Bard as a Starter Discussion

[SoxSport]

I didn't say that Melancon was bad' date=' but you know the stats. He's not as good as Bard, and he has been pitching in a weak Division of the NL. He's 26, the same as Bard, and he has had only one good full year. Bard is better, and he has been doing it for 3 years.[/quote']

 

I think Bard is better, too. But they are leaving themselves awfully thin in the front and back ends of the pitching staff as it looks right now--hoping lightening will strike from all those retreads they are inviting to ST. How are they going to look at all those guys and give the regulars enough work? And if Bailey goes down, or Melacon doesn't pan out, what then? Murphy's Law always seems to apply to Red Sox pitching.

 

 

I think there's a flaw in their approach of, hey we don't need a top pitcher for #4 and 5.

What happens if #1,2 or 3 go down--like last year?

[SoxFanForsyth]

If we sign or trade for a starter' date=' Aceves can go back to the bullpen where he will be a great asset. If Bard blows up in his conversion to starting, Bard can go back to the pen and Aceves can take a shot at starting. That could be a plan B.[/quote']

 

IMO - it all boils down to this.

 

I would rather see Bard on the mound for 160-170 IP next season. Not just 60-70 IP. He's an elite relief pitcher right now, and if he can translate into an above average to great SP, I'd rather have 160 great innings than 70 elite innings, because if you ask me, Elite isn't twice as good as Great.

[Palodios]

I didn't say that Melancon was bad' date=' but you know the stats. He's not as good as Bard, and he has been pitching in a weak Division of the NL. He's 26, the same as Bard, and he has had only one good full year. Bard is better, and he has been doing it for 3 years.[/quote']

 

The stats heavily favored Melancon in 2011.

 

The division was weak because of the team he played on, not because of the opposing teams. The Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, and Cubs had the #1, #2, and #5, #8 offenses of the NL. Factor in the Houston heat, and realize that NL closers don't throw against pitchers. I don't think he'll have a three month scoreless streak like Bard, but I would bet he'll be just as valuable by being consistent.

[example1]

I just looked up "Daniel Bard + slider" on the google machine and got this site first:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/daniel-bards-filthy-whiffmaker/

 

If watching this single pitch (and reading about it) doesn't remind you of the arm we're talking about, nothing will.

 

Watch the leg-kick on the follow through. Remind you of anyone? Maybe, someone who pitched for the Sox in the late 90s-thru the mid-2000s and is a 1st ballot HOF?

[redsoxfan3]

The stats heavily favored Melancon in 2011.

 

The division was weak because of the team he played on, not because of the opposing teams. The Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, and Cubs had the #1, #2, and #5, #8 offenses of the NL. Factor in the Houston heat, and realize that NL closers don't throw against pitchers. I don't think he'll have a three month scoreless streak like Bard, but I would bet he'll be just as valuable by being consistent.

 

Good points Palodios. With the discussion regarding the bullpen. It is going to be hard to duplicate the production we got out of Bard and Papelbon. Although, Bailey and Melancon are two guys that I think, if anyone, would be able to come close to the production we got out of Bard and Papelbon. Yes, Melancon was playing for the Astros, but he was also a closer and posted good numbers. It is like he was closing for a AAA team, he still faced major league hitters. He is also in the set-up role, so there is going to be slightly less pressure than if he were to be closing. Bailey will be fine as long as he stays away from injuries. I am hoping Aceves can stay in the pen. Aceves is 29, Bailey is 27, and Melancon is 26. We have a young, but a very talented 7th, 8th, and 9th combo. I am excited about these three for the next few years to come. I hope everything works out for these guys.

 

Bard was a decent starter in college and I know he struggled when he started for us in the minors, but he has really excelled as a reliever. I think with the experience he has as a starter and with the experience he has as a releiver that he is going to be fine for us as a starter in the backend of the rotation. It is a question mark at this point, but I don't think he can be any worse then Wake or Lackey.

[RedSoxNC84]

IMO - it all boils down to this.

 

I would rather see Bard on the mound for 160-170 IP next season. Not just 60-70 IP. He's an elite relief pitcher right now, and if he can translate into an above average to great SP, I'd rather have 160 great innings than 70 elite innings, because if you ask me, Elite isn't twice as good as Great.

 

Just 1 and 1/2 times as good, right?

[SoxSport]

You don't really need an elite closer to win. You just need a reliable one. Look at the Rays and the Cardinals last year. Bailey and Melancon should be OK. Both are young and may have some upside.

[a700hitter]

You don't really need an elite closer to win. You just need a reliable one. Look at the Rays and the Cardinals last year. Bailey and Melancon should be OK. Both are young and may have some upside.

You may not need an elite closer, but they are a stabilizing force for a team.

[Palodios]

You may not need an elite closer' date=' but they are a stabilizing force for a team.[/quote']

 

How many saves did Papelbon blow this September when he needed to be a stabilizing force?

[SoxSport]

With the discussion regarding the bullpen. It is going to be hard to duplicate the production we got out of Bard and Papelbon. Although' date=' Bailey and Melancon are two guys that I think, if anyone, would be able to come close to the production we got out of Bard and Papelbon.[/quote']

 

At least last year, anyways. Except for September. Their rotation looks a bit thin to me if they have to keep Bard in the BP. Pap had a lights out contract year after a couple of bad years, and I wonder if he can duplicate it this year. Bailey, Bard and Melancon give them a lot of closer options.

