2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[jung]

The Sox have another $130M invested in Crawford. Forget the put him at the bottom of the order nonsense.

 

You are going to take a guy you have that kind of money into that has already told you publicly and with a fair bit of emotion that he has an issue with batting down in the order and put him down in the order insisting that he earn his way back to the 2 hole? You can't be serious.

 

I am the last guy on the planet to promote mollycoddling athletes but for better or worse the Sox have put themselves in a position where pulling this prove you can bat from the 2 hole nonsense is just that....nonsense.

 

I guess I can give it high marks for originality....a $21M #7 hitter.

[mvp 78]

Pedroia doesn't want to hit 1st. Hitting Ells 1st is wasting his production. He set a record for RBIs as a leadoff hitter. He would have had a lot more had he hit 3rd.

[User Name]

The Sox have another $130M invested in Crawford. Forget the put him at the bottom of the order nonsense.

 

You are going to take a guy you have that kind of money into that has already told you publicly and with a fair bit of emotion that he has an issue with batting down in the order and put him down in the order insisting that he earn his way back to the 2 hole? You can't be serious.

 

I am the last guy on the planet to promote mollycoddling athletes but for better or worse the Sox have put themselves in a position where pulling this prove you can bat from the 2 hole nonsense is just that....nonsense.

 

I guess I can give it high marks for originality....a $21M #7 hitter.

 

Aren't you one of the guys who's been preaching all off-season about the need for team-first mentality?

 

Team-first mentality has Crawford at the bottom third of the order. It doesn't matter how much money he makes. He doesn't get on-base enough to hit leadoff, he wouldn't be better than Pedey hitting second, and he doesn't have enough power to hit in the middle.

 

At the bottom, however, he lengthens the lineup and he could make the hitters behind him better by terrorizing opposing pitchers when he does get on base.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think it's the other way around. Specially considering that anyone he were to displace from the 1 through 6 spots had way better seasons that he did. He is one player. He has to adapt to the lineup' date=' not the other way around.[/quote']

 

Look, you signed this guy because you know exactly what kind of a player he is. He changes the game when he's at the top of the lineup and playing like he can play. The best thing for this team is for him to put up those TB numbers, and the best way to get him to do that is to get him comfortable. The best way to get him comfortable is to show confidence in him and let him know that he is the permanent #2 hitter for the Red Sox this year. He needs to feel like he's got security.

 

I mean look, he said it this spring training, he didn't feel comfortable in the bottom of the order, he felt like he had to be a power hitter and hit homeruns because he had the bases clogged with 3 slow guys ahead of him, and he couldn't be himself. Why would we ever even get close to tampering with that mindset again? It's completely understandable for him to feel like that based on where he has hit his entire career.

 

Put him up there in the 2 slot, he's tweaked his batting stance because he was late a lot last year and he's figured out why, so just let Carl be Carl. The upside to hitting him 2nd is so incredibly high because not only does it affect this offense, but his defense gets affected too because of his lack of confidence. Plain and simple, we need him to be the player that we signed, and he can be that player if he's in a comfortable situation.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Aren't you one of the guys who's been preaching all off-season about the need for team-first mentality?

 

Team-first mentality has Crawford at the bottom third of the order. It doesn't matter how much money he makes. He doesn't get on-base enough to hit leadoff, he wouldn't be better than Pedey hitting second, and he doesn't have enough power to hit in the middle.

 

At the bottom, however, he lengthens the lineup and he could make the hitters behind him better by terrorizing opposing pitchers when he does get on base.

 

The biggest hole in this argument is that you're using a complete aberration to project future performance.

 

Using Crawford's 2011 season and projecting him to replicate those numbers while completely disregarding his career numbers before that is crazy.

 

I would much, much, much rather have Crawford terrorize opposing pitchers with Pedey/Gonzo/Ortiz/Youk hitting than with Salty or Aviles or Ross.

[User Name]

Look' date=' you signed this guy because you know exactly what kind of a player he is. He changes the game when he's at the top of the lineup and playing like he can play. The best thing for this team is for him to put up those TB numbers, and the best way to get him to do that is to get him comfortable. The best way to get him comfortable is to show confidence in him and let him know that he is the permanent #2 hitter for the Red Sox this year. He needs to feel like he's got security. [/quote']

 

Apparently not. Because you brought him to a park that diminishes his power and to a lineup where his style doesn't really fit in.

