How about Daniel Bard so far?

[Dojji]

The problem is that this staff doesn't have a big # 1 horse who will go deep into games' date=' I.e. the 7th or 8th inning in most of his starts. A guy like that takes a tremendous amount of pressure off the pen and the rest of the staff. The Red Sox, at best have two number 2's and a 3. Some would argue that we have a 2, 3 and 4. A staff without 1 or 2 big innings eaters needs the bottom of its rotation to be better than it would need to be if we had a true ace and innings eater. The fact that Bard is doing as well as the average #5 is irrelevant, because this team needs an above average #5 if it wants to make a run at the playoffs. [/quote']

 

OK, stop. Bard is not an average #5. Brett Tomko was an average #5. The two comps I used for #5 starters were pitchers who were our #5 in World Series years and Bard stacks up with them pretty well. Bard is a solid member of the bottom of our rotation.

 

At worst Bard's a pretty solid #4 actually. If he was going 5 and out regularly then he'd be a #5, but again, he's gone through the 6th more often than not. That's not characteristic of an "average" #5 starter.

 

If you need the kind of #5 you're describing in the absence of a solid top of the rotation, Bard's your man, or at least close to that level.

 

The issue you're describing about "going backwards" would be more of a concern for me if I was convinced it was an actual trend. Not enough data points at the moment to tell whether it's a trend or a fluke.

[Spitball]

You're wrong. Frankly, Daniel Bard is, right now, a pretty solid #5 starter. He may have the potential for more, but right now, he's a good #5, which is all the team is asking him. I haven't seen Bard do anything I didn't see, say, Bronson Arroyo do, or Jon Lester in his first year back from cancer treatment, to name other times when we had really solid #5's.

 

The issue is right now that people are too hysterical about the bullpen and look at Bard, note that he's not perfect as a starter, and try to convince themselves that putting Bard back in the bullpen will Fix Everything, simply because it goes back to one thing they were comfortable with. It's pure psychology on the part of the fans.

 

Frankly Bard's performance has been better than I was worried it would be, even including the overhyped BS about the strikeout rate. Kid has shown the ability to go out there and gut it out through 5+ every night and for the most part he's kept the team in the game. It's not elite performances, but Bard's too raw to expect those, and what Bard is doing that I never expected, is finding ways to get deep into the game. I expected him to be too inefficient to do more than a 5-and-out most nights, instead he's been really good at pitching to contact and that's made up for the lack of K's and gotten him deeper into games than trying to overpower people would have. It displays a certain savvy, intelligence, and dare I say it, mental toughness, for a rookie starter, that I last saw in action while we were watching Jon Lester develop, and I take that from an inexperienced starter 10 days out of 10.

 

Bard's ERA isn't delicious, but he's gotten through the 6th inning more often than he hasn't. Combine that with a mid 4 ERA and he's really pitching like an average #3. Again, not elite, but better than the resident yammerers are willing to admit.

 

For me, taking a very good reliever and turning him into an average number 5 starter is your basic Peter Principle. The principle basically follows that, "employees tend to rise to their level of incompetence."

 

Bard should be employed in the role that he is most suited. You don't take Kate Upton and have her model ski parkas. You use people in the roles that they can excel.

[Dojji]

And the reason I disagree is because I don't expect Bard to stay at this level. He's doing OK while he's still figuring things out, but I expect him to figure things out.

 

I suspect the K rate thing is overblown because I suspect the team is trying to get him to pitch to contact in order to get him through lineups multiple times. A strategy which Bard has proven at least competent at. Once he masters that, I suspect the K's will go up simply as a facet of his greater mastery of the art of pitching. Right now they haven't taken the training wheels off for reals, so judging him on what you're seeing right now is a bit foolhardy.

[Bellhorn04]

For me, taking a very good reliever and turning him into an average number 5 starter is your basic Peter Principle. The principle basically follows that, "employees tend to rise to their level of incompetence."

 

Bard should be employed in the role that he is most suited. You don't take Kate Upton and have her model ski parkas. You use people in the roles that they can excel.

 

But you don't know that Bard will remain an average #5 starter based on 7 major league starts. You just don't. There is a learning curve.

[Dojji]

I wonder if seabeachfred was one of the people who was down on Lester over his first couple half seasons because of the mediocre command he'd displayed up to that point.

