Red Sox 2012 Spring Training Thread.

[SoxFanForsyth]

When Bard was in the pen' date=' he came into the Spring Training games pumping gas. What other pitches does Melancon have? Any secondary pitches that are plus pitches? Jacko posted a while back that his velocity is not that great for a late inning guy.[/quote']

 

Everything I've heard about him revolves around his knuckle curve. I've heard good things about that. Fangraphs has him adding a + cutter last season, and then his fastball averages around 92-93 mph.

 

Not going to blow you away by any means. Then again, neither would Aceves's stuff last year, but he was a beast.

[Emmz]

The way I say it, Beckett could regress some, but Lester IMO should improve some. Bucholz will actually be here, and the last 2 spots just have to do better than Lackey and Wake.

 

Not very sure about the 'pen, and offensively I could see a regression from Ells and Ortiz, but Ross is a huge plus over Drew and Co.

 

Crawford should beat out his .695 OPS, and if this team has a month as bad as last September or starts off as poorly as last April, I will be shocked.

 

This team is going to win at least 90-95 games.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The way I say it, Beckett could regress some, but Lester IMO should improve some. Bucholz will actually be here, and the last 2 spots just have to do better than Lackey and Wake.

 

Not very sure about the 'pen, and offensively I could see a regression from Ells and Ortiz, but Ross is a huge plus over Drew and Co.

 

Crawford should beat out his .695 OPS, and if this team has a month as bad as last September or starts off as poorly as last April, I will be shocked.

 

This team is going to win at least 90-95 games.

 

Get out of my head.

[Elktonnick]

True. 90-91. Good change.

 

You may not have caught his post game interview but he was working on his change. He said he threw it around 15 times. One wouldn't expect his velocity to be up now in any case.

[a700hitter]

Everything I've heard about him revolves around his knuckle curve. I've heard good things about that. Fangraphs has him adding a + cutter last season, and then his fastball averages around 92-93 mph.

 

Not going to blow you away by any means. Then again, neither would Aceves's stuff last year, but he was a beast.

A knuckle curve? I wonder if he learned that pitch from Mussina when he was with the Yankees.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Seriously, though. Here are the facts about last year to back what Emmz just said.

 

1. The RF position last season OPS'd .652. Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney can hit to the back of their baseball cards and tack on 100 points to that OPS, and I'm a believer that Ross will get the majority of the playing time and that Fenway will suit his swing well. So a .760-.780 OPS from Ross is reasonable IMO.

 

2. By no means was I for trading Scutaro now that we didn't get Oswalt, but having said that, he only played 113 games last season. Keep in mind - we're comparing apples to apples, so when you say "Aviles isn't as good as Scutaro", he doesn't have to be if we want to replicate 2011 offense. The SS position OPS'd .730 last year. Aviles should match that.

 

3. Ellsbury and Ortiz will surely regress, but the regression will be supplemented by progression from Crawford and RF. It's not at all unreasonable to expect the offense this year to be a wash with the offense last year, potentially even a little better considering the dropoff in power from Gonzo, the aberration of a year from Crawford, and the horrific RF that we had.

 

4. Pitching, pitching, pitching. Last year, Weiland, Miller, Wakefield, Lackey, and Bedard combined to start 76 games and threw 415 IP. They also combined for a 5.83 ERA. That's 47% of our starts right there that will be replaced by Buchholz, Bard, and likely Doubront.

 

If they (along with some spot starters) can combine their starts to even a 4.50 ERA, that shaves 1.33 points off of the back end of the rotation. But I truly think they will exceed that number.

 

Regardless, I think this team is in better shape than the team was last season, even the team that went 82-51 through August 31st, and because of that, I think this is a 94-96 win team.

[Emmz]

I think Ross is a huge sleeper. I seriously could see him having an .800 OPS in the AL East coming away from the NL West (and even better, over 100 games of SF, LA and SD).

[jopete19]

The replay of today's game is on the MLB Network at 8et.

 

I really think Ross was the best pick up of the offseason. I think he'll surprise people. As for the SS position Aviles will do just fine. I have watched him in KC and when he got sent down in Omaha, although he got sent down he is a good 3rd basemen. He has a lot of power. I think one of the major reasons he got sent down was to get the Royals big name 3rd basemen some experience during the end of the season, Moustakas.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think Ross is a huge sleeper. I seriously could see him having an .800 OPS in the AL East coming away from the NL West (and even better' date=' over 100 games of SF, LA and SD).[/quote']

 

I agree, and actually mentioned this a while ago, but I am trying not to be overly optimistic.

