So how about Daniel Nava?

[User Name]

Personally I'm finding it a little comical how much abuse Nava is taking in this thread. Is this all a backlash against Dojji or something? I understand that Nava's potential is limited but his numbers are pretty respectable. He had a .926 OPS at Pawtucket and his major league line now stands at .264/.383/.408. Also he's got 37 RBI in 201 major league AB's' date=' which translates to a 100 RBI season based on about 550 AB's.[/quote']

 

Which is a good example of why translating SSS into full seasons is not very useful. He's unlikely to sustain such a level of production.

[Emmz]

Personally I'm finding it a little comical how much abuse Nava is taking in this thread. Is this all a backlash against Dojji or something? I understand that Nava's potential is limited but his numbers are pretty respectable. He had a .926 OPS at Pawtucket and his major league line now stands at .264/.383/.408. Also he's got 37 RBI in 201 major league AB's' date=' which translates to a 100 RBI season based on about 550 AB's.[/quote']

 

Well that's the point, he doesn't really have any potential at the major league level. Backup outfielder is all he'll ever be, whether you agree or not that he "stinks" or not doesn't really factor in, because it's a subjective term.

[jung]

I just remembered in my comment about injury that Ross has a foot injury. But he just sustained that so I am not sure anybody knows right now when he will be back at this point.

[Bellhorn04]

Well that's the point' date=' he doesn't really have any potential at the major league level. Backup outfielder is all he'll ever be, whether you agree or not that he "stinks" or not doesn't really factor in, because it's a subjective term.[/quote']

 

Well, I'm a numbers person, and Nava's major league numbers are well above average, it's as simple as that. Yes the sample is small, but that fact doesn't indicate that he can't sustain something like an .800 OPS. If somebody can see something in his actual numbers that says otherwise, let's hear it.

[User Name]

Well' date=' I'm a numbers person, and Nava's major league numbers are well above average, it's as simple as that. Yes the sample is small, but that fact doesn't indicate that he can't sustain something like an .800 OPS. If somebody can see something in his actual numbers that says otherwise, let's hear it.[/quote']

 

Crazy high .375 BABIP, .600 SLG and 23.5 LD% (both of which are significantly higher than his MiLB number) all point to a significant regression in numbers. Not moderate, significant.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Crazy high .375 BABIP' date=' .600 SLG and 23.5 LD% (both of which are significantly higher than his MiLB number) all point to a significant regression in numbers. Not moderate, significant.[/quote']

 

He's also got a career .414 OBP in the minors, has consistently had an isolated OBP of around .095-.100 which is extremely high. Even in his MLB time in 2010, his OBP was .109 points higher than his average.

 

Also, he has a career slugging% of .498 in the minors. It's mostly gap power, which plays well at Fenway given the awkward dimensions and the monster in LF.

 

I'm not saying he's going to be a 1.091 OPS guy this year like he has thus far. Far from it. But I also don't think he will regress into a sub .735 OPS guy, which is what it would take to make him a below average offensive LF in the AL.

[User Name]

He's also got a career .414 OBP in the minors, has consistently had an isolated OBP of around .095-.100 which is extremely high. Even in his MLB time in 2010, his OBP was .109 points higher than his average.

 

Also, he has a career slugging% of .498 in the minors. It's mostly gap power, which plays well at Fenway given the awkward dimensions and the monster in LF.

 

I'm not saying he's going to be a 1.091 OPS guy this year like he has thus far. Far from it. But I also don't think he will regress into a sub .735 OPS guy, which is what it would take to make him a below average offensive LF in the AL.

 

The eye is real. No one is disputing that, but remember that not only does he not have a lot of power, but completely in contrary to what you say, gap power for a switchie who will mostly bat lefty does not translate well into Fenway unless the hitter is an oppo power guy.

