Red Sox 2012 fearless prediction thread

[SCM33]

This right here... I didn't think of it that way but it's true.

 

Expect a backlash though

 

Haha.....you usually disagree with most of the things I say......but the thing is, I havent changed my tone one bit.

 

The things that I say while brash and sometimes negetive, are not all that false if you actually look at what I am saying.

 

This team is not 1 starting pitcher away.....they are a SP (if 1 of Bard/Aceves is in the rotation), 2/3 BP arms (if Bard and Aceves are both in the rotation) and SS away right now.

 

They need to fill out the rotation, if they got Oswalt, thats a HUGE difference. If they add someone like Jackson....then they have to replace the production of Aceves AND Bard in the BP because 1 of them will be in the rotation. What I mean by that.....is that by subtracting 1 of them, you will have to add at least 2 arms in the BP because the combo of Bard or Aceves + a FA BP arm will not equal what Bard and Aceves gave us last year in the pen. Aceves was really great, and saved us a ton last year. Who fills that role if he is in the rotation?

 

Also, you have to factor in that we will not be getting the same production out of SS that Scutaro/Lowrie gave us with Aviles/Punto.

 

We are worse right now than we were, and what we were....was a third place team. Youkilis being healthy is offset by the production of SS and the holes in the rotation/bullpen.

 

Crawford will be better (we think)....but he cant pitch and right now, and hes not healthy.

Youkilis will be healhty....but he cant pitch.

Gonzalez will be healhty....he cant pitch either.

 

Our offense was fine last year, it was fine 2 years ago, it will be fine this year.....but their pitching will be the Achilles heal.

[Palodios]

This team is not 1 starting pitcher away.....they are a SP (if 1 of Bard/Aceves is in the rotation)' date=' 2/3 BP arms (if Bard and Aceves are both in the rotation) and SS away right now.[/quote']

 

You're assuming a worst case scenario here. If they get a starting pitcher, and one of the players from the garbage pile pans out, they have a very good rotation, and their top five relievers are Bailey, Melancon, Bard, Aceves, Morales, which is much better than people are making it out to be. If the the Red Sox get a #4 SP, they have about ten different options at #5. Shortstop is a crapshoot, but I think this team is a lot more complete than you make it out to be.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Fearless prediction? Nope....they are a third place team. Evidence? They finished in third place the last two years with better teams than this one right now.

 

Could it change? Yeah, but they need to do something about it.....and the offseason clock is ticking......

 

They finished 3rd in 2010 based on injuries and you can possibly argue that we have a better team now than 2010. We finished 3rd last year off some ********. It took the Rays luck to even get 2nd place. Regardless of the standings, we're still better than the Rays. A pitcher would be very nice for the Sox but we're not in deep s*** like everyone makes us out to be.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Haha.....you usually disagree with most of the things I say......but the thing is, I havent changed my tone one bit.

 

The things that I say while brash and sometimes negetive, are not all that false if you actually look at what I am saying.

 

This team is not 1 starting pitcher away.....they are a SP (if 1 of Bard/Aceves is in the rotation), 2/3 BP arms (if Bard and Aceves are both in the rotation) and SS away right now.

 

They need to fill out the rotation, if they got Oswalt, thats a HUGE difference. If they add someone like Jackson....then they have to replace the production of Aceves AND Bard in the BP because 1 of them will be in the rotation. What I mean by that.....is that by subtracting 1 of them, you will have to add at least 2 arms in the BP because the combo of Bard or Aceves + a FA BP arm will not equal what Bard and Aceves gave us last year in the pen. Aceves was really great, and saved us a ton last year. Who fills that role if he is in the rotation?

 

Also, you have to factor in that we will not be getting the same production out of SS that Scutaro/Lowrie gave us with Aviles/Punto.

 

We are worse right now than we were, and what we were....was a third place team. Youkilis being healthy is offset by the production of SS and the holes in the rotation/bullpen.

 

Crawford will be better (we think)....but he cant pitch and right now, and hes not healthy.

Youkilis will be healhty....but he cant pitch.

Gonzalez will be healhty....he cant pitch either.

 

Our offense was fine last year, it was fine 2 years ago, it will be fine this year.....but their pitching will be the Achilles heal.

 

If they get Oswalt, Bard and Aceves remain BP arms, but if they get Jackson one of them will be in the rotation? That doesn't add up. Let's not forget that Oswalt's health is a concern. Expect Bailey to have sufficient numbers as our closer next year.

