What if we went all-out on D? (warning: Dojji is thinking, read at own risk)

[mvp 78]

Paladios shouldn't have deleted that.

 

Unsmiley face...

[Palodios]

Paladios shouldn't have deleted that.

 

Unsmiley face...

 

Haha, maybe a little too tasteless.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

No for so many reasons. There's no way in hell I'm moving Ellsbury(who does a damn good job in CF) for Lin. I wouldn't even put him in any part of the outfield. He's not an upgrade over Ross or Sweeney. He could be good on Defense but I'm pretty sure it won't cover for his flawed offense. There's really nothing to discuss here. I don't think anyone but Dojji is on this train and it's not the first time. I love the title of this thread btw.

[Emmz]

Tug Hulett anyone?

[Laser Show]

I think this a good idea, in MLB 2k12. It'd be fun to try it out, but it's definitely not realistic. I love these Lin and Iglesias type players, and I think we have more than enough offense to do it, but our management would get laughed right out of Boston if they did.

 

I do think Iglesias takes over as the everyday SS by July. If Lin hits AAA pitching well, he may make a cameo as well at some point.

[Emmz]

You like guys who will probably hit for a .650 OPS, if not worse in Lin's case? O.o

 

I like someone like Lin if they have Brett Gardner's OBP.

[Laser Show]

You like guys who will probably hit for a .650 OPS, if not worse in Lin's case? O.o

 

I like someone like Lin if they have Brett Gardner's OBP.

 

It's more like, I like wizards with the glove

[Emmz]

Yeah, its fun to watch, but I like glove wizards who can also hit.

[Dojji]

He's not an upgrade over Ross or Sweeney.

 

I've already demonstrated repeatedly using wins above replacement that he has a very good chance to be an upgrade over either.

 

People overvalue the offensive component, probably because it's just plain easier to keep track of properly.

[mvp 78]

Very good? He'd have to hit better in the majors than he did at AAA for it to work. Seems more like "not likely" to me.

[User Name]

I've already demonstrated repeatedly using wins above replacement that he has a very good chance to be an upgrade over either.

 

People overvalue the offensive component, probably because it's just plain easier to keep track of properly.

 

No you haven't. You used Coco's 2007 as a benchmark, which is fine, until you realize he was both a near-league average producer, and that he had an otherworldly defensive season.

 

The little of Lin you've watched doesn't justify equating his defense to either Ellsbury or Crisp himself, and there are no metrics to back this point up, so all you have is wishful thinking and assumption.

 

There's also the point (and it is valid) that his awful offensive production would drag his overall value down, at least per the WAR measurement. You can't say from one side of your mouth that we're overvaluing offense while trying to use WAR to prove your point then disregard the importance WAR itself gives to offense. Be consistent.

[Dojji]

I am consistent. I was separating oWAR and dWAR. Crisp's overall WAR in 07 was 4.1, 2.6 from defense. Getting half of that from an elite defensive prospect (say. 1.5) isn't that unreasonable. That's purely dWAR. It's been 4 years since Ross has beat that level of production if you combined both oWAR and dWAR.

 

And considering that you really have to absolutely suck eggs as an offensive player to pick up negative oWAR, it could stand up and is no greater of a risk than the pretty risky over-30 platoon power hitter (seriously, does NO ONE remember Tony Clark???) of the comfortable mediocricy of a guy like Sweeney.

 

Willy Taveras got a positive oWAR for a line that went .251 /.309/.296. I'm not sure how, but he did. We are NOT talking a high standard here.

[seabeachfred]

No you haven't. You used Coco's 2007 as a benchmark, which is fine, until you realize he was both a near-league average producer, and that he had an otherworldly defensive season.

 

The little of Lin you've watched doesn't justify equating his defense to either Ellsbury or Crisp himself, and there are no metrics to back this point up, so all you have is wishful thinking and assumption.

 

There's also the point (and it is valid) that his awful offensive production would drag his overall value down, at least per the WAR measurement. You can't say from one side of your mouth that we're overvaluing offense while trying to use WAR to prove your point then disregard the importance WAR itself gives to offense. Be consistent.

