2012 Catch-All Trade Deadline Thread

[evilhand]

Yeah, Michael Bowden wasn't ruined by not pitching in the majors. He was exposed as a middling talent without any real plus pitches because he never had any in the first place. He's a classic AAAA player.

[TutGadol]

It's never too early for a good trade deadline speculation thread!

 

The Sox have a number of tradeable pieces at this point, including prospects who are more-or -less ready (Lavarnway, Iglesias, Middlebrooks), high upside prospects who aren't ready yet (too many to mention) and MLB pieces who might interest contending teams (Youkilis, Beckett, Lester (?) ).

 

Top priorities:

- Top tier SP

- Relief help

- OF help

- Prospects (?)

 

I think the Sox will still be in contention when the deadline arrives, even if they are only playing about .500 baseball. With Ellsbury and Crawford, Bailey, Dice-K and Melancon hopefully returning they should have quite a few new faces around in July.

 

Load up for 2012? Punt on 2012 in favor of 2013?

 

All of these things and more can be discussed in this wonderful catch-all thread.

 

I'm not sure about the top tier starter, I think trading away money and going for Hamels would be a better option. Also, I don't think the team needs more OF, when the 4 injured ones get healthy we'll have an overload of decent outfielders. I actually think we should look to sell some replacement level outfielders for a right handed reliever.

 

I think there is a deal to work with the rangers, they could use Youk and a lefty reliever (Which we have an overload of), and we could use Uehara and maybe Alberto Gonzalez (Maybe we can even dump Punto in there?).

[TutGadol]

Dempster scares me a little. He's throwing pretty well over his head right now (2.9 BB/9 compared to 4.1 career, 1.153 WHIP compared to 1.442 career). I don't think his stuff translates to the AL East as well as Garza's stuff does.

 

Garza would cost more than Dempster, for sure. But he would also really solidify the rotation and even the bullpen via moving Bard to the pen. I would put Garza up against just about any #3 in the AL and expect to win or at least be in the game. It would also slot Buchholz down to the #4 slot, and Doubront down to the #5 slot, which gives this team a big edge in both of those aspects.

 

I agree that even if Buch is warming up if we indeed get Garza he should be n. 3, since he throws so little innings per start, it would be wise to put him between guys who can go past the 6th with ease. But for some reason I have a feeling the FO would like to split the lefties and put Garza 5th.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here's the issue with Garza. He has the chops, he has the experience and he has been a #2 on a world series team. Here are the two issues with Garza.

 

1. The Cubs gave up A TON of talent for him. Now, that talent looks like a dud, but at the time, Archer and Lee were very highly touted prospects and Chirinos was a blocked 26 yr old catcher with a ton of talent. The Cubs got the better end of the deal, no doubt, but if they are just going to turn around and deal Garza, they need to get a similar prospect haul.

 

2. Garza is having a VERY deceiving season. Last yr, he went to the Cubs and dominated to a level he hadnt shown before. K rate near 9, walk rate at a career low, he halved his HR rate and gave nearly 200IP. This yr, the K rate is still high, the walk rate is higher than his career average, the HR rate is back up, but his pitch counts and durability is trending poorly. Almost like he is going for the K so much that he cannot stay in games. His velo is fine, so stuff isnt an issue.

 

Going through his starts, May seems to be the reason for his diminished numbers. Maybe he turns it around in June, who knows, but in May, he averaged less than 5IP per start and pitched to a 6+ERA. If he comes back and shows the durability he showed in April (6.5IP per start), then you got me. Maybe we get him anyway and see if he can do it again, but he has had a sudden wild streak mixed in with a sudden rise in taters, I'd want to see more before emptying the farm for him

 

Another interesting trade proposal would include one of the pitchers from our current roster. Ivan Nova won 16 games last yr, and the big knock on him was that he couldnt K people. Now he is striking people out in droves, but cannot seem to get soft contact. The Yankees need him to be locking down the #3 slot and he's currently pitching like a call-up in need of a send down. Also, Phil Hughes has shown similar flashes of brilliance with a high K rate, but has been pounded enough to make his spot a little tenuous. Maybe a Nova, Warren, Joseph deal for Garza gets it done

[Palodios]

Theo is trying to build for the future. I seriously doubt he's going to trade away his ace for a pile of #4/#5 or relief pitchers. He'd much rather get high-ceiling prospects than average major leaguers, and for a AL East proven talent, I'd bet that he could definitely get it.