 

As for the rest of your point, a sub-.735 OPS he may not become. He may also not become a "below-average by positional standards" hitter (even though i doubt the AL average OPS for LFers is .735, but i digress). But his lack of skills other than OBP without speed and middling defense don't make him a starting option on a contending team, but rather a good backup.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The eye is real. No one is disputing that, but remember that not only does he not have a lot of power, but completely in contrary to what you say, gap power for a switchie who will mostly bat lefty does not translate well into Fenway unless the hitter is an oppo power guy.

 

As for the rest of your point, a sub-.735 OPS he may not become. He may also not become a "below-average by positional standards" hitter (even though i doubt the AL average OPS for LFers is .735, but i digress). But his lack of skills other than OBP without speed and middling defense don't make him a starting option on a contending team, but rather a good backup.

 

We are in agreement that he is not a starter, but a backup. To be clear, I wasn't trying to dispute that fact. I was just saying he's not a crappy player. He's a league average, or slightly better than league average LF.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/83

 

Here are the stats, separated by team, for production from LF in 2012. The league average AL LF is hitting .243/.319/.416 right now. Last year, the league average AL LF hit .250/.310/.392 for a whopping .702 OPS. Now - These numbers are for all players who played LF, and include back ups as well as regulars (however, you would expect the ratio of playing time that a backup LF gets compared to a starting LF to be small enough that it wouldn't manipulate the data by a huge margin. Not nearly enough to bump it to a .800+).

 

If you look at qualified LF with 100 PA as a LF, the median OPS is .717, ranging from .535 to 1.015. They don't display the average of the candidates at the bottom, and I really don't feel like calculating it myself, so the median is the best you're going to get out of me tonight.

 

It's strange, and it's something I noticed during my fantasy baseball draft. Outfield has really gone from a position that seemed to have a magnitude of depth to a very shallow position.

[Spitball]

Well that's the point' date=' he doesn't really have any potential at the major league level. Backup outfielder is all he'll ever be, whether you agree or not that he "stinks" or not doesn't really factor in, because it's a subjective term.[/quote']

 

I agree. Nava has been good in limited play, but he is not a potential star nor even starting player on a good team.

 

BTW Emmz, I love your avatar. I am a huge fan of It is Always Sunny in Philadelphia, and Sweet Dee is my favorite character on the show.

[a700hitter]

Well' date=' I'm a numbers person, and Nava's major league numbers are well above average, it's as simple as that. Yes the sample is small, but that fact doesn't indicate that he can't sustain something like an .800 OPS. If somebody can see something in his actual numbers that says otherwise, let's hear it.[/quote']Most baseball fans are numbers people, but numbers are rarely a complete picture, and they are not very reliable when we are talking about 14 games. In 2010, he also started like a house of fire, but then came back to earth with a crash and he didn't sniff the big leagues for more than a year. He's giving it his best shot, as this is likely his final chance. He will have to maintain well-above average offensive stats to stick in the bigs. If he regresses to stats of an average replacement player, he will be banished to the bush leagues as he has no other major league tools to keep him here. He has little power, average speed, below average throwing arm and he is at best an average fielder. If he wants to stick, hell have to continue an OBP of .375 or above.

[SoxSport]

The thing that hurts Nava is he is a 29yo trying to break into the big leagues. If he was 22, everybody would be raving about his hitting.

 

As for his size, he's listed as 5' 11", 200lbs. Quite a bit bigger than Pedey.

 

Yaz, by the way, was listed as 5' 11", 175 lbs. Size clearly doesn't matter.

[SoxFanForsyth]

 

Does that mean you agree?

[jung]

I think what folks either don't know or have forgotten is that Nava went on one hell of a Pawtucket hot streak just as the Sox were growing desperate for more help in the outfield. So it really took all of his seasoning, his baseball smarts, his very admirable play AND a monster hot streak just as the Sox needed outfield help to get him here.

 

So all the stuff I admire in him and have discussed here, was not enough to get it done. He had to get white hot on top of that. I suspect that once he steps down off of that podium and goes back to being a very smart, very seasoned player that is a joy to watch, he will have a very difficult time sticking at least past the time when the Sox have a reasonable stable of OF guys.

