Red Sox Offense 2012

[cljunior]

Now that Reddick is gone, I checked out the Red Sox depth chart on MLB.com and it had McDonald as first choice RF ... scary!! When looking at the numbers though, Darnell finished the season on .236, Reddick .280 and Drew .222. So while Reddick had that booming start, as we all know he came back to Earth in the latter part of the season. So if we look at RF for the Sox last season, it probably yielded about .250 from that position, which isn't that hard to replace (there's probably somewhere that will show the exact average, but I don't know where)

 

The team average was .280, which was good for 2nd in the AL. We topped Runs, OBP and Slugging % as well. So looking at team lineup as it stands, I don't think it looks very different from an offensive point of view.

 

Thought we could work off the .280 benchmark:

 

ALMOST CERTAINS

CF Ellsbury

2B Pedroia

1B Gonzalez

 

MAYBES

DH Ortiz - I would say he is very likely to hit >.280, but lots of doubters and he is getting along in age

SS Scutaro - Tough to say, he had his best BA year ever with .299 last year, but probably hard for him to produce these numbers again next year, should get close though

3B Youkilis - Had his worst season ever with .258 after a injury riddled year. IF he stays fit, big IF, hard to not see him best this mark and get pretty close to .280

LF Crawford - Ended the season in .255, easily his worst BA since his rookie season. Hard to believe a career .300 hitter will not bounce back to at least post something closer to .280

 

UNLIKELY

RF McDonald/Sweeney/Kalish - Not sure how this is going to pan out, but I hope Sweeney kills it in Spring Training and gets the starting spot. He went .286/.293/.294 in 2008/2009/2010. In 2011 he batted .265, but this may have been a blip and hopefully will bounce back in 2012. Hard to see Kalish being fully fit to play all year and Darnell is definitely not a .280+ hitter.

 

DEFINITELY NOTS

C Saltalamacchia/Shoppach - Until Lavarnway is ready to catch, can't see the catcher's spot producing anywhere near a .280 BA. Salty batted .235 last season (felt a lot higher), some good power with 16 HRs.

 

Of course the above doesn't take into account the upside of batters who bat .320, etc which heaps out the lower end averages.

 

Looking at this list, the catcher's position is the weakest point in terms of offense (as it should be) and there's a few IFs around on some aging players. However even if Ortiz and Scutaro drop off a little, good chance that Crawford and Youk can pick up some of the slack for the other two's decline.

 

All in all, fairly confident that our offense in 2012 will yield pretty similar figures to last year. If not top, we should still stick near the top in offence. Our pitching on the other hand was atrocious and I think we still need another arm in the rotation for sure. Unless Lester/Buchholtz/Beckett/Bard/Aceves stay healthy the whole season, we are screwed. That's assuming Bard & Aceves do well at starting.

 

What do you think?

 

PS. The more I think about it, trading Reddick for Bailey/Sweeney is a friggin' awesome deal. Not only do we get someone with upside to bat .280+ in RF, but we get an All-Star closer as well!!

[jacksonianmarch]

Sweeney to me is more about defense than anything. Reddick's D cost them a few games an in Fenway, having a great fielding RFer is sometimes more important than a big slugger. Sweeney does two things well. He has a good eye and he can field. He doesnt hit for great average, doesnt steal bases and has no power. But in this lineup, having a guy who can play solid D at all 3 spots and play the hell out of RF is important. He'll be battling Salty for the 9 hole, but he does give you insurance should Kalish not be ready. My guess is that Kalish is in RF after the ASB

[cljunior]

Agree on Sweeney's power, but he hasn't had an OBP less than .342 over the last 4 seasons

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=435220

 

2008-2010: I'd take those averages

[SoxSport]

Agree on Sweeney's power, but he hasn't had an OBP less than .342 over the last 4 seasons

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=435220

 

2008-2010: I'd take those averages

 

Sweeney is a big guy who hits for average--especially against righties. His lack of power production has always been considered a mystery. Maybe Magaden can shed some light on this. He fits on this heavy hitting team as a platoon player in RF--or a reserve.

