Red Sox Offense 2012

[a700hitter]

Rather than signing Papelbon or Madson or any other closer to some ridiculous contract, Cherington showed patience. He was able to acquire two very good relievers who are young and under team control through 2014 (Bailey) and 2016 (Melancon) for about 1/3 of the cost of Papelbon for this year. The players we gave up, IMO, were well worth the players we got back.

 

As much as I love Papelbon, I am very glad that we did not sign him to the deal that the Phillies gave him, and ditto that with the other closers who were available through free agency.

 

I wasn't even condsidering Shoppach. I agree, he was not a tremendous value play.

No one has signed Madson yet, so we don't know how much he will get or for how long. He jumped at offering Ortiz arbitration that will result in an overpay that would have been better put to use for Papelbon. While Bailey will be under team control for a few years, he is arbitration eligible. He should make $3.5 million this season and that will go up each year if we are luck enough that he stays healthy and performs well. He's not going to a be a huge financial bargain. We'll be paying him market value through the arbitration system on a yearly basis.

[Palodios]

No one has signed Madson yet' date=' so we don't know how much he will get or for how long. He jumped at offering Ortiz arbitration that will result in an overpay [/quote']

 

We also don't know how much Ortiz is going to make yet, either....

[Deebs]

No one has signed Madson yet' date=' so we don't know how much he will get or for how long. He jumped at offering Ortiz arbitration that will result in an overpay that would have been better put to use for Papelbon. While Bailey will be under team control for a few years, he is arbitration eligible. He should make $3.5 million this season and that will go up each year if we are luck enough that he stays healthy and performs well. He's not going to a be a huge financial bargain. We'll be paying him market value through the arbitration system on a yearly basis.[/quote']

 

That's true, we don't know what Madson will get. His price probably went down once the Sox signed Bailey. Would you prefer him at a 4 year deal over Bailey? That's what he was looking for.

 

Of course we don't know how Bailey will perform (nor do we know how Paps will perform) but I think Bailey is a pretty significant bargain over Paps. Paps gets 4 years guaranteed at an average of $12.5 mil per year (plus a vesting option).

 

If Bailey performs well, he would likely get in the neighborhood of about $7 mil next year and $10 mil in 2014. Plus, the Sox have the option of working out a team friendly long term deal with him if he is successful.

 

I agree Papi will be overpaid, but IMO, the Sox made the right decision in offering him arbitration.

[a700hitter]

We also don't know how much Ortiz is going to make yet' date=' either....[/quote']We have a really good idea what he will make. He can't make less than the $12.5 million he made in 2010. That's for certain. It's doubtful that any team would have paid him that much on the open market. They are estimating that he will get $14+ million in the arbitration process.

[a700hitter]

That's true, we don't know what Madson will get. His price probably went down once the Sox signed Bailey. Would you prefer him at a 4 year deal over Bailey? That's what he was looking for.

 

Of course we don't know how Bailey will perform (nor do we know how Paps will perform) but I think Bailey is a pretty significant bargain over Paps. Paps gets 4 years guaranteed at an average of $12.5 mil per year (plus a vesting option).

 

If Bailey performs well, he would likely get in the neighborhood of about $7 mil next year and $10 mil in 2014. Plus, the Sox have the option of working out a team friendly long term deal with him if he is successful.

 

I agree Papi will be overpaid, but IMO, the Sox made the right decision in offering him arbitration.

We'll have to see what Madson gets and for how many years. We don't know if he is going to get 4 years. Bailey is a great talent who is coming with a great deal of injury risk. The arbitration process will will ensure that he gets his full FMV, so there is not a lot of savings if saving is defined as a discount from fair market value. Sure he is cheaper than Papelbon, but he is not as good as Papelbon.

 

Lastly, why do you think it was the right move to offer Ortiz arbitration?

