How to Fix This Team?

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is wishful thinking, IMO.

 

Here's the most likely rotation for next year. Lester, Beckett, Lackey (who is effective post-TJ), Doubront, Bard. I fear the best days of Buchholz career are behind him. He looks defeated. However, they have those 6 options on the table right now. I think Doubront and Bard hit their bumps in the road this year, and they stick with them moving forward because they will eventually be both capable and cheap. I seriously doubt they go big/long on a FA pitcher with the current bad contracts they are trying to get some value out of (Lackey, Crawford, and....at this point.....Gonzalez).

 

See I disagree. This team likely isn't going to be making a PS push as currently constructed. And the problem is that if they don't go out and get some solid pitching, they aren't going to be in the race for a while. Now, if you want to argue that going about it via FA isn't the right way to go, fine, and I can agree with that. But I don't see this ownership seeing 3 consecutive years of missing the PS, watching the stands go empty in an extra innings game, and not make a splash to try to get these fans back.

[TutGadol]

Why are you so hot on letting Papi go? For what he did for us, earning too less for most of his career, and still being very productive, I'll let him stay even if he's a little overpayed.

[ORS]

See I disagree. This team likely isn't going to be making a PS push as currently constructed. And the problem is that if they don't go out and get some solid pitching' date=' they aren't going to be in the race for a while. Now, if you want to argue that going about it via FA isn't the right way to go, fine, and I can agree with that. But I don't see this ownership seeing 3 consecutive years of missing the PS, watching the stands go empty in an extra innings game, and not make a splash to try to get these fans back.[/quote']

Their last splash is looking a whole lot like a belly flop. In my opinion, it is very naive to think they are going to add a $20M arm to the starting rotation, especially when the risk in terms of contract length will be significant, when there is a combination of expsensive talent they need to get production out of and cheap in-house talent available through the 2014 season.

 

Beckett is under contract at $15.75M/yr through 2014.

 

Lackey is under contract at $15.25M/yr through 2014, and there's no way they consider that sunk cost without seeing what he can do post TJ surgery.

 

Lester is under contract through 2014.

 

Buchholz is under contract through 2016.

 

Bard is under control through 2014.

 

Doubront is under control through 2017.

 

That's 6 credible options for the rotation, with a signficant amount of obligated cost under contract. The only way I can forsee them adding a $20M pitcher to the rotation is if Buchholz, Bard, and Doubront are all so bad finishing out this year that they eliminate themselves from consideration moving forward.

 

And, even if that happens, they have to consider what another massive expenditure in the rotation will do to their budget and needs to address other areas on the team, like Ellsbury's pending free agency and the need for more capable pitchers in the BP.

 

The key problem to this season, IMO, has been the massive under-performance they've gotten out of what was supposed to be a solid top-3 in the rotation. Unfortunately, that bed is made until 2014, and chucking money at another starter isn't a smart fix, not when there are other areas that require help and don't have the same commitments. They need to figure out why these guys are all so bad right now and recoup some of their considerable, and still pending, investment in these players as contributors in the immediate future.

 

With the massive commitments they have to players like Crawford, Gonzalez, and key pieces of the rotation, I think you are going to see them use their young/cheap talent wherever it fits in. Right now, they have two of those options in Doubront and Bard in the rotation. Don't expect it to change.

[d-money]

This team should be much better then it is.They have holes but the players are not performing like they should.I dont know how u fix this mess but it shouldnt be on Valentine.

[jacksonianmarch]

Their last splash is looking a whole lot like a belly flop. In my opinion, it is very naive to think they are going to add a $20M arm to the starting rotation, especially when the risk in terms of contract length will be significant, when there is a combination of expsensive talent they need to get production out of and cheap in-house talent available through the 2014 season.

 

Beckett is under contract at $15.75M/yr through 2014.

 

Lackey is under contract at $15.25M/yr through 2014, and there's no way they consider that sunk cost without seeing what he can do post TJ surgery.

 

Lester is under contract through 2014.

 

Buchholz is under contract through 2016.

 

Bard is under control through 2014.

 

Doubront is under control through 2017.

 

That's 6 credible options for the rotation, with a signficant amount of obligated cost under contract. The only way I can forsee them adding a $20M pitcher to the rotation is if Buchholz, Bard, and Doubront are all so bad finishing out this year that they eliminate themselves from consideration moving forward.

 

And, even if that happens, they have to consider what another massive expenditure in the rotation will do to their budget and needs to address other areas on the team, like Ellsbury's pending free agency and the need for more capable pitchers in the BP.