[Deebs]

Sweeney to me is more about defense than anything. Reddick's D cost them a few games an in Fenway' date=' having a great fielding RFer is sometimes more important than a big slugger. Sweeney does two things well. He has a good eye and he can field. He doesnt hit for great average, doesnt steal bases and has no power. But in this lineup, having a guy who can play solid D at all 3 spots and play the hell out of RF is important. He'll be battling Salty for the 9 hole, but he does give you insurance should Kalish not be ready. My guess is that Kalish is in RF after the ASB[/quote']

 

I agree. For one, the Sox offensive production out of RF last year was so bad that they could put just about anyone out there and there would be some improvement offensively. Secondly, although I haven't really paid close attention to Sweeney's swing or hitting tendencies, I'm guessing playing at Fenway versus in Oakland will help his power numbers some.

 

Regardless, Sweeney is an on base machine, and as you said, his defense is very solid.

[Deebs]

All in all, fairly confident that our offense in 2012 will yield pretty similar figures to last year. If not top, we should still stick near the top in offence. Our pitching on the other hand was atrocious and I think we still need another arm in the rotation for sure. Unless Lester/Buchholtz/Beckett/Bard/Aceves stay healthy the whole season, we are screwed. That's assuming Bard & Aceves do well at starting.

 

 

That sums it up pretty well. Our offense should be fine. Pitching is the concern for this team, and the addition of Bailey is a step in the right direction. We need one more middle rotation arm, and this team will look very good, IMO.

[wyo-sox]

I've read they have Mike Aviles working on outfield in the off season. He is a career. 288 hitter. Interesting.

[MANNYHOF24]

I see Youkilis and Crawford having huge bounce back years. (Youk wasn't that bad, but I expect him to stay on the field this year, just a hunch). That alone will make up for any lag in right field, or potential decline back to career norms for Ortiz (2008-2010) and Ellsbury.

[BSN07]

I've read multiple stories about Sweeney's knee's being shot. Is there any truth to these claims?

[a700hitter]

I've read multiple stories about Sweeney's knee's being shot. Is there any truth to these claims?

Are you mixing him up with Mike Sweeney formerly of KC? His knees were a mess.:dunno:

[FredLynn]

Interesting tidbit: the Red Sox as we know had no problem scoring runs last year. We were ahead of the rest of the AL in runs and OPS, as the author of this thread has mentioned. On that team, who was the leading RF for us in terms of production as judged by OPS?

Darnell McDonald. (Reddick was slightly better at .784, but he is no longer on the team-and after July 1 his OPS was just .714 compared to 1.198 before July 1)

For RF with a minimum of 100 ABs, McDonald was 14th (of 21 RF who qualified) in the AL with an OPS of .704. Drew was 20th at .617.

The point is that even with McDonald out there as our starting RF this team will score lots of runs. The problem was never with production; it was with preventing the other guys from scoring. We finished 9th in ERA in the AL. Until that gets fixed we will keep getting disappointed by this team.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/rf/league/al/sort/OPS/order/true/minpa/100

[Spitball]

Are you mixing him up with Mike Sweeney formerly of KC? His knees were a mess.:dunno:

 

Ryan Sweeney has had right knee problems, but I assume it is better now.

[jacksonianmarch]

With Kalish out until midseason with labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder, I have a feeling the sox arent done. Sweeney is a gap guy, someone who you dont want to lean on for a full season, but a good 4th OFer type who can plug a gap. Thing is, Kalish wont be able to play RF for awhile and at that point, he'll still effectively be a rookie who has had marginal time at AAA and is coming off 1.5 yrs of injury. And with a labrum injury, how effective will his throwing arm be? Is he a guy you expect can man one of the toughest RFs in the game with a bum shoulder? I think the sox have a plan and are going to execute it prior to ST. They have to have someone else in mind.

