So how about Daniel Nava?

[Bellhorn04]

He's small. He has no power. He has a weak arm and no speed. He doesn't have major league tools. Without those tools' date=' he will have to get on base at a much higher rate than other OFers to stick in the majors. Those other OFers who you refer to in the 600's and lower who are rosters -- almost all of them will not be in the majors in 3 years if they don't pick up their game. The ones who stick in the majors will have some other asset, e.g, they are either defensive whizzes or they have good speed and can steal a base, etc.[/quote']

 

But unless the overall level of hitting talent somehow rises, in 3 years there will still be a lot of starting outfielders with stiff-level OPS's-only some names will have changed.

[Dojji]

He has no major league skills.

 

He has the skills to hit for average and get on base. If those aren't "major league skills" in your book, you need to get a new book.

 

Plenty of guys make their bread in the big leagues by being able to get on base and hit for average. Even more than a few corner OF.

[a700hitter]

He has the skills to hit for average and get on base. If those aren't "major league skills" in your book, you need to get a new book.

 

Plenty of guys make their bread in the big leagues by being able to get on base and hit for average. Even more than a few corner OF.

He will have to do that exceptionally and consistently well above average to make up for the lack of his other skills. Hitters go into slumps. Speed and fielding don't slump. On your bench, a guy with a good OBP who can't run, throw or field is not useful, because he may slump just when you need him. If he had some serious HR power, that would help him, but he doesn't. OBP is not enough to keep him here, unless it is significantly above average.

[redsoxrules]

He will have to do that exceptionally and consistently well above average to make up for the lack of his other skills. Hitters go into slumps. Speed and fielding don't slump. On your bench' date=' a guy with a good OBP who can't run, throw or field is not useful, because he may slump just when you need him. If he had some serious HR power, that would help him, but he doesn't. OBP is not enough to keep him here, unless it is significantly above average.[/quote']

 

Carl Crawford slumped last year

[Bellhorn04]

Carl Crawford slumped last year

 

You have a point.

[a700hitter]

Carl Crawford slumped last year

He got slower?

[a700hitter]

You have a point.

No, he doesn't.

[redsoxrules]

He got slower?

 

You said speed doesn't slump .

 

Carl Crawford sucked last year.

 

He didn't lose a step

[a700hitter]

You said speed doesn't slump .

 

Carl Crawford sucked last year.

 

He didn't lose a step

His tools were still there. In a bench player, you want a guy who can go out without much notice and competently handle a position and perform with major league skill, i.e. run, field and throw like a major leaguer. You don't expect that they will come off your bench and OPS at .900. They are meant to plug a hole until the regular returns. Anything they give you with the bat is gravy. Nava doesn't have those skills.

 

The saying that speed doesn't slump goes back at least 70 years to Branch Rickey and maybe earlier. I am surprised that you don't understand what that means.

[Bellhorn04]

'Speed doesn't slump' is kind of a simplistic statement, isn't it? Crawford had 18 steals last year, the lowest total of his career, partially because he wasn't getting on base as much, partially because when he did get on base he was reluctant to go for some reason. His speed was not as much of an asset to us as expected.

[a700hitter]

'Speed doesn't slump' is kind of a simplistic statement' date=' isn't it? Crawford had 18 steals last year, the lowest total of his career, partially because he wasn't getting on base as much, partially because when he did get on base he was reluctant to go for some reason. His speed was not as much of an asset to us as expected.[/quote']You don't understand the statement.

[Bellhorn04]

You don't understand the statement.

 

Here's one of the things you said:

 

On your bench, a guy with a good OBP who can't run, throw or field is not useful, because he may slump just when you need him.

 

Sean Casey, 2008. He had over 200 plate appearances. He didn't hit a home run, he was slow, not a great fielder, but he had a high OBP. He refutes your statement.

[a700hitter]

Here's one of the things you said:

 

On your bench, a guy with a good OBP who can't run, throw or field is not useful, because he may slump just when you need him.

 

Sean Casey, 2008. He had over 200 plate appearances. He didn't hit a home run, he was slow, not a great fielder, but he had a high OBP. He refutes your statement.

No, it doesn't. It's hard to find a backup first baseman or catcher with speed. It's not a skill that is critical to a first baseman. It is critical to an OFer, and Nava is an OFer. Casey was a very good fielding first baseman throughout his career.

[Dojji]

Why is speed any more critical to a corner outfielder than it is to a first basemen? We've had some pretty plodding corner OF's over the years, Manny among them.

