Doubront named 4th starter

[a700hitter]

Well good thing that opening day doesn't count for the whole season

It counts as much as any other game. If we had won on opening day in 2011, the Sox would have been in the playoffs.

[mvp 78]

It counts as much as any other game. If we had won on opening day in 2011' date=' the Sox would have been in the playoffs.[/quote']

 

And if Paps didn't s*** the bed in game 162...

[a700hitter]

And if Paps didn't s*** the bed in game 162...

and Mo blew a World Series game 7 in 2001. I shudder to think what Boston fans would have thought of Papelbon if he had ever done that. Yankee fans, at least, realized they had greatness in their midst.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Before we all jump off the Tobin bridge, let's remember this is a minor thumb injury (he threw in a minor league game just a few days ago, and the reasoning was so that if he needed a DL stint, they could backdate it to his last MLB start.

 

I'm pretty sure that if this was anything serious, they wouldn't have let him throw in a minor league game, and they were clearly aware of it before his work that day.

 

If he hits the DL, he'll be eligible to come back on April 10th. That's missing a mere 4 games. I'm pretty sure we can get by with Melancon, Aceves, Morales, Albers, and Padilla over 4 games.

[SCM33]

And if Paps didn't s*** the bed in game 162...

 

And if Crawford had a good year....

 

And if JD Drew/RF wasnt a black hole...

 

And if Beckett didn't give up 6 ER in his final 2 starts of the season....

 

And if beer and chicken didn't happen...

 

And if the team didn't quit on Tito....

 

And if Buchholz was healthy....

 

And if Lackey had an ERA around mid 5 rather than mid 6....

 

All of a sudden Papelbon is the only reason they lost? They missed the playoffs by 1 game. Game #1 was just as important as #162 and all of the things listed above contributed to it.

[mvp 78]

He wasn't the only reason. I agree with all your points.

 

Just can't say "well if they won opening day last year..." without mentioning other s***** parts of the season.

[iortiz]

I'm convinced that our putrid apples contaminated the good ones. Even Felix or Lee would have ended up with a 6.0 ERA that September. Mentally we were done already, even without playing. Everybody was expecting tons of runs early in games. Always was a declined and tough hill that September.

[a700hitter]

He wasn't the only reason. I agree with all your points.

 

Just can't say "well if they won opening day last year..." without mentioning other s***** parts of the season.

and you can't say opening day doesn't matter.

[mvp 78]

and you can't say opening day doesn't matter.

 

And you can't say "well if they won on opening day" just to serve an argument about Bailey not being ready for the first game of the year.

 

And you'll just respond with :thumbdown so it doesn't matter anyway.

[a700hitter]

And you can't say "well if they won on opening day" just to serve an argument about Bailey not being ready for the first game of the year.

 

And you'll just respond with :thumbdown so it doesn't matter anyway.

Okay, you win. Opening Day doesn't matter. None of the games matter.

 

I never said that Opening Day 2011 was the only reason why we did n't make the playoffs, but the fact is if they had won that game... If you notice, I didn't say that you were wrong that if we had won game 162 we would have been in the playoffs. The last game was just as important as the first. And when you lose by 1 game, they are all equally important. They all matter.

[seabeachfred]

On opening day' date=' we will not have a closer.[/quote']

 

Closer by committee anyone? We saw how that worked out the first three months of the 2003 season, didn't we? As 700 said, ON OPENING DAY WE WILL NOT HAVE A CLOSER!!!!!!! Think Jon Lester can pitch nine inning and outduel Verlander 3-2?

[seabeachfred]

Well good thing that opening day doesn't count for the whole season

 

That sounds like something I would have expected from Francona. All games count. Remember, we missed the playoffs by ONE game last season.

[iortiz]

That sounds like something I would have expected from Francona. All games count. Remember' date=' we missed the playoffs by ONE game last season.[/quote']

 

All games will count next season, mostly as competitive the AL and our division seems.

[jung]

One thing we are forgetting is that we no longer have a "formula driven" manager. V has had teams and seasons where he has gone to his closer to pitch the ninth as much an anybody has and he has had other teams and other seasons where he has not.