[a700hitter]

With Kalish out until midseason with labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder' date=' I have a feeling the sox arent done. Sweeney is a gap guy, someone who you dont want to lean on for a full season, but a good 4th OFer type who can plug a gap. Thing is, Kalish wont be able to play RF for awhile and at that point, he'll still effectively be a rookie who has had marginal time at AAA and is coming off 1.5 yrs of injury. And with a labrum injury, how effective will his throwing arm be? Is he a guy you expect can man one of the toughest RFs in the game with a bum shoulder? I think the sox have a plan and are going to execute it prior to ST. They have to have someone else in mind.[/quote']Kalish's injury problems are proving to be worse than Lowrie's.

[seabeachfred]

I see Youkilis and Crawford having huge bounce back years. (Youk wasn't that bad' date=' but I expect him to stay on the field this year, just a hunch). That alone will make up for any lag in right field, or potential decline back to career norms for Ortiz (2008-2010) and Ellsbury.[/quote']

 

I'm in agreement with that Mannyhof and I think I said something similar a couple of days ago. Certainly if those two make decent comebacks our attack should be as good as any in baseball. The key is to stay healthy (Youk) and have the right frame of mind (Crawford) With those two along with Pedroia, Ellsbury, Gonzales, Ortiz and the others doing their share we should be fine in hitting. The team must come to Spring Training with the right frame of mind along with another starting pitcher who we must sign or trade for and hopefully another RH bat not named McDonald. With Bailey as closer I think things are starting to look up, and I also think Melancon is going to be a very pleasant surprise.

[FredLynn]

I'm in agreement with that Mannyhof and I think I said something similar a couple of days ago. Certainly if those two make decent comebacks our attack should be as good as any in baseball. The key is to stay healthy (Youk) and have the right frame of mind (Crawford) With those two along with Pedroia' date=' Ellsbury, Gonzales, Ortiz and the others doing their share we should be fine in hitting. The team must come to Spring Training with the right frame of mind along with another starting pitcher who we must sign or trade for and hopefully another RH bat not named McDonald. With Bailey as closer I think things are starting to look up, and I also think Melancon is going to be a very pleasant surprise.[/quote']

 

Assuming we have the three certain SP and Bard and we get another one, we will still need some depth at that position. You cannot go into the season with just five SP. Its likely we should have access to 7 or 8. Doubront is a possibility; so is Aceves for an occasional spot start. Who else is there?

Our old buddy Tim Wakefield. Don't get me wrong; I am dead set against that selfish jerk setting foot on the mound again for this team, but its concerning to say the least that the FO has not definitively put him out to pasture. I have a sneaking suspicion that we will be "priviledged" to see Wakefield on the mound for us going for the record. As he said "The fans deserve to see me go for the record".

Jerk.

[cljunior]

I'm in agreement with that Mannyhof and I think I said something similar a couple of days ago. Certainly if those two make decent comebacks our attack should be as good as any in baseball. The key is to stay healthy (Youk) and have the right frame of mind (Crawford) With those two along with Pedroia' date=' Ellsbury, Gonzales, Ortiz and the others doing their share we should be fine in hitting. The team must come to Spring Training with the right frame of mind along with another starting pitcher who we must sign or trade for and hopefully another RH bat not named McDonald. With Bailey as closer I think things are starting to look up, and I also think Melancon is going to be a very pleasant surprise.[/quote']

I think it might be a good idea to rotate Aviles or someone into 3B at least once a week to try and alleviate Youkilis from playing everyday. From previous years experience, it would seem that Youk is going to have trouble playing 160 games. Pity Aviles is a RHB. If we had a LH 3B backup, we could rotate them into the line up against some RHP starters, that would make more sense.

[cljunior]

What about Tazawa possibly? He was back in the minor leagues, not amazing, but probably someone that could make a spot start if need be hopefully. Can't be any worse than Miller or Weiland right?

