet Boston's only trip to the playoffs resulted in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels in the fall of 2009.

 

Some people will tell you the Red Sox didn't hit in that series.

 

Others would tell you the Sox got outpitched.

[mvp 78]

Sox might not have a true ace, but it's time to go streaking...

[Emmz]

Yeah, the Sox really don't have that guy who will always give them a chance vs. any lineup and any pitcher anymore. No one in the rotation is truly overpowering.

[redsoxbeatz]

Ellsbury will need another 32 homers in half a season & CC to perform super-TB-esque for this team to go somewhere.

 

and lester needs to learn to pitch again.

 

GO PATRIOTS

[evilhand]

I think there's a chance Clay Buchholz might be in the process of becoming that dominant guy who gives you a chance against any lineup. His 2010 season was an interesting shift in his approach where he finally appeared to figure out how to go deep into games. He pitched to contact more and induced a lot of poor contact. Then 2011 continued along the same path until he got hurt. After a long period of inactivity due to the injury, he came back this year and was really rusty and had trouble repeating his mechanics. Starting about three starts ago, he appears to have gotten back into a rhythm, his mechanics have been sound, and he's found his change up again. The results have been a dominant starter going deep into games and striking out a ton of hitters.

 

Might be a small sample where he just happened to pitch well a few times, but the pitchfx data suggests something might have clicked with him. I'm hoping his start tomorrow will be more of the same and we can start growing more confident about his recent success.

 

Edit: And he's 27 this year, which is about when you expect players to break out.

[mvp 78]

It would be great if Buch broke out. He has the stuff, but being an ace takes mental toughness too. We'll see how it goes.

[evilhand]

The mental toughness arguments always ring hollow with me. It takes a ton of mental toughness to make the majors in the first place. And then guys go on runs where they are really good or dominant and no one says anything about them being mentally weak, but as soon as they struggle or show the slightest loss of composure, the armchair psychologists come out and claim he's a mental midget.

 

Everyone struggles... especially young pitchers (he's 27 this year, so his 2008 was his 23). The whole thing gets overblown and isn't based on anything more tangible that people trying to diagnose him through a television screen.

 

/shrug

[jung]

I will be especially happy for Buch if he is all the way back and will be very happy for him if he can pitch injury free for the remainder of this season.

 

The way the board responds to these pitchers appears to be just another way to describe the problem though.

 

We have argued for months about Lester as the 1 and whether he was doing it or could do it. I think as a board we are finally determining that there are just to many negative issues going on for Lester right now to call him a legitimate 1. Then our next move was to anoint Beckett the 1. But you could tell there has not been much conviction in that. It was a fall back to general disappointment in Lester.

 

Now, Buch might be the guy. Maybe he is at least relative to Lester and Beckett. Well we are just describing a top of the rotation that is just not solid nor dependable at present.

 

I know we all look for different things and some of us are harder to please than others. The only thing I saw that I liked out of the weekend series was smarter, better plate appearances in general on Sunday. There were guys that did not do much with the better pitches they saw as a consequence of making better plate appearances but they were by and large more patient and saw better pitches for it.

 

Just about everything else went the wrong way. We were out-pitched again. Aviles showed us his lack of range going to his right again and probably in a way that made it real difficult not to see it as it is. Plus he is vulnerable on balls hit right at him and he showed us that as well.

 

Pedey may not be sound enough to give us what we need from him and what we expect from him. The super-subs seem now to be hitting tough enough competition for a long enough period of time for them to be faltering maybe a month short of what we really need. Now I guess we are down Nava and don't even have his play to appreciate at the moment.

 

Even Sunday we planted guys on the bases where they landed after a hit. Sunday was much better compared to Friday and Saturday but this weekend we had guys on second with no outs, guys on second with one out, guys on first with no outs and just could not move anybody at times.

 

At the same time that our opponent was generally out-pitching us, he was also manufacturing runs along with way or would knock one out on occasion.

 

Guess I will just hope for a better result today but hope is about all I have at present. I would love to see this trend of smarter baseball and better plate appearances continue and generate more hits and more runs. At least that would be something I could hang onto that is more tangible than hope. This team really kicked my butt this weekend.

[Bellhorn04]

Not quite sure where to post this. Mazzarotti has expressed my viewpoint much more eloquently than I can do it myself. Its all about the pitching, and while ours has improved, its still behind most good teams.

 

By Tony Massarotti, Boston.com Columnist

 

From Roger Clemens to Pedro Martinez to Curt Schilling and beyond, the Red Sox always had an answer. But when it comes time to match up now, with the entire major leagues undergoing an ongoing detoxification, the truth is that the Red Sox simply do not match up anymore.

