Red Sox Offense 2012

[a700hitter]

I'm not suggesting Ortiz deserves 18 million, just that 12 million isn't out of the question whatsoever. Find me a player who hit .900 or more OPS at ANY position and is only getting a one year contract, and that will change this whole conversation.

 

Oh, and just for kicks:

 

Guerrero's 2010-- .300 .345 .496 .841

 

Dave Ortiz's 2011--.309 .398 .554 .953

$12 million is too much and he will be getting more in the neighborhood of $14-15 million in 2012. They overpaid. There is no debate over that.

[Palodios]

But that's the thing' date=' this isnt "any" position. This is a position that is useless in interleague and contributes nothing defensively. If you have a player putting up those numbers at a fielding position, they get big bucks. But factor in his age, his previous 2 yrs contributions and his position and you are looking at one yr offers. There is a reason he accepted arb. He wasnt getting multi-year offers on the open market because his worth out there as a DH isnt terribly high[/quote']

 

In 2010, at age 35, Konerko hit .960 at first base, and provided s*** poor defense. His career numbers were nowhere near the level of consistency that Ortiz's were. Konerko got a 3/37 contract. Adam Dunn and Victor Martinez both got 50+ million dollar contracts to be glorified DHes, and never hit remotely close to the numbers Ortiz did.

 

Ortiz loses value because of the position he plays. We've established that. But he's close enough to those other guys in total value that getting half of one of those contracts doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

[Palodios]

$12 million is too much and he will be getting more in the neighborhood of $14-15 million in 2012. They overpaid. There is no debate over that.

 

Try presenting an argument besides "I'm right and you're wrong" please.

[a700hitter]

Try presenting an argument besides "I'm right and you're wrong" please.

The proof is that he accepted the arbitration, because no one came close to a multi year contract that would make it worth passing up 1 year at $14 million. He has desperately wanted a multi year deal, but no one offered anything with enough value to pass on the 1 year deal.

[VA Sox Fan]

Try presenting an argument besides "I'm right and you're wrong" please.

 

Maybe when hell freezes over!!

[Palodios]

The proof is that he accepted the arbitration' date=' because no one came close to a multi year contract that would make it worth passing up 1 year at $14 million. He has desperately wanted a multi year deal, but no one offered anything with enough value to pass on the 1 year deal.[/quote']

 

Or maybe he just wanted to come back to play for the Red Sox-- the team he had played 9 seasons for-- and knew he wasn't going to get a multi-year deal from them, so took the best deal he was going to get.

[example1]

A better question might be who could the Sox have spent the same money on (say 14m) who would provide the same value in wins. I haven't actually searched but someone could research using WAR. There is no doubt his cost is high, but many baseball economists (and teams) agree that paying more for a player whose wins put the team into the playoffs (and the extra revenue and acclaim post-season games provide) is a reasonable strategy. If the Sox believe--as I do--that this is a playoff team, and that replacing ortizs production would cost more than 14m or decrease team flexibility moving forward, then perhaps it makes sense. Remember, the comparable signings would have been multi-year signings and would have actually cost more.

 

The move makes no sense if you think the team as constructed in 2011 was incapable of winning a WS in 2012 with some minor tweaks. I suspect the Sox FO thinks the team they have is very good, and that losing Ortiz would have created more trouble for 2012 and beyond than it was worth.

 

They had limited spots to fill on the team, they have a DH in waiting for 2013, and due to having limited spots open they had limited options in terms of who would replace that production. Could they have purchased Ortizs production with a combination of RF and SPs as the market has played out thus far? I don't know, perhaps. It may have been risky though to put their money on Beltrans market not becoming excessive, or Buehrle agreeing to a contract that comes close to reflecting his actual abilities, not ace status salary.

 

Overall this is an interesting discussion. I bet with events happening just right a better combination of players could have been found, but I don't think they could have doubled their value for the same salary, and this way if they really DO think this is a club in win-now mode, they still have a beast in the middle of their lineup who is only signed for one season. Higher coat, lower risk, 2012 still a very good team.

[a700hitter]

Or maybe he just wanted to come back to play for the Red Sox-- the team he had played 9 seasons for-- and knew he wasn't going to get a multi-year deal from them' date=' so took the best deal he was going to get.[/quote']So, it your position that he could have gotten a multi-year deal that would have been valuable enough to pass on the one year at $14 million, but he passed on his last big payday to stay with the Red Sox out of loyalty?

 

There isn't one team that needs a dedicated DH that has the money to pay the kind of money that Ortiz will make. Teams are looking for flexibility in the DH position. VMart can play 2 positions including a premium position -- catcher. Dunn can also play 2 positions. Konerko plays 1B everyday. Tell me where the market was for Ortiz. Fifteen teams are out of the picture because there is no DH in the NL. Who needed and could afford him in the AL?