 

I think Aceves is far too critical as a long reliever to make him a starter. If we have a starter that is tanking, having Aceves pitch innings any of the 4/5/6/7 is such a valuable commodity. I don't think anyone else in our bullpen is capable of doing this well ...

[example1]

With Kalish out until midseason with labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder' date=' I have a feeling the sox arent done. Sweeney is a gap guy, someone who you dont want to lean on for a full season, but a good 4th OFer type who can plug a gap. Thing is, Kalish wont be able to play RF for awhile and at that point, he'll still effectively be a rookie who has had marginal time at AAA and is coming off 1.5 yrs of injury. And with a labrum injury, how effective will his throwing arm be? Is he a guy you expect can man one of the toughest RFs in the game with a bum shoulder? I think the sox have a plan and are going to execute it prior to ST. They have to have someone else in mind.[/quote']

 

Aggressively pursuing Cespedes would make some sense.

[Palodios]

Aggressively pursuing Cespedes would make some sense.

 

Interesting thought. What concerns me is how long it would take for him to adjust to the major leagues. If he's not performing until around the time Kalish gets back, the timing on that would not be so great.

[a700hitter]

Aggressively pursuing Cespedes would make some sense.

The new information about Kalish's unavailability throws a bit of a wrench into things. I think he woulkd have gotten the bulk of PT in RF sharing it with a platoon RH OFer. This forces them to make some OF move, because right now their OF is crawford, Ellsbury, Sweeney and D Mac/ Aviles. That's just horrible. D Mac is terrible. It's great that Aviles is working hard in Winter Ball to learn to play the OF, but RF in Boston requires a top fielding outfield, and I can't see Aviles getting to that level. I don't know much about Cespedes. Andruw Jones is still out there and he is a good RH platoon choice who can play all 3 OF positions. He is still comparatively young despite the gut that he is carrying around. Maybe if he shows that he is in shape, the Sox can give him the opportunity to win the full time job before Kalish comes back.

[Deebs]

The new information about Kalish's unavailability throws a bit of a wrench into things. I think he woulkd have gotten the bulk of PT in RF sharing it with a platoon RH OFer. This forces them to make some OF move' date=' because right now their OF is crawford, Ellsbury, Sweeney and D Mac/ Aviles. That's just horrible. D Mac is terrible. It's great that Aviles is working hard in Winter Ball to learn to play the OF, but RF in Boston requires a top fielding outfield, and I can't see Aviles getting to that level. I don't know much about Cespedes. Andruw Jones is still out there and he is a good RH platoon choice who can play all 3 OF positions. He is still comparatively young despite the gut that he is carrying around. Maybe if he shows that he is in shape, the Sox can give him the opportunity to win the full time job before Kalish comes back.[/quote']

 

The Red Sox slash line from right field last year was .233/.302/.671 . Sweeney's last year was .265/.346/.687. Again, pretty much anythng we put out in right field should be an improvement over what we had last year. We should see a fair amount of improvement from Crawford as well.

 

Andruw Jones would be a nice addition, but the focus right now should be on getting another starting pitcher and adding a couple of other arms for depth.

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox slash line from right field last year was .233/.302/.671 . Sweeney's last year was .265/.346/.687. Again' date=' pretty much anythng we put out in right field should be an improvement over what we had last year. We [i']should[/i] see a fair amount of improvement from Crawford as well.

 

Andruw Jones would be a nice addition, but the focus right now should be on getting another starting pitcher and adding a couple of other arms for depth.

They can do two things at the same time.

[example1]

I must be the only one who is totally bored by the idea of Andruw Jones. He used to be exciting but not anymore. Not that it matters AT ALL if I'm bored...