 

Also, Crawford being comfortable is a secondary issue. He is one player in a lineup of nine hitters. You don't take those who were productive last year and take them out of their comfort zone to accommodate a guy who struggles. That goes against the team's best interest, which is putting the best lineup to win ballgames with out there.

 

I mean look, he said it this spring training, he didn't feel comfortable in the bottom of the order, he felt like he had to be a power hitter and hit homeruns because he had the bases clogged with 3 slow guys ahead of him, and he couldn't be himself. Why would we ever even get close to tampering with that mindset again? It's completely understandable for him to feel like that based on where he has hit his entire career.

 

He's a professional baseball player. Better hitters than him have hit in the bottom third of high-powered lineups and remained productive. This is a bit overblown.

 

Also, he supposedly was uncomfortable hitting in the bottom third of the order, yet OPS'd .915 there. It may be SSS, but it also says that he obviously wasn't that affected by it.

 

Put him up there in the 2 slot, he's tweaked his batting stance because he was late a lot last year and he's figured out why, so just let Carl be Carl. The upside to hitting him 2nd is so incredibly high because not only does it affect this offense, but his defense gets affected too because of his lack of confidence. Plain and simple, we need him to be the player that we signed, and he can be that player if he's in a comfortable situation.

 

Yeah that's a lot of speculation. When he proves that he's "the player that we signed" he can earn his way up the batting order. The team doesn't have to hand out anything to Crawford.

[User Name]

The biggest hole in this argument is that you're using a complete aberration to project future performance.

 

Using Crawford's 2011 season and projecting him to replicate those numbers while completely disregarding his career numbers before that is crazy.

 

I would much, much, much rather have Crawford terrorize opposing pitchers with Pedey/Gonzo/Ortiz/Youk hitting than with Salty or Aviles or Ross.

 

No i'm not. Even at his best, he's an .800 OPS hitter who can steal bases and has platoon issues. He is what he is. Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzales, Youkilis, and Ortiz are all better hitters, and should hit in that order. That's not even debatable.

[SoxFanForsyth]

By the way, if you want a true precedent, have a look at the only other time he had a bad season (2008), look at how he rebounded the next 2 years.

 

2008 vs 2011

2008: .273/.319/.400/.719

2011: .255/.289/.405/.694

 

Bounce Back Seasons

2009: .305/.364/.452

2010: .307/.356/.495

 

I'd say he's going to be just fine, judging by how he's bounced back prior to this, and judging by his career numbers.

[User Name]

I don't think his 2009 or 2010 slash lines are good enough to justify moving anyone else from the top five, but that's just me.

[jung]

The Sox were warned that CC was going to have a tough time going from a small market team to a large market team but they went ahead anyway. Now they have to find a way to make the best of this for the team.

 

You don't cut off your nose to spite your face and you don't take a guy that now accounts for over 10% of your rather bloated payroll and dump him down in the bottom of the lineup telling him he can earn his way back. I would put him 2 and leave him there.

 

Stars looking to preserve the kinds of entitlements that might polarize the team are not the same thing as a guy working his tail off and trying to make what for him is clearly already a large transition. That the Sox are left to lay in the bed they made for themselves is one thing. Dumping a bunch of manure into the bed is something else again.

[User Name]

The Sox were warned that CC was going to have a tough time going from a small market team to a large market team but they went ahead anyway. Now they have to find a way to make the best of this for the team.

 

You don't cut off your nose to spite your face and you don't take a guy that now accounts for over 10% of your rather bloated payroll and dump him down in the bottom of the lineup telling him he can earn his way back. I would put him 2 and leave him there.

 

Stars looking to preserve the kinds of entitlements that might polarize the team are not the same thing as a guy working his tail off and trying to make what for him is clearly already a large transition. That the Sox are left to lay in the bed they made for themselves is one thing. Dumping a bunch of manure into the bed is something else again.