 

So do I think he will stick over d-mac? Yes I would be very disappointed if the Sox sent Nava down for d-mac. However d-mac probably describes Nava own kind of Mendoza line. Players better than d-mac as they come back to the Sox probably each hold the possibility of seeing Nava go back down. d-mac or less likely will not shoehorn Nava off this team. Putting d-mac aside for a bit, it might boil down to something like keeping Byrd here or the Podster here or Nava. I would take Nava over Pods at this point and might even take him over Byrd.

[jung]

Man I don't think I remember Yaz looking like anything like 175 in his glory years. Looked much bigger than that to me. I don't think what is listed really matters with any of these guys. I think what is listed is their own personal PR more often than not.

[SoxSport]

Man I don't think I remember Yaz looking like anything like 175 in his glory years. Looked much bigger than that to me. I don't think what is listed really matters with any of these guys. I think what is listed is their own personal PR more often than not.

 

 

Yaz was pretty slim when he first came up. I don't know if he was 175. He gained some weight after a few years, started hitting lots of HRs, but his BA dropped after the great '67 triple crown year. He was still slim in '67, but gained weight the following year. His average dropped as he hit more HRs. In his later years, he controlled his weight pretty good--I would guess around 185-190.

 

As I've said, Nava reminds me of him when he bats left handed. He has the same line-drive swing. Yaz was a helluva line drive hitter when he first game up. Great hitter. That '67 year was as good a year as I've seen anybody have. He was an awesome player that year.

[Spitball]

Man I don't think I remember Yaz looking like anything like 175 in his glory years. Looked much bigger than that to me. I don't think what is listed really matters with any of these guys. I think what is listed is their own personal PR more often than not.

 

I think Yaz eventually bulked up to the 180s. As for Nava, I remember seeing him at the Sox' minor league complex in Fort Myers last year and being surprised at how small he appeared.

[seabeachfred]

Broken ribs and a shoulder subluxation? Those are real-deal injuries caused by impact plays' date=' not boo-boos. Be realistic, it's not a "toughen up" problem.[/quote']

 

It shouldn't take seven months for a person to heal from rib injuries, and the shoulder injury should have pretty much healed by now---or at least deep in the process of healing. While much of what I said was done in frustration at all the damn injuries this team seem to suffer year after year, Ellsbury did himself no good hanging out in Arizona in 2010 instead of rehabbing in Boston under the watchful eye of some real physical thereapists and conditioning experts (not our medical staff btw). Ells is one of my favorite players on the Sox but I still think he is too injury prone, too much of a slow healer and I do question his toughness. I want him to double down on his rehabbing and get his ass back in the lineup sooner than later.

[a700hitter]

This is the second year out of three that Ellsbury has missed considerable playing time because of injuries. Yes, I've broken my ribs, three of them, but it didn't take me seven months and then some to get back into training. As for the one this year no one should be laid up that long because some infielder fell on you. The guy is a slow healer and he is very very injury prone--and I say that as one who is a big fan of Jacoby's and hope he is resigned. But the facts bear it out; he's injury prone and a very very slow healer.

 

He needs to toughen up.

Fred, you have done a lot of coaching. While you were on your self-imposed exile, I made the assertion that Ellsbury was responsible for getting injured because his slide was fundamentally flawed. We were taught that when you go into the bag to take out a fielder that you go in feet first on your backside. In those drills they taught us to throw our hands up so they didn't get caught under our body or the fielders body. With our hands up like that we could fend off a knee or other body part coming toward our face. Ells went in on his side and stomach with his arm extended behind him and his palm flat to the ground. He created the perfect situation for his shoulder to pop out or to sprain or break a wrist. They used to teach us to grab two handfuls of dirt and hold them in our fists to avoid having our hand on the ground with an open palm. Am I wrong about this? It is my contention that had his slide had been fundamentally sound, he never would have sustained this injury.

