2011 - 2012 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

I doesn't appear to look that way. I honeslty believe despite what happened last year, the Red Sox were in a better position not to make too many major moves. The Yankees pitching going into the offseason was in no way sustainable, and they HAD to make a few moves.

 

The Red Sox still have a great (when healthy) 1-3 combo with Lester, Beckett and Clay. Now move Bard to the rotation and make some decent bulpen signings and you still have a pretty strong pitching staff.

 

As far as offense goes, AROD looked terrible last year and may be falling off a performance cliff... Jeter is 38 this year and even Tex is getting to his low to mid 30's. The only sure bet to repeat last years performance is Cano. Granderson will be good, but I doubt highly that he repeats last years performance.

 

The Red Sox still have AGONZ (29), Pedroia (28) and Ellsbury (28) all in their prime. I said early it stands that Granderson comes down, and Carl Crawford should go WAY up.

 

Bottom line, even as terrible as last year ended the Yankees were still in worse position heading into 2012 and had to make moves to counter that. I still look at the overall talent level on both teams after these latest yankees moves and call it a wash. Sure the sox need a few things to break there way, but I honestly think they will.

But the yankees took care of business and made the moves that they needed to make. We did not. Yes we have a strong top three, and hopefully Bard will be solid, but we have no #5 and zero depth. That will be something that will burn us.

[User Name]

The problem is that, right now, Yankee pitching is head and shoulders above Red Sox pitching on paper.

 

That being said, we could catch lightning in a bottle with a couple of our "depth" signings. The way Murphy's Law has been f***ing the Red Sox over the last couple of years, they're bound to catch a break.

[User Name]

But the yankees took care of business and made the moves that they needed to make. We did not. Yes we have a strong top three' date=' and hopefully Bard will be solid, but we have no #5 and zero depth. That will be something that will burn us.[/quote']

 

Zero depth?

 

They've got massive depth. What they don't have is an established #4 starter.

[MANNYHOF24]

The problem is that' date=' right now, Yankee pitching is head and shoulders above Red Sox pitching on paper.[/b']

 

That being said, we could catch lightning in a bottle with a couple of our "depth" signings. The way Murphy's Law has been f***ing the Red Sox over the last couple of years, they're bound to catch a break.

 

I honestly don't really agree...

 

 

I think CC and Lester are almost a wash this year.

 

Beckett is better than Pienda.

 

Buchholz if healthy is more established and had better numbers in 2010 then Nova had in 2011.

 

Bard is a huge question mark but the HUGE upside exists with him. I honestly think Hughes and Bard are a wash, just based on how hugely in consistent Phill has been since he has been a Yankee.

 

Garcia/Burnett versus Red Sox 5th starter slop- advatange Yankees... but it may not be as big as people think. I think they should get decent production out of a Silva/Cook/Padilla combo.... I think Garcia caught lightning in a bottle last year, and will not pitch nearly as well this year. Who knows what happens with Burnett, he was bad last year but he obviously still has a lot of talent. He may be gone though.

 

 

Also another wildcard- DiceK could be back by July 1... if he is healthy he will be pitching for some kind of contract in 2013 and might actually be effective.

 

 

Do you disagree with that breakdown? I think starting pitching is not a huge advantage for New York.

[a700hitter]

I honestly don't really agree...

 

 

I think CC and Lester are almost a wash this year.

 

Beckett is better than Pienda.

 

Buchholz if healthy is more established and had better numbers in 2010 then Nova had in 2011.

 

Bard is a huge question mark but the HUGE upside exists with him. I honestly think Hughes and Bard are a wash, just based on how hugely in consistent Phill has been since he has been a Yankee.

 

Garcia/Burnett versus Red Sox 5th starter slop- advatange Yankees... but it may not be as big as people think. I think they should get decent production out of a Silva/Cook/Padilla combo.... I think Garcia caught lightning in a bottle last year, and will not pitch nearly as well this year. Who knows what happens with Burnett, he was bad last year but he obviously still has a lot of talent. He may be gone though.

 

 

Also another wildcard- DiceK could be back by July 1... if he is healthy he will be pitching for some kind of contract in 2013 and might actually be effective.

 

 

Do you disagree with that breakdown? I think starting pitching is not a huge advantage for New York.