 

Don't take offense to this but I'm just talking in general. All the s*** Scutaro got while on the Red Sox and now people make a scene once he's gone. He wasn't a Hanley Ramirez or a Troy Tulo. If we don't get a SS it's not the end of the world. What everyone wants here is a pitcher. Don't get me started with Lowrie. Talksox was calling for his head after his hot April. That month was a fluke.

 

You said it yourself, our offense will be fine this year. It was fine with Mr.Adequate, The LF bust, Darnell McDonald, and an injured Youk.

 

This team has potential.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

You're assuming a worst case scenario here. If they get a starting pitcher' date=' and one of the players from the garbage pile pans out, they have a very good rotation, and their top five relievers are Bailey, Melancon, Bard, Aceves, Morales, which is much better than people are making it out to be. If the the Red Sox get a #4 SP, they have about ten different options at #5. Shortstop is a crapshoot, but I think this team is a lot more complete than you make it out to be.[/quote']

 

This.

[Bellhorn04]

You're assuming a worst case scenario here. If they get a starting pitcher' date=' and one of the players from the garbage pile pans out, they have a very good rotation, and their top five relievers are Bailey, Melancon, Bard, Aceves, Morales, which is much better than people are making it out to be. If the the Red Sox get a #4 SP, they have about ten different options at #5. Shortstop is a crapshoot, but [b']I think this team is a lot more complete than you make it out to be.[/b]

 

Of course it is. I think a lot of Sox fans are just paranoid right now, and it's somewhat understandable, given the September meltdown and also the injury plagues of the last two years.

[User Name]

Of course it is. I think a lot of Sox fans are just paranoid right now' date=' and it's somewhat understandable, given the September meltdown and also the injury plagues of the last two years.[/quote']

 

Which was just that, a meltdown. It's a fluke.

 

I don't understand why people need to assume the worst possible scenario regarding the Sox underestimating the talent level of the team in the process. Realism is objective, not defeatist.

[iortiz]

Fearless? We are a mass of question marks.

 

If we get a solid SP, the scenario will be completely different.

 

As constructed, we are a 5-6 team on paper in the AL. As I said, a lot analysts put us in that place. I agree. Sorry but trying to be objective, I just do not see this team in POs. SCM33's opinion seems very realistic to me.

 

A lot question marks. Let's take a tour,

 

2 huge question marks in our rotation 4-5.

 

A whole mystery in our BP, specially in Bailey/Melancon (injury concerns/performance).

 

Can Youk and Buch be healthy the entire season?

 

Everybody assumes that Crawford will bounce back (I tend to think the same). He is between cottons right now. We need his production early in the season. When is he going to comeback? How long is he going to take to get hot?

 

Will Ortiz put the same numbers?

 

Are Punto/Aviles the solution?

 

Seems like Beckett, Lester, A-Gon, Peddy and Ells are only our sure bets.

 

Plus, The AL seems more competitive this year on paper than recent years.

 

Beyond the 2010 and 2011 outcomes we didn't have these amount of question marks/ red flags on paper and we failed.

 

Yes, these question marks could play in our favor. Nevertheless and beyond baseball, when you have this kind of uncertainty in your business, most of the times it doesn't work out. Some people doesn't see this kind of uncertainty that experts/analysts/casinos/polls and some posters around here see in this team. That give me hopes. We better bring this SP which was our #1 priority this offseason and for whatever reason hasn't been addressed yet. Sounds crazy but this SP could make the difference between go/no-go to POs. As E1 said, we will see.

[User Name]

Every team is a mass of question marks. But apparently, the only team whose question marks are going to necessarily turn out for the worst in every possible scenario are the Red Sox.

 

These are also predictions for a team whose 25-man roster is not decided yet. Once it is, we'll have a clearer picture of where they actually stand.

[jacksonianmarch]

Every team is a mass of question marks. But apparently, the only team whose question marks are going to necessarily turn out for the worst in every possible scenario are the Red Sox.

 

These are also predictions for a team whose 25-man roster is not decided yet. Once it is, we'll have a clearer picture of where they actually stand.

 

When your worst case happens 2 yrs in a row, then I think people get a little suspicious.

[iortiz]

Yup, All teams have QMs. IMO we have more, reason why I do not like the scenario. You do not like casinos/experts predictions but they see more question marks in our team, reason why they project us in this position. If I had to bet, I wouldn't put my money in this current Red Sox. We better bring the SP.

[User Name]

I understand that. However, radical changes have happened within the organization.

 

People can't talk from both sides of their mouth at the same time. Several fans (and even some analysts) contended that the Sox' inept medical team and awful on-field management cost them anywhere from 5 to 12 games per season.

 

How come the improvement on those areas is not factored in?