 

This line of thinking is exactly what got the Red Sox into the sewer they currently navigate. Production, not salary, should dictate his lineup spot.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Apparently not. Because you brought him to a park that diminishes his power and to a lineup where his style doesn't really fit in.

 

Also, Crawford being comfortable is a secondary issue. He is one player in a lineup of nine hitters. You don't take those who were productive last year and take them out of their comfort zone to accommodate a guy who struggles. That goes against the team's best interest, which is putting the best lineup to win ballgames with out there.

 

 

 

He's a professional baseball player. Better hitters than him have hit in the bottom third of high-powered lineups and remained productive. This is a bit overblown.

 

Also, he supposedly was uncomfortable hitting in the bottom third of the order, yet OPS'd .915 there. It may be SSS, but it also says that he obviously wasn't that affected by it.

 

 

 

Yeah that's a lot of speculation. When he proves that he's "the player that we signed" he can earn his way up the batting order. The team doesn't have to hand out anything to Crawford.

 

Yup. Just group all baseball players in to one heaping stereotype. All baseball players should hit regardless of where they are placed.

 

So, do you have an issue with Youkilis saying he doesn't want to lead off? Or what about Pedroia saying he doesn't want to lead off? Because if you do, then it's fine for you to have an issue with Crawford needing to hit 2nd. But if not, and I don't think you do, then you can't say anything about any other player having a preference.

 

Second, how can you possibly say that any of the other players numbers would diminish by moving Crawford to the 2 hole? Look at Pedroia in the 4 hole. He has an OPS over 1.000. SSS, but since you used Crawford hitting 7th I will use this. Getting Crawford to the 2 hole and getting him back to his career numbers is extremely important. Pedroia has shown he isn't affected by moving around in the order, especially not if you drop him to 3rd.

 

I don't care if other players have hit in the bottom of the order and remained productive. He didn't. He's not every other ball player.

 

Plain and simple. If moving Crawford to the 2 hole boosts his OPS by 150+ points (.851 OPS in 2010) then the team is better.

 

By the way, regardless of everything that was just said, OPS is not the be all end all. If Crawford gets on base at a .350 clip and has an .800 OPS, but he gets Pedroia, et all a higher ratio of fastballs, scores 100 runs because he can score from 1st on a wall ball double, and makes the pitchers make mistakes to hitters after him, he's got a whole lot more value in the top of the order than an .850 OPS guy who pitchers don't give a s*** about once he reaches base.

[seabeachfred]

Since Cc hates lead-off, I might go with:

 

1. Pedroia

2. Crawford

3. Ellsbury

4. AGon

5. Youk

6. Ortiz

 

Peple here have to understand Crawford does NOT like batting leadoff. He has said, Joe Maddon has said and last y ear Francona said it. Comfort zone is very important to some hitters and in Carl's case this is especially true. He must not hit at leadoff; besides his OBP is not as good as some o thers who could bat leadoff. Pedroia could bat anywhere and though he is perfect for the No. 2 spot, he could hit first or third or in a pinch even fourth. He can hit for average, can hit 20 or more homers and can steal bases, and I suspect if he had to be depended on for run production he could very well with that. Anyway, that's my take on things.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Who cares where Crawford doesn't like to hit. We're paying him 20 million a year. He'll hit wherever the hell we tell him.

[User Name]

Yup. Just group all baseball players in to one heaping stereotype. All baseball players should hit regardless of where they are placed.

 

So, do you have an issue with Youkilis saying he doesn't want to lead off? Or what about Pedroia saying he doesn't want to lead off? Because if you do, then it's fine for you to have an issue with Crawford needing to hit 2nd. But if not, and I don't think you do, then you can't say anything about any other player having a preference.

 

I wouldn't have an issue if we didn't have a superior option hitting second. But we do. That superior option should be hitting there.

 

Second, how the hell can you possibly say that any of the other players numbers would diminish by moving Crawford to the 2 hole? Look at Pedroia in the 4 hole. He has an OPS over 1.000. SSS, but since you used Crawford hitting 7th I will use this. Getting Crawford to the 2 hole and getting him back to his career numbers is extremely important. Pedroia has shown he isn't affected by moving around in the order, especially not if you drop him to 3rd.