You left out Kuroda.

[MANNYHOF24]

You left out Kuroda.

 

my argument is dead.

[User Name]

I honestly don't really agree...

 

 

I think CC and Lester are almost a wash this year.

 

Beckett is better than Pienda.

 

Buchholz if healthy is more established and had better numbers in 2010 then Nova had in 2011.

 

Bard is a huge question mark but the HUGE upside exists with him. I honestly think Hughes and Bard are a wash, just based on how hugely in consistent Phill has been since he has been a Yankee.

 

Garcia/Burnett versus Red Sox 5th starter slop- advatange Yankees... but it may not be as big as people think. I think they should get decent production out of a Silva/Cook/Padilla combo.... I think Garcia caught lightning in a bottle last year, and will not pitch nearly as well this year. Who knows what happens with Burnett, he was bad last year but he obviously still has a lot of talent. He may be gone though.

 

 

Also another wildcard- DiceK could be back by July 1... if he is healthy he will be pitching for some kind of contract in 2013 and might actually be effective.

 

 

Do you disagree with that breakdown? I think starting pitching is not a huge advantage for New York.

 

I didn't say starting pitching because i meant pitching in general.

 

The Yankees have a deeper starting staff (5 legitimate starters) even though the top three favors the Red Sox. However, the BP's are not even close. The Yankees had (considering their home park) a top-three relief corps in the MLB.

[a700hitter]

my argument is dead.

Not really. They are still likely to go after next year's top pitching FA's. They will not have Kuroda or Garcia, and Hughes is a nice piece of trade bait.

[Meh]

I honestly don't really agree...

 

 

I think CC and Lester are almost a wash this year.

 

Beckett is better than Pienda.

 

Buchholz if healthy is more established and had better numbers in 2010 then Nova had in 2011.

 

Bard is a huge question mark but the HUGE upside exists with him. I honestly think Hughes and Bard are a wash, just based on how hugely in consistent Phill has been since he has been a Yankee.

 

Garcia/Burnett versus Red Sox 5th starter slop- advatange Yankees... but it may not be as big as people think. I think they should get decent production out of a Silva/Cook/Padilla combo.... I think Garcia caught lightning in a bottle last year, and will not pitch nearly as well this year. Who knows what happens with Burnett, he was bad last year but he obviously still has a lot of talent. He may be gone though.

 

 

Also another wildcard- DiceK could be back by July 1... if he is healthy he will be pitching for some kind of contract in 2013 and might actually be effective.

 

 

Do you disagree with that breakdown? I think starting pitching is not a huge advantage for New York.

 

CC is an Ace. There's probably like 7 ace type pitchers in baseball, Lee, CC, Halladay, Verlander, Kershaw, Lincecum and maybe Felix. Not in that order either. Lester is a #1 but I wouldn't call him an ace. CC has the advantage over Lester, this year anyway. I think Lester starts maturing a bit more and CC will start to decline in years to come. Still a close call though.

 

I will say Beckett is better than Pineda but I think the difference there washes away the difference between CC and Lester. I just think both have down years from their 2011 seasons.

 

Nova and Buchholz is pretty close too... I think I should of put Kuroda here but I like this match better cause they're around the same age. Both had good stuff, Buchholz has better stuff but Nova's the better pitcher if that makes sense. I'd give the advantage to Buchholz though.

 

Kurado vs Bard, not close....

 

Hughes/Garcia/AJ vs Aceves/Padilla/Cook/Miller. If you take the worst Yankee starter here, AJ and the best red sox have to offer here... Aceves I think the Yankees will take it. Cause AJ will give you 200 innings and Aceves pitched 110 inning last year, so even if he's really good, you might not see him over 150 innings.

[Meh]

Not really. They are still likely to go after next year's top pitching FA's. They will not have Kuroda or Garcia' date=' and Hughes is a nice piece of trade bait.[/quote']

 

Also AJ with one year left, assuming he's healthy and we're willing to eat 8 million could be easy to move, much like Derek Lowe was.

[User Name]

CC is an Ace. There's probably like 7 ace type pitchers in baseball, Lee, CC, Halladay, Verlander, Kershaw, Lincecum and maybe Felix. Not in that order either. Lester is a #1 but I wouldn't call him an ace. CC has the advantage over Lester, this year anyway. I think Lester starts maturing a bit more and CC will start to decline in years to come. Still a close call though.

