Lackey to the Padres?

[Palodios]

I saw somewhere that someone from one of the minor league ranking systems said he would probably be in the top 15 for the Sox. Not top 5 necessarily. That's probably a combination of his age and ability' date=' rather than his current ability. He's almost MLB ready but the Sox have guys with much higher upside.[/quote']

 

Well, the recent report says that Nutty isn't in the deal.

[Palodios]

I'm not a doctor' date=' so I'll leave it to the medical profession, but my understanding of elbow problems are that they don't respond well to rehabbing, because tendons and not muscles are involved. Rest might help, but if you are a pitcher that has recurring elbow issues, you are probably headed to TJ surgery. Get rid of him. He is a sinking ship. Granted that it would be hard to do worse than this season, but I don't see him as being a productive member of the rotation going forward.[/quote']

 

Look at it from the other angle. If there was a pitcher on the open market that was a year away from a 4.40 ERA, 200 inning season available for 3/5, would you take him? Sure he has personal issues, and a terrible 2011, but he's relatively healthy, in his early 30s, and is a former all-star. We're talking 5 million for three years on a buy-low candidate.

 

Put this in perspective... the Red Sox nearly paid 3/3.3 million for the last three years of Junichi Tazawa.

[a700hitter]

Look at it from the other angle. If there was a pitcher on the open market that was a year away from a 4.40 ERA, 200 inning season available for 3/5, would you take him? Sure he has personal issues, and a terrible 2011, but he's relatively healthy, in his early 30s, and is a former all-star. We're talking 5 million for three years on a buy-low candidate.

 

Put this in perspective... the Red Sox nearly paid 3/3.3 million for the last three years of Junichi Tazawa.

Who cares what he is does at Petco. He will not get the same results at Fenway. Plus, his elbow is probably ready to explode. Get rid of him.

[Palodios]

Who cares what he is does at Petco. He will not get the same results at Fenway. Plus' date=' his elbow is probably ready to explode. Get rid of him.[/quote']

 

Would you be willing to pay 3/5 on a buy low candidate who is twelve months off from a solid year?

[a700hitter]

Would you be willing to pay 3/5 on a buy low candidate who is twelve months off from a solid year?

But the Sox are not getting him for 3/5 of the price. Look at it this way, the Sox could pay 40% and avoid a similar disastrous season or his his loss to the DL.

[Palodios]

But the Sox are not getting him for 3/5 of the price. Look at it this way' date=' the Sox could pay 40% and avoid a similar disastrous season or his his loss to the DL.[/quote']

 

They paid 80 million for him. But they're not getting that back. The difference between this team having Lackey and not having Lackey is 3 years/5 million dollars. If he sucks in 2012, DFA his ass.

[a700hitter]

They paid 80 million for him. But they're not getting that back. The difference between this team having Lackey and not having Lackey is 3 years/5 million dollars. If he sucks in 2012' date=' DFA his ass.[/quote']And if he sucks again in 2012, he puts a big hole right in the rotation and forces the team to look to add an arm during the season. Why take the chance? There really is so much more downside than upside if they keep him.

[iortiz]

I'm not sure how much money SD is putting on the table, but at least I would use the remaining money as a part to bring another decent SP or something.

 

It is definitely not a good business but We won't see any penny back from him anyway --As I said, Lackey wasn't profitable even in 2010 in terms of ROI (I already shared the table) -- so... I've seen enough from him. IMO he is done. so... We should turn the page, and unfortunately eat great part of his contract.

 

80 MTheollars, Huh?... That hurts.

[Cask N Flagon 76]

From what i hear this deal is on the cusp of being done. I for one will support Lackey if he is on

this team next year but i must say the leash will be very very short.

[Laser Show]

From what i hear this deal is on the cusp of being done. I for one will support Lackey if he is on

this team next year but i must say the leash will be very very short.

 

I don't know how you could. Damn near every other teams #5 starter outperformed him last year. The way he was pitching, he MAY have made the AAA club as the 5th starter.

[Cask N Flagon 76]

I don't know how you could. Damn near every other teams #5 starter outperformed him last year. The way he was pitching' date=' he MAY have made the AAA club as the 5th starter.[/quote']

 

 

I agree but why not see if this year was just a complete failure and see how he performs this coming year before we throw him to the wolves". I do agree with you though that

he could have been a 5th starter for any AAA team but with the slim pickings in FA i don't

see any other choice this year coming up.

[Cask N Flagon 76]

Please forgive the way the sentences broke up my apologies.

[Laser Show]

He's been god-awful for 2 years now. I think his time is up.