 

Their production doesn't "diminish", but you upset the order and take away AB's from more productive hitters, regardless of how little that amount may be.

 

I don't care if other players have hit in the bottom of the order and remained productive. He didn't. He's not every other ball player.

 

Plain and simple. If moving Crawford to the 2 hole boosts his OPS by 150+ points (.851 OPS in 2010) then the team is better.

 

This is a big "what if", and he OPS'd .742 and .915 in almost 300 AB's hitting 6th and 7th last year. I don't see the argument.

 

By the way, regardless of everything that was just said, OPS is not the be all end all. If Crawford gets on base at a .350 clip and has an .800 OPS, but he gets Pedroia, et all a higher ratio of fastballs, scores 100 runs because he can score from 1st on a wall ball double, and makes the pitchers make mistakes to hitters after him, he's got a whole lot more value in the top of the order than an .850 OPS guy who pitchers don't give a s*** about once he reaches base.

 

We already have a hitter who can do all of that and better in Ellsbury. Pedroia has better contact, power and good speed, and is worlds ahead in OBP. The big boppers should hit three, four and five.

 

Look, i respect your opinion, but i just don't see a reason to hit Crawford in a spot where any of the current players outperformed him last year and outperform him over their careers.

[jung]

OK fine... place CC in the lineup based on production. Do you want his numbers from Tampa Bay or the one year anomaly trying to make a transition that probably never should have happened in the first place. Like I said, the Sox made this bed. Now they have to find a way to make the best of it. Taking CC's 2011 numbers and basing his position in the lineup makes no sense....not today....not tomorrow ....not the next day. His career numbers are what the Sox want and his career numbers place him in the 2 hole at least if you want the best shot at seeing the production that he was brought here to give the Sox.

 

And....

 

thinking that the amount of money the Sox have invested in the CC does not effect how they handle him is just naive. If the guy was doggin' it that would be one thing. However there is no evidence that he is doggin' it. In fact all the evidence that we have is to the contrary.

 

I still think bringing here was ill advised. Hated it from the start and hate it now. Just not willing to cut off my nose to spite my face.

[seabeachfred]

This point is not quite accurate.

 

During the first twelve games of the season, the Red Sox went 2-10. Crawford was hitting .137. They did move him around a little bit, but he hit below 3rd exactly one time.

 

He hit leadoff most of those first 12 games and I saw him bat there in two of those games against the Yankees. 700 and Forsyth were right, though. Francona did not use him properly at all. Then again last season Francona really didn't do much of a job either and that is why he is no longer with the Red Sox.

[User Name]

I am taking into account his career production. That is the whole point. He's a tweener, and he was never a good fit for the Sox.

 

Also, he had his best numbers hitting at the bottom of the lineup last year, a point people conveniently forget.

 

It's not "cutting you nose to spite your face". It's common sense.

 

This team needs every run it can score next year, and to do that, they need to have the best lineup on the field as much as possible. That lineup does not have Crawford hitting second.

 

I like the guy, but i don't let my fandom interfere with the big picture.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Look, i respect your opinion, but i just don't see a reason to hit Crawford in a spot where any of the current players outperformed him last year and outperform him over their careers.

 

I understand this argument, but I also think that Pedroia can be just as effective in the 3 hole, potentially more effective. He could very easily be a 20 HR/35Double/20 SB/100 Run/100 RBI guy from the 3 hole. I am a big advocate on putting pressure on the SP, scoring runs early, manufacturing runs when needed, and utilizing speed at the top of the order. I think speed and it's affect on a pitcher has a big impact on the hitters after him.

 

Crawford is a game changing player. He can hit triple after triple after triple at Fenway. He can swipe bags, and he can manufacture runs. Is Pedroia a better 2 hitter? Probably. But when Crawford is playing well, it's not a big difference, and adding another run scorer to the top of the order would never hurt.

