Bard to Rotation a Mistake?

[a700hitter]

Everyone predicts s*** on here right and wrong. Nobody here has a crystal ball.

I've never benn wrong predicting that you would be a dick.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Not picking sides here, but he wouldn't be on your ass so much if you stop taking shots at him. MVP is a good poster and just because he expresses himself different than others doesn't make him a dick.

[rjortiz]

Should have been a flag converting him back to starter. They ignored it. The logical move for him was to closer. Cherington's biggest mistake. The other was getting fleeced by Beane on the Bailey trade. The FO was just trying to save money by not signing a FA starter. They ignored Bailey's injury history. It was a disaster.

 

Definitely should have been a red flag, but there's also no guarantee that Bard succeeds in the closer role. Someone pointed out that the wheels started to fall off in September 2011. That could have continued into 2012 as a reliever.

 

I'm not in favor of giving up good prospects for relievers, maybe if it's a glaring need at the deadline. This is also with the benefit of hindsight, but they might have been able to take the combined Lowrie and Reddick packages to make a move for a starter. I don't know who was available, and I'm not 100% sure that Lowrie and Reddick would have landed us a young starter at the time, so that's just wild speculation on my part. Also, many people believed Reddick was a 4th OF. We also got Sweeney in the deal. Although he sucked, it is defensible that the Red Sox thought they were swapping 4th OF's, and only gave up two prospects for a cheap replacement for Papelbon. I'll bet that no one thought that Reddick would have a WAR of 4.5 playing everyday. The deal didn't work out, but looking at it when it was made, it doesn't look a horrendous decision. The Melancon deal was a little more questionable, because Lowrie was a potential everyday SS, and Melancon was going to be the 8th inning guy. It also didn't help that they traded Scutaro, because you could at least argue that they moved Lowrie due to a surplus. They did have a need in the bullpen, and contending teams tend to overpay to fill holes, so that's another way to look at the deal. I think we can call it a bad deal, but if his worst move is trading away Reddick and Lowrie, then Cherrington is doing OK. He definitely could have maximized the returns, but they didn't cripple the franchise.

 

As for not signing a free agent starter, the FO was against the wall with the massive contract commitments they already had on the books. They were banking on Bailey/Melancon to be a solid 1-2 punch, and for Bard to be respectable in the rotation. That blew up in their face, but they could have survived with just those moves going wrong. It's just that everything else that could have went wrong, went wrong. When you look back at 2012, it's a good thing that it did. A fringe contender probably doesn't unload Crawford/Beckett/Gonzalez, and the team isn't retooled for 2013.

[a700hitter]

Not picking sides here, but he wouldn't be on your ass so much if you stop taking shots at him. MVP is a good poster and just because he expresses himself different than others doesn't make him a dick.

He can be a good poster, but he can't resist being a snarky prick with just about everyone, not just me. He admits to being a snarky prick, and obviously enjoys it. I have made enough efforts to co-exist with him. Now, we will have to just co-exist with mutual disdain.

[User Name]

a700 talking about others being snarky pricks. I'm not fixing myself anything, since i just had some delicious irony for breakfast. Just stop.

[sk7326]

Should have been a flag converting him back to starter. They ignored it. The logical move for him was to closer. Cherington's biggest mistake. The other was getting fleeced by Beane on the Bailey trade. The FO was just trying to save money by not signing a FA starter. They ignored Bailey's injury history. It was a disaster.

 

Well Cherington has had a bit of a fetish for the proven closer trade ... the A's trade was a dicey one - although Reddick's issues seem somewhat permanent (sloppy approach) an adequate corner outfielder never begets a non-amazing reliever. Same could be said for the Melancon deal, where Lowrie is a starting level infielder when healthy (which of course he almost never is). The Hanrahan trade was more a garbage for garbage deal ... that Melancon has saved a bunch of games does not move me at all. If he has a poor spot as GM, that is it.

 

Converting Bard was not a bad idea so much as not having a plan for it failing and being very indecisive (and frankly, letting Bobby talk to him or send notes or whatever the hell he did).

[mvp 78]

Not picking sides here, but he wouldn't be on your ass so much if you stop taking shots at him. MVP is a good poster and just because he expresses himself different than others doesn't make him a dick.

How can I be on his ass? I have him on ignore and have so for months. I don't care about him. He's not worth my trouble. Interesting that he still thinks I'm out to get him or whatever...

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

By "on your ass", I meant confronting him when he says something about you. You guys use to fight a lot and the main reason was because of cheap shots. Thank god it hasn't happened lately, but there would be multiple pages of just straight ********. Same goes for VA. They don't seem to get along, but then a700 goes for the cheap shot insult, and more nonsense starts. I don't get it. You're all good posters and the main reason for fighting is elementary kid s***. I'd hate to see any of you guys get banned. Did not know you had him on ignore, but hopefully that'll put an end to this.