[Laser Show]

Year Age WAR

2002 23 0.9

2003 24 0.1

2004 25 2.2

2005 26 4.6

2006 27 4.7

2007 28 6.3

2008 29 3.6

2009 30 2.9

2010 31 1.8

2011 32 -1.2

 

Know what this looks like to me? John Lackey's rise, peak, and decline. There's no reason to believe he will EVER become the pitcher he once was.

[Dojji]

Year Age WAR

2002 23 0.9

2003 24 0.1

2004 25 2.2

2005 26 4.6

2006 27 4.7

2007 28 6.3

2008 29 3.6

2009 30 2.9

2010 31 1.8

2011 32 -1.2

 

Know what this looks like to me? John Lackey's rise, peak, and decline. There's no reason to believe he will EVER become the pitcher he once was.

 

That's pretty convincing. Nothing definite, but a strong indicator.

[Cask N Flagon 76]

Year Age WAR

2002 23 0.9

2003 24 0.1

2004 25 2.2

2005 26 4.6

2006 27 4.7

2007 28 6.3

2008 29 3.6

2009 30 2.9

2010 31 1.8

2011 32 -1.2

 

Know what this looks like to me? John Lackey's rise, peak, and decline. There's no reason to believe he will EVER become the pitcher he once was.

 

 

Please forgive me but i'm old school baseball and have no idea what WAR means. I'm not trying to insult you in anyway believe me.

[iortiz]

Year Age WAR

2002 23 0.9

2003 24 0.1

2004 25 2.2

2005 26 4.6

2006 27 4.7

2007 28 6.3

2008 29 3.6

2009 30 2.9

2010 31 1.8

2011 32 -1.2

 

Know what this looks like to me? John Lackey's rise, peak, and decline. There's no reason to believe he will EVER become the pitcher he once was.

 

Hell, This reminds me the Runaway Train chorus by Soul Asylum

 

"RUNAWAY TRAIN NEVER GOING BACK

WRONG WAY ON A ONE WAY TRACK

SEEMS LIKE I SHOULD BE GETTING SOMEWHERE

SOMEHOW I’M NEITHER HERE NOR THERE..."

 

[Laser Show]

Please forgive me but i'm old school baseball and have no idea what WAR means. I'm not trying to insult you in anyway believe me.

 

From Wikipedia: Wins Above Replacement, commonly known as WAR, is a non-standardized sabermetric baseball statistic that is used to show how many more wins a player would give a team as opposed to a "replacement level", or minor league/bench player at that position.

 

Basically, it tells the value of the player, higher numbers = better. Anything above 8.0 is MVP level, I think 5-8 is all-star, 2-5 starter, 0-2 benchplayer, and sub-0 is John Lackey / AJ Burnett 2011.

[Cask N Flagon 76]

From Wikipedia: Wins Above Replacement, commonly known as WAR, is a non-standardized sabermetric baseball statistic that is used to show how many more wins a player would give a team as opposed to a "replacement level", or minor league/bench player at that position.

 

Basically, it tells the value of the player, higher numbers = better. Anything above 8.0 is MVP level, I think 5-8 is all-star, 2-5 starter, 0-2 benchplayer, and sub-0 is John Lackey / AJ Burnett 2011.

 

 

Thank you appreciate man. So Lackey peaked around 2007 as per the WAR LOL.

[iortiz]

Please forgive me but i'm old school baseball and have no idea what WAR means. I'm not trying to insult you in anyway believe me.

 

It's ok man. Don't worry. If you think that about Lackey, I respect that, but still I don't see how he could come back, but that's me, anyway...

 

You will notice that some people here use advanced stats (sabermetrics ) in order to support their arguments like WAR.

 

"Wins Above Replacement, commonly known as WAR, is a non-standardized sabermetric baseball statistic that is used to show how many more wins a player would give a team as opposed to a "replacement level", or minor league/bench player at that position". --WIKI

 

If you like stats, you can find the meaning and some tables of advanced stats here

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/

 

Welcome, again.

[Cask N Flagon 76]

It's ok man. Don't worry. If you think that about Lackey, I respect that, but still I don't see how he could come back, but that's me, anyway...

 

You will notice that some people here use advanced stats (sabermetrics ) in order to support their arguments like WAR.

 

"Wins Above Replacement, commonly known as WAR, is a non-standardized sabermetric baseball statistic that is used to show how many more wins a player would give a team as opposed to a "replacement level", or minor league/bench player at that position". --WIKI

 

If you like stats, you can find the meaning and some tables of advanced stats here

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/

 

Welcome, again.

 

 

Thanks for the clarification appreciate it". It's hard coming from a guy who's been watching baseball for over 20 years but just for the love of the game and here comes

all these wonderful little stats ala 21st century lol.

[Cask N Flagon 76]

Believe me ortiz i don't think he will come back either maybe we can find a middle of the rotation guy who knows.

[Dojji]

Please forgive me but i'm old school baseball and have no idea what WAR means. I'm not trying to insult you in anyway believe me.