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox went the prudent albeit higher risk way. Bailey is good, but since his 80+IP season as a rookie, he's barely eclipsed 80IP over the following 2 seasons. High velocity relievers with elbow issues almost invariably end up with TJS. The question is when. Should Bailey be completely healthy, he has elite level closer ability, but his health is a much bigger question mark than Papelbon's. And, you knew what Paps could do in Fenway. It remains to be seen if Bailey and Melancon can handle the bright lights and the boos should either of them blow leads in consecutive games. Paps didnt give a flying f*** if the fans were booing him, but some kids cannot take it. It remains to be seen if those two guys can

[seabeachfred]

I have been reading in the MLB TradeRumor site that certain baseball people think that Cherries is waiting to see if someone cheap- a bargain-- falls to him further into the off season. That's a risky strategy. This team has a few critical holes. First and foremost, it needs one more reliable starter. If we get one and fill in less critical areas like a RH RFer and another bullpen arm-- maybe a Wheeler, the Sox will be a very strong team-- a playoff team. Without the additional starter, they are not a strong team and I don't see the playoffs in 2012. Everyone will jump ugly on me that one starter can't make that much difference. I think it does.

 

First of all, if you start the season with 2 starters (Aceves and Bard) who have never been starters in MLB except for a couple of emergency starts, you are going nowhere. Period. I predicted that the 2008 Yankes were going nowhere around May1st of that year (and I never count out the Yanks), because they had 2 rookies in their rotation. It didn't work for them and it ain't going to work for us. If we get another bona fide starter, Aceves can go back to his very valuable role as a swing-man and that will make the whole bullpen better. If Cherries loses his gamble and a cheap bargain Starting Pitcher doesn't fall into his lap, he is risking the entire 2012 season IMO. I think they should do their due diligence on the guys that are still out there or available for trade and bite the bullet and make the move before some other team gets the guy Cherries wants. They are probably going over the cap anyway, so the financial risk is not huge. The risk of coming up empty is enormous. If we hear that they can plug the holes during the season, that might as well signal a s*** season at Fenway, because major pitching holes are rarely filled during the season, and when they are filled during the season, they are usually very expensive.

 

The only ones who will jump on you for your missive about how critical getting a quality fourth starter is are those who don't much of a clue about how important that is. You explained it very well and I notice that Palodios was right there with you and we all know that guy knows what the hell is going on. You can get your opinion is in the majority. Palodios cautions patience and I guess we will have to be in that regard but I still would like Cherington to be a little more proactive in his search for that elusive fourth starter. It would be a great move for us because either Bard or Aceves could return to the bullpen which would strengthen us there and it would provide cover in that 80% of the time we would send a quality starter out there. To me your argument is a no brainer. It must be done.

[Palodios]

We'll have to see what Madson gets and for how many years. We don't know if he is going to get 4 years. Bailey is a great talent who is coming with a great deal of injury risk. The arbitration process will will ensure that he gets his full FMV, so there is not a lot of savings if saving is defined as a discount from fair market value. Sure he is cheaper than Papelbon, but he is not as good as Papelbon.

 

Lastly, why do you think it was the right move to offer Ortiz arbitration?

 

I'm not sure why you keep bringing up the Ortiz arbitration situation. It was a win-win situation. If he declined, they could take the picks, get younger, and rotate into the DH spot to keep players healthy. If he accepted, they got Ortiz on a one year deal. Papi is coming off a .300 average, 30 HR, .400 OBP season. I'm not going to lose sleep over giving him 14 million a year. He deserved it.

 

As far as Bailey, please use some accurate information. He's going to probably make 4/6/8 the next three years. Those values are only guaranteed for the year he's pitching, and substantially lower inspite of the injury threat. If he gets hurt, they dump him. If Papelbon gets hurt, the Phillies are stuck with him. He's also been just as good than Papelbon has been over the last three years.