 

So while the Red Sox continue to blame the umpires and most anyone else (but themselves) in the wake of a weekend sweep at the hands of the pitching-rich Washington Nationals, the evidence suggests a far more worrisome problem. When it comes to premier pitching, the rest of the major leagues has passed the Red Sox by, which might be the biggest reason the Red Sox have not won a playoff game since 2008.

 

From Clemens to Martinez to Schilling, after all, the Red Sox did not merely have an ace at the front of their rotation. They had a legitimate, bona fide front runner for the Cy Young Award. That was true even in 2007, the year of the last Red Sox championship, when Josh Beckett appeared to take the baton.

 

See how Mazz slipped that last sentence in? He's not saying Beckett was an ace that year, he's saying he 'appeared to take the baton'. WTF does that even mean?

 

I just enjoy poking holes in the columns of people like Mazz.

 

The thing is that Beckett's ERA and WHIP were better last year than they were in 2007. So couldn't he possibly be good enough to lead a team to the World Series if he did it in 2007, and also in 2003?

[mvp 78]

Re: Toughness

 

I just don't think some pitchers have the mental makeup to say "we're sucking right now, I'm throwing a CG and putting this on my back." Whereas Lester just complains that he didn't get the right breaks (pitch a CG and you don't worry about things breaking the right or wrong way). Pedro wouldn't have moped after a start the way Lester does. I'm not sure if Buch has the ability to say "screw it, we're winning tonight and it's all on me." We'll see what his next start is like.

[redsoxfan3]

I have to work tonight, but I am heading over to Miami tomorrow night to watch the game. I am interested in seeing the Marlins new park. I just hope I can find parking. Supposedly it really sucks.

[a700hitter]

I have to work tonight' date=' but I am heading over to Miami tomorrow night to watch the game. I am interested in seeing the Marlins new park. I just hope I can find parking. Supposedly it really sucks.[/quote']That's a long haul for you. It must take you about 3 hours. I have heard the same thing about the parking situation. Maybe you can meet up with RSFFL when you are there.

[Elktonnick]

See how Mazz slipped that last sentence in? He's not saying Beckett was an ace that year, he's saying he 'appeared to take the baton'. WTF does that even mean?

 

I just enjoy poking holes in the columns of people like Mazz.

 

The thing is that Beckett's ERA and WHIP were better last year than they were in 2007. So couldn't he possibly be good enough to lead a team to the World Series if he did it in 2007, and also in 2003?

 

Hence the inherent foolishness of over reliance on these stats as meaningful when it comes to winning championships.

[redsoxfan3]

That's a long haul for you. It must take you about 3 hours. I have heard the same thing about the parking situation. Maybe you can meet up with RSFFL when you are there.

 

My fiancee's parents live in Fort Lauderdale, so I am heading over there tomorrow morning. It is only an hour and a half to where they live and only 30 to 40 minutes to downtown Miami. It is not too bad of a drive. I got tickets for $16 a piece off of StubHub in the OF right by the visitors bullpen. The seats are not bad. Face value is $50 a piece for the seats, so for three tickets I saved over $100. I think I got a good deal. Is RSFFL going to the game?

[evilhand]

Re: Toughness

 

I just don't think some pitchers have the mental makeup to say "we're sucking right now, I'm throwing a CG and putting this on my back." Whereas Lester just complains that he didn't get the right breaks (pitch a CG and you don't worry about things breaking the right or wrong way). Pedro wouldn't have moped after a start the way Lester does. I'm not sure if Buch has the ability to say "screw it, we're winning tonight and it's all on me." We'll see what his next start is like.

 

This presumes that it's possible for a pitcher, any pitcher to simply decide to pitch a complete game on any given night. That's just not how it works. If it was, the best in the game would always throw a complete game.

 

The mental toughness argument is nothing more than armchair psychology. If there was any truth to what you suggest above, why didn't Verlander go 9 in his last start? The team had lost 5 of their last 7 and they had an even worse record than the Red Sox (still do). He only went 6 innings that night, so he must lack the mental fortitude to simply decide that the team needs a complete game so it's time for him to go 9. Right?

 

Do you see why this line of reasoning is so weak?

[mvp 78]

This presumes that it's possible for a pitcher, any pitcher to simply decide to pitch a complete game on any given night. That's just not how it works. If it was, the best in the game would always throw a complete game.