 

I think this is an extremely underrated team by most people, and to add on to that, I don't think I've ever seen a team this motivated. Some people don't think it matters, but I do. There's something to be said about playing with a chip on your shoulder.

[a700hitter]

I agree, and actually mentioned this a while ago, but I am trying not to be overly optimistic.

 

I think this is an extremely underrated team by most people, and to add on to that, I don't think I've ever seen a team this motivated. Some people don't think it matters, but I do. There's something to be said about playing with a chip on your shoulder.

Ross can have some incredible hot streaks where he is white hot. Unfortunately, those streaks don't last long, and when they are over he is not very good at all. In that regard, he reminds me of Brian Daubach. When he was hot, he looked like an All Star, but when he went cold, he looked like he had been struck blind.

[a700hitter]

I like the Ross pickup, but I think his highest and best use is as a Right handed platoon player. He is not a very good every day player.

[a700hitter]

Lin didn't look so good in the OF today. He is just minor league filler.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Ross can have some incredible hot streaks where he is white hot. Unfortunately' date=' those streaks don't last long, and when they are over he is not very good at all. In that regard, he reminds me of Brian Daubach. When he was hot, he looked like an All Star, but when he went cold, he looked like he had been struck blind.[/quote']

 

I don't know - I think he would be an above average starting RF.

 

In his 3 seasons that he played over 140 games (i.e., not a platoon situation), he hit .267/.320/.455 and averaged 20 HR, 75 RBI. Those were all seasons in Florida.

 

His numbers were suppressed by the NL West stadiums. I think a return to his Florida numbers can be reasonably expected, maybe with a few more doubles and around a .790-.800 OPS.

 

It also shows that he's a guy who really thrives on consistent playing time. During those 3 seasons, he averaged 150 games per season, and that's when he put up the best numbers, not only in HR and RBI type numbers that increase with playing time, but also in OPS and Average.

[a700hitter]

I don't know - I think he would be an above average starting RF.

 

In his 3 seasons that he played over 140 games (i.e., not a platoon situation), he hit .267/.320/.455 and averaged 20 HR, 75 RBI. Those were all seasons in Florida.

 

His numbers were suppressed by the NL West stadiums. I think a return to his Florida numbers can be reasonably expected, maybe with a few more doubles and around a .790-.800 OPS.

 

It also shows that he's a guy who really thrives on consistent playing time. During those 3 seasons, he averaged 150 games per season, and that's when he put up the best numbers, not only in HR and RBI type numbers that increase with playing time, but also in OPS and Average.

I've watched a lot of Ross. My niece was a Marlins season ticket holder and a big fan of Ross as is my Sister in Law. The guy is hot and cold. He'll have his moments where he'll look like an All Star. If he plays 140 games for the Sox, he'll be average. If he platoons, he could have an above average season stat-wise.

[jung]

Well don't we think that Ross will only play full time until CC comes back and then platoon in RF after that? Maybe it was just me thinking he would be platooning after CC's return.

[Thunder]

It's BACK!

 

I'm listening to Mariners-Athletics ball on Gameday Audio and I hadn't realized just how much I'd missed it.

 

Full year of baseball audio, any team any time. Best $15 I've ever spent.

 

I just spent that for the iPad app.

Sox looked okay today against the Twins. I know why some of these guys are in the minors.

[SoxSport]

Just saw Lars Anderson hit a salami. Looks like he's bulked up quite a bit. Hmmm...

Nice swing. Looks in a groove, keeping his eye on the ball. We'll see how this plays out.

 

Iglesias lines out to CF. Nice out.

 

JetBlue park? Isn't that the Yankees color?

[seabeachfred]

Last year, the Sox only put up 13 runs (on 6 hits, no less) on the Huskies, and they were shut out for the first 3 innings (while all the starters were in).

 

It's a great start, like everyone has been saying. After seeing how piss poor this team came out of the game last season, and how it ultimately cost them a run at a WS, I'm definitely happy to see the starters getting good swings.

 

I think you may be speaking for more than just yourself Forsyth. Today while my wife and I spend the day at Disneyland I had her look up the score of our first "real" Grapefruit game and saw us come out ahead 8-3. It may be only a practice game but I remember all too well what went down last year when we lost 12 of those games in a row. Now it comes out that the team might not have been as prepared as they should have been, so this is just good news no matter how you look at it.

 

Confession: I was always worried sick when we had a lead in the late innings, afraid that Francona would fine a way to mess it up. This year, at least for me, seeing Valentine in charge says to me that we have a guy who knows how to run a game from the dugout. If he can do what Francona did in the clubhouse (before last year) and handle the press as he did, Bobby will do just fine.