[mvp 78]

Most baseball fans are numbers people' date=' but numbers are rarely a complete picture, and they are not very reliable when we are talking about 14 games. In 2010, he also started like a house of fire, but then came back to earth with a crash and he didn't sniff the big leagues for more than a year. He's giving it his best shot, as this is likely his final chance. He will have to maintain well-above average offensive stats to stick in the bigs. If he regresses to stats of an average replacement player, he will be banished to the bush leagues as he has no other major league tools to keep him here. He has little power, average speed, below average throwing arm and he is at best an average fielder. If he wants to stick, hell have to continue an OBP of .375 or above.[/quote']

 

8 extra base hits in first 36 ABs of 2010

8 extra base hits in final 125 ABs of 2010

 

A singles hitter with no speed after his early power surge. Hoping that's not the case this time around, but we'll see. At best, he's a 4th OF for the Astros.

[mvp 78]

I think Yaz eventually bulked up to the 180s. As for Nava' date=' I remember seeing him at the Sox' minor league complex in Fort Myers last year and being surprised at how small he appeared.[/quote']

 

Saw him up close at the Xmas at Fenway last year, he's not 200lbs or 5'11". No way.

[seabeachfred]

Fred' date=' you have done a lot of coaching. While you were on your self-imposed exile, I made the assertion that Ellsbury was responsible for getting injured because his slide was fundamentally flawed. We were taught that when you go into the bag to take out a fielder that you go in feet first on your backside. In those drills they taught us to throw our hands up so they didn't get caught under our body or the fielders body. With our hands up like that we could fend off a knee or other body part coming toward our face. Ells went in on his side and stomach with his arm extended behind him and his palm flat to the ground. He created the perfect situation for his shoulder to pop out or to sprain or break a wrist. They used to teach us to grab two handfuls of dirt and hold them in our fists to avoid having our hand on the ground with an open palm. Am I wrong about this? It is my contention that had his slide had been fundamentally sound, he never would have sustained this injury.[/quote']

 

Are you wrong??????? You couldn't be any more right if you tried. My coaches t aught me that method and from what I know all the coaches I know teach exactly the same way. You hands are used as a defensive barrier to ward off a knee, elbow or leg coming down on you from an infielder you were supposed to take out of the play. Hell I used to teach my boys to be certain to have dirt in their hands BEFORE they took off in order to protect them from finger or hand injuries. Thinking back to what you said 700, I remember now seeing that half ass slide of Jacoby where he slid on his side and was totally vulnerable to an accident. You jogged my memory and thanks. Still my contention is that he is too damn brittle for his own good. I could live with that if he was a fast healer but the guy doesn't seem to able to mend except in slow motion. He needs to do things right, and I insist he needs to toughen up as well. Thanks for the reminder 700.

[mvp 78]

But BV is so much better at teaching fundamentals than Francona, how'd this happen?

 

[User Name]

It shouldn't take seven months for a person to heal from rib injuries' date=' and the shoulder injury should have pretty much healed by now---or at least deep in the process of healing. While much of what I said was done in frustration at all the damn injuries this team seem to suffer year after year, Ellsbury did himself no good hanging out in Arizona in 2010 instead of rehabbing in Boston under the watchful eye of some real physical thereapists and conditioning experts (not our medical staff btw). Ells is one of my favorite players on the Sox but I still think he is too injury prone, too much of a slow healer and I do question his toughness. I want him to double down on his rehabbing and get his ass back in the lineup sooner than later.[/quote']

 

You mean 2010 when the Red Sox blatantly misdiagnosed his condition? What a pussy! He should've self-diagnosed and told them the ribs were broken....oh wait, he did that and they screwed him up!

 

Also, shoulder subluxations are unpredictable, because the extent of the damage is hard to diagnose. You're no doctor, and neither am i, so assuring he "should" be in a specific state of the healing process is guesswork at best.

 

Seriously Fred, you don't really have a foot to stand on.

[jung]

Well this whole topic of good fundamental baseball is what makes guys like Nava such a pleasure to watch and what makes these pampered stars in part so difficult to watch.

 

Even though Ells is still waiting for his first big monster payday, he is still at this point a star that couches probably can't talk to about anything anymore including how he slides.