[jacksonianmarch]

I bet he could. That being said, I think you are underselling Nova at this point. Like I said, 16 game winner, #2 on a playoff team and his one knock from last yr has been rectified. He's exactly the kind of player you would want in this deal, since he could work out his kinks on a last place team and get it right. A lot of the blue chip prospects will have to go through what Nova is going through (see Matt Moore this yr). You're already through some of it. And Garza is a proven middle of the rotation pitcher in the AL East. It's not like he is a shutdown ace, although Theo will want to portray him as such

[Palodios]

I bet he could. That being said' date=' I think you are underselling Nova at this point. Like I said, 16 game winner, #2 on a playoff team and his one knock from last yr has been rectified. He's exactly the kind of player you would want in this deal, since he could work out his kinks on a last place team and get it right. A lot of the blue chip prospects will have to go through what Nova is going through (see Matt Moore this yr). You're already through some of it. And Garza is a proven middle of the rotation pitcher in the AL East. It's not like he is a shutdown ace, although Theo will want to portray him as such[/quote']

 

Nova is a solid player. He's definitely going to be a very good #4 pitcher, maybe a #3 on a mediocre team. But if you have an elite bullpen and an elite batting order, 16 wins means very little. If you look at the contending teams #2s from the past few years, how does he compare with guys like Fister, Hamels, Greinke, Price, Cain, Beckett, Hanson?

[User Name]

i think he means Ben Cherrington cant decide and Cashman will pull the plug on the trade...

 

I was being facetious. I know what it means, what i'm saying is that it doesn't make any sense.

[User Name]

Nova is a solid player. He's definitely going to be a very good #4 pitcher' date=' maybe a #3 on a mediocre team. But if you have an elite bullpen and an elite batting order, 16 wins means very little. If you look at the contending teams #2s from the past few years, how does he compare with guys like Fister, Hamels, Greinke, Price, Cain, Beckett, Hanson?[/quote']

 

Fister is not that good. I don't get the love for the guy.

[seabeachfred]

I have no clue what the hell your talking about. Michael Bowden started 2007 in the California League (High-A) and wasn't even the best pitcher in the Red Sox organization http://soxprospects.com/history.htm. I love Middlebrooks' date=' but if you watch his at bats he clearly looks like a guy that use more seasoning in AAA (only 56 ABs). His stats back this up with a BABIP at nearly .400 and a K rate of 29%, the power may be undeniable but eventually the law of averages is going to balance out and it could get ugly very fast. When he does struggle and the Sox are forced to keep him in the majors because Youk is gone, it will be incredibly detrimental for his long term potential. The list of guys that never panned out because they were rushed to the big leagues is much longer than the guys that achieved sustained success at each level before reaching the majors. In my opinion, this is just a journalist trying to make headlines. Youk will remain the 3rd baseman and Middlebrooks will be optioned down to Pawtucket once interleague starts back up again.[/quote']

 

Maybe you better read more carefully yourself. He may have started the season in the CL, but he roared through two classifications and started a game for the Red Sox in the summer of 2007 in Chicago (he won). As for Middlebrooks, you're full of crap. I see his AB's and see someone who most certainly doesn't need any more damn seasoning. On the inside pitch he quickly brings his hands in and attacks the ball square. Hence the ball is not a long four but a seed down the line. I've seen him do that numerous times in his "56" AB's. Today if you had your goggles on right you would have seen how he went the o ther way and boomed one over the RF's head for a two out clutch RBI. This is guy is the real thing and has the maturity and moxie to make it big. Sorry my friend but I know a big league hitter when I see one and this guy is one.