[a700hitter]

How many saves did Papelbon blow this September when he needed to be a stabilizing force?

Small sample size? The guy was money all year long and really since 2006.

[SoxSport]

Small sample size? The guy was money all year long and really since 2006.

 

Not so good for a couple of years before last year.

[a700hitter]

Not so good for a couple of years before last year.

He had one so-so year. He was still better than most closers even that year.

[Palodios]

Small sample size? The guy was money all year long and really since 2006.

 

How is it that you can criticize Lester for blowing up in September, and Papelbon is completely immune? Lester had a 3.09 ERA outside of September, but he gets all the s***. The Red Sox's season ended with Papelbon on the mound two of the last three years.

[a700hitter]

How is it that you can criticize Lester for blowing up in September' date=' and Papelbon is completely immune? Lester had a 3.09 ERA outside of September, but he gets all the s***. The Red Sox's season ended with Papelbon on the mound two of the last three years.[/quote']I criticized Papelbon when he blew those games. He left that pitch right in the middle of the plate thigh high, so I don't know what you are talking about.

[RiceLynnEvans]

Why change horses in mid stream? Why convert a born late innings guy? Why convert Aceves....he was shaky as a starter and excellent in middle/long relief. Stick with their strengths. Plus, why are they stockpiling all these career-long starters if they really plan to convert Bard and Aceves. I hope it's just lip service to bolster morale.

 

Bard as a set up guy and Aceves in long relief....grab Oswalt (not crazy about that move but a solid #4 and we can mix and match the outcasts we've been brining in...maybe there's a solid #5 there).

 

NOW GET A SS!

[jacksonianmarch]

Bard is an interesting enigma. He has an ace 1-2 punch and can probably develop his change to be good. But he isnt a college reliever they transitioned to the pen. He's a college starter who completely imploded as a starter in the minors. So much so that they forced him to throw out of the stretch and shortened his arsenal so he didnt have to focus on multiple innings, multiple offerings and a full delivery. He's mastered the shortened approach, but what happens if he falls apart again when you stretch him out? We'll find out. He could go anywhere from complete and total bust to ace level production. But overall, I think he ends up akin to Ogando did last yr. Dominant at the start, falls off a cliff as the yr goes on and will be a pen arm come late regular season or postseason

[Station 13]

Unless he put on 30LB of muscle, he's going to tired quick mid season. His velocity dipped nearly 2MPH last September from his career average.

[VA Sox Fan]

Bard is an interesting enigma. He has an ace 1-2 punch and can probably develop his change to be good. But he isnt a college reliever they transitioned to the pen. He's a college starter who completely imploded as a starter in the minors. So much so that they forced him to throw out of the stretch and shortened his arsenal so he didnt have to focus on multiple innings' date=' multiple offerings and a full delivery. He's mastered the shortened approach, but what happens if he falls apart again when you stretch him out? We'll find out. He could go anywhere from complete and total bust to ace level production. But overall, I think he ends up akin to Ogando did last yr. Dominant at the start, falls off a cliff as the yr goes on and will be a pen arm come late regular season or postseason[/quote']

 

I'm kinda hoping he'll change his mind like Papelbon did.

[User Name]

Unless he put on 30LB of muscle' date=' he's going to tired quick mid season. His velocity dipped nearly 2MPH last September from his career average.[/quote']

 

30 lbs of lean muscle is a very large amount of weight.

[mvp 78]

I just think he'll get killed the second time through the lineup. He has more value as a reliever, imo.

[Elktonnick]

I'm kinda hoping he'll change his mind like Papelbon did.

 

From the interview I saw I think Bard really wants to be a starter. I think the Sox are acceding to his wishes mainly because he has been such an asset. If he isn't effective starting I think Bard is the type of kid who would tell the team he is ready to do back to the pen. But they will give him ample opportunity to prove himself before that happens. IMHO

[Station 13]

30 lbs of lean muscle is a very large amount of weight.

 

yes it is. It just a random number I threw out.

 

But he's definitely need to gain some muscle/weight as a starter. Because he looks unhealthy like Buchholz to play a whole season.

 

His (see green) Velocity chart: see the dive in 2011 at the end.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/7115_P_1_20110928.png

[RedSoxNC84]

Bard is an interesting enigma. He has an ace 1-2 punch and can probably develop his change to be good. But he isnt a college reliever they transitioned to the pen. He's a college starter who completely imploded as a starter in the minors. So much so that they forced him to throw out of the stretch and shortened his arsenal so he didnt have to focus on multiple innings' date=' multiple offerings and a full delivery. He's mastered the shortened approach, but what happens if he falls apart again when you stretch him out? We'll find out. He could go anywhere from complete and total bust to ace level production. But overall, I think he ends up akin to Ogando did last yr. Dominant at the start, falls off a cliff as the yr goes on and will be a pen arm come late regular season or postseason[/quote']

 

^ This.

[redsoxrules]

Unless he put on 30LB of muscle' date=' he's going to tired quick mid season. His velocity dipped nearly 2MPH last September from his career average.[/quote']

 

The ball dosent fly as fast during the cold months.

Also , Disagree. Bard has a big frame and dosen't use a lot of energy to throw

hard . I can see him as a verlander type in where he wont lose velocity during later innings.