[seabeachfred]

Lol' date=' you're such a hypocrite. For one, I clearly said I didn't care about the fact it was against NE and spring training. I just liked the fact that we scored a lot of runs. How does that translate into WS Champs? Why don't you take your own advice and http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/16239-cut-crap-2.html. I talk baseball and you start to annoy people by trying to be as pessimistic as possible. You're bringing absolutely no substance to this [b']RED SOX[/b] thread. Go have a one man party in your Yankees threads and no one will bother you. And I will not take a midol so don't ask. Good day sir.

 

RS305, Jacko is a good foil for all of us because he tried to keep us honest and not get carried away even though it's not his job to try and judge how we should act when the Sox turn in a good effort. I like the exchanges I have with him, but keep in mind he is a Yankee fan. He does not want our team to do well, not in ST or in the regular season. I just think wants to throw some cold water on our enthusiasm but if we hold our ground he will fail in that effort. Besides, I think it's cool to have a diehard Yankee fan on this board to duel with. I would like to see Yankee fan Meh post more here as well.

[seabeachfred]

Neither Bard or Doubront has any major league track record as a starter. Bard has elite stuff' date=' but the only record he has as a starter in the professional ranks is as a failure. We have no basis for predicting their 2012 performances as starters. The best we can do is hope for the best, but I agree with Emmz. My mind doesn't spin in the direction of 15 win seasons with sub 4 ERA. Hell, I'd be okay with 200 innings and 15 win seasons with sub 4 ERA's from out top 3 guys. I think they can do better, but not a whole lot better and they are All Stars. I spent too many years of my youth in the 60's, 70's and 80's having expectations like that for guys who I can't even remember today. I can't go down that road.[/quote']

 

You can't go down that road Ted and I won't go down that road. Personally, I have no clue how Doubrant and Bard will do, and that includes Aceves and Cook, who, BTW, I haven't heard much about lately. I'm keeping my eyes on Beckett, Lester and Buchholz because the fate of our pitching goes through them. If they pitch up to their capabilities and stay healthy (fingers tightly crossed), then in my opinion we really only one of our other two starters to fashion a decent season and play Russian roulette with the fifth man. I would suspect the No. 5 man might change periodically during the season unless we just get lucky. What did you think of Beckett today? Two innings, no runs. Seems not bad for a first appearance. As for Miller, I'm just going to get all worked up over that yet.

[seabeachfred]

In one ear, out the other. I've made my case. I shouldn't have to explain it to you several times over, but I'll do it one last time. It's unrealistic to hold out hope because he's been in the league for a long time now. There's a point where its unreasonable to hold out hope. If Tim Tebow still sucks at passing a couple years from now, I will say that the hope is gone. Andrew Miller is now 27 years old and hasn't gained command of his pitches.

 

If he was 20 it would be different.

 

Emmz, I happen to agree with you that Miller may be a lost cause. I cringed every time I saw him pitch last year and he has failed with a number of teams and failed badly. However, there is always that possibility he could find it---slim as that may be. Remember a guy named Sandy Koufax? He was 36-40 his first six years and most of the time he had trouble finding the plate. A tweak here and there by a catcher named Norm Sherry and from 1961 to 1966 he was the best pitcher in baseball and turned out to be one of the all time greats and the youngest player ever to make the Hall of Fame.

 

Miller does have good stuff--control is bad, mechanics worse, and I don't think the guy is too swift upstairs when the going gets tough on the mound. Bob McClure thinks he can help him. Again, I don't think so, but suppose he has five or six good outings this Spring. Maybe as ridiculous as it sounds to both of us, he does turn a corner. It has happened before.

[User Name]

Emmz, I happen to agree with you that Miller may be a lost cause. I cringed every time I saw him pitch last year and he has failed with a number of teams and failed badly. However, there is always that possibility he could find it---slim as that may be. Remember a guy named Sandy Koufax? He was 36-40 his first six years and most of the time he had trouble finding the plate. A tweak here and there by a catcher named Norm Sherry and from 1961 to 1966 he was the best pitcher in baseball and turned out to be one of the all time greats and the youngest player ever to make the Hall of Fame.

 

Miller does have good stuff--control is bad, mechanics worse, and I don't think the guy is too swift upstairs when the going gets tough on the mound. Bob McClure thinks he can help him. Again, I don't think so, but suppose he has five or six good outings this Spring. Maybe as ridiculous as it sounds to both of us, he does turn a corner. It has happened before.