[a700hitter]

Why is speed any more critical to a corner outfielder than it is to a first basemen? We've had some pretty plodding corner OF's over the years' date=' Manny among them.[/quote']And Manny was able to play because he hit like a beast. Bench players don't hit like that. If they did, they wouldn't be on the bench. You want you bench OFers to be able to play 2 or all 3 OF positions. You want them to be good fielders and cover some ground. There's not much of a market for back up OFers who plod.

[User Name]

Why is speed any more critical to a corner outfielder than it is to a first basemen? We've had some pretty plodding corner OF's over the years' date=' Manny among them.[/quote']

 

Did you seriously just try to use Manny Ramirez to justify Nava's defensive problems and lack of speed? Please tell me you didn't, because if you did, you are delusional.

[Dojji]

Well it looks like Nava's luck has started to normalize. He's down to a pretty normal .310 BABIP (by comparison, Cody Ross's BABIP is .319) and his AVG has dipped to a much more sustainable .280 His numbers on the whole look a great deal more genuine right now. And the thing that stands out right now is that his OBP has held pretty solid throughout the "slump." And both of his ISO numbers (Iso slugging, Iso discipline) remain solid despite the dipping average.

 

Highlight right now for Nava is his hitting discipline. Any time a hitter is walking once for every strikeout you have yourself a disciplined hitter.

 

And am I the only one who thinks he handled the leadoff role pretty well? 1 for 4 with a walk and an XBH is pretty much his career line last night.

 

Point to ponder about Nava's run so far with the Red Sox. Over the 19-20 games he's played he's hit far better with men on base (.333 AVG, 1.058 OPS) than he has with the bases empty (.226 AVG, .783 OPS)

 

He takes most of his walks (all but two) with the bases empty or a man on first (9 of his 14 walks with the bases clear, another 3 with only a runner on first). Which is exactly the best time to take a walk.

 

He gets most of his XBH with men on base (.630 SLG)

 

He has 4 XBH in 10 at bats with a runner at third base.

 

He has 2 XBH in 5 total at bats with 2 outs and a runner at third base.

 

None of it means a lot, but it adds up to something interesting. This cat seems to have the right touch as a situational hitter, which is why he shows up in the clutch hitter category so often. It's clear that he's taking a different approach in different situations and for the most part achieving that objective. Lucky Nava might be, but he's showing signs of being a smart hitter, and one that can be cool in the clutch too.

 

Just thought that was worth posting when I saw it.

[a700hitter]

Well it looks like Nava's luck has started to normalize. He's down to a pretty normal .310 BABIP (by comparison, Cody Ross's BABIP is .319) and his AVG has dipped to a much more sustainable .280 His numbers on the whole look a great deal more genuine right now. And the thing that stands out right now is that his OBP has held pretty solid throughout the "slump." And both of his ISO numbers (Iso slugging, Iso discipline) remain solid despite the dipping average.

 

Highlight right now for Nava is his hitting discipline. Any time a hitter is walking once for every strikeout you have yourself a disciplined hitter.

 

And am I the only one who thinks he handled the leadoff role pretty well? 1 for 4 with a walk and an XBH is pretty much his career line last night.

 

Point to ponder about Nava's run so far with the Red Sox. Over the 19-20 games he's played he's hit far better with men on base (.333 AVG, 1.058 OPS) than he has with the bases empty (.226 AVG, .783 OPS)

He takes most of his walks (all but two) with the bases empty or a man on first (9 of his 14 walks with the bases clear, another 3 with only a runner on first). Which is exactly the best time to take a walk.

 

He gets most of his XBH with men on base (.630 SLG)

 

He has 4 XBH in 10 at bats with a runner at third base.

 

He has 2 XBH in 5 total at bats with 2 outs and a runner at third base.

 

None of it means a lot, but it adds up to something interesting. This cat seems to have the right touch as a situational hitter, which is why he shows up in the clutch hitter category so often. Thought that was worth posting when I saw it.

He hasn't hurt us yet, which is all you hope for with a minor league fill in. He's been a plus up to this point. I am most impressed with his improvement in the field. With his average starting to dip, he needs to be at least major league average in the field to stick around. I think he has brought some spark and fight to the team. Despite the injuries and s***** stretches of pitching, this team has demonstrated heart-- something that was missing in 2011.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wait, so he got white hot and is now cooling off considerably? Where have we seen this before?

[Dojji]

Wait' date=' so he got white hot and is now cooling off considerably? Where have we seen this before?[/quote']

 

Kevin Youkilis in 07 springs to mind. He was insane in May and June and then kinda held it together with a spurt or two here and there the rest of the year -- then took up his tear again in the postseason.

[jacksonianmarch]

So now Daniel Nava is Kevin Youkilis. I see.....

[jacksonianmarch]

He was 9 for his first 19. Since then, he is 7 for 39. Youk was hot for 2 months. Nava was hot for a week.