[Bellhorn04]

I wonder if seabeachfred was one of the people who was down on Lester over his first couple half seasons because of the mediocre command he'd displayed up to that point.

 

Fred is the epitome of an impatient baseball fan.

[a700hitter]

But you don't know that Bard will remain an average #5 starter based on 7 major league starts. You just don't. There is a learning curve.

I also would not expect that his velocity will increase beyond the 92-93 mph that he is currently throwing. At that velocity, he is just not the "special arm" that they anticipated.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I also would not expect that his velocity will increase beyond the 92-93 mph that he is currently throwing. At that velocity' date=' he is just not the "special arm" that they anticipated.[/quote']

 

Therein lies the problem. Because the reason he was a first round pick was because in college his FB was 95-98 deep into games. Perhaps he has an injury or maybe he is just fatigued from being stretched out. Whatever the reason, the Sox need to start asking these questions now.

 

His first 4 starts he was averaging 94.6 on his FB and the last 4 he's averaging 93 with a 92 average his last start. Predictably his K/9 has collapsed in that same time frame.

[jacksonianmarch]

He had a massive problem repeating his delivery on arriving in the minors. They simplified things for him out of the stretch and he reached his potential from a pen perspective. Now, they are complicating things for him. His command hasnt reached that level, but he is devolving into the mess he was in A ball when he walked nearly a batter an inning.

[Elktonnick]

He had a massive problem repeating his delivery on arriving in the minors. They simplified things for him out of the stretch and he reached his potential from a pen perspective. Now' date=' they are complicating things for him. His command hasnt reached that level, but he is devolving into the mess he was in A ball when he walked nearly a batter an inning.[/quote']

 

The problem has become the Red Sox have no viable 5th starter alternative right now. So they are more or less stuck with Bard starting. I have never believed Bard would be anything other than a mediocre starter that he as thus far shown to be. The question is whether by returning to the pen if he'll ever regain fast ball command or velocity. That is the underlying risk of this experiment and leaving him as a starter until either Dice-K or Cook can return or they obtain a nbr 5 by trade or other means.

[Emmz]

I've been keeping track, but I am quite ashamed to say I've watched one game, and it was in person. I was as torn as I could possibly be, but it was the 11-2 ass-whooping at Target Field.

 

Bard's stats don't look god-awful, and that's really just fine. I will be totally satisfied if he finished the season with an ERA around 4.5, as crappy as that sounds, at least it's not Lackey-bad.

[FredLynn]

Therein lies the problem. Because the reason he was a first round pick was because in college his FB was 95-98 deep into games. Perhaps he has an injury or maybe he is just fatigued from being stretched out. Whatever the reason, the Sox need to start asking these questions now.

 

His first 4 starts he was averaging 94.6 on his FB and the last 4 he's averaging 93 with a 92 average his last start. Predictably his K/9 has collapsed in that same time frame.

 

I am wondering if he is pacing himself out there. I remember a quote from him when he was a reliever and getting everyone out with a 100mph fastball. He said "I throw every pitch as hard as I can".

[Spitball]

I am wondering if he is pacing himself out there. I remember a quote from him when he was a reliever and getting everyone out with a 100mph fastball. He said "I throw every pitch as hard as I can".

 

Maybe but that wouldn't explain such a drastic drop in k-rate and rise in walk-rate.

 

Neftali Feliz is making a similar transition. His k-rates from last year to this year are exactly the same. C.J. Wilson's dropped only about one per nine when he made the same transition a few years ago.

[Dojji]

I am wondering if he is pacing himself out there. I remember a quote from him when he was a reliever and getting everyone out with a 100mph fastball. He said "I throw every pitch as hard as I can".

 

And it is possible that he's overthinking it too -- underthrowing simply because he doesn't know what "pacing himself" looks like over multiple starts yet and he knows that one good arm injury too early in the process will ruin everything.

[Elktonnick]

And it is possible that he's overthinking it too -- underthrowing simply because he doesn't know what "pacing himself" looks like over multiple starts yet and he knows that one good arm injury too early in the process will ruin everything.

 

The entire Red Sox rotation suffers from this problem of over thinking. They spend entirely too much time between pitches and never establish a rhythm. This is the reason why I am concerned that this experiment if it continues too much longer could result in causing more harm than good. But the Sox are stuck since they have no other 5th starter readily avaiable. So moving Bard out of the rotation is a moot point for the time being.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe but that wouldn't explain such a drastic drop in k-rate and rise in walk-rate.