 

I will say Beckett is better than Pineda but I think the difference there washes away the difference between CC and Lester. I just think both have down years from their 2011 seasons.

 

Nova and Buchholz is pretty close too... I think I should of put Kuroda here but I like this match better cause they're around the same age. Both had good stuff, Buchholz has better stuff but Nova's the better pitcher if that makes sense. I'd give the advantage to Buchholz though.

 

Kurado vs Bard, not close....

 

Hughes/Garcia/AJ vs Aceves/Padilla/Cook/Miller. If you take the worst Yankee starter here, AJ and the best red sox have to offer here... Aceves I think the Yankees will take it. Cause AJ will give you 200 innings and Aceves pitched 110 inning last year, so even if he's really good, you might not see him over 150 innings.

 

Funny, because over the last three years, Lester has been essentially the same pitcher as CC. Even with Lester's down year last year, ERA + 140 to 139 favoring CC.

 

Also, Burnett didn't pitch 200 innings neither last year nor the year before. So how is he now a certainty to throw 200 innings?

 

I know this is really difficult for you, but how about some objectivity?

[jacksonianmarch]

They haven't been the same pitchers. CC's WAR was 18.7 to Lester's 15.8 over those three seasons. CC's seasons may be matched individually, but he effectively puts up the same season year after yr. Beckett also has the capability to match CC but lacks the consistency.

[jacksonianmarch]

I take the Yankee rotation right now due to a few things. First off, the yanks have 7 proven big league starters and a farm system stocked to the gills with talent. The sox have 3 proven MLB starters, 2 relievers, a guy with an imploded shoulder (Cook) and a reclamation project coming off neck surgery in Padilla

 

Second, the injury factor. Buchholz is coming off a fractured vertebrae. Nobody knows how he returns. Beckett is entering an even yr, which for some strange reason seems to mean he sucks. J/k, he always seems to get out of shape after a good season and get hurt. Then he gets motivated after a rough yr, gets in shape and dominates. Lester, even in an off yr, is a top notch pitcher. Regardless, the Yankee rotation has youth, experience, power, endurance, and depth. It's gonna be hard to top

[User Name]

They haven't been the same pitchers. CC's WAR was 18.7 to Lester's 15.8 over those three seasons. CC's seasons may be matched individually' date=' but he effectively puts up the same season year after yr. Beckett also has the capability to match CC but lacks the consistency.[/quote']

 

I thought WAR wasn't the be-all, end-all?

 

The only advantage CC has over Lester is IP, which coincidentally, heavily impacts WAR. Cherry-picking FTW.

[User Name]

I take the Yankee rotation right now due to a few things. First off, the yanks have 7 proven big league starters and a farm system stocked to the gills with talent. The sox have 3 proven MLB starters, 2 relievers, a guy with an imploded shoulder (Cook) and a reclamation project coming off neck surgery in Padilla

 

Second, the injury factor. Buchholz is coming off a fractured vertebrae. Nobody knows how he returns. Beckett is entering an even yr, which for some strange reason seems to mean he sucks. J/k, he always seems to get out of shape after a good season and get hurt. Then he gets motivated after a rough yr, gets in shape and dominates. Lester, even in an off yr, is a top notch pitcher. Regardless, the Yankee rotation has youth, experience, power, endurance, and depth. It's gonna be hard to top

 

They have four starters, three what-ifs, and a good farm system. Let's not pat ourselves on the back too back here lest we pull a lat muscle.

[jacksonianmarch]

Garcia is a bit more than a what if, as is Burnett

[jacksonianmarch]

I thought WAR wasn't the be-all, end-all?

 

The only advantage CC has over Lester is IP, which coincidentally, heavily impacts WAR. Cherry-picking FTW.

 

IP isn't important? Wasn't that your biggest problem last yr?

[User Name]

I'm not saying it's not important. I'm saying the IP difference is not enough to claim massive superiority of CC over Lester. Let's be honest. 2009-2010 Lester was arguably better than CC. There are no reasons for us to think that Lester couldn't be arguably better than CC in 2012 again.

[User Name]

Garcia is a bit more than a what if' date=' as is Burnett[/quote']

 

They are both what ifs. So is Hughes. If you don't think so, present an argument to the contrary.