[mvp 78]

You also said Lavs didn't need more time in AAA, but he's not doing all that hot down there. Do you think he's still the real deal because of 2 HRs last year and is just not performing because he's too good for Pawtucket?

 

I'm not trying to be bitchy, just an honest question. Is he languishing like you thought Bowden did?

[jacksonianmarch]

Nova is a solid player. He's definitely going to be a very good #4 pitcher' date=' maybe a #3 on a mediocre team. But if you have an elite bullpen and an elite batting order, 16 wins means very little. If you look at the contending teams #2s from the past few years, how does he compare with guys like Fister, Hamels, Greinke, Price, Cain, Beckett, Hanson?[/quote']

 

Fister is an outlier and Garza isnt any of the other pitchers

[SoxFanForsyth]

Fister is an outlier and Garza isnt any of the other pitchers

 

Funny, because if Garza was on the Yankees right now as their #2 (which he would be this year), and there was a Beckett vs Garza match up, I guarantee you would favor Garza over Beckett.

[jacksonianmarch]

Beckett has shown he can be an ace when he wants to in the AL East. Garza was more consistent, Beckett was capable of being more dominant

[SoxFanForsyth]

Beckett has shown he can be an ace when he wants to in the AL East. Garza was more consistent' date=' Beckett was capable of being more dominant[/quote']

 

I don't understand the distaste for Garza.

 

I would welcome him with open arms on the Red Sox. In the 3 seasons with the Rays, he posted a 3.86 ERA. And he was playing for a team with a weak offense, meaning he wasn't getting to face the Rays to dip his ERA. He was instead having to face the likes of the Sox, Yanks, and Jays, all of which could put up runs.

 

Personally, I always thought he would be a good pitcher. He would likely be the Sox #3, Yanks #2/3, depending on how they slot Kuroda (I would imagine Garza goes to the 2 slot).

 

Garza had a couple tough outings this year, but that doesn't mean he's a bad pitcher.

 

I'll put it this way - I would be thrilled if the Sox could get Garza, and I'd be pissed if the Yankees got him.

[BornToRun]

I don't understand the distaste for Garza.

 

I would welcome him with open arms on the Red Sox. In the 3 seasons with the Rays, he posted a 3.86 ERA. And he was playing for a team with a weak offense, meaning he wasn't getting to face the Rays to dip his ERA. He was instead having to face the likes of the Sox, Yanks, and Jays, all of which could put up runs.

 

Personally, I always thought he would be a good pitcher. He would likely be the Sox #3, Yanks #2/3, depending on how they slot Kuroda (I would imagine Garza goes to the 2 slot).

 

Garza had a couple tough outings this year, but that doesn't mean he's a bad pitcher.

 

I'll put it this way - I would be thrilled if the Sox could get Garza, and I'd be pissed if the Yankees got him.

 

I'm with you. I've always had my eye on garza.

[jacksonianmarch]

SFF, I would welcome him with open arms as well. I just think Theo is looking for an ace haul for a guy who is really a #3, maybe a #2 who is showing an alarming lack of depth this yr. If we can get him for the commensurate value of a #3, then yeah, I am game

[SoxFanForsyth]

SFF' date=' I would welcome him with open arms as well. I just think Theo is looking for an ace haul for a guy who is really a #3, maybe a #2 who is showing an alarming lack of depth this yr. If we can get him for the commensurate value of a #3, then yeah, I am game[/quote']

 

We just differ in our valuation of him. I would be willing to overpay a little for him. Not an ace haul, but overpay slightly.

 

If the Sox could trade Youk + $3-4mm to the Dodgers or ChiSox for a high level prospect (not top 100, but fringe top 100), then send that prospect plus a guy like Brentz and a mid level guy like Lin to the Cubs for Garza + $3-4mm (replacing the money they lost on Youk), I would pull the trigger on that. Especially because Garza is under control for next season as well.