[VA Sox Fan]

By "on your ass", I meant confronting him when he says something about you. You guys use to fight a lot and the main reason was because of cheap shots. Thank god it hasn't happened lately, but there would be multiple pages of just straight ********. Same goes for VA. They don't seem to get along, but then a700 goes for the cheap shot insult, and more nonsense starts. I don't get it. You're all good posters and the main reason for fighting is elementary kid s***. I'd hate to see any of you guys get banned. Did not know you had him on ignore, but hopefully that'll put an end to this.

 

Leave me out of this s***. I haven't had any problems with any posters lately!

[a700hitter]

By "on your ass", I meant confronting him when he says something about you. You guys use to fight a lot and the main reason was because of cheap shots. Thank god it hasn't happened lately, but there would be multiple pages of just straight ********. Same goes for VA. They don't seem to get along, but then a700 goes for the cheap shot insult, and more nonsense starts. I don't get it. You're all good posters and the main reason for fighting is elementary kid s***. I'd hate to see any of you guys get banned. Did not know you had him on ignore, but hopefully that'll put an end to this.

You must be bored to be poking around in these hornets nests. LOL!!! Pot-stirring. LOL!

[mvp 78]

By "on your ass", I meant confronting him when he says something about you. You guys use to fight a lot and the main reason was because of cheap shots. Thank god it hasn't happened lately, but there would be multiple pages of just straight ********. Same goes for VA. They don't seem to get along, but then a700 goes for the cheap shot insult, and more nonsense starts. I don't get it. You're all good posters and the main reason for fighting is elementary kid s***. I'd hate to see any of you guys get banned. Did not know you had him on ignore, but hopefully that'll put an end to this.

 

I have him on ignore and don't talk about him. I don't know what else there is to say about this.

 

There is nothing in this thread (recent anyway) directed at him. Why is my user name being brought up as if I've done something wrong?

 

All I said was that no one here knows the future or has better projections than anyone else. How is that controversial?

[Orange Juiced]

Getting predictions wrong is a part of life - it's what makes this fun too. If you have a good reliever - and you think he can be a good starter, you really ought to try him starting ... 200 innings of value vs 60 - no contest. The thing is you have to either A) cut bait totally when it is not working (the Red Sox mistake) or be committed to it (the Yankees one with Joba).

 

It's hard to do these sorts of things in a, frankly, insane market like Boston or New York - especially with PR-obsessed management. Yankees should have been willing to stand behind the Joba experiment (and he was very very highly regarded as a STARTER by scouting types, which Bard never really was) and not be wishy washy about it. Fortunately of course, they screwed that up.

 

I think the interesting discussion (getting back to the topic....ahem) is about the relative value between a good starter or a GREAT reliever.

 

Starter: 180 ip, 4.00 era

Reliever: 60 ip, 2.00 era

 

(just to keep the numbers simple)

 

The Yankees have two guys that pretty much hit these numbers:

 

Pettitte: 150.1 ip (on pace for about 176.1 ip), 4.01 era, 1.2 bWAR

Rivera: 51.0 ip (on pace for about 60.0 ip), 2.12 era, 1.8 bWAR

 

So by these numbers, a great reliever is worth a little more than half a game more than a good starter. Obviously, it's a sliding scale. If Pettitte was a little better and Rivera a little worse, Pettitte becomes more valuable. Etc.

 

*Note: The average era for an AL starter this year at this point is 4.18, so Pettitte is outperforming the average AL starter by 0.17.

[User Name]

Good and average are not the same thing.

[Orange Juiced]

Good and average are not the same thing.

 

I know. Do you have a point?

[sk7326]

I think the interesting discussion (getting back to the topic....ahem) is about the relative value between a good starter or a GREAT reliever.

 

Starter: 180 ip, 4.00 era

Reliever: 60 ip, 2.00 era

 

(just to keep the numbers simple)

 

The Yankees have two guys that pretty much hit these numbers:

 

Pettitte: 150.1 ip (on pace for about 176.1 ip), 4.01 era, 1.2 bWAR

Rivera: 51.0 ip (on pace for about 60.0 ip), 2.12 era, 1.8 bWAR

 

So by these numbers, a great reliever is worth a little more than half a game more than a good starter. Obviously, it's a sliding scale. If Pettitte was a little better and Rivera a little worse, Pettitte becomes more valuable. Etc.

 

*Note: The average era for an AL starter this year at this point is 4.18, so Pettitte is outperforming the average AL starter by 0.17.

 

Well, if you go to Fangraphs, it is more like Pettitte by 1.5 wins. It is a vestige of how the numbers are calculated (Fangraphs uses FIP, Baseball reference adjusts actual runs allowed) ... but your conclusion - that a reliever has to be like twice as good as league average to make up a 3x IP difference is not unreasonable. But the guy has to be lights out in the short role - or else 180 innings of decent starting (which is better than 2013 Pettitte) is still more valuable, both for the value the pitcher creates as well as for the innings he takes from inferior pitchers.

[User Name]

I know. Do you have a point?

 

You said the comparison was a "good" starter" against an "elite" reliever. Petitte is an average starter, while Mariano is an elite reliever. Your analysis is not following the rules you set up yourself.