 

Also, objectively, it's almost impossible for whoever they have occupying the 4-5 rotation spots next year to do worse than Lackey/Wakefield/Miller/Matsuzaka.

 

Also, of course, there's the fact that the roster is not set in stone yet. An important factor.

[User Name]

Yup' date=' All teams have QMs. IMO we have more, reason why I do not like the scenario. You do not like casinos/experts predictions but they see more question marks in our team, reason why they project us in this position. If I had to bet, I wouldn't put my money in this current Red Sox. We better bring the SP.[/quote']

 

We were #1 in their rankings last season. Shows you about their "projections".

[iortiz]

Yup it has not set in stone yet, reason why I still have hopes.

 

Do not take me wrong, beyond how we face next Season, I'll support this team. You bet. If FO/Ben's strategy works out, I'll be the first in celebrate it.

 

I just don't feel comfortable with the current scenario, sorry.

[iortiz]

We were #1 in their rankings last season. Shows you about their "projections".

 

You are mixing things. One thing is a long projection (probabilities/odds) and another realities/outcome.

 

This thread is about projections. The reality could change dramatically for any team. That's other discussion. Nobody is disputing that.

[a700hitter]

Yup it has not set in stone yet, reason why I still have hopes.

 

Do not take me wrong, beyond how we face next Season, I'll support this team. You bet. If FO/Ben's strategy works it out, I'll be the first in celebrate it.

 

I just don't feel comfortable with the current scenario, sorry.

Neither do I.

[User Name]

You are mixing things. One thing is a long projection (probabilities/odds) and another realities/outcome.

 

This thread is about projections. The reality could change dramatically for any team. That's other discussion. Nobody is disputing that.

 

Hey you're the one mentioning oddmakers as some sort of source of information, and they are not a credible source.

[iortiz]

Hey you're the one mentioning oddmakers as some sort of source of information' date=' and they are not a credible source.[/quote']

 

yup, their predictions/probabilities/projections is a good thermometer in order to rate the strength/question marks of a team at the starting of a marathon-season like in MLB. That is what we are doing here; trying to predict. Their predictions say me that Los Astros have huge question marks (100/1) and Philli is who has less question marks in order to make the POS (11/2). Nevertheless, Still 11/2 (5.5/1) is a huge reward since it (predict who will win the WS) is still a LONG SHOT. Yup, their projections are not definitive, that's out of question, but are a good start/reference.

[User Name]

yup' date=' their predictions/probabilities/projections is a good thermometer in order to rate the strength/question marks of a team in the beginning of a marathon-season like in MLB. That is what we are doing here; try to predict. Their predictions say me that Los Astros have huge question marks (100/1) and that Philli is who has less question marks in order to make the POS (11/2). Nevertheless, Still 11/2 (5.5/1) is a huge reward since it (predict who will win the WS) is still a LONG SHOT. Yup, their projections are not definitive, that's out of question, but are a good start/reference.[/quote']

 

I would contend otherwise, but let's agree to disagree.

[MANNYHOF24]

The Red Sox will lose a game' date=' and the retards of talksox will s*** their pants and threaten to burn down Fenway.[/quote']

 

This

[TedWilliams101]

My prediction? The Red Sox finish 3rd in the division. Way way way too many holes on this team to compete with the Yankees and Rays. Lack of pitching depth is going to kill the team.

 

Beckett has another sub-par year with a 4.5+ ERA

Lester has 3-4ERA with 15 wins

Buccholz has a 4.0 ERA with under 15 wins

#4/5 starters change constantly throughout the season and lose them a lot of games

 

Pedroia has another solid season, Jacoby doesn't hit 30 HR, hits for .300, 80ish RBIs, 40+ steals. Agon hits 30HR, leads team in BA, drives in 100+, Ortiz has under 30HR, Youk misses a 3rd the season and performs below his career marks, the rest of the lineup doesn't add enough to make up for the lack of quality pitching. The bullpen falls apart as Bailey fails and loses the closer spot and Bard can't fill the role because he's stuck starting because the rotation is a mess. The team starts falling out of the Wild Card race by the beginning of September.

[iortiz]

Well Ted101, welcome to the dark side bandwagon ... Or should I say the realistic bandwagon?

[TedWilliams101]

Well Ted101' date=' welcome to the dark side bandwagon ... Or should I say the realistic bandwagon?[/quote']

 

I thought there were problems going in to last years club, especially with all the pitching question marks, and of course thought their April might do them in, and then didn't liked what I saw as they fell apart in September.

 

That team was the '98 Yankees compared to what we have right now. I don't believe in faith, I believe in reality...