 

Also - if Ells has an OBP of .370, Crawford returns to form for a .350, and Pedroia has his usual .380, then there is only a 25% chance that none of them reach base in the first inning of any given game. That means, ultimately, that Gonzalez will be hitting in the first inning in 3 of every 4 games with a runner on base, likely in scoring position with the wheels that all 3 of those players have, in the first inning, and he hits around .340 with RISP, .305 with RISP and 2 outs, so you're going to score some first inning runs quite often. Getting that early lead could help with our pitching, as well, by taking the pressure off of them.

 

So what I'm saying is that Crawford hitting 2nd will help our pitching Joking, but I think it would have a very strong effect on this team if he hits 2nd, especially because he's a guy who takes his offensive struggles on the field with him.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I am taking into account his career production. That is the whole point. He's a tweener, and he was never a good fit for the Sox.

 

Also, he had his best numbers hitting at the bottom of the lineup last year, a point people conveniently forget.

 

It's not "cutting you nose to spite your face". It's common sense.

 

This team needs every run it can score next year, and to do that, they need to have the best lineup on the field as much as possible. That lineup does not have Crawford hitting second.

 

I like the guy, but i don't let my fandom interfere with the big picture.

 

The reason people "conveniently forget" his stats in the bottom of the order from last season is because he did it from there for 320 AB last year and he only swiped 13 bags because the bases were consistently clogged and he didn't want the next inning to lead off with a s*** hitter. He racked up 1,500 hits and 398 SB in 5,200 AB from the 2 hole and hit .303/.346/.460.

 

I'd say one stat is a bit more substantial than the other.

[User Name]

I do like the idea of Pedroia hitting 3rd, but what i'm advocating here is not for keeping Crawford in the bottom third for the sake of hitting him in the bottom, but rather to help the team lengthen the lineup, and maximize his utility.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I do like the idea of Pedroia hitting 3rd' date=' but what i'm advocating here is not for keeping Crawford in the bottom third for the sake of hitting him in the bottom, but rather to help the team lengthen the lineup, and maximize his utility.[/quote']

 

I am 110% for lengthening the line up. But my version of lengthening the lineup means putting a run scorer in front of the big boppers and having an extra bopper in the 6 hole rather than putting a run scorer in the 6 slot, having a bunch of .230-.260 hitters behind him, and having 3 guys in front of him who clog the bases and don't let him use his legs, which are worth 141 of the 142mm, would really inhibit Crawford as an offensive player.

[User Name]

The reason people "conveniently forget" his stats in the bottom of the order from last season is because he did it from there for 320 AB last year. He racked up 1,500 hits in 5,200 AB from the 2 hole and hit .303/.346/.460.

 

I'd say one stat is a bit more substantial than the other.

 

But the point of the less substantial one is debunking the myth that he "can't" hit in the bottom of the other.

 

Also, his slash from the two hole is substantially below the .851 from Pedroia, with a .381 OBP, which is the most important stat from the first two spots. I don't see the justification of moving Pedroia from there for Crawford, unless Crawford can outperform him.

[User Name]

I am 110% for lengthening the line up. But my version of lengthening the lineup means putting a run scorer in front of the big boppers and having an extra bopper in the 6 hole rather than putting a run scorer in the 6 slot' date=' having a bunch of .230-.260 hitters behind him, and having 3 guys in front of him who clog the bases and don't let him use his legs, which are worth 141 of the 142mm.[/quote']

 

Unfortunately, that's the way the cookie crumbles. In your scenario, i'd hit him behind Ross (7th) who can also run, and let him run wild because the two hitters behind him would be weaker.

[seabeachfred]

The biggest hole in this argument is that you're using a complete aberration to project future performance.

 

Using Crawford's 2011 season and projecting him to replicate those numbers while completely disregarding his career numbers before that is crazy.

 

I would much, much, much rather have Crawford terrorize opposing pitchers with Pedey/Gonzo/Ortiz/Youk hitting than with Salty or Aviles or Ross.