 

The key problem to this season, IMO, has been the massive under-performance they've gotten out of what was supposed to be a solid top-3 in the rotation. Unfortunately, that bed is made until 2014, and chucking money at another starter isn't a smart fix, not when there are other areas that require help and don't have the same commitments. They need to figure out why these guys are all so bad right now and recoup some of their considerable, and still pending, investment in these players as contributors in the immediate future.

 

With the massive commitments they have to players like Crawford, Gonzalez, and key pieces of the rotation, I think you are going to see them use their young/cheap talent wherever it fits in. Right now, they have two of those options in Doubront and Bard in the rotation. Don't expect it to change.

 

They are really hoping not to miss on any of their pitching prospects, because their best prospects (Ranaudo and Barnes) are so far and away better than the rest that they better not miss or run into a significant problem on the development side.

[FredLynn]

Why are you so hot on letting Papi go? For what he did for us' date=' earning too less for most of his career, and still being very productive, I'll let him stay even if he's a little overpayed.[/quote']

 

Because we cannot afford to pay him what he is worth AND obtain the necessary pitching pieces we need to become relevant again. We MUST obtain a #1 SP like Lincecum or Felix. Right now we have two functional #3 SPs and two #4s. Buchholz is likely finished. Lackey will never cut it in Boston, and DiceK will be gone next year. If we have $40M next offseason I want to see ALL of it spent on great pitching.

[Laser Show]

Because we cannot afford to pay him what he is worth AND obtain the necessary pitching pieces we need to become relevant again. We MUST obtain a #1 SP like Lincecum or Felix. Right now we have two functional #3 SPs and two #4s. Buchholz is likely finished. Lackey will never cut it in Boston' date=' and DiceK will be gone next year. If we have $40M next offseason I want to see ALL of it spent on great pitching.[/quote']

 

That's pretty much it. We need pitching more than anything, and we have hitting to spare if people can stay healthy. Ortiz, while loved, is a luxury. If we can replace him with a frontline starter, we have to do it.

[Bellhorn04]

This is the first time I've said this, but if they could work out a trade for Beckett, preferably with an NL team, and get back a really good prospect or two, maybe they should do it. It would free up even more payroll room to go after an ace-type.

 

I've always defended Beckett but there does seem to be a cloud surrounding the guy since last September.

[Brennan]

Horse hockey! The main problem child is Beckett. He should have been made an example of. Lester and Buchholtz may have fallen in line. They could have dumped Youk but chose not to. This FO also should have brougtht in an outsider as GM instead of the fool Cherrington.

 

 

I agree with Dojji alot but I have to agree with you about Beckett, he's like the punk kid that won't allow good kids in the tree house. I knew guys with his attitude in school and let's just say we didn't see eye to eye.

[Brennan]

That's pretty much it. We need pitching more than anything' date=' and we have hitting to spare if people can stay healthy. Ortiz, while loved, is a luxury. If we can replace him with a frontline starter, we have to do it.[/quote']

 

 

 

Great point.

[SoxSport]

Most informed fans think the main problem is pitching. Heck, they've been near the bottom the last few years in pitching, while being near the top in hitting. Anybody can read the stats. Right now, they are missing some key hitters, so that makes the pitching even more vulnerable.

 

So the question is how to fix the pitching? I've said that I'm suspect of the way the Red Sox management handles pitching. I don't think it's the pitching coach--they keep changing them with no effect. So here's what I think:

 

First, they have not developed enough pitching in their farm syatem. That tells me the management does not give sufficient priority to pitching--they aren't drafting enough pitchers.

 

Second, they tend to baby their starters--misusing pitch counting. 100 pitches and out winning or losing.

That often means 5-6 innings in a quality start--which puts ridiculous pressure on the bullpen. Last year, Tito used 4 bullpen guys to finish an 8-2 blowout!

 

Third, the bullpen is grossly overused. By that I mean, too many appearances and too few innings per appearance. Relievers almost never pitch more than 1-2 innings. That means using 3-4 relievers almost every game. Since bullpen heatup is half the effort for a reliever, that puts tremendous strain on them.

It's no wonder a guy is sharp for a couple of outings, and then goes sour on the 3rd one. They aren't machines.

 

Fourth, There is too sharp a distinction between starters and relievers. When a starter comes back from injury, he should spend some time in the bullpen to sharpen up, before he's thrown out there to start.

Buchholz is a classic example--the kid clearly wasn't ready to start this year. He belonged in the bullpen--and does right now until he shows he is sharp enough to start again. (This assumes he is healthy, for which there is some doubt.)Conversely, when a reliever looks sharp a couple of times (like Tazawa did when he came up), he ought to be given a start. That's the way it was done for 100 years in baseball before the bean counters --I mean pitch counters-- took over.