 

Jones would be alright. Cespedes makes more sense. He's a bit expensive but they will have a guy with power and speed in his prime, a RH OF who has to be able to beat a .700 OPS. Plus, that would ultimately make Kalish the 4th OF, he can play all three OF positions, and can take Ellsburys spot when he inevitably leaves as a FA. The Sox haven't spent much this year and I would be happy for them to pursue the Cuban for a position of obvious need.

[a700hitter]

I must be the only one who is totally bored by the idea of Andruw Jones. He used to be exciting but not anymore. Not that it matters AT ALL if I'm bored...

 

Jones would be alright. Cespedes makes more sense. He's a bit expensive but they will have a guy with power and speed in his prime, a RH OF who has to be able to beat a .700 OPS. Plus, that would ultimately make Kalish the 4th OF, he can play all three OF positions, and can take Ellsburys spot when he inevitably leaves as a FA. The Sox haven't spent much this year and I would be happy for them to pursue the Cuban for a position of obvious need.

Wouldn't Cespedes be a roll of the dice (an expensive one) because he has not faced major or minor league competition? Recently, the Cuban who have defected to come to the US have been disappointments. Jones may be boring but his performance and capabilities are known quantities. Maybe he will whip his butt into shape a bit and step up his production.

[example1]

If he didn't whip himself into shape for the Yankees I suspect he won't for Boston.

 

As for Cespedes, yes, he's a risk. However, he may cost less than comparable free agents would. Ultimately it comes down to the Sox scouting and front office to make that call. I'm intrigued by his tools. Also, I would love to be excited by another acquisition.

[BSN07]

I'd be ok with them going with Sweeney/Aviles/Mcdonald in RF. There are not any real great options or fits currently available IMO. They could go with those 3, then see how Kalish is doing and/or see who is available at the TDL.

 

After that I think they need to look into SP depth. I take it right now Miller, Tazawa and Doubront are the pitchers in the minors for depth currently(I admit I'm a little behind, just really getting back into things since the end of the season). I think they should sign Harden and Webb both to one year deals(possibly minor league) worth 1M base +500K-1M in incentives. Let them battle it out for the 5th spot. If Bard can't handle starting the other one can jump in. Those 5 guys should provide enough depth until June-July when they can re-evaluate the SP trade market. The only trade that makes sense right now is Garza. But I'm torn about giving up the prospects. One side of me thinks he be a great 3-4 for this win now team. And giving up prospects who are probably blocked wouldn't be so bad.

 

I would rather they sign the low risk guys for short money and hold on to the prospects, let the Mariners get a taste of what life is now gonna be like with the Rangers and Mariners becoming NY and Boston west and try and pry Pineda or Felix away from their cold dead fingers Maybe not Felix, but if Seattle misses out on Fielder they might listen. If they sign him, no chance either one gets moved.

[example1]

I'm sure they would sign Harden or Webb if either were willing to sign a minor league deal. Unfortunately, the dozens of other teams who might need pitching could limit that. Harden seems like a cheaper, riskier version of Oswalt.

 

Given the availability of guys like that, I can see why Ben is holding out until the particles (pitchers) have settled at the bottom and he can pick the best of the remains.

[a700hitter]

If he didn't whip himself into shape for the Yankees I suspect he won't for Boston.

 

As for Cespedes, yes, he's a risk. However, he may cost less than comparable free agents would. Ultimately it comes down to the Sox scouting and front office to make that call. I'm intrigued by his tools. Also, I would love to be excited by another acquisition.

The Yanks never offered him the chance to win the full time job. He knew they were committed to Gardner.

[a700hitter]

I'm sure they would sign Harden or Webb if either were willing to sign a minor league deal. Unfortunately, the dozens of other teams who might need pitching could limit that. Harden seems like a cheaper, riskier version of Oswalt.

 

Given the availability of guys like that, I can see why Ben is holding out until the particles (pitchers) have settled at the bottom and he can pick the best of the remains.

Guys like Harden, Webb and Sheets might not be able to take the ball at all. I don't see the point of pursuing any one of them.