5/30 Tigers vs Red Sox

[jung]

I think V is taking a lot of risk all over the place at present. Maybe it will work out...maybe it will blow up in his face. All it would have taken to look like a blow up would have been for AGons to roll over that wrist on his glove hand tonight and that would have been that.

[evilhand]

That's makes no sense.

 

50 games * 9 players per game = 450 total games.

 

You can't say "We lose 7 games per day for each OF" because not all 7 of them would be playing.

 

It's not meant as a real time measure of time lost. It's just a consistent way to compare injuries across teams. The data is linked in my post. Take a look at the sibpin link to get a better idea of how it works.

 

I was just comparing time lost from this team to time lost from the 2010 team. Does it matter if the measure has real world practical application so long as the data is consistent for both teams?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Would they have started so slow had they been healthy? Specifically, Bailey and Andrew Miller?

 

Injuries were the main reason the team lasted so long to hit its stride, and it's still honestly relying on a lot of pixie dust to survive.

 

This is impossible to determine. You can look at the games vs DET and NYY where they blew the leads late, and say "Those 2 are definite wins", but then how do we know if Bailey was going to be perfect in other games?

 

You can't just look at the losses and say "We win this game if we have Bailey" and then look at the wins and say "He saves each of these as well".

 

Ultimately, Aceves has blown 3 games. Would he have blown those 3 pitching in the 8th? Would Bailey have even come in? And if the Sox do win those 3 games, how does the team react? Are they playing better now because they hit rock bottom and have a bit of a chip on their shoulder? Would a couple early wins have turned the entire early season around?

 

It's just impossible to know.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Irony at its best.

 

Its very best.

[User Name]

This is impossible to determine. You can look at the games vs DET and NYY where they blew the leads late, and say "Those 2 are definite wins", but then how do we know if Bailey was going to be perfect in other games?

 

You can't just look at the losses and say "We win this game if we have Bailey" and then look at the wins and say "He saves each of these as well".

 

Ultimately, Aceves has blown 3 games. Would he have blown those 3 pitching in the 8th? Would Bailey have even come in? And if the Sox do win those 3 games, how does the team react? Are they playing better now because they hit rock bottom and have a bit of a chip on their shoulder? Would a couple early wins have turned the entire early season around?

 

It's just impossible to know.

 

Do you honestly think the blowout against the Yankees happens with a healthy Bailey? And don't you think the BP would have been better overall with Aceves in his super-all role?

 

Sure, it may be impossible to determine, but it's not a stretch (in fact, it's perfectly logical) to think that a better composed bullpen saves this team a lot of early grief. Using Aceves' BS as basis for the argument is cherry-picking. The composition of the BP changes completely if Bailey is healthy to begin the season.

 

Besides, that's only one side of the coin: What about the rest of the walking wounded?

[SoxFanForsyth]

It's not meant as a real time measure of time lost. It's just a consistent way to compare injuries across teams. The data is linked in my post. Take a look at the sibpin link to get a better idea of how it works.

 

I was just comparing time lost from this team to time lost from the 2010 team. Does it matter if the measure has real world practical application so long as the data is consistent for both teams?

 

It would likely have more practical application if the players games were multiplied by the players prior year WAR/GP.

 

So, for Pedroia (2011 WAR of 8.0/162 = 0.49 WAR/game), he's missed 2 games, that's 0.98 WAR. It's just a way of weighting the players on a talent scale rather than assuming that an injury to Mike Cameron is the same as an injury to Jacoby Ellsbury (2012 version).

 

Just an opinion, though. I see where you're going with it and it seems like a good exercise.

[Bellhorn04]

I think V is taking a lot of risk all over the place at present. Maybe it will work out...maybe it will blow up in his face. All it would have taken to look like a blow up would have been for AGons to roll over that wrist on his glove hand tonight and that would have been that.

 

Yeah, good point. He's been forced into some of this by the situation but there is some real gambling going on.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Do you honestly think the blowout against the Yankees happens with a healthy Bailey? And don't you think the BP would have been better overall with Aceves in his super-all role?

 

Sure, it may be impossible to determine, but it's not a stretch (in fact, it's perfectly logical) to think that a better composed bullpen saves this team a lot of early grief. Using Aceves' BS as basis for the argument is cherry-picking. The composition of the BP changes completely if Bailey is healthy to begin the season.

 

Besides, that's only one side of the coin: What about the rest of the walking wounded?

 

But you're assuming that Bailey wouldn't have a blown save. That's what I'm getting at. You can't guarantee that Bailey would have been flawless. I agree, if we had Miller and Bailey against the Yankees, the Sox probably win.

 

As far as the others, Ellsbury is a major injury, but he was here for the first few games when the Sox were still losing. Crawford's replacement in Sweeney is playing very well. By no means am I saying that they wouldn't be better off with their regulars, that would be ridiculous. But at the same time, the Rays lost Farnsworth before the season. The Yankees lost Mo about 12-15 games in, etc.