[MANNYHOF24]

Kevin Youkilis in 07 springs to mind. He was insane in May and June and then kinda held it together with a spurt or two here and there the rest of the year -- then took up his tear again in the postseason.

 

Dude....Dude....DUUDDDE..

 

Kevin Youkilis in his prime was an MVP talent. Daniel Nava does not have the talent to sustain a successful major leauge career. He is not going to be on this team if our outfield ever gets healthy. He is way behind Ellsbury, Crawford, Ross, Sweeney and maybe even MacDonald.

[Dojji]

I'm just trying to break up the cynical narrative Jacko was trying to create.

 

The fact is that Nava does have the talent. Especially on a team like the Red Sox that plays in a park that rewards line drive hitters. Fenway is perfect for Nava. It's dimensions play perfectly to his tendencies.

 

And the kind of disciplined line drive style hitter he is right now is the kind of hitter Youk was in 07, which is why I used that year as my analogy. There's a lot of similarities between Nava this year and Youk that year. Obviously Nava doesn't have quite that level of power, but it's the same approach for the most part.

[jacksonianmarch]

You are DULL!

[Dojji]

Great response. Really.

 

BTW I *love* that it was Nava with the hit that put us over .500

[jacksonianmarch]

I am just busting your chops, simmer down. Nava had a great week. Since then, he's been below replacement value. It's eerily similar to something he did a couple years ago, imagine that. The holes in his swing render him a poor regular. The holes in his D make him a poor 4th OFer. Overall, he doesnt have a long term place on the club and I expect a DFA once Ross is back

[VA Sox Fan]

His bases clearing 2B resulting in 3 runs was awesome last night as well as clutch! Boy has heart. Can only hope it lasts.

[SoxSport]

Nava knows the strike zone. He has a natural batting eye. It's tough to teach that. The earmark of a good hitter. Last night, his first at bat was poor. But the rest of his at bats were good. His patience paid off with the key hit of the game.

 

The other thing is he looks stronger and bulkier than when I saw him two years ago in Pawtucket. This could translate into more power. Yaz did the same thing after a few seasons, and increased his power output--at the expense of his BA.

[jung]

Boy I never thought I would see Nava and Yaz in the same sentence.

 

I cannot help but think that what we are really seeing here is the difference between a guy that does supplement what he does not have physically with a truly cerebral approach and comparing that to the run of the mill pro baseball player that relies mainly on an abundance of physical ability all day long. I think we have grown so used to the latter that we find it hard to even recognize the former when we see it.

 

If we want to use Nava's game winning hit against Verlander last night as the example, we have to start with the understanding that the Verlander we saw last night was about as vulnerable a Verlander as you are going to see. So you have to start with that.

 

Nava went to the plate last night content in the knowledge that a walk scored a run and he allowed that understanding to drive his plate appearance. He took good hacks at pitches that he could handle and fouled off pitches he could not and most importantly worked the count to 3-1. At 3-1. he took a terrific hack and almost got Verlander there.

 

Verlander was vulnerable last night for two reasons. First and foremost, he threw more absolutely horrible curve balls in one outing than I have ever seen him throw...not just bad but awful curve balls starting with the curve he threw Youk in Youk's first at bat. Second Verlander was a bit up in the zone with a number of his FB's last night even though he could summon velo when he wanted as is his MO. Both came back to haunt him against Nava.

 

Verlander is the one pitcher in baseball that on a given night could have and might have thrown Nava a breaking ball for that last pitch in which case Nava would have been an out. He could not throw it with any confidence last night so that option was out. As it was he threw the FB to Nava who was rightfully sitting dead red. Not only did he throw the FB to Nava but he threw it right into Nava's wheelhouse, the one place where Nava could handle 99 heat even expecting it. Had he thrown it even an inch or two further down in the zone, Nava would likely have missed it or ground it someplace even though again Nava was expecting heat and sitting dead red.

 

The key for Nava is that he went to the plate content with an RBI walk if that is what was offered to him and he allowed that to govern everything else he did. Most of our ding-a-lings would have never worked the count to 3-1 in the first place, having hacked at something long before then. You just about have to throw four in the first row to walk Agons these days and Aviles is pretty quick to swing as well. though both are injured now, Ross is a quick swinger and at least last year CC was pretty quick to swing as well.

 

So I continue to think Nava puts himself in positions to succeed and then has enough faith in what he does to bring himself to a high degree of preparedness to succeed at that point. Verlander could have thrown that FB somewhere else or could have throw a different pitch. However Nava worked the count to a place where Verlander was forced to throw the FB and threw it right where Nava needed it to be.