 

What I'm saying is, aside from not drafting enough pitching and signing free agent pitchers poorly, the management has a problem with the way pitchers are handled. I thought maybe Valentine would change things some vs Tito, but he really hasn't. Which tells me the problem goes higher.

[SoxSport]

On Lackey, I have a hunch he will come back strong post Tommy John--just in time to be a free agent his 2nd year. That this guy pitched for two years with a bad elbow may tell you something about the way the Red Sox handle (or mishandle) pitchers.

[jung]

Well it is funny how we have come full circle on Ortiz. Those of us that wanted more pitching and thought that we should either find a way to negotiate Ortiz to numbers that gave us more money to play with or thought we should just let Ortiz go really had a hard time making any headway here during the winter and early spring. Now Ortiz has done nothing less than carry the team offensively and now we are ready to let him go for pitching.

 

I was more in favor of negotiating Ortiz to a number that left us some money to play with for pitching...maybe getting him to $18M for two years would have worked as Ortiz wanted more than one year and would likely have found $18M for two years appealing until the Sox got themselves worked up into a panic and went down the arbitration trail. I did not think there were teams that would outbid the Sox for Ortiz as there was an abundance of aging DH types out there in the league and nobody knew Ortiz would come back in the condition he is in now.

 

But there were folks that were totally ready to cash in the chips on Ortiz for more pitching and maybe they had the better idea. Not at all sure who we could get for Ortiz at this point. I would agree that any trade options that would improve the mix of players on this team would be worth considering. At this point I am not sure I would so easily accept the idea that the Sox have an abundance of offense. They have offense but when you consider the guys that are already absent or underperforming I am not sure I see an abundance of offense.

 

Do we want more pitching now because we still think this team could be post season bound? There still looks like there will be more options open when 2013 rolls around and the team will have much more money to play with at that point as well.

[Bellhorn04]

Most informed fans think the main problem is pitching. Heck, they've been near the bottom the last few years in pitching, while being near the top in hitting. Anybody can read the stats. Right now, they are missing some key hitters, so that makes the pitching even more vulnerable.

 

So the question is how to fix the pitching? I've said that I'm suspect of the way the Red Sox management handles pitching. I don't think it's the pitching coach--they keep changing them with no effect. So here's what I think:

 

First, they have not developed enough pitching in their farm syatem. That tells me the management does not give sufficient priority to pitching--they aren't drafting enough pitchers.

 

Second, they tend to baby their starters--misusing pitch counting. 100 pitches and out winning or losing.

That often means 5-6 innings in a quality start--which puts ridiculous pressure on the bullpen. Last year, Tito used 4 bullpen guys to finish an 8-2 blowout!

 

Third, the bullpen is grossly overused. By that I mean, too many appearances and too few innings per appearance. Relievers almost never pitch more than 1-2 innings. That means using 3-4 relievers almost every game. Since bullpen heatup is half the effort for a reliever, that puts tremendous strain on them.

It's no wonder a guy is sharp for a couple of outings, and then goes sour on the 3rd one. They aren't machines.

 

Fourth, There is too sharp a distinction between starters and relievers. When a starter comes back from injury, he should spend some time in the bullpen to sharpen up, before he's thrown out there to start.

Buchholz is a classic example--the kid clearly wasn't ready to start this year. He belonged in the bullpen--and does right now until he shows he is sharp enough to start again. (This assumes he is healthy, for which there is some doubt.)Conversely, when a reliever looks sharp a couple of times (like Tazawa did when he came up), he ought to be given a start. That's the way it was done for 100 years in baseball before the bean counters --I mean pitch counters-- took over.

 

What I'm saying is, aside from not drafting enough pitching and signing free agent pitchers poorly, the management has a problem with the way pitchers are handled. I thought maybe Valentine would change things some vs Tito, but he really hasn't. Which tells me the problem goes higher.

 

jung, to make your case about the handling of the pitchers I think you need to compare the Red Sox to another team who you see doing things differently and doing it right. In yesterday's game Showalter seemed to use his bullpen pretty much exactly the same as Valentine did. Who uses a lot of relievers for short stints any more than Joe Maddon does? And the teams that made it to the World Series last year kept parading guys out of the pen in a steady stream.

 

Like I say, who is doing this the right way?

[jung]

Bellhorn I did not want you to think I was ignoring your post but I think you want SoxSport commenting in this particular instance. If I am wrong I apologize and I will offer a comment but that is SoxSports post that you have copied into yours.