[a700hitter]

Its very best.

and never miss an opportunity to troll.

[evilhand]

This. He's a big part of the pitching staff's problem.

 

Based on what? There's actually data that conflicts with this thought. The fielding bible has him as slightly better than average at pitch framing and so far, they're the only ones publishing data on it.

 

And calling a game isn't the sole responsibility of the catcher. The game plan is worked on before the game starts with the pitching coaches, the pitcher, the catcher, the manager and a ton of data. Many teams call pitches from the bench for some or all of the game. So any weakness in game calling can, and likely would be mitigated this way.

 

Add to that the fact that he's one of the best power hitting catchers in the game, and that his OPS this year is 5th among all catchers with 100 or more PAs and his SLG is 3rd.

 

Frankly, he's one of the best catchers in baseball, and since Shoppach is hitting over his head right now, moving Salty would seem a really bad idea.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think V is taking a lot of risk all over the place at present. Maybe it will work out...maybe it will blow up in his face. All it would have taken to look like a blow up would have been for AGons to roll over that wrist on his glove hand tonight and that would have been that.

 

What choice does he have, though? Managers in short term deals, especially in Boston, are in a "win now" situation. He's not going to have much of a chance to win now if he doesn't put Gonzo in RF. It's a risk, sure, but I don't blame him for rolling the dice.

[Bellhorn04]

It would likely have more practical application if the players games were multiplied by the players prior year WAR/GP.

 

So, for Pedroia (2011 WAR of 8.0/162 = 0.49 WAR/game), he's missed 2 games, that's 0.98 WAR. It's just a way of weighting the players on a talent scale rather than assuming that an injury to Mike Cameron is the same as an injury to Jacoby Ellsbury (2012 version).

 

Just an opinion, though. I see where you're going with it and it seems like a good exercise.

 

It would take Pedroia 20 games to reach 0.98 WAR.

[SoxFanForsyth]

It would take Pedroia 20 games to reach 0.98 WAR.

 

Yes. My math was off by a zero. To quote Office Space, probably by a decimal or something. I hate mundane details.

[evilhand]

It would take Pedroia 20 games to reach 0.98 WAR.

 

Looks like a decimal point error somewhere. But his point is well received.

 

My original point was simply that this team has seen as many injuries in 1/3 of a season as the 2010 team did all year. It's mind boggling how bad the injury luck has been this year. So for someone above to suggest that the Sox aren't any worse off than other teams in the AL seems a bit of an odd statement.

[jung]

I am more concerned with Pedey being out for an inordinate amount of time than any of these other injuries mainly cause Pedey is such a great defender as well as being an offensive threat.

 

The Sox have been second in offense in the league so it is hard to say that the offense has really suffered with the injuries. Do we really think more runs would have made a significant difference? I thought they were going to suffer more than this offensively myself but it has not happened. They have lived and died with their pitching. Short of Pedey spending any real time out of the lineup, it appears to me that the Sox have at least for 50 games found a way to keep the offensive ship afloat even with the injuries.

 

Not saying they will not need their players back because guys have played over their heads to make this happen. I doubt that can go on forever. But to this point I think it is hard to make a case for the injuries having been that much of an issue.

[jung]

What choice does he have, though? Managers in short term deals, especially in Boston, are in a "win now" situation. He's not going to have much of a chance to win now if he doesn't put Gonzo in RF. It's a risk, sure, but I don't blame him for rolling the dice.

 

I think that if they want to keep all these bats in the lineup at the same time they need to find a different position for WMB who is a much more athletic player than AGons. Agons in RF is looking less like risk and much more like Russian Roulette especially after tonight.

 

AGons is not out there for his defense. He is out there because they want to keep his bat, Ortiz, Youk and WMB in the lineup at the same time. Agons is not my favorite player for a number of reasons. However we are asking him to choose between the risk of injury and making routine plays. That is a lousy position for the player and really an unfair position. We should not kid ourselves that we are doing less. We are asking him to choose between risking injury and making routine plays.

 

Really when you look at AGons production in last few weeks either they should find another position for WMB if they are adamant about keeping all these bats in the lineup at once or they should "rest" Agons a bit more. He is doing very little with the bat at this point to justify the risk they are taking with him in RF. That HR he hit a few days ago was the consummate Fenway homer, an out everywhere else. That RBI double he got tonight was an embarrassment for both Coke the pitcher and the Tigers Right Fielder. It should not have happened. Agons is not hitting at present. Rest him a few days. He might actually come back and hit again.

 

We can live without watching AGons swing aimlessly for a few days. We cannot live without Ortiz, Youk and WMB for their power and we cannot live without Nava for his overall playing ability at this point. Either find another position for WMB or rest AGons for a few days and see where we are then.