 

At least Dojji brought up a topic that could get us all involved in, and to me that's not bad. What is bad is the subject he was sponoring. Still, we all have our favorite prospects we like to push. By now everyone knows how enthusiastic I am about Ryan Lavarnway; I guess Lin pushes his buttons as well. What I do know is that I don't want any more Crisp eras out in CF. Yes, he could field with the best of them, but too many times I saw him waste away at the plate. Three years of miserable hitting and I don't think it covered for his brilliant defensive work in the outfield. He made too many outs and left too damn many men on base. Thank God for Ellsbury because we have a guy who can both field and hit.

[VA Sox Fan]

Pedy sounds too much like Pedo. Extra "d" is for the better.

 

I'm partial to Pedey. Peddy reads like Petty. IMO

[a700hitter]

Lin is never going to hold a starting OF position for any ML team, so I don't know how this could even be a discussion.

[Dojji]

By most standards, Crisp had one down year at the plate in 06 and was otherwise reasonably competent (if wildly streaky).

 

if Crisp wasn't your cup of tea you probably wouldn't like Lin because he's the same thing with less power. However, with metrics getting better about projecting what kind of value a player actually had you can start making cogent arguments about what to expect from defense-only outfielders and other such frivolities.

 

I do think Lin would be a better outfielder then either of McDonald or Sweeney, and would easily provide more overall value than either.

 

I also think that Vince Coleman is an interesting comparison to Lin. Shallow sabermetrics HATES Coleman. He never got on base that much and didn't have power at all. He also wasn't great as a defensive centerfielder -- in fact he compares unfavorably to Ellsbury as a defender. But there was value to Coleman even in a sabermetric framework. He made his daily bread as a speed burner and table-setter, living on his super-elite speed. Coleman was good for about a win over replacement in any given year on the basis of his offense, with a couple outliers in either direction. Yes, even with the non-ideal OBP situation. OBP is a very important number, but it isn't everything.

 

Lin isn't as fast as Coleman. Who is? But he is as fast as Ellsbury. Lin has elite speed. He has the speed to steal 50+ bases if he gets on base enough. He's a player who could make a living playing what Valentine plays "real baseball" and possibly turn that into wins over replacement on offense. Combined with the defense Coleman never had, you could theorize a useful player out of Lin -- if you were willing to stay out of the faux-sabermetric OBP-driven pigeonhole and look at the whole gamet of possible sources of value.

[Emmz]

Its Dojji guys, come on. Just might has well give up, he's a lost cause.

[SoxSport]

Didn't we hear about this "run prevention" nonsense before the 2010 season when Ellsbury was moved to left field to "save his legs"' date=' one of the dumbest things Epstein and Francona did among their host of dumb things. It turned out Ells got knocked out of action and missed the whole season, Cameron in center was a disaster and got hurt too. We cannot afford to carry three weak bats in a lineup in my opinion. One reason is that with our questionable pitching we need every bat we can get in the lineup. Iglesias might make it this year sometime but those two other guys, one is a reserve and the other a mnor leaguer. Leave well enough alone I say----put the best nine players out there and hope they do their jobs and that the pitching does better than it did last year.[/quote']

 

That wasn't run prevention. It was a GM showing his baseball ignorance.

[SCM33]

The run prevention year was a cover up for "bridge year".

[User Name]

I am consistent. I was separating oWAR and dWAR. Crisp's overall WAR in 07 was 4.1, 2.6 from defense. Getting half of that from an elite defensive prospect (say. 1.5) isn't that unreasonable. That's purely dWAR. It's been 4 years since Ross has beat that level of production if you combined both oWAR and dWAR.

 

And considering that you really have to absolutely suck eggs as an offensive player to pick up negative oWAR, it could stand up and is no greater of a risk than the pretty risky over-30 platoon power hitter (seriously, does NO ONE remember Tony Clark???) of the comfortable mediocricy of a guy like Sweeney.

 

Willy Taveras got a positive oWAR for a line that went .251 /.309/.296. I'm not sure how, but he did. We are NOT talking a high standard here.

 

Exactly the point. It's not about separating dWar and oWar, but rather the wins as a whole. That year, his overall WAR was 0.9, and Lin's offensive production is unlikely to be much better than that, however, Taveras stole 68 bases last year, a feat Lin would never be able to replicate.