[jacksonianmarch]

On Lackey' date=' I have a hunch he will come back strong post Tommy John--just in time to be a free agent his 2nd year. That this guy pitched for two years with a bad elbow may tell you something about the way the Red Sox handle (or mishandle) pitchers.[/quote']

 

Lackey had a league minimum option tagged onto his contract due to his TJS. The sox have 3 more yrs of control after this one

[SoxFanForsyth]

Lackey had a league minimum option tagged onto his contract due to his TJS. The sox have 3 more yrs of control after this one

 

If they exercise the option. They still have to exercise the option.

 

Having said that, they almost certainly will. Even as bad as Lackey was, for $500k, he's a bargain.

 

Not to mention, his AAV goes down considerably. Whereas it was at $16,500,000, it will drop to $11,166,667 for the final 3 years (including the option year). That's a solid $5.33mm in AAV savings. That's huge, especially considering the new LT implications.

[Bellhorn04]

Bellhorn I did not want you to think I was ignoring your post but I think you want SoxSport commenting in this particular instance. If I am wrong I apologize and I will offer a comment but that is SoxSports post that you have copied into yours.

 

Sorry jung...guess I'm still dazed and confused from yesterday's game.

[AWLinBHM]

#1: Call the BV hire what it is, buy it out and move on. (Not gonna happen but should)

#2: Move Bard back to the BP

#3: Make Padilla a starter like he should be

#4: Trade Youk (Hate to say it. Free up $$). Middkebrooks long-term.

#5: Teach Salty how to catch again. Apparently, he has forgotten how to do so.

#6: Cook isn't gonna work.

#7: Buckholtz needs to be traded or sent down (sad)

#8: Beckett? Needs to go. (free up $$$)

#9: Lester? He'll come around

#10: Need Ellsbury to stay healthy.

[redsoxfan3]

#1: Call the BV hire what it is, buy it out and move on. (Not gonna happen but should)

#2: Move Bard back to the BP

#3: Make Padilla a starter like he should be

#4: Trade Youk (Hate to say it. Free up $$). Middkebrooks long-term.

#5: Teach Salty how to catch again. Apparently, he has forgotten how to do so.

#6: Cook isn't gonna work.

#7: Buckholtz needs to be traded or sent down (sad)

#8: Beckett? Needs to go. (free up $$$)

#9: Lester? He'll come around

#10: Need Ellsbury to stay healthy.

 

1. Bobby Valentine is fine.

2. Bard is staying in the rotation like he should. It is better in the long run.

3. There is no space available for Padilla in the rotation. When Dice-K comes back, we will have six starters.

4. I agree. I think Middlebrooks is the long term option and he is having a great start. I don't know what we could actually get in return for Youk in a trade though. His injury history is bad and he has struggled some this year.

5. Lavarnway is always an option. Salty and Shoppach will be a sufficient enough combo for us this season.

6. Cook really did not have much of a chance, especially now that he is on the DL.

7. You don't trade a guy like Buchholz. If anything send him down to AAA to develop more and work on his stuff. Dice-K might be back in around 10 days. Buchholz probably has at least one more chance to redeem himself before being sent down is an option.

8. A lot of people do not like Beckett, but realistically he is one of our better pitchers. I am not big on trading him. He will have a solid year.

9. It is amazing that when Beckett struggles, everyone wants to trade him, but when Lester struggles, everyone assumes he will come around. Be patient for both parties. They both will come around and have solid years.

10. I agree. Ellsbury needs to stay healthy when he returns. We need both him and Crawford to stay healthy when they return.

[SoxSport]

Lackey had a league minimum option tagged onto his contract due to his TJS. The sox have 3 more yrs of control after this one

 

That's good, because I think he's a better pitcher than what he has shown in Boston.

I think he pitched hurt for a couple of years.

[SoxSport]

My biggest concern about Salty right now is team ERA. He may be part of the problem.

 

That's why I'd like to see Lav in the mix--not just for his bat.

[Dojji]

It's premature to trade Youkilis. How many times have we seen a rookie like Middlebrooks start out hot and then fade to average or so? WMB id talented, but that doesn't mean he's ready to be consistent over a full MLB season.

 

Unless you're willing to commit to the possibility of winding up with Aviles at third and someone like Iglesias at short, I'd hold onto Youk until we've seen what WMB looks like after the new-rookie smell fades away.

[Dojji]

My biggest concern about Salty right now is team ERA. He may be part of the problem.