 

Wins Above Replacement.

 

They pick a value that they think any AAAA player should perform at, and decide somehow if you're producing more whns than the blue-collar schmo they could call up in your place.

 

Lackey was worth less than you could expect to get out of a replacement pitcher last year. He would have literally had to pay the team to play here to be worth a cent.

[iortiz]

From Wikipedia: Wins Above Replacement, commonly known as WAR, is a non-standardized sabermetric baseball statistic that is used to show how many more wins a player would give a team as opposed to a "replacement level", or minor league/bench player at that position.

 

Basically, it tells the value of the player, higher numbers = better. Anything above 8.0 is MVP level, I think 5-8 is all-star, 2-5 starter, 0-2 benchplayer, and sub-0 is John Lackey / AJ Burnett 2011.

 

 

Where would you put 2011 Crawford? He is on the edge. He is 0 WAR; in the bench list or in the J.L./AJ classification?

[Dojji]

Thanks for the clarification appreciate it". It's hard coming from a guy who's been watching baseball for over 20 years but just for the love of the game and here comes

all these wonderful little stats ala 21st century lol.

 

THey've been around since the 70's actually, it's just taken them awhile to circulate down to the masses.

 

It's just numerating stuff that people already knew anyway. After all, we knew Wade Boggs was extremely utterly good without OBP to tell us. And in some cases, advanced stats serve to tell us that a guy we thought was pretty good, turned out to have been even better than we thought

 

Classic example: Dwight Evans. Always loved as a great RF with a bit of punch, more than a bit in his heyday, but not always the highest BA. Now we know that he was a walkaholic too and a very disciplined hitter in his own right in a lineup that already boasted disciplined studs like Rice and Boggs. Finished up with .100 IsoD, making him one of the most disciplined and effective hitters of his day. At his peak put up an elite-level .400 OBP to go with his pretty-danged-good .290 averages. All this to say, he was better than we maybe thought he was at a few things like working the count and getting the most out o his trips to the plate.

[Palodios]

Year Age WAR

2002 23 0.9

2003 24 0.1

2004 25 2.2

2005 26 4.6

2006 27 4.7

2007 28 6.3

2008 29 3.6

2009 30 2.9

2010 31 1.8

2011 32 -1.2

 

Know what this looks like to me? John Lackey's rise, peak, and decline. There's no reason to believe he will EVER become the pitcher he once was.

 

Fangraphs paints a very different picture.

 

2006 27 6.0

2007 28 5.6

2008 29 2.0

2009 30 3.8

2010 31 4.1

2011 32 1.5

 

This is a guy who is a year away from a 4.1 WAR.

[iortiz]

Believe me ortiz i don't think he will come back either maybe we can find a middle of the rotation guy who knows.

 

Which ERA range would you expect from him? I would expect and being optimistic a 5.0+ ERA which is something in the middle at 2010-2011; 1.4 pts. below his 2011 record (6.4) and 0.6 pts above his 2010 record (4.4). If this even happens, I don't want him at any part of our rotation, do you?

 

What worries me the most about Lackey beyond the stats is his delivery the last years. It is getting worse and worse. His fast ball is a complete joke.

 

But That's me.

[Cask N Flagon 76]

Which range of ERA would you expect from him? I would expect and being optimistic a 5.0+ ERA which is something in the middle in 2010-2011; 1.4 pts. below his 2011 record (6.4) and 0.6 pts above his 2010 record (4.4). If this even happens, I don't want him at any part of our rotation, do you?

 

What worries me the most about Lackey beyond the stats is his delivery the last years. It is getting worse and worse. His fast ball is a complete joke.

 

But That's me.

 

Yea from what i saw he was not getting full extension on his release this year and has not

been for a couple years now". Hey why not a swap of Lackey and harang straight up. I

do not expect his era to go any higher then this past season either but i would be like you

and say around high 4's low 5's.

[Laser Show]

Fangraphs paints a very different picture.

 

2006 27 6.0

2007 28 5.6

2008 29 2.0

2009 30 3.8

2010 31 4.1

2011 32 1.5

 

This is a guy who is a year away from a 4.1 WAR.

 

Fangraphs also has him listed as the 26th best SP in 2010, ahead of Clay Buchholz, Tim Hudson, David Price, Mat Latos, Chris Carpenter, Trevor Cahill, Cole Hamels, and Matt Cain.

 

Do you honestly agree with that?

[iortiz]

Fangraphs also has him listed as the 26th best SP in 2010, ahead of Clay Buchholz, Tim Hudson, David Price, Mat Latos, Chris Carpenter, Trevor Cahill, Cole Hamels, and Matt Cain.

 

Do you honestly agree with that?

 

They should recall it the optimisticfangraphs