 

And just because he could have an overall WAR that is not negative doesn't make him a viable starting option for this team, specially considering every other option could have a better overall WAR, which is why i say you're not consistent, and i'd like to see you disprove that point.

[User Name]

That wasn't run prevention. It was a GM showing his baseball ignorance.

 

This is laughable, and unsurprisingly so.

[Dojji]

Exactly the point. It's not about separating dWar and oWar' date=' but rather the wins as a whole. That year, his overall WAR was 0.9, and Lin's offensive production is unlikely to be much better than that, however, Taveras stole 68 bases last year, a feat Lin would never be able to replicate.[/quote']

 

Actually, Lin's got the plus speed tool he needs to steal, maybe not 68 bases, but a significant number. His stolen base numbers and rates in the minors compare favorably with Ellsbury's in less time on base. He's not going to be an offensive juggernaut but let's not downplay the things he does do well. This kid can fly.

 

I wouldn't expect him to be a smart enough baserunner on the first go to steal 68, since there's a lot of timing and thinking that goes into that beyond just raw speed, and that takes experience to master, but a solid 30-40 is easily within Lin's reach this year if he gets 300-400 at bats. Every speed measurement I've seen compares him directly, and favorably, with Jacoby. Point being he can definitely use his wheels to create runs for this team, especially if he's well coached and a quick study on the basepaths.

 

Also, again, Lin has the kind of actual defensive ability that you promote a speedy guy like Taveras in the hopes he'll learn. What I've seen myself, and all the scouting reports I've read, suggest that it's not a leap of faith to promote this kid in the hopes that Lin will learn to use his elite wheels to master the outfield defensively. That stuff is already there for him.

 

If he gets anywhere near positive oWAR -- which with his speed is not hard -- I'd expect at least one win over replacement from dWAR and an overall WAR in the 1-2 range. That compares directly with Ross and is far better than anything Sweeney is likely to do, and is enough value to merit a direct consideration for roster spot regardless of gaudy offensive numbers -- IF the defense holds up.

 

And just because he could have an overall WAR that is not negative doesn't make him a viable starting option for this team, specially considering every other option could have a better overall WAR, which is why i say you're not consistent, and i'd like to see you disprove that point.

 

It's not about a WAR that is not negative. It's about a WAR that has a puncher's chance to beat out Cody Ross's 1.2-1.6 range. If you can get a win over replacement from his glove, then all he has to do is play up to about his AAA level and you should be coming close.

 

That said I do recognize that it would be an incredibly ballsy move and is unlikely to happen this year. This front office doesn't ACTUALLY trust the numbers and sabermetrics as much as people think and they're almost paralytically subservient to fan opinion. No one on this team has enough internal testosterone to bench Cody Ross (a potential 20 HR guy) in favor of a guy who gains his wins above replacement almost entirely on defense.

 

My only point is that it may have worked if they did.

[Dojji]

This is laughable' date=' and unsurprisingly so.[/quote']

 

Actually there's something to what he said. Their "run prevention" amounted to picking up a handsy shortstop that was feeble in the range department and two different catchers each with some real holes behind the dish. These were critical up the middle positions that if you really believed in preventing runs, you would have picked up players that favored defense even if it cost you some runs on offense -- and hope that players like Beltre, Gonzo, Youk, Papi, could pick you up in the middle of the lineup and the improved pitching staff gave you a better differential.

 

The last time we were a really great run prevention team was Coco's epic year in 2007, which was also Lugo's best year as a Red Sox at short (he was fumbling, and he didn't hit, but he WAS rangy that year). They went away from that and tried to pretend they hadn't.

[User Name]

Actually' date=' Lin's got the plus speed tool he needs to steal, maybe not 68 bases, but a significant number. His stolen base numbers and rates in the minors compare favorably with Ellsbury's in less time on base. He's not going to be an offensive juggernaut but let's not downplay the things he does do well. This kid can fly.[/quote']

 

He's not as fast as Taveras, and his good SB numbers are accompanied by a decent OBP in the Minors.

 

There are only a couple of guys who can steal while having minimal on-base skills, and Lin is not one of them.