 

While they are doing that, work WMB out at another position and see what they have.

[Cocos Disciples]

Gonzalez not only cannot hit the baseball...

 

Interestingly, this was after Gonzalez hit a 2-out double that led to 4 runs in the inning.

 

Good win. I'll bring some Coco mojo to Fenway tomorrow. Shame I'll miss the complaints about the single that Beckett will give up in the 2nd, or the Gonzalez 5th inning ground out.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Interestingly, this was after Gonzalez hit a 2-out double that led to 4 runs in the inning.

 

Good win. I'll bring some Coco mojo to Fenway tomorrow. Shame I'll miss the complaints about the single that Beckett will give up in the 2nd, or the Gonzalez 5th inning ground out.

FRONT OFFICE BALLWASHER

[redsoxbeatz]

More evidence that something's not right with Gonzalez: tonight was his sixth multi-strikeout game in last 16 games. #RedSoxTalk

[BornToRun]

 

You realize he ripped two doubles? One of which won the game?

[User Name]

But you're assuming that Bailey wouldn't have a blown save. That's what I'm getting at. You can't guarantee that Bailey would have been flawless. I agree, if we had Miller and Bailey against the Yankees, the Sox probably win.

 

As far as the others, Ellsbury is a major injury, but he was here for the first few games when the Sox were still losing. Crawford's replacement in Sweeney is playing very well. By no means am I saying that they wouldn't be better off with their regulars, that would be ridiculous. But at the same time, the Rays lost Farnsworth before the season. The Yankees lost Mo about 12-15 games in, etc.

 

Cherry picking with the blown save thing. The point is that the amount of injuries the Red Sox sustained directly affected their early-season performance. That is not debatable.

 

Based on what? There's actually data that conflicts with this thought. The fielding bible has him as slightly better than average at pitch framing and so far, they're the only ones publishing data on it.

 

And calling a game isn't the sole responsibility of the catcher. The game plan is worked on before the game starts with the pitching coaches, the pitcher, the catcher, the manager and a ton of data. Many teams call pitches from the bench for some or all of the game. So any weakness in game calling can, and likely would be mitigated this way.

 

Add to that the fact that he's one of the best power hitting catchers in the game, and that his OPS this year is 5th among all catchers with 100 or more PAs and his SLG is 3rd.

 

Frankly, he's one of the best catchers in baseball, and since Shoppach is hitting over his head right now, moving Salty would seem a really bad idea.

 

Innacurate statistic heavily influenced by umpire performance. It doesn't take a whole lot of statistical analysis to see that Red Sox pitchers fare worse with Salty than with other catchers. Not everything can be accurately measured statistically (yet) so don't waste your time with incomplete stats.

 

As for his offense, he's currently above average, but he's actually hitting over his head if you take career norms into account. It's not a big sample, but it's indicative of performance. Also, while his BABIP is not heavily inflated, his LD% is, and regression in that department is a big problem for low-contact guys like him, specially with an unsustainable 21% of his fly balls leaving the yard. Expect regression.

[Dojji]

It doesn't take a whole lot of statistical analysis to see that Red Sox pitchers fare worse with Salty than with other catchers.

 

Yeah, because CERA's not a flawed stat at all. There's a lot that goes into a pitcher's performance that has nothing to do with anything the catcher did.

[User Name]

Yeah' date=' because CERA's not a flawed stat at all. There's a lot that goes into a pitcher's performance that has nothing to do with anything the catcher did.[/quote']

 

Where did i mention CERA? Learn to read.

[Dojji]

If you're talking about pitchers' ERA when a certain catcher is handling them. you're pretty much talking about CERA.

[User Name]

If you're talking about pitchers' ERA when a certain catcher is handling them. you're pretty much talking about CERA.

 

This is literally what i said:

 

Innacurate statistic heavily influenced by umpire performance. It doesn't take a whole lot of statistical analysis to see that Red Sox pitchers fare worse with Salty than with other catchers. Not everything can be accurately measured statistically (yet) so don't waste your time with incomplete stats.

 

Can you point me in the direction of the mention of ERA or CERA?

[redsoxbeatz]

You realize he ripped two doubles? One of which won the game?

 

The 2nd double would have been an out versus any other competent OF. okay, he got lucky there and the sox won: HOORAY! I'm happy, no doubt. But, when discussing it in terms of AGonzsucksalotfor20mperyear then it's not impressive cause anywhere else he woulda' been o-u-t.

 

1st double, awesome. +2 K's.

 

The point is this time last year Adrian was raking. Then he slumped a bit post-ASB to end. Maybe he'll do it reverse this year?

 

20m/yr+ salary? Too me it sounds like he should be producing every day from day one.