[jacksonianmarch]

We just differ in our valuation of him. I would be willing to overpay a little for him. Not an ace haul, but overpay slightly.

 

If the Sox could trade Youk + $3-4mm to the Dodgers or ChiSox for a high level prospect (not top 100, but fringe top 100), then send that prospect plus a guy like Brentz and a mid level guy like Lin to the Cubs for Garza + $3-4mm (replacing the money they lost on Youk), I would pull the trigger on that. Especially because Garza is under control for next season as well.

 

When you look at what the Cubs gave up, I think that would be a pittance compared to what they are looking for. My guess is Theo is going to look for a Ubaldo haul, with White and Pomeranz being top 100 pitching prospects and Pomeranz being an ace in waiting. If Theo wants that, then he can go screw.

[VA Sox Fan]

I'm with you. I've always had my eye on garza.

 

Not in a million years would I want Garza. Sorry.

[jacksonianmarch]

SFF, he would look absolutely awesome behind CC and Pettitte in a playoff rotation. But if we have to part with Banuelos plus for him, then I am not behind it. I do think a deal centered around Nova would be appropriate value.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Not in a million years would I want Garza. Sorry.

 

You just don't like him because he spits like a camel. I know you better than that!

[SoxFanForsyth]

When you look at what the Cubs gave up' date=' I think that would be a pittance compared to what they are looking for. My guess is Theo is going to look for a Ubaldo haul, with White and Pomeranz being top 100 pitching prospects and Pomeranz being an ace in waiting. If Theo wants that, then he can go screw.[/quote']

 

I agree, I wouldn't overpay that much for him. I'm definitely content with our rotation as is, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't be interested in improving it. But yeah, an Ubaldo haul, Theo can get bent.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't even know where to post this, I'm just posting it here because there is recent activity. This is sick.

 

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/73374843/Hammer.gif

[jacksonianmarch]

That is nasty. That kid is gonna be a great closer for them one day.

[FredLynn]

I agree' date=' I wouldn't overpay that much for him. I'm definitely content with our rotation as is, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't be interested in improving it. But yeah, an Ubaldo haul, Theo can get bent.[/quote']

 

When Bard returns to the bullpen (and thats inevitable this season because he is on an innings diet) we are going to need a good SP to replace him. I know Matsusaka is coming back, but I do not trust his ability to win games. We have a lot of pieces to get Garza headlined Kevin Youkilis. Our rotation with him in it and Bard in the pen would be very very good if Lester can find himself.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That is nasty. That kid is gonna be a great closer for them one day.

 

Yup. Which means Brandon League is an interesting name to consider at the deadline as well.

[VA Sox Fan]

You just don't like him because he spits like a camel. I know you better than that!

 

Obviously, that's part of the reason. He just hasn't done much lately and I think Theo will want to keep him.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Theo is going to look for a Barnes and Ranaudo package to start. Just like I think he'd ask for a Banuelos and Sanchez package to start.

[SoxFanForsyth]

When Bard returns to the bullpen (and thats inevitable this season because he is on an innings diet) we are going to need a good SP to replace him. I know Matsusaka is coming back' date=' but I do not trust his ability to win games. We have a lot of pieces to get Garza headlined Kevin Youkilis. Our rotation with him in it and Bard in the pen would be very very good if Lester can find himself.[/quote']

 

Yeah - I mean I think DiceK can be a serviceable #5 starter.

 

Look at what Bard has given us thus far from the 5 slot. He's averaging 5.85 IP per Start. He's got a 4.61 ERA in his starts. He's got a 1.07 K/BB ratio. And the Red Sox are 5-4 in games which he's started.

 

DiceK can definitely replicate those numbers, I mean those aren't exactly eye popping numbers. All you need is a .500 pitcher with a 4.50 ERA from your #5 pitcher. That's about what you should expect from DiceK.