 

Neftali Feliz is making a similar transition. His k-rates from last year to this year are exactly the same. C.J. Wilson's dropped only about one per nine when he made the same transition a few years ago.

 

Feliz was just placed on the DL with elbow inflammation.

[Spitball]

Feliz was just placed on the DL with elbow inflammation.

 

Inflamed elbow or not, Feliz has carried his k-rate and walk-rate over in his transition. Bard has not.

[Dojji]

And you didn't stop and think for a moment about why Feliz is hurt and Bard is healthy?

[Spitball]

And you didn't stop and think for a moment about why Feliz is hurt and Bard is healthy?

 

I don't see how that is relevant. Pitchers do get hurt. Feliz was producing at a consistent k-rate, and Bard has not been.

[Spitball]

And I don't know for sure Bard's problems are not health related.

[a700hitter]

He has been a reliable bottom of the rotation guy for most of his career.

Twins To Designate Jason Marquis For Assignment

By Zach Links [May 21 at 5:13pm CST]

The Twins are set to designate pitcher Jason Marquis for assignment, a source tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). The 33-year-old has strugged so far in 2012, posting an ERA of 8.47 with 3.2 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in seven starts.

 

The right-hander inked a one-year, $3MM deal with the Twins in December after picking up interest from other clubs, including the Mets. Morosi notes that despite his struggles in Minnesota this year, the hurler has a history of success in the National League.

 

Marquis made 23 starts for the Nats and D'Backs in 2011, finishing the year with a 4.43 ERA, 5.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 across 132 innings.

[Dojji]

Said career being over.

[mvp 78]

Marquis, really? If he's pitching for anything but the Brockton Rox, count me out.

[SoxSport]

The Sox have two headaches as starters right now--Buchholz and Bard. Bard isn't pitching well enough as a starter right now compared to what he could do in the bullpen. And Buchholz has a problem he needs to resolve either in the bullpen (heaven forbid, Ben) or in Pawtucket.

[Bellhorn04]

And I don't know for sure Bard's problems are not health related.

 

Nor do we know if Feliz's problem is related to overtaxing his arm as a starter. It's certainly a possibility though, considering the timing.

[Dojji]

The Sox have two headaches as starters right now--Buchholz and Bard. Bard isn't pitching well enough as a starter right now compared to what he could do in the bullpen. And Buchholz has a problem he needs to resolve either in the bullpen (heaven forbid' date=' Ben) or in Pawtucket.[/quote']

 

Our bullpen woes aren't severe enough to justify moving a starter to the pen.

 

This team needs to be about more than maximizing Bard's personal value

[Bellhorn04]

Some numbers that back up Dojji's point about Bard's numbers not being that bad.

 

Yankees

Kuroda 4.56

Hughes 5.23

Nova 5.69

 

Orioles

Arrieta 4.72

Hunter 5.07

Matusz 5.36

[Spitball]

Nor do we know if Feliz's problem is related to overtaxing his arm as a starter. It's certainly a possibility though' date=' considering the timing.[/quote']

 

He had arm problems early last year as a reliever.

[FredLynn]

Some numbers that back up Dojji's point about Bard's numbers not being that bad.

 

Yankees

Kuroda 4.56

Hughes 5.23

Nova 5.69

 

Orioles

Arrieta 4.72

Hunter 5.07

Matusz 5.36

 

So what are you saying? Because the Yankees and Orioles have problems with their lower tier SP we should not try to improve ours? Bard excelled in the pen, and I think he could excel there again. Sign Oswalt and send Bard back to the bullpen. That gives us the best chance to be competitive this year.

[Bellhorn04]

So what are you saying? Because the Yankees and Orioles have problems with their lower tier SP we should not try to improve ours? Bard excelled in the pen' date=' and I think he could excel there again. Sign Oswalt and send Bard back to the bullpen. That gives us the best chance to be competitive this year.[/quote']

 

What if Oswalt can't make the move from the NL to the AL East any better than Kuroda seems to be making it?

What if Buchholz doesn't get any better?

What if Bard puts together a couple of good starts and his ERA goes down a point?