 

The mental toughness argument is nothing more than armchair psychology. If there was any truth to what you suggest above, why didn't Verlander go 9 in his last start? The team had lost 5 of their last 7 and they had an even worse record than the Red Sox (still do). He only went 6 innings that night, so he must lack the mental fortitude to simply decide that the team needs a complete game so it's time for him to go 9. Right?

 

Do you see why this line of reasoning is so weak?

 

No because the proof to me is in Lester's whining. Ignoring any impact mental makeup may have seems just as foolhardy to me. Why do some players pitch better in small markets? Why do some relievers pitch great as setup men, but falter in the 9th? I don't claim to know the makeup of any pitcher, but I do think personality and (for the lack of a better word) toughness, play a role in a player's performance.

[evilhand]

I'm not arguing that they don't, but you took the position that your measure of ace make up is being able to decide to carry the team on his back and throw a complete game because the team needs it. That's a ridiculous statement to make.

 

I don't think make up should be ignored, and neither do the Red Sox. But there's a difference between considering mental make up, and simply making up unmeasurable and, frankly, impossible criteria as the measure of an ace.

[VA Sox Fan]

RED SOX (29-31)

 

Podsednik LF

Pedroia 2B

Gonzalez RF

Ortiz 1B

Saltalamacchia C

Youkilis 3B

Sweeney CF

Aviles SS

Pitching: RHP Josh Beckett (4-6, 4.04)

[mvp 78]

I'm not arguing that they don't, but you took the position that your measure of ace make up is being able to decide to carry the team on his back and throw a complete game because the team needs it. That's a ridiculous statement to make.

 

I don't think make up should be ignored, and neither do the Red Sox. But there's a difference between considering mental make up, and simply making up unmeasurable and, frankly, impossible criteria as the measure of an ace.

 

Well, it's not that they decide to pitch a CG, but that they aren't butthurt if a bullpen doesn't bail them out or if they get bad breaks. I also don't think it's the only measure of an ace. Think back when Pedro was here, he called the Yankees his daddy when they beat him. He threw at Einar Diaz when he wanted to. What Sox pitcher now takes control of the plate by brushing back hitters? Can't think of any. What pitcher says "this loss is on me?" Beckett says that once in a while. They just haven't had that guy since 04.

[redsoxbeatz]

RED SOX (29-31)

 

Podsednik LF

Pedroia 2B

Gonzalez RF

Ortiz 1B

Saltalamacchia C

Youkilis 3B

Sweeney CF

Aviles SS

Pitching: RHP Josh Beckett (4-6, 4.04)

 

Wish V had WMB in there, but I guess @NL stadium makes it tough to fit everyone.

 

Need to DL Pedroia to let him heal up. I'd hate to see everyone come back from the DL & Pedroia head to it. Better to have them all back near each other than risk further issues with Pedroia.

[VA Sox Fan]

Well' date=' it's not that they decide to pitch a CG, but that they aren't butthurt if a bullpen doesn't bail them out or if they get bad breaks. I also don't think it's the only measure of an ace. Think back when Pedro was here, he called the Yankees his daddy when they beat him. He threw at Einar Diaz when he wanted to. What Sox pitcher now takes control of the plate by brushing back hitters? Can't think of any. What pitcher says "this loss is on me?" Beckett says that once in a while. They just haven't had that guy since 04.[/quote']

 

Schilling would always take the blame if he had a bad outing too.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I have to work tonight' date=' but I am heading over to Miami tomorrow night to watch the game. I am interested in seeing the Marlins new park. I just hope I can find parking. Supposedly it really sucks.[/quote']

 

I also have to work tonight. I would have gone to all 3 if I could. I'll be there tomorrow night as well. Look for the loudest black guy in the stadium screaming his ass off with a red Pedroia shirt. The stadium imo sucks. Yeah it's nice but the colors look like a damn rainbow. The HR feature was just a piece of s***. I also hate most Miami fans so I'm bound to have someone get mad at me. Where are your seats?

 

Edit:parking sucks anywhere in Miami. Tickets for parking are about 15 bucks.

[evilhand]

But no one controls the inside portion of the plate like Pedro did. That's why he's Pedro. Complaining that they don't have anyone like Pedro is like complaining that we don't have anyone like Verlander. These guys come along once in a blue moon. They're generational talents.

 

The idea of an "ace" is fluid and it's fluid for a reason. There are no specific criteria and it will change from person to person when you ask the question. What matters is performance, not arm chair psychology, not a willingness to throw at guys to back them off the plate.