 

How about this guy?

 

Similar situation, and injury-ridden at the beginning of his career, to boot.

 

It's not wise to expect Miller to live up to his billing, but it's not wise to completely rule it out either.

 

Baseball is a fickle sport, all that needs to happen is for something to click for a pitcher or hitter. Sometimes it just takes a lot longer for some to feel the click, and sometimes it never happens at all.

[Spudboy]

The way I say it, Beckett could regress some, but Lester IMO should improve some. Bucholz will actually be here, and the last 2 spots just have to do better than Lackey and Wake.

 

Not very sure about the 'pen, and offensively I could see a regression from Ells and Ortiz, but Ross is a huge plus over Drew and Co.

 

Crawford should beat out his .695 OPS, and if this team has a month as bad as last September or starts off as poorly as last April, I will be shocked.

 

This team is going to win at least 90-95 games.

 

YES! Someone with the balls to be optimistic! Not sure about Ells regressing or Ortiz for that matter. But I agree with the bulk of your post.

[Spudboy]

I think Ross is a huge sleeper. I seriously could see him having an .800 OPS in the AL East coming away from the NL West (and even better' date=' over 100 games of SF, LA and SD).[/quote']

 

As usual I will post no data in support of my opinion. However, my gut tells me that Ross will be a real contributor. I like his game. I think he will play a very good RF and will have some big "clutch" at bats. Yaeh,yeah, clutch does not exist. Lol.

[Spudboy]

RS305' date=' Jacko is a good foil for all of us because he tried to keep us honest and not get carried away even though it's not his job to try and judge how we should act when the Sox turn in a good effort. I like the exchanges I have with him, but keep in mind he is a Yankee fan. He does not want our team to do well, not in ST or in the regular season. I just think wants to throw some cold water on our enthusiasm but if we hold our ground he will fail in that effort. Besides, I think it's cool to have a diehard Yankee fan on this board to duel with. I would like to see Yankee fan Meh post more here as well.[/quote']

 

Meh is always around. The guy you want to see post more is y228. A nice guy that knows his stuff and is never confrontational. And now I will stop saying anything nice about any Yankee fan!

[a700hitter]

Emmz, I happen to agree with you that Miller may be a lost cause. I cringed every time I saw him pitch last year and he has failed with a number of teams and failed badly. However, there is always that possibility he could find it---slim as that may be. Remember a guy named Sandy Koufax? He was 36-40 his first six years and most of the time he had trouble finding the plate. A tweak here and there by a catcher named Norm Sherry and from 1961 to 1966 he was the best pitcher in baseball and turned out to be one of the all time greats and the youngest player ever to make the Hall of Fame.

 

Miller does have good stuff--control is bad, mechanics worse, and I don't think the guy is too swift upstairs when the going gets tough on the mound. Bob McClure thinks he can help him. Again, I don't think so, but suppose he has five or six good outings this Spring. Maybe as ridiculous as it sounds to both of us, he does turn a corner. It has happened before.

Koufax was retired by age 31. He turned the corner much prior to age 27-- Miller's age. I hold out little hope that he can be anything more than a mopup guy and spot starter.

[a700hitter]

From the Herald:

Closer Andrew Bailey (lat) had a “very good bullpen,” according to Valentine. The manager, though, doesn’t know when Bailey will be ready to pitch in a Grapefruit League game. . . .

[a700hitter]

Tonight Buchholz and Padilla are scheduled to pitch.

 

After watching yesterday's game against the Twins, I wonder if the Twins would be interested in moving Liriano. He would be a nice addition.

[Emmz]

How about this guy?

 

Similar situation, and injury-ridden at the beginning of his career, to boot.

 

It's not wise to expect Miller to live up to his billing, but it's not wise to completely rule it out either.

 

Baseball is a fickle sport, all that needs to happen is for something to click for a pitcher or hitter. Sometimes it just takes a lot longer for some to feel the click, and sometimes it never happens at all.

 

Yeah, every sport is a fickle sport. I could sit here and list a lot of late-bloomers from a lot of sports, but that's all just not realistic. What's he going to learn that he obviously couldn't in little league, high school and the minors? Miller stinks and he's probably never going to reach his potential.

[Emmz]

Tonight Buchholz and Padilla are scheduled to pitch.

 

After watching yesterday's game against the Twins, I wonder if the Twins would be interested in moving Liriano. He would be a nice addition.

 

They will get s***-value for him, so I doubt it. They should have dealt him after his good year a couple of years ago.