 

If for example especially without Bailey, I am inclined to think that if V gets to the 7th inning with a lead and brings in Aceves, if he shuts down the opposition, for the 7th and 8th, I am not all that convinced that V will pull him for the ninth. I am not convinced that if he brings somebody in for the 8th who pitches lights out for the 8th that he won't leave him there for the 9th without Bailey. All by way of saying that just because the Sox may not throw a hand grenade in the middle of the plans they have made is no reason to suggest that they are not going to compete for games without Bailey.

 

This is one of the things that kills me about the way we approach these issues. Guess what folks! There are games that can be lost because you threw a hand grenade in the middle of what you had established for your team. They may not be the first game of the season. They may be the first game of the season or may be the twentieth. But unless you can provide a definitive, no holds barred, dead nuts deal for the value of tossing that hand grenade then you could easily do as much harm as good.

[Palodios]

All of a sudden Papelbon is the only reason they lost? They missed the playoffs by 1 game. Game #1 was just as important as #162 and all of the things listed above contributed to it.

 

When you take away Papelbon's ability to close out big games, what does he have? A 3.00 ERA over the last three years, and generally great-- but not elite-- numbers. Rivera has a full ERA point over Papelbon from 2009-2011. A full point.

 

Scott Downs, who earned his keep in Toronto, has a better ERA over the last three years.

And yet, Papelbon was just handed the richest contract for any closer ever. Why? Because he has the ability to close big games.... oh wait....

[a700hitter]

When you take away Papelbon's ability to close out big games, what does he have? A 3.00 ERA over the last three years, and generally great-- but not elite-- numbers. Rivera has a full ERA point over Papelbon from 2009-2011. A full point.

 

Scott Downs, who earned his keep in Toronto, has a better ERA over the last three years.

And yet, Papelbon was just handed the richest contract for any closer ever. Why? Because he has the ability to close big games.... oh wait....

We get it. You hate Papelbon, but 9th innings will be miserable without him.

[jung]

I think the official "closer" until Bailey comes back will either be Melancon or Aceves. Aceves is not the classic closer but his command of a variety of pitches and the fact that he will not even see the lineup one time if he closes may make him the best temporary closer that we have. The fact that Melancon has closed before makes him a viable option as well. Melancon has having done it before going for him. Aceves has his incredible versatility and the likelihood that he would be unflustered by the role going for him.

 

Bard is not ready to close. The entire reason Bailey was brought here was because Paps was let go and Bard is not ready to close. He may never be ready to close. Besides that, his one inning stints last we saw of them were not going so great. Nor do I think Bard is a versatile performer able to switch gears like Aceves can. So one half of the problem with bringing Bard to close is that he is no closer.

 

The second problem is that it elevates Cook to the rotation now. Cook is not ready for the rotation at this point. He could easily end up getting lit up like a Christmas tree at this point. In fact if Miller were available I might buy bringing Miller into the rotation at this point but not Cook.

 

That this is what I meant about not throwing a hand grenade into the plans you have made unless you have good reason to believe that what you are doing will help. There is no reason to believe that Bard can close at this point nor a reason to believe that Cook can start in the ALE.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This may sound bleeping crazy, but I think I'm going to wait and see how deep our SP go and how Aceves/Bailey/Melancon do closing before I declare Papelbon irreplaceable.

 

Let's at least give these guys a chance first. They all 3 had great success last year in their various roles, so who is to say it won't translate.

[Palodios]

We get it. You hate Papelbon' date=' but 9th innings will be miserable without him.[/quote']

 

It isn't about hatred. It is an objective view on a significantly overvalued player. It is simple as that.

[User Name]

It isn't about hatred. It is an objective view on a significantly overvalued player. It is simple as that.

 

Stop it with all this logic nonsense!

[YAZMAN]

This may sound bleeping crazy, but I think I'm going to wait and see how deep our SP go and how Aceves/Bailey/Melancon do closing before I declare Papelbon irreplaceable.

 

Let's at least give these guys a chance first. They all 3 had great success last year in their various roles, so who is to say it won't translate.

 

Papelbon isn't irreplaceable, they just haven't replaced him yet.

 

Seriously, although I believe he has peaked, he's still going to be a very legitimate closer for a few years.