[a700hitter]

Maybe when hell freezes over!!

Wasting bandwidth as usual.

[a700hitter]

A better question might be who could the Sox have spent the same money on (say 14m) who would provide the same value in wins. I haven't actually searched but someone could research using WAR. There is no doubt his cost is high, but many baseball economists (and teams) agree that paying more for a player whose wins put the team into the playoffs (and the extra revenue and acclaim post-season games provide) is a reasonable strategy. If the Sox believe--as I do--that this is a playoff team, and that replacing ortizs production would cost more than 14m or decrease team flexibility moving forward, then perhaps it makes sense. Remember, the comparable signings would have been multi-year signings and would have actually cost more.

 

The move makes no sense if you think the team as constructed in 2011 was incapable of winning a WS in 2012 with some minor tweaks. I suspect the Sox FO thinks the team they have is very good, and that losing Ortiz would have created more trouble for 2012 and beyond than it was worth.

 

They had limited spots to fill on the team, they have a DH in waiting for 2013, and due to having limited spots open they had limited options in terms of who would replace that production. Could they have purchased Ortizs production with a combination of RF and SPs as the market has played out thus far? I don't know, perhaps. It may have been risky though to put their money on Beltrans market not becoming excessive, or Buehrle agreeing to a contract that comes close to reflecting his actual abilities, not ace status salary.

 

Overall this is an interesting discussion. I bet with events happening just right a better combination of players could have been found, but I don't think they could have doubled their value for the same salary, and this way if they really DO think this is a club in win-now mode, they still have a beast in the middle of their lineup who is only signed for one season. Higher coat, lower risk, 2012 still a very good team.

I think you are missing the point. The question is not what combination of players could have replaced Ortiz for $14 million. The real question is whether anyone else would have paid him anywhere close to the $14-15 million. Where was his market? Maybe Ortiz would produce enough WAR that it would cost $14 million to replace, but who was going to play Ortiz $14-15 million. Getting him for 2/$18-20 million would have been a value acquisition. They had no shot at that once they offered him arb.

[VA Sox Fan]

Wasting bandwidth as usual.

 

Missing/ignoring the point, as usual.

[FredLynn]

So, it your position that he could have gotten a multi-year deal that would have been valuable enough to pass on the one year at $14 million, but he passed on his last big payday to stay with the Red Sox out of loyalty?

 

There isn't one team that needs a dedicated DH that has the money to pay the kind of money that Ortiz will make. Teams are looking for flexibility in the DH position. VMart can play 2 positions including a premium position -- catcher. Dunn can also play 2 positions. Konerko plays 1B everyday. Tell me where the market was for Ortiz. Fifteen teams are out of the picture because there is no DH in the NL. Who needed and could afford him in the AL?

 

Ortiz failed to get any offers of more than one year. At the end of last season he commented about his desire to leave all the drama in Boston for a more serene atmosphere. The Red Sox offered him arbitration not because they really wanted to pay him the $14-15M he will get but because the took a calculated risk that he would decline it and then we would get two good draft picks. They guessed wrong, and now they don't have the money to buy the SP the team desperately needs.

At least thats my take on it.

[a700hitter]

Ortiz failed to get any offers of more than one year. At the end of last season he commented about his desire to leave all the drama in Boston for a more serene atmosphere. The Red Sox offered him arbitration not because they really wanted to pay him the $14-15M he will get but because the took a calculated risk that he would decline it and then we would get two good draft picks. They guessed wrong, and now they don't have the money to buy the SP the team desperately needs.

At least thats my take on it.

It was an obvious miscalculation by the FO.

[example1]

I think you are missing the point. The question is not what combination of players could have replaced Ortiz for $14 million. The real question is whether anyone else would have paid him anywhere close to the $14-15 million. Where was his market? Maybe Ortiz would produce enough WAR that it would cost $14 million to replace' date=' but who was going to play Ortiz $14-15 million. Getting him for 2/$18-20 million would have been a value acquisition. They had no shot at that once they offered him arb.[/quote']

 

Do you think anyone else would have offered him for 2/18-20? I do.

[a700hitter]

Do you think anyone else would have offered him for 2/18-20? I do.

Yes, I think someone might have offered 2/$18 million, because at 2/$18 million, he would be a value.

[FredLynn]

Do you think anyone else would have offered him for 2/18-20? I do.

 

Nope. I don't. Neither of us can prove it, but I think that if he got that offer he would have taken it. This is probably his last year in baseball IMO. He is severely limited by the fact that he cannot play in the field.