[mvp 78]

The sox went the prudent albeit higher risk way. Bailey is good' date=' but since his 80+IP season as a rookie, he's barely eclipsed 80IP over the following 2 seasons. High velocity relievers with elbow issues almost invariably end up with TJS. The question is when. Should Bailey be completely healthy, he has elite level closer ability, but his health is a much bigger question mark than Papelbon's. And, you knew what Paps could do in Fenway. It remains to be seen if Bailey and Melancon can handle the bright lights and the boos should either of them blow leads in consecutive games. Paps didnt give a flying f*** if the fans were booing him, but some kids cannot take it. It remains to be seen if those two guys can[/quote']

 

Do pitchers often have TJS more than once. He previously had it in college. 2005 maybe?

[a700hitter]

I'm not sure why you keep bringing up the Ortiz arbitration situation. It was a win-win situation. If he declined' date=' they could take the picks, get younger, and rotate into the DH spot to keep players healthy. If he accepted, they got Ortiz on a one year deal. Papi is coming off a .300 average, 30 HR, .400 OBP season. I'm not going to lose sleep over giving him 14 million a year. He deserved it.[/quote']Pal, your head is in the sand on this one. I am a huge David Ortiz fan, but offering him arbitration was a lose lose for the Sox. Anybody and everybody knew Ortiz had a limited market value and that arb would lock him in for $14 million + for 2012. He would have been a financial imbecile if he had turned down arb. The Sox had no grasp on what his market would be. It was a terrible miscalculation. There wasn't a shot in hell that they were going to get 2 draft choices for him. That's not 20-20 quarterbacking. A good number of people here said it from the beginning. If they hadn't offered arb, they would have $4-5 million more of payroll for2012, because they could have signed him for $10 million.

 

As far as Bailey' date=' please use some accurate information. He's going to probably make 4/6/8 the next three years. Those values are only guaranteed for the year he's pitching, and substantially lower inspite of the injury threat. If he gets hurt, they dump him. If Papelbon gets hurt, the Phillies are stuck with him. He's also been just as good than Papelbon has been over the last three years.[/quote']You are the one who is not being accurate about the facts. If Bailey is as good as Papelbon look at what Papelbon got in arbitration at age 27-29. Bailey is 27 and if he does what Papelbon did at age 28, 29, and 30 he'll be getting more like $6, 10 and 12 million from an arbitrator.

[a700hitter]

Do pitchers often have TJS more than once. He previously had it in college. 2005 maybe?

I think there are a number of pitchers that have had a second surgery, but few make it back. There was some notable MLB rehabbing from a second TJ this year, but I can't remember his name.

[example1]

Pal, your head is in the sand on this one. I am a huge David Ortiz fan, but offering him arbitration was a lose lose for the Sox. Anybody and everybody knew Ortiz had a limited market value and that arb would lock him in for $14 million + for 2012. He would have been a financial imbecile if he had turned down arb. The Sox had no grasp on what his market would be. It was a terrible miscalculation. There wasn't a shot in hell that they were going to get 2 draft choices for him. That's not 20-20 quarterbacking. A good number of people here said it from the beginning. If they hadn't offered arb, they would have $4-5 million more of payroll for2012, because they could have signed him for $10 million.

 

You are the one who is not being accurate about the facts. If Bailey is as good as Papelbon look at what Papelbon got in arbitration at age 27-29. Bailey is 27 and if he does what Papelbon did at age 28, 29, and 30 he'll be getting more like $6, 10 and 12 million from an arbitrator.

 

Is 6, 10, and 12m what you mean by FMV, or is Papelbons new contract FMV? Arbitration is a fair process for players but it doesn't provide players their open market value until the final year. It seems that Bailey is assured to coat less than Papelbon as long as he's with the sox, doesn't it?