[jacksonianmarch]

Papelbon isnt irreplaceable. He's just difficult to replace due to his durability and consistency. You knew the guy was going to be healthy and finish near 90% of his games. His career save % is 89%. In only one season has he blown more than 6 and had a lower save % than 85%. You also knew he could play in Fenway, which isnt a given these days. You got Bailey. He's lights out when healthy, but he is frequently injured and is likely to start the season on the DL. Not a good start

[User Name]

Papelbon isnt irreplaceable. He's just difficult to replace due to his durability and consistency. You knew the guy was going to be healthy and finish near 90% of his games. His career save % is 89%. In only one season has he blown more than 6 and had a lower save % than 85%. You also knew he could play in Fenway' date=' which isnt a given these days. You got Bailey. He's lights out when healthy, but he is frequently injured and is likely to start the season on the DL. Not a good start[/quote']

 

Pretty much sums it up right there.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The good thing is that we have both Aceves and Melancon who have succeeded in the bullpen before, especially Aceves, who was lights out in the pen last season.

 

I have no doubt that Aceves can easily fill in for Bailey while he's out. To me, Bailey's injury puts a little more pressure on the SP to go an inning deeper into games so they can cut out an inning off the end of the game. But again, it's probably only 4 games. He may not even hit the DL considering he threw after the coaching staff and medical staff were aware of the injury.

[jacksonianmarch]

The good thing is that we have both Aceves and Melancon who have succeeded in the bullpen before, especially Aceves, who was lights out in the pen last season.

 

I have no doubt that Aceves can easily fill in for Bailey while he's out. To me, Bailey's injury puts a little more pressure on the SP to go an inning deeper into games so they can cut out an inning off the end of the game. But again, it's probably only 4 games. He may not even hit the DL considering he threw after the coaching staff and medical staff were aware of the injury.

 

Yes, he threw after they were aware of the injury and now he is heading back to Boston. I think you are giving the sox medical staff too much credit. My guess is he is going to have an MRI and get examined by a hand specialist. And with the season starting so soon, I would surmise that even if they think it is just tendonitis, they'll shelve him for 15 days to make sure he is healthy. They need him for the long haul, not to have a nagging injury for the whole season.

[User Name]

Reports say that if they put him on the DL, they'll do so retroactively to the last week of ST.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I agree - He's going to more than likely hit the DL, all I'm saying is that it's not a certainty. The fact that they threw him in a minor league game rather than a major league game shows that they were at least a little concerned because now they can backdate his DL stint to his last MLB game. But at the same time, it's not so serious that they were afraid of putting him back out there.

 

Tendonitis sounds like that could be the case, though. And if so, 15 days off would be April 10th or 12th, so he'd miss 4-6 games. Still not bad at all. Closers go 4-6 games between needs plenty of times, so you never know how much they will need him.

[jung]

Of course it was hard for Paps to go 4-6 games with Tito around as once the 9th rolled around Tito only knew one thing to do....call Paps. "But we are up by 7 runs"....never mind...call Paps!

[SoxFanForsyth]

Of course it was hard for Paps to go 4-6 games with Tito around as once the 9th rolled around Tito only knew one thing to do....call Paps. "But we are up by 7 runs"....never mind...call Paps!

 

It's true. He threw in 63 games last year, and of those, only 34 were save situations. I know you're going to have to get your closer into more than just 34 games during the year, but getting him in around 50 games total for the year should be plenty, especially in a season like last season when this team was playoff bound nearly the entire year until September 28th. Gotta save those bullets.

 

Valentine, I think, is quite the opposite. I think he'll play the matchups much more than Francona ever did rather than relying on 2 relievers the entire year.

 

Have a look at the Rays bullpen the past few years. They are consistently putting up a sub 3.70 ERA. And look at the talent they have in their pen. It's nothing compared to the Sox bullpens, yet they are consistently better. Why? Because Maddon puts each of his relievers in their best chance to succeed. He throws lefties vs lefties. He's not too lazy to make a pitching change once the advantage of a situational pitcher goes away.

[iortiz]

Of course it was hard for Paps to go 4-6 games with Tito around as once the 9th rolled around Tito only knew one thing to do....call Paps. "But we are up by 7 runs"....never mind...call Paps!

 

 

Sounds like... Gordon calling Batman...