[User Name]

Well, if you go to Fangraphs, it is more like Pettitte by 1.5 wins. It is a vestige of how the numbers are calculated (Fangraphs uses FIP, Baseball reference adjusts actual runs allowed) ... but your conclusion - that a reliever has to be like twice as good as league average to make up a 3x IP difference is not unreasonable. But the guy has to be lights out in the short role - or else 180 innings of decent starting (which is better than 2013 Pettitte) is still more valuable, both for the value the pitcher creates as well as for the innings he takes from inferior pitchers.

 

This is what is was getting at.

[mvp 78]

@MaureenaMullen: #Cubs claim Bard off waivers. #RedSox DFA'ed him on Sun. Theo was sox GM when they drafted Bard in 1st rd '06. #redsoxtalk

 

Close thread.

[Orange Juiced]

You said the comparison was a "good" starter" against an "elite" reliever. Petitte is an average starter, while Mariano is an elite reliever. Your analysis is not following the rules you set up yourself.

 

Ok then compare Rivera with Doubront.

 

Rivera: 51.0 ip (on pace for about 60.0 ip), 2.12 era, 1.8 bWAR

Doubront: 150.1 ip (on pace for about 176.1 ip), 3.89 era, 107 era+, 1.9 bWAR

 

Same basic principle. And Doubront has clearly been better than average.

[User Name]

But in this case, Doubront edges out Rivera in both BB-Ref WAR (although slightly) and Fangraphs WAR (by a large, 2.2 win margin).

[Orange Juiced]

But in this case, Doubront edges out Rivera in both BB-Ref WAR (although slightly) and Fangraphs WAR (by a large, 2.2 win margin).

 

Ok. I was just going by bWAR. But my larger point is that there's a point where the reliever is more valuable. Where that exact point is is, I suppose, a bit nebulous. Its why its an interesting exercise.

[sk7326]

Ok. I was just going by bWAR. But my larger point is that there's a point where the reliever is more valuable. Where that exact point is is, I suppose, a bit nebulous. Its why its an interesting exercise.

 

It is - it also helps give you an idea at the sort of reliever you give real money to ... Rivera, your 2006-2008 Papelbon, prime Joe Nathan, Koji if he had more of a long run track record of 2013

[SoxSport]

Well Cherington has had a bit of a fetish for the proven closer trade ... the A's trade was a dicey one - although Reddick's issues seem somewhat permanent (sloppy approach) an adequate corner outfielder never begets a non-amazing reliever. Same could be said for the Melancon deal, where Lowrie is a starting level infielder when healthy (which of course he almost never is). The Hanrahan trade was more a garbage for garbage deal ... that Melancon has saved a bunch of games does not move me at all. If he has a poor spot as GM, that is it.

 

Converting Bard was not a bad idea so much as not having a plan for it failing and being very indecisive (and frankly, letting Bobby talk to him or send notes or whatever the hell he did).

 

Ben was just doing what he was told to do--hold the line on spending so they wouldn't go over the cap. He went the cheapest route--converting Bard to a starter and trading for a cheap closer. That way, he didn't have to spend big bucks for a FA starter. It was pretty obvious at the time.

 

I still can't understand why they spent that $26 mil on Dempster this year. You never want to sign an aging pitcher who was passed up by Nolan Ryan after a mediocre run in Texas. I thought it was a mistake at the time, and I was right.

[User Name]

You always consider yourself to be right on everything no matter how much evidence is provided to the contrary. Par for the course.

[sk7326]

Ben was just doing what he was told to do--hold the line on spending so they wouldn't go over the cap. He went the cheapest route--converting Bard to a starter and trading for a cheap closer. That way, he didn't have to spend big bucks for a FA starter. It was pretty obvious at the time.

 

I still can't understand why they spent that $26 mil on Dempster this year. You never want to sign an aging pitcher who was passed up by Nolan Ryan after a mediocre run in Texas. I thought it was a mistake at the time, and I was right.

 

2 years for a durable starter - you look at what the market pays for guys like Edwin Jackson for instance ... guys whose central virtue is that they never get hurt ... and that everybody is drowning in money (you know it's a buyers market when BJ Upton got what he got from the Braves - and it was "reasonable" for the free agent class). Dempster at 2/26 is a very fair price. I've been annoyed with the inconsistency, but he has been there every fifth day - and in a sport where you want your Kyle Weilands as far the hell away from any start that matters as possible, that is a talent in itself. We do not get to the playoffs without his contribution.

[redsoxrules]

Bard claimed the cubs

[User Name]

Wow i didn't know he had so much money. He'll probably be better than the Cubs' current owners too!

[Bellhorn04]

You always consider yourself to be right on everything no matter how much evidence is provided to the contrary. Par for the course.

 

Didn't Nolan Ryan pass on Koji Uehara too?

[a700hitter]

U.N. never thinks that he himself is right.

[Palodios]

Didn't Nolan Ryan pass on Koji Uehara too?

 

Well played!