[Palodios]

Pal, your head is in the sand on this one. I am a huge David Ortiz fan, but offering him arbitration was a lose lose for the Sox. Anybody and everybody knew Ortiz had a limited market value and that arb would lock him in for $14 million + for 2012. He would have been a financial imbecile if he had turned down arb. The Sox had no grasp on what his market would be. It was a terrible miscalculation. There wasn't a shot in hell that they were going to get 2 draft choices for him. That's not 20-20 quarterbacking. A good number of people here said it from the beginning. If they hadn't offered arb, they would have $4-5 million more of payroll for2012, because they could have signed him for $10 million.

 

You are the one who is not being accurate about the facts. If Bailey is as good as Papelbon look at what Papelbon got in arbitration at age 27-29. Bailey is 27 and if he does what Papelbon did at age 28, 29, and 30 he'll be getting more like $6, 10 and 12 million from an arbitrator.

 

Once again, I'm not going to lose sleep over giving a very productive player a little bit more than market value on a one year deal.

 

As far as Bailey-- I explicitly mentioned it in my last post. He is making less money than Papelbon because of his low innings, but the quality per inning is the same.

[Palodios]

Also, Ortiz would have been a huge pain in the ass if they declined and offered him 1/10. Atleast this way, they can put it back on him, and tell him he had the opportunity to go for a multi-year deal. A happy leader in the clubhouse is worth a few extra million on this team.

[a700hitter]

Also' date=' Ortiz would have been a huge pain in the ass if they declined and offered him 1/10. Atleast this way, they can put it back on him, and tell him he had the opportunity to go for a multi-year deal. A happy leader in the clubhouse is worth a few extra million on this team.[/quote']Paying someone 40 to 50 percent more than market value is not a slight overpay.

 

When the Sox are in pinching penny mode, and extra $4-5 million would come in handy trying to get a starting pitcher.

[a700hitter]

One trade target that I haven't read a lot about is Bret Myers. What do people here think about him?

[seabeachfred]

A helluva lot better than resigning the putrid Wakefield again.

[sleepyhollow]

First Putrid Tek and then, Putrid Wakefield........it's coming down the pike.

[mvp 78]

One trade target that I haven't read a lot about is Bret Myers. What do people here think about him?

 

I know what will get fans excited, sign a wife beater! I was at the game after the incident. Myers could barely get out of the dugout due to the booing. Weren't they looking to bring in character guys?

[a700hitter]

I know what will get fans excited' date=' sign a wife beater! I was at the game after the incident. Myers could barely get out of the dugout due to the booing. Weren't they looking to bring in character guys?[/quote']So you object to Myers on moral grounds?

[mvp 78]

So you object to Myers on moral grounds?

 

He's not mentally tough. If he was, he would have either not punched his wife or been able to face the music. He would put up Lackey numbers.

[a700hitter]

He's not mentally tough. If he was' date=' he would have either not punched his wife or been able to face the music. He would put up Lackey numbers.[/quote']

So, you are a no for Myers.

[Muggah]

A helluva lot better than resigning the putrid Wakefield again.

 

Amen to that. Wakefield needs to be tossed with last season's stale peanuts. Can we please put a stop to this guy and his nonsense once and for all. He sucks.

[Deebs]

We'll have to see what Madson gets and for how many years. We don't know if he is going to get 4 years. Bailey is a great talent who is coming with a great deal of injury risk. The arbitration process will will ensure that he gets his full FMV, so there is not a lot of savings if saving is defined as a discount from fair market value. Sure he is cheaper than Papelbon, but he is not as good as Papelbon.

 

Lastly, why do you think it was the right move to offer Ortiz arbitration?

 

I don't argue that Bailey comes with some injury risk.

 

Bailey will get fair market value, for an arbitration eligible player. But that market value is much less than the market value of a player in free agency. That was my point. He and Melancon are costing the Red Sox 1/3 of the price of Papelbon. No, neither one is as good as Papelbon is, but IMO, Bailey is a far better deal at $3.5 mil than Paps is at $12 mil. Paps is not worth $8 mil more than the two of those players put together.