[iortiz]

I thought there were problems going in to last years club, especially with all the pitching question marks, and of course thought their April might do them in, and then didn't liked what I saw as they fell apart in September.

 

That team was the '98 Yankees compared to what we have right now. I don't believe in faith, I believe in reality...

 

Agree. Hell, the more I try to analyse the more I have question marks about this team and I wonder what the hell are our FO's plans. Our team doesn't see solid thus far.

 

You haven't been around man, where have you been? you should post more often my friend. Hopefully everything is going alright with you and your family.

[TedWilliams101]

Agree. Hell, the more I try to analyse the more I have question marks about this team and I wonder what the hell our FO is planning. Our team doesn't see solid thus far.

 

You haven't been around man, where have you been? you should post more often my friend. Hopefully everything is going alright with you and your family.

 

Thanks for the support. Things are alright I suppose. I've been consumed by the NFL and the rest of my focus is for NHL and NBA. The way we finished the season + all the offseason crap has really turned me off of baseball. Everytime I watch another sport I wonder why they can't put a cap on MLB so it's no longer a joke. For all the praise that Theo got at times, the Rays have had practically as much success while playing with 75% less money. Meanwhile the Yankees will always be there because of $. I'm just so sick of it all. Get a freakin' cap already.

[iortiz]

Thanks for the support. Things are alright I suppose. I've been consumed by the NFL and the rest of my focus is for NHL and NBA. The way we finished the season + all the offseason crap has really turned me off of baseball. Everytime I watch another sport I wonder why they can't put a cap on MLB so it's no longer a joke. For all the praise that Theo got at times' date=' the Rays have had practically as much success while playing with 75% less money. Meanwhile the Yankees will always be there because of $. I'm just so sick of it all. Get a freakin' cap already.[/quote']

 

Great to hear that everything is alright. :thumbsup:

 

I do not follow NHL and since M. Jordan retired, I do not watch basquetball that much, regardless my favorite team was the Seatle Super Sonics where Shawn Kemp used to play. Since then, I like the Boston Celtics. I like NFL. I should follow your steps, I should enroll in other sports and wait till April. I watch soccer but only in weekends, anyway... Hopefully our FO brings for once and for all a goddamn pitcher and give us more chances to compete next season, we'll see.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Even as constructed we can beat the Rays and Yankees. Let's not act like we're fish out of water.

[iortiz]

Well, we have not won a year-series vs TB in 4-5 years or something, with arguably better teams, and Right now NY is above us IMO.

[TedWilliams101]

Even as constructed we can beat the Rays and Yankees. Let's not act like we're fish out of water.

 

Sox vs Rays:

2011: 6-12

2010: 7-11

2009: 9-9

 

Not exactly a great trend. I think we split the series with the Yankees, but I don't see us going anywhere near 12-6 against them like this past season. Even against Baltimore and the Jays last year we were just barely above .500.

[seabeachfred]

I thought there were problems going in to last years club, especially with all the pitching question marks, and of course thought their April might do them in, and then didn't liked what I saw as they fell apart in September.

 

That team was the '98 Yankees compared to what we have right now. I don't believe in faith, I believe in reality...

 

Ted----What went down last season caused one of the other boards I post on to split right down the middle with half of them leaving and forming another one. It all came down to what went down early last season so what you were thinking and believing was believed by a lot of other people as well. In fact if you remember we lost 12 staight games in ST and while people could say those games don't count in the standings, a very blase attitude seemed to develop and some of us called it a "culture of losing" that was established and it carried right over into the season (2-10). Francona under drugs for various illnesses and pains and going through a divorce was out of sorts from the beginning and coupled with his very weak ability as a field manager and strategist the team was in very poor hands.

 

Despite the streak some of the posters on that board who now post on here like Pumpsie, Muggah, Elktonnick, IPOT and myself warned that the team could go back into the tank at any time and one of us on July 26th of last year predicted they would and that they would collapse. Believe me it was not a stroke of genius by any means. The team even during their winning streak seemed distracted and not united at all. The other camp gave us all kinds of crap during our July hot streak and when the fall came they not only didn't have the guts and courage to admit they were wrong but fled like rats from that board.

 

I have some doubts if there is a real commitment to rectify what went down last year and coupled with some real weaknesses on the team, especially the lack of quality depth in our starting rotation, we could be in serious trouble this year. My heart tells me the team can rally and make a real run for the AL East Title and with good health and solid performances from all the players actually win it. My head tells me that we might be in serious trouble. We have not done all we can to ratchet up the team to division standards while the ownership has suddenly turned scrooge. I wonder if expect the worst and hope for the best would fit this year's team. Right now I see them as a second place team.