 

Josh Beckett had, arguably, his best season in Boston in 2011. At worst, it was a close second to 2007. His peripherals have been consistent from year to year and most years his more basic stats look like those of a front of the rotation starter. He's not Verlander. He's not Pedro. But that doesn't mean he's not a number 1. Right now, he's the number 1 for the Sox. Performance from year to year varies, even among guys we all consider aces from other clubs.

 

Look at Lincecum this year. By a quick glance it looks like he's having an awful year. Some people are even questioning if he's hurt, or even if he's starting to decline. But his peripherals are steady and his FIP and xFIP indicate that he's having some poor luck and/or defense impact him, and a .335 BABIP against versus a career .296 back that up.

 

Will he no longer be an ace next year because he had a year that looked worse than it was this year? No, he's still likely to be their best starter and one of the best in the game in 2013 unless there's an elbow or shoulder injury there that hasn't surfaced yet.

 

So when you say he's not an ace, what you're really saying is he's not as good as you want him to be. And that's common among the fanbase right now. I think we were spoiled by having Pedro around here, and then Curt Schilling and his post season dominance which carried over into 2004 and couldn't even be stopped by a torn ligament in his ankle. It was an incredible run of great pitching, but that's not typical and we need to get it out of our heads that a guy like Beckett isn't an ace.

 

Let me ask you a question... if you had to list every ace pitcher in the majors right now, who would they be?

[evilhand]

Wish V had WMB in there, but I guess @NL stadium makes it tough to fit everyone.

 

Need to DL Pedroia to let him heal up. I'd hate to see everyone come back from the DL & Pedroia head to it. Better to have them all back near each other than risk further issues with Pedroia.

 

Middlebrooks has trouble with sliders and Johnson's best pitch is his slider.

[Cocos Disciples]

Just win the damn baseball game.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Middlebrooks has trouble with sliders and Johnson's best pitch is his slider.

 

But Youkilis, now there's a guy who can hit a slider.

 

I don't understand playing Youk and sitting WMB. I understand that you have to play Youk to trade Youk, but you also have to win games and WMB clearly gives the team a better chance.

[evilhand]

But Youkilis, now there's a guy who can hit a slider.

 

I don't understand playing Youk and sitting WMB. I understand that you have to play Youk to trade Youk, but you also have to win games and WMB clearly gives the team a better chance.

 

Youk's wSL is -0.8 while Middlebrooks is at -1.2. Neither guy hits them well, but Youk is less of a liability versus them by about 50%.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Youk's wSL is -0.8 while Middlebrooks is at -1.2. Neither guy hits them well' date=' but Youk is less of a liability versus them by about 50%.[/quote']

 

Couple things.

 

First off, Youk had a wSL of -6.0 last year, and has continued down that path this year. He looks absolutely foolish vs sliders. The problem with him is that he has a negative value in every pitch but a change up. Middlebrooks, on the other hand, has a positive value on every other pitch except for a split.

 

The reason this is important is because Josh Johnson's slider isn't nearly as effective this year as it has been in years past (-1.7 wSL this year vs 7.6, 8.5, 9.0 in 2011, 2010, 2009). He's also decreased the frequency in which he throws it (22.8% in '12, 24.6% in '11, 27.7% in '10). So less frequency and less effective makes results vs the Slider less important this year than in years past. And outside of the slider (pitches thrown 77.2% of the time), Middlebrooks has an advantage, as follows.

 

FB: 55.8% Frequency. WMB wFB: 0.5. KY wFB: -0.1

CB: 12.8% Frequency. WMB wCB: 1.5 KY wCB: -0.4

CH: 8.6% Frequency. WMB wCH: 0.7 KY wCH: 1.5

 

Plus, WMB has shown much better plate discipline as of late, and better contact as well. In his past 8 games (28 PA, going back to 5/30), he has K'd 3 times and BB'd 3 times. Youk has been awful in this regard, in that same span (38 PA), he's K'd 11 times and walked 4. Arbitrary, sure, but at the same time Youk has shown very little plate discipline as of late, and when you sit Middlebrooks, you're just getting him off of his timing. Hitters thrive on consistent playing time, just have a look at Pedroia lately.

[jung]

Boy we need a win tonight. What a rotten weekend for us. Rays win three straight....Yankees win three straight and 8 of their last 10 (I think) and we lose three straight. Yuk!

 

As far as WMB and Youk go I think I would disagree with the patience at the plate thing. Youk has been very patient at the plate since coming off the DL. To be honest I think the Sox are doing themselves a real disservice playing WMB this way though. If they are going to do this then maybe the Sox should send WMB down. Playing him once every three or four days and then maybe not liking the result stinks. That is not really even giving WMB a chance.