[Meh]

They have four starters' date=' three what-ifs, [b']and a good farm system[/b]. Let's not pat ourselves on the back too back here lest we pull a lat muscle.

 

CB: What grade would you give the Yankees farm system (A, B, C, D, or F)?

 

JC: When we were ranking on farm system rankings for the Prospect Handbook, I had the Yankees at No. 9, while other editors ranked them from No. 2 to No. 6. They take a little bit of a hit with the Montero trade, though I really like Jose Campos, whom they got back in the deal. I’d give them a solid B.

 

http://ht.ly/8xHaZ

 

John Manuel said they were going to be in the top 5 in the book, again this is before the Montero trade so thats going to hurt them but not as bad as straight losing him cause we did get Campos back and Noesi had lost his rookie status anyway.

[User Name]

I would give it a B+, simply because even though they gave up Noesi and Montero, they are rich in the two most valuable commodities in MLB: Catchers who can hit and SP.

[Meh]

I would give it a B+' date=' simply because even though they gave up Noesi and Montero, they are rich in the two most valuable commodities in MLB: Catchers who can hit and SP.[/quote']

 

Well Noesi wasn't a prospect anymore. Callis has always been BA's dark knight against the Yankees where as Manuel has been more favoriable. Both are Red Sox fans, although Manuel did stop liking them after 2005 after seeing the transformation of the fanbase.

[User Name]

Well Noesi wasn't a prospect anymore. Callis has always been BA's dark knight against the Yankees where as Manuel has been more favoriable. Both are Red Sox fans' date=' although Manuel did stop liking them after 2005 after seeing the transformation of the fanbase.[/quote']

 

Do you find the rating reasonable though? I think it's fair.

[Meh]

Do you find the rating reasonable though? I think it's fair.

 

B+? Yeah I think it's a B+

[jacksonianmarch]

Depending on how our young kids up the middle do this yr, we could creep into the A range. Seems every yr cashman has a focus in the draft, which turns into our next wave. With Ravel Santana, Mason Williams, a healthy Slade Heathcott and Jake Cave getting in another season, we could really jump. We also have seen quite an influx of infield talent as well, the only real weakness I still see in the farm is corner OF spots. We don't have a progressing young corner OF with power.

[jacksonianmarch]

Cashman said he expects to make a trade for his DH, most likely from his plethora of SP. That either means he's going to make a bad contract for bad contract swap with AJ for a primary DH type or he's angling Hughes for a cost controlled defensive butcher with a big stick. He cannot move Garcia and he shouldnt move any of the top 4. My guess is he is going to find a taker for AJ in a salary swap for an overpaid DH who is butchering a defensive position.

 

Maybe the Yankees can trade AJ Burnett for Carlos Lee. That deal straight up would net the Astros out with 2 yrs of Burnett at $7 mil per and rid themselves of a guy with no position and no worth to the club. It could also offer Lee the capability to right his career in a pennant race.

 

I could also see the Yankees targetting Billy Butler. The guy would mash in this lineup.

[Meh]

Hughes and Laird for Pedro Alveraz and Garrit Jones?

 

Burnett for Lee, has been my dream since we trade for Pineda.

 

I wouldn't mind Soriano for Burnett, if the Cubs picked up the extra cash and threw in a C prospect with decent upside.

 

I'd stay as far as I could from Bay.

 

Buying low on Brandon Allen from the A's could be a nice get or even see if they would be willing to part with Daric Barton.

[User Name]

Why would the Cubs, who are rebuilding, take on a bad contract swap and kick in money and a prospect? That's as unrealistic as it gets.

[Meh]

Why would the Cubs' date=' who are rebuilding, take on a bad contract swap and kick in money and a prospect? That's as unrealistic as it gets.[/quote']

 

Who is going to take Soriano off their hands? At least they'd get a pitcher who could give them innings while they rebuild.

[User Name]

Who is going to take Soriano off their hands? At least they'd get a pitcher who could give them innings while they rebuild.

 

It's a bad contract for a bad contract plus money and a prospect. They'd be better off keeping Soriano for three years or waiting to dump him and his whole salary on someone, or wait for someone who, you know, gives them a prospect if they throw money in.