 

That's why I'd like to see Lav in the mix--not just for his bat.

 

If Lavs were a defensive catcher in any way, shape or form I'd be more sympathetic to this. He is no more of a pitcher's catcher than Salty is and he actually has much less professional catching experience.

[SoxSport]

1. Bobby Valentine is fine.

2. Bard is staying in the rotation like he should. It is better in the long run.

3. There is no space available for Padilla in the rotation. When Dice-K comes back, we will have six starters.

4. I agree. I think Middlebrooks is the long term option and he is having a great start. I don't know what we could actually get in return for Youk in a trade though. His injury history is bad and he has struggled some this year.

5. Lavarnway is always an option. Salty and Shoppach will be a sufficient enough combo for us this season.

6. Cook really did not have much of a chance, especially now that he is on the DL.

7. You don't trade a guy like Buchholz. If anything send him down to AAA to develop more and work on his stuff. Dice-K might be back in around 10 days. Buchholz probably has at least one more chance to redeem himself before being sent down is an option.

8. A lot of people do not like Beckett, but realistically he is one of our better pitchers. I am not big on trading him. He will have a solid year.

9. It is amazing that when Beckett struggles, everyone wants to trade him, but when Lester struggles, everyone assumes he will come around. Be patient for both parties. They both will come around and have solid years.

10. I agree. Ellsbury needs to stay healthy when he returns. We need both him and Crawford to stay healthy when they return.

 

Lester and Beckett are OK. Buchholz needs some bullpen duty--or a visit to the hospital.

Lav should be in the mix at catcher--right now. Iggy is hitting in Pawtucket and should be playing SS. The pitching could use the defense. Aviles is a nice backup, but his value is inflated right now.

 

I'd like to see a mix of the stars--CC,Ells, Pedey, Papi and AdGon--with the kids--Middlebrooks, Iggy and Lav. Youks is tough to figure at this point. Ross/Sweeney platoon in RF until Kalish is ready.

[ellsburyforMVP]

It's premature to trade Youkilis. How many times have we seen a rookie like Middlebrooks start out hot and then fade to average or so? WMB id talented, but that doesn't mean he's ready to be consistent over a full MLB season.

 

Unless you're willing to commit to the possibility of winding up with Aviles at third and someone like Iglesias at short, I'd hold onto Youk until we've seen what WMB looks like after the new-rookie smell fades away.

 

I don't see the sox re-signing youk anyways ( and I'm a youk fan )... Let him get some ab's when healthy- up his value from zero to ... Something, and sadly get whatever you can for him

[SoxSport]

If Lavs were a defensive catcher in any way' date=' shape or form I'd be more sympathetic to this. He is no more of a pitcher's catcher than Salty is and he actually has much less professional catching experience.[/quote']

 

Tough to say. Hasn't played enough. Maybe he can handle the pitchers better. Who knows?

 

Salty has been handed the job here. That's his main experience.

[SoxSport]

I don't see the sox re-signing youk anyways ( and I'm a youk fan )... Let him get some ab's when healthy- up his value from zero to ... Something' date=' and sadly get whatever you can for him[/quote']

 

Youks isn't worth the $13 mil option as a third baseman. He would if he were still an all-star first baseman. He is being rapidly marginalized.

[SoxSport]

jung, to make your case about the handling of the pitchers I think you need to compare the Red Sox to another team who you see doing things differently and doing it right. In yesterday's game Showalter seemed to use his bullpen pretty much exactly the same as Valentine did. Who uses a lot of relievers for short stints any more than Joe Maddon does? And the teams that made it to the World Series last year kept parading guys out of the pen in a steady stream.

 

Like I say, who is doing this the right way?

 

True. A lot of managers are caught in the same 1-2 inning syndrome. I don't know if Maddon is one of them. He's too smart to deplete a bullpen. Besides, TB has much better pitching than the Sox. Some managers are changing their tune. Leyland has had to learn the hard way this year--losing a couple of wins for Verlander. More emphasis on the starters is needed, especially finishing quality starts.

[a700hitter]

True. A lot of managers are caught in the same 1-2 inning syndrome. I don't know if Maddon is one of them. He's too smart to deplete a bullpen. Besides' date=' TB has much better pitching than the Sox. Some managers are changing their tune. Leyland has had to learn the hard way this year--losing a couple of wins for Verlander. More emphasis on the starters is needed, especially finishing quality starts.[/quote']Smart and baseball manager should never be in the same sentence. Maddon is as big a dope as the rest of them. He's still the only manager that I know that lost his DH, because he submitted a lineup card with 2 third baseman.