 

This argument could go into the wee hours of the morning and no one is going to budge from their opinions, but for the record Forsythe I totally agree with you. Batting Crawford down in the lineup is a total waste. He never hit there for TB and his record there was excellent. Where did he bat? He batted mostly second, sometimes third. It is well known in managing and coaching circles that players do have a favorite place to bat and places they do not want to be in under any circumstances. Crawford loves the #2 spot, hates leadoff and doesn't like batting low because it seems to evaporate his confidence. This is not something to take lightly. Bat him second; he likes it and has had success batting there. Pedroia can bat anywhere as he has proved in the past, success at leadoff and even cleanup. We have a big investment in Carl and we need his head cleared and need to have people to have confidence in him. Confidence is enormously important for a hitter. Without he you don't have much. Crawford needs to hit second.

[SoxFanForsyth]

But the point of the less substantial one is debunking the myth that he "can't" hit in the bottom of the other.

 

Also, his slash from the two hole is substantially below the .851 from Pedroia, with a .381 OBP, which is the most important stat from the first two spots. I don't see the justification of moving Pedroia from there for Crawford, unless Crawford can outperform him.

 

But man. You know as well as I do, that's not how this works. Valentine doesn't put the stats into excel and go to Data - Sort by OBP. If that was the case, then Adrian Gonzalez would be the 2 hole hitter.

 

It's about constructing a team that maximizes the production from all of the players. And putting Crawford in the 2 slot maximizes his production. Will Crawford OPS as high as Pedroia? No, but why does that matter? Pedroia's AB go down by 18 over the entire season. He will be a very solid 3 hole hitter, and what's even more important, Gonzalez is going to be a better #4 hitter than Youkilis is.

 

By moving Crawford up to 2, you effective slot Gonzalez down to 4 where he can easily outperform Youkilis in the 4 slot, and ultimately give the 1-3 hitters a better chance of being driven in.

[User Name]

Valentine also knows Crawford struggled last year. He will look to maximize production by putting the lineup that has the most chance to produce out there.

 

Also, i don't think the Gonzales-Youkilis argument holds water because a healthy Youkilis puts up similar overall numbers to Gonzales, even if Gonzales is a bit better and obviously younger.

 

One thing that is also a problem is the fact that Crawford has pronounced split problems. That's what really seals the deal for me.

[The Boomer]

Once again, this is probably a brain fart, but why not bat Pedrioa at cleanup regularly? He's hit there some (not a lot, I know), but there's no rule that says your best power bat needs to be there. Just one of your best hitters.

 

CF Ells

LF Crawford

1B A-Gonz

2B Pedroia

DH Ortiz

3B Youk

RF Ross/Sweeney

SS Aviles

C Salty

 

We are very LHH heavy at the top of the order, but Crawford is the only one who has a massive dropoff in his splits vs. LHP.

[jung]

Using stats from Carl's batting lower in the lineup is just a convenient use of the data. He spent most of the season at the bottom of the order.

 

The 2 hole is where Carl deserves to hit because that is where he produced his best numbers before coming to Boston and that is I guess why the Sox brought him here. I can not stress enough that this is a problem of the Sox own making. They made this mess. If Carl were not at least from appearances doing everything he can to right the ship then I would be less likely to put him back in the 2 hole.

 

He is not a 7 hitter in this lineup under any circumstances. 6 might be a possibility were it not for the fact that he can't make use of his speed from there and the biggest complaint people have had with the contract is that speed is a big part of his game and you have to doubt his speed will be there later in his career. The Sox made this mess. Sticking him in the 7 hole is simply not the best way out of it.

 

There is really no way out of it. There is only getting the player you thought you were "overpaying" from day one or not even getting that and having the everyday player equivalent of Lackey. He won't get the at bats nor the opportunity to use his speed from down in the lineup.

 

Believe me nobody is less happy than I at this mess....nobody. However I don't want to be sitting here two years from now saying "see....see I told ya' he was a bum." I want the Sox and Carl to find a way to make the best of what is to me a horrid situation that never should have happened.

 

I hate to say it but the Sox actually deserve Carl just getting dumped into the bottom or the lineup so that they can take the full weight for their stupidity.

[User Name]

It's not "convenient". It's fact. He hit well there, and it's recorded in the numbers.

 

Also, Crawford doesn't "deserve" anything. He's not a better hitter than any of the top five and none of them should be moved just to accommodate him.

 

That is, once again, the mindset that got the Red Sox into the shitfest they ended 2011 on.