 

I wouldn't expect him to be a smart enough baserunner on the first go to steal 68, since there's a lot of timing and thinking that goes into that beyond just raw speed, and that takes experience to master, but a solid 30-40 is easily within Lin's reach this year if he gets 300-400 at bats. Every speed measurement I've seen compares him directly, and favorably, with Jacoby. Point being he can definitely use his wheels to create runs for this team, especially if he's well coached and a quick study on the basepaths.

 

But he doesn't have the baserunning ability Ellsbury had in the minors. There's a lot of assumption here.

 

Also, again, Lin has the kind of actual defensive ability that you promote a speedy guy like Taveras in the hopes he'll learn. What I've seen myself, and all the scouting reports I've read, suggest that it's not a leap of faith to promote this kid in the hopes that Lin will learn to use his elite wheels to master the outfield defensively. That stuff is already there for him.

 

Taveras didn't work out so well, and he's a pretty good comparison to Lin. Absolutely brutal at the plate to the point where it underminded the baserunning and defense. What's the point here?

 

Also, you keep mentioning his "elite" defense and speed, but where are the scouting reports or numbers that back this up?

 

What i've read about him talks about very good speed and great defense chops, but not the once-in-a-generation tools you're talking about,

 

If he gets anywhere near positive oWAR -- which with his speed is not hard -- I'd expect at least one win over replacement from dWAR and an overall WAR in the 1-2 range. That compares directly with Ross and is far better than anything Sweeney is likely to do, and is enough value to merit a direct consideration for roster spot regardless of gaudy offensive numbers -- IF the defense holds up.

 

Based on what? What makes you think he can put up a positive oWar in the Majors? And based on what information do you assume that he can be a better package than Sweeney? The "if" the defense holds up line is exactly the point, and maybe the defense isn't as good as you advertise anyway. Let's stay realistic here.

 

It's not about a WAR that is not negative. It's about a WAR that has a puncher's chance to beat out Cody Ross's 1.2-1.6 range. If you can get a win over replacement from his glove, then all he has to do is play up to about his AAA level and you should be coming close.

 

Doubtful, at best. And it's safe to expect Ross' WAR to improve last year in a ballpark that's better suited to his skills anyways.

 

That said I do recognize that it would be an incredibly ballsy move and is unlikely to happen this year. This front office doesn't ACTUALLY trust the numbers and sabermetrics as much as people think and they're almost paralytically subservient to fan opinion. No one on this team has enough internal testosterone to bench Cody Ross (a potential 20 HR guy) in favor of a guy who gains his wins above replacement almost entirely on defense.

 

Lots of conjecture here. And also, apparently they do trust numbers and sabermetrics a lot more than you say, which is why Lin will not become a starting OF on this team, because it doesn't make any sense.

 

My only point is that it may have worked if they did.

 

What point?

[User Name]

Actually there's something to what he said. Their "run prevention" amounted to picking up a handsy shortstop that was feeble in the range department and two different catchers each with some real holes behind the dish. These were critical up the middle positions that if you really believed in preventing runs, you would have picked up players that favored defense even if it cost you some runs on offense -- and hope that players like Beltre, Gonzo, Youk, Papi, could pick you up in the middle of the lineup and the improved pitching staff gave you a better differential.

 

The last time we were a really great run prevention team was Coco's epic year in 2007, which was also Lugo's best year as a Red Sox at short (he was fumbling, and he didn't hit, but he WAS rangy that year). They went away from that and tried to pretend they hadn't.

 

They signed the best SS available, best CF available (you just said they didn't trust the numbers and sabermetrics, then made a move to replace Ellsbury from the CF spot after an atrocious defensive season-per sabermetrics, just fyi), best 3B available and best pitcher available.

 

The only true hole they had was at Catcher, and that corresponds to the Sox' philosophy of not putting a lot of weight into C defense. An incorrect one, but a philosophy nonetheless.

[Dojji]

What i've read about him talks about very good speed and great defense chops, but not the once-in-a-generation tools you're talking about,

 

OK, let me ask you this directly:

 

Have you seen Che-Hsuan Lin in action in a regular game?

[ORS]

OK, let me ask you this directly:

 

Have you seen Che-Hsuan Lin in action in a regular game?