 

Look at the plate appearances these guys make. They go up there make embarrassingly bad plate appearances....inexcusably bad....beyond stupid. Yet you get the impression that if they went back to the bench and the hitting coach said something like "geez you might think about seeing a few more pitches so that you get more of an opportunity to hit something you really like" these guys would look at him like he had four heads!

 

What really irritates the hell out of me is that on some occasions with some players you get the feeling that their frustration that the game seems to turn on them or at least will not cooperate and bend to their will turns into a form of pouting and the things they do poorly they start doing even worse! Its like "f*** the world I want to get off".....until pay day rolls around. Nobody is sending the checks back I would guess.

[a700hitter]

Saw him up close at the Xmas at Fenway last year' date=' he's not 200lbs or 5'11". No way.[/quote']You saw Nava or Yaz. I met Yaz right after he retired. Hewas just a hair under 6 feet and his top playing weight was around 185-- maybe one year. He was probably 175 most of the time. Nava is nowhere near 6 feet tall, probably tops out at 5'9".

[mvp 78]

You saw Nava or Yaz. I met Yaz right after he retired. Hewas just a hair under 6 feet and his top playing weight was around 185-- maybe one year. He was probably 175 most of the time. Nava is nowhere near 6 feet tall' date=' probably tops out at 5'9".[/quote']

 

Nava, never seen Yaz in person.

[example1]

This is the second year out of three that Ellsbury has missed considerable playing time because of injuries. Yes, I've broken my ribs, three of them, but it didn't take me seven months and then some to get back into training. As for the one this year no one should be laid up that long because some infielder fell on you. The guy is a slow healer and he is very very injury prone--and I say that as one who is a big fan of Jacoby's and hope he is resigned. But the facts bear it out; he's injury prone and a very very slow healer.

 

He needs to toughen up.

 

1) Did you actually see the guy fall on his shoulder? Having watched it, I immediately cringed and assumed it was a really bad injury. The original assumption was a few months, and that's what it looks like it will be. Why is that anything warranting discussions about him being "soft"?

 

2) Ellsbury is one season away from free agency. If there is any time in his life when he would be on the field, it would be this season. This is a guy who works out constantly and is a workout buff. He would be on the field if he could be. It could make the difference of tens of millions of dollars about 500 days from now.

 

Only a complete cynic (like yourself) could have so many layers of skepticism heaped upon someone when all of the motivating factors paint a different picture.

[Bellhorn04]

8 extra base hits in first 36 ABs of 2010

8 extra base hits in final 125 ABs of 2010

 

A singles hitter with no speed after his early power surge. Hoping that's not the case this time around, but we'll see. At best, he's a 4th OF for the Astros.

 

Yes, I think I may have gotten a little too worked up about Nava and his numbers yesterday. Mea culpa.

[a700hitter]

But BV is so much better at teaching fundamentals than Francona, how'd this happen?

 

Teaching fundamentals is one thing. The player has to put it into practice. Bobby V tells the story that he had dinner with the Twins second baseman from Japan. He knew him from his managing days in Japan. He warned him about the way he took the throw at second base, telling him that if he took the throw that way in the US he would get his leg broken. According to Bobby V, the guy gave him that "yeah right" look, and in the first week of the season a base runner took him out and broke his leg. He'll never again take a throw like that, but he had to learn the hard way. I doubt that we will ever see that kind of slide from Ellsbury.

[mvp 78]

Teaching fundamentals is one thing. The player has to put it into practice. Bobby V tells the story that he had dinner with the Twins second baseman from Japan. He knew him from his managing days in Japan. He warned him about the way he took the throw at second base' date=' telling him that if he took the throw that way in the US he would get his leg broken. According to Bobby V, the guy gave him that "yeah right" look, and in the first week of the season a base runner took him out and broke his leg. He'll never again take a throw like that, but he had to learn the hard way. I doubt that we will ever see that kind of slide from Ellsbury.[/quote']

 

So the manager is useless? Fundamentals in ST are wasted time if players only learn by injuring themselves/getting it wrong?