I wish someone HAD offered him that money. I suspect he got NO offers once arbitration was offered by the Red Sox

[FredLynn]

Yes' date=' I think someone might have offered 2/$18 million, because at 2/$18 million, he would be a value.[/quote']

 

He would have had to decline arbitration then accept the offer. The team that signed him would have had to surrender two high draft picks PLUS pay him 2/$18M. He isn't worth that kind of package.

[example1]

Yes' date=' I think someone might have offered 2/$18 million, because at 2/$18 million, he would be a value.[/quote']

 

So then they lose risk losing him. How much higher than that would you go? Beltran got 2 x 13. Would you go that high?

[example1]

He would have had to decline arbitration then accept the offer. The team that signed him would have had to surrender two high draft picks PLUS pay him 2/$18M. He isn't worth that kind of package.

 

They would surrender their first pick and a supplemental round pick would go to the Sox. It isn't a pick the signing team loses. Just a point of clarification.

[FredLynn]

They would surrender their first pick and a supplemental round pick would go to the Sox. It isn't a pick the signing team loses. Just a point of clarification.

 

Thanks. I did not know that.

[example1]

He would have had to decline arbitration then accept the offer. The team that signed him would have had to surrender two high draft picks PLUS pay him 2/$18M. He isn't worth that kind of package.

 

Also, this is under the assumption that the Sox DIDN'T offer him arbitration, so it wouldn't be a lost pick at all. Just another point of clarification.

[FredLynn]

Also' date=' this is under the assumption that the Sox DIDN'T offer him arbitration, so it wouldn't be a lost pick at all. Just another point of clarification.[/quote']

 

Right, well, they DID offer him arbitration. If none were offered, then your original proposal for him would be fair.

[a700hitter]

He would have had to decline arbitration then accept the offer. The team that signed him would have had to surrender two high draft picks PLUS pay him 2/$18M. He isn't worth that kind of package.

I agree. I should have been clear that he could have gotten that kind of package if the Sox didn't offer arb.

[example1]

Right' date=' well, they DID offer him arbitration. If none were offered, then your original proposal for him would be fair.[/quote']

 

 

So, given that original proposal, do you think another team would have offered him that much? If so, wouldn't the Sox have had to pay at least that much, if not more, to resign him? That was the discussion.

[a700hitter]

So then they lose risk losing him. How much higher than that would you go? Beltran got 2 x 13. Would you go that high?

I think he would have stayed with the Sox if they matched an offer like 2/$18 million. I don't see Ortiz uprooting his career for the same money that the Sox would pay him.

[example1]

Do you think another team would have bid 2/$20 for Ortiz? I don't know how high it would go, but if it got to 2/$11 or so I think they are quickly approaching the less-return deal than a one year-14m deal. That's an extra 8m over two years.

 

If we are lamenting the 4m this year for Ortiz, wouldn't we be lamenting the 8m next year for him?

 

A700, I TOTALLY see your point. I don't like the contract either. I just assume there's some reason for a move like this other than incompetence.

[a700hitter]

Do you think another team would have bid 2/$20 for Ortiz? I don't know how high it would go, but if it got to 2/$11 or so I think they are quickly approaching the less-return deal than a one year-14m deal. That's an extra 8m over two years.

 

If we are lamenting the 4m this year for Ortiz, wouldn't we be lamenting the 8m next year for him?

 

A700, I TOTALLY see your point. I don't like the contract either. I just assume there's some reason for a move like this other than incompetence.

Team management of teams make mistakes all the time, even our beloved Red Sox. A mistake doesn't make them entirely incompetent, but it was a very bad mistake. No one was going to go over 2/$18-20 million. $10 million per year for Ortiz's production for 2 years would not be a bad value. $9 million per year would be very good value.

[FredLynn]

 

So, given that original proposal, do you think another team would have offered him that much? If so, wouldn't the Sox have had to pay at least that much, if not more, to resign him? That was the discussion.

 

I don't think he got any other offers because he WAS offered arbitration. That figure of $9M per year is really stretching it. I look at it this way: arbitration will get him $15M. If he is productive this year he is ours for just $3M next year; if not, we can walk away from that.

That said, I think it would have been wiser not to offer arbitration and let him walk, using the money to sign Oswalt or Kuroda for a year. Our offense would still have scored lots of runs.

[starwarsgeekperson]

I think its more likely Salty would bat .280 than their right fielder.

[RedSoxNC84]

Nope. I don't. Neither of us can prove it, but I think that if he got that offer he would have taken it. This is probably his last year in baseball IMO. He is severely limited by the fact that he cannot play in the field.

I wish someone HAD offered him that money. I suspect he got NO offers once arbitration was offered by the Red Sox

 

Even Jim Thome could play better in the field than Ortiz, granted he can't hit quite the same, but still you don't see people lining up to give him 12 mil either.