 

As far as Papi is concerned, he will be overpaid next year, but I don't really have any issue with paying him roughly $14 mil for ONE year. Based on his production last year, he was worth it. I prefer overpaying him some for one year rather than signing him to a multi-year deal. If he declines, the Sox get 2 draft picks.

[Deebs]

The sox went the prudent albeit higher risk way. Bailey is good' date=' but since his 80+IP season as a rookie, he's barely eclipsed 80IP over the following 2 seasons. High velocity relievers with elbow issues almost invariably end up with TJS. The question is when. Should Bailey be completely healthy, he has elite level closer ability, but his health is a much bigger question mark than Papelbon's. And, you knew what Paps could do in Fenway. It remains to be seen if Bailey and Melancon can handle the bright lights and the boos should either of them blow leads in consecutive games. Paps didnt give a flying f*** if the fans were booing him, but some kids cannot take it. It remains to be seen if those two guys can[/quote']

 

All fair points. It remains to be seen whether Bailey or Melancon can handle the pressure in Boston. That said, I think Papelbon's contract was insane. You can get pretty much the same production that we got from Papelbon at a much cheaper cost. I wanted Papelbon back as much as anybody, but I'm glad the Sox did not shell out that kind of money for him.

[Palodios]

Paying someone 40 to 50 percent more than market value is not a slight overpay.

 

When the Sox are in pinching penny mode, and extra $4-5 million would come in handy trying to get a starting pitcher.

 

Fangraphs says Ortiz was worth 18 million in production last year. The Red Sox were willing to pay him 12.25 in 2010, coming off a season that was not as good as 2011. He was not going to get any less than a 1/12 or 2/20 contract. Designated hitters are in low demand, sure, but none of them are as healthy, or consistent as Ortiz, and none of them hit anywhere near as well as he does. 12.25 to 14 is only a 14% raise.

[Palodios]

One trade target that I haven't read a lot about is Bret Myers. What do people here think about him?

 

A 4.46 ERA in the NL Central translates to about a 6.00 ERA in the AL East. I doubt he'd be willing to take a role as a #8 starter.

[jacksonianmarch]

Fangraphs says Ortiz was worth 18 million in production last year. The Red Sox were willing to pay him 12.25 in 2010' date=' coming off a season that was not as good as 2011. He was not going to get any less than a 1/12 or 2/20 contract. Designated hitters are in low demand, sure, but none of them are as healthy, or consistent as Ortiz, and none of them hit anywhere near as well as he does. 12.25 to 14 is only a 14% raise.[/quote']

 

fangraphs and the real world often diverge. Vlad had a stellar campaign in 2010 and settled for a 1 yr deal for $6 mil. Teams are going away from paying a massive amount of money for one sided players. Ortiz was probably looking at around $10 mil per annum on the open market, and the sox are likely to pay 50% more than that in arb

[Palodios]

fangraphs and the real world often diverge. Vlad had a stellar campaign in 2010 and settled for a 1 yr deal for $6 mil. Teams are going away from paying a massive amount of money for one sided players. Ortiz was probably looking at around $10 mil per annum on the open market' date=' and the sox are likely to pay 50% more than that in arb[/quote']

 

I'm not suggesting Ortiz deserves 18 million, just that 12 million isn't out of the question whatsoever. Find me a player who hit .900 or more OPS at ANY position and is only getting a one year contract, and that will change this whole conversation.

 

Oh, and just for kicks:

 

Guerrero's 2010-- .300 .345 .496 .841

 

Dave Ortiz's 2011--.309 .398 .554 .953

[jacksonianmarch]

But that's the thing, this isnt "any" position. This is a position that is useless in interleague and contributes nothing defensively. If you have a player putting up those numbers at a fielding position, they get big bucks. But factor in his age, his previous 2 yrs contributions and his position and you are looking at one yr offers. There is a reason he accepted arb. He wasnt getting multi-year offers on the open market because his worth out there as a DH isnt terribly high