[VA Sox Fan]

Interestingly, this was after Gonzalez hit a 2-out double that led to 4 runs in the inning.

 

Good win. I'll bring some Coco mojo to Fenway tomorrow. Shame I'll miss the complaints about the single that Beckett will give up in the 2nd, or the Gonzalez 5th inning ground out.

 

That's Fairweather for ya.

[FredLynn]

Blah blah blah Red Sox suck, blah blah blah they have no heart, blah blah blah punt the season, blah blah blah inept FO.

 

2.5 out of first before May ends and with half the team on the DL. How good can this team be if it gets fully healthy?

 

It will be as good as the pitching is and no better. We were always going to score runs. Our problem was always pitching, as it has been for years. We remain in 13th place in the AL in that department, and we are a total of two (thats 2) games over .500. I would say that the performance to date is mediocre but improving. Sorry to rain on your parade.

[BornToRun]

It will be as good as the pitching is and no better. We were always going to score runs. Our problem was always pitching' date=' as it has been for years. We remain in 13th place in the AL in that department, and we are a total of two (thats 2) games over .500. I would say that the performance to date is mediocre but improving. Sorry to rain on your parade.[/quote']

 

Considering that the injury fairy has cornered us in an alley, raped us, and left us bleeding in the trunk of a Buick under the overpass. I'd say two games over the line is pretty good.

[evilhand]

Innacurate statistic heavily influenced by umpire performance. It doesn't take a whole lot of statistical analysis to see that Red Sox pitchers fare worse with Salty than with other catchers. Not everything can be accurately measured statistically (yet) so don't waste your time with incomplete stats.

 

Actually, as with any fielding bible stat, someone watches each pitch and judges it based on what they see, not what the ump calls. And with pitchfx data so easily available, it's not hard to weed out the bad calls. But that's besides the point. What you're saying here is screw the evidence we actually have, we should all just trust what your eyes are telling us. How is that a better approach than using the data that exists?

 

What we do have says Salty is slightly better than average at receiving pitches.

 

As for his offense' date=' he's currently above average, but he's actually hitting over his head if you take career norms into account. It's not a big sample, but it's indicative of performance. Also, while his BABIP is not heavily inflated, his LD% is, and regression in that department is a big problem for low-contact guys like him, specially with an unsustainable 21% of his fly balls leaving the yard. Expect regression.[/quote']

 

Why should we expect him to regress to his career line? Why are his age 22-25 seasons predictive? At that age, many players struggle. Never mind catchers, who are notorious for developing later. His lines since joining the Sox (age 26 and 27) seem far better if we're trying to figure out what to expect.

 

.235/.288/.450

.274/.311/.573

 

Taking into account that he's 27 years old, the typical start of a player's prime years, I see no reason to expect a heavy drop in performance. Is he as good as he's been since getting hit on the ear? No, of course not. He's on a hot streak and will cool off. And he's a streaky hitter, so he'll have some bad cold spells before the season is over. But there's a pretty good chance his pop is for real and that makes him one of the more valuable catchers in the majors.

 

Would I trade him for Buster Posey? Sure. But a trade like that isn't on the block and the actual possible replacements would bring far less to the table than a guy who hit the ball as hard as Salty. Would you seriously rather have a Lavarnway/Shoppach platoon? If you think Salty is a bad receiver, you're in for a treat with Lavarnway. Plus, after a monster season in the minors last year, Lavarnway is only hitting. .274/.376/.384 on the year. So you'd be trading power for OBP.

 

Right now, the combination of Salty and Shoppach is one of the best catching situations in the majors. Suggesting that Salty is some kind of problem that absolutely has to go is ridiculous.

 

The guys at fangraphs.com think his power is real and it's coming at an age you'd expect him to break out. Why should we assume he can't keep being one of the best power hitting catchers out there? This is the second season we've seen impressive power from him in a row, and there's a clear progression over the last 3.

 

And you point to his LD rate as heavily inflated and his HR/FB rate as unsustainable. His current 25.3 LD% isn't really an outlier, though. He was at 21.3% last year, 23.2% in 2009 and 27.2% in 2008. 2007 was his rookie season at age 22 and 2010 only had 30 total PAs, so neither is relevant here.

 

In short, he's always had solid line drive rates and if he has broken out over the last season and two months, there's no reason to assume that rate is going to drop. As for his HR/FB, it's slightly inflated due to the ridiculous hot streak he's been on since getting hit in the ear, but expecting it to drop significantly seems pessimistic unless you are dismissing the possibility that he's breaking out at the age you'd expect him to break out.

 

At best, he's finally living up to his potential and is becoming one of the best catchers in the game. At worst he's a streaky hitter who, when used in a platoon can provide solid offensive value while being slightly above average at receiving pitches according to the data that is available.

 

Seems like he's a far cry from some huge problem the Sox need to shed themselves of as quickly as possible.