Have you? And, more importantly, even if you have, do you have years of scouting service to make an accurate evaluation of his skillset? You are an admitted new-ish fan of the team, and one on a rather constrained budget. I think it is safe to assume, with what you have shared here, that you do not have extensive experience watching the Sox minor leaguers in action, and certainly not enough to make credible assessments of their skill level in a general sense (ie how their speed grades relative to the other talents out there).

[Dojji]

They signed the best SS available' date='[/quote']

 

The best offensive SS available. I noted at the time that his range, the most important attribute for a shortstop, was very mediocre. I was shouted down because Scutaro was well known and liked and people were convinced that good hands and a good quick bat could be enough.

 

Which it could, and for the most part it was, except for the fact that that's not really run prevention is it? Marco Scutaro contributed -0.9 overall defensive wins to this team despite being an overall plus 3.9 win player over those 2 years. Which is fine, but that's at shortstop, the most or second most important defensive position where defense is more important and offense less.

 

(not to mention the fact that the Red Sox never actually made the playoffs with Marco Scutaro at shortstop -- the Red Sox! I consider that telling.)

 

best CF available (you just said they didn't trust the numbers and sabermetrics, then made a move to replace Ellsbury from the CF spot after an atrocious defensive season-per sabermetrics, just fyi),

 

The most important number for Mike Cameron at the time was 37, and they ignored that number.

 

best 3B available

 

Granted, and I was outright wrong about Adrian Beltre, I'll cop to that. They were right to sign Adrian Beltre and I was dead, dead wrong. Fenway played to his strengths and limited his weaknesses enormously, and another hitter's park in Arlington has the same effect. That was a man that needed to get out of Seattle in the worst way.

 

and best pitcher available.

 

Ehhh. There were plenty of warning flags on Lackey. They just chose to ignore them. That said he still was a net positive that first year so I'm holding out some hope for when the man gets healthy.

 

The only true hole they had was at Catcher, and that corresponds to the Sox' philosophy of not putting a lot of weight into C defense. An incorrect one, but a philosophy nonetheless.

 

IMHO part of the problem is that it's really hard to qualify the value of a good defensive catcher. Catching value is where baseball is at its most intangible. SO if you're going to try to run based on quantifiable stats, the best way to hedge your bets is to get a good offensive guy and hope that whatever holes he has are countered by the bat.

 

It's not so much failing to recognize the importance of a defensive catcher as it is throwing up your hands, recognizing that there's no easy way to tell what the most important facet of defensive catcherwork actually is, and just bringing in a guy who can bury whatever deficiencies he has in good offense.

 

The problem is that they're used to that guy being Varitek, and he answers all that intangible stuff in a way that can give a false positive to that kind of theory. VMart, Salty, and eventually Lavarnway, are all going to have more holes for their bats to atone for than Tek did. Maybe they'll learn the same way Varitek did -- he wasn't actually a great defensive catcher on day 1 after all, he was just smart and prepared to learn. One might hope that one of Salty and Lavs will be as prepared.

[Dojji]

Have you? And' date=' more importantly, even if you have, do you have years of scouting service to make an accurate evaluation of his skillset? You are an admitted new-ish fan of the team, and one on a rather constrained budget. I think it is safe to assume, with what you have shared here, that you do not have extensive experience watching the Sox minor leaguers in action, and certainly not enough to make credible assessments of their skill level in a general sense (ie how their speed grades relative to the other talents out there).[/quote']

 

All accurate, but the point at the moment being, you clearly have not seen much of Lin. I haven't seen a ton either but everything I have seen puts him right among the top defenders at the centerfield position.

 

This isn't Tug Hulett or Daniel Nava, Kason Gabbard, or some other kid that I'm championing because I think he has half a chance to be someone's bench player. This is a kid who deserves a HECK of a lot more attention than he's getting as a legit starting centerfielder. Especially considering his age and the level he plays at.

 

(incidnetally, Gameday Audio package gives you access to a lot of minor league stuff, including some video of the occasional live game on milb.com. It's an interesting perk, especially considering the original package was so cheap, and can fill a lot of dead time).

[User Name]

There's no point in arguing about either issue anymore. You just don't have a leg to stand on, but keep on hangin' on. Good luck with that.