2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

You were saying because on paper we're looking at 5th or 6th place fighting the Rays. Last year we were listed as favorites to go to the WS and we didn't even make the playoffs. The "on paper" argument is weak. The Sox can matchup against any team in the league. I don't care what the paper looks like.

Three out of 5 days they can compete against anyone. On the 4th and 5th days, I wouldn't be so sure.

[jacksonianmarch]

Three out of 5 days they can compete against anyone. On the 4th and 5th days' date=' I wouldn't be so sure.[/quote']

 

assuming their pitchers are healthy

[example1]

Are you kidding? First of all, it is absolutely an advantage to have three pitchers considered aces, rather than one ace and three or four less successful starters.

 

Furthermore, in your infinite wisdom, with all due respect, you missed the fact that with two wildcards teams there is not likely to be a race up until the final day of the season a la 2011. If 2011 plays out again then the Sox and Rays aren't starting their best pitchers leading up to the final game. They know a week before that it comes down to one game. Yes, they likely set their rotation up for their best pitcher in the WC game, and a team with multiple top tier starters is better set up in that scenario than a team that starts verlander in the WC game and has Fister in game 2. That's not specious, that's reasonable.

[example1]

assuming their pitchers are healthy

 

This is all assuming they are healthy Jacko.

[iortiz]

That's exactly the problem, last 3 years we haven't shown that (healthy rotation), hence we need another SP. As I said, we have to learn from the past, otherwise we will walk in a very thin line.

[Elktonnick]

With all due respect' date=' that is close to the most specious argument I have ever read on this board.[/quote']

 

Agreed

[User Name]

You know, this might be difficult to believe, but the worst case scenario does not necessarily have to happen.

[example1]

Agreed

 

How so?

[jacksonianmarch]

Another interesting thing to keep an eye on is if the sox are mentally tough enough to be division contenders. It's one thing to be supremely talented and get up for games against good teams, it's another to be mentally tough and professional enough to take every game seriously and beat the bad teams. The sox have had a pretty rough go of things lately vs the bad teams in baseball. Here's a run down of what they did last yr

 

vs BAL- 10-8

vs NYY- 12-6

vs TB- 6-12

vs TOR- 10-8

vs CWS- 2-4

vs CLE- 4-6

vs DET- 5-1

vs KC- 5-3

vs MIN- 5-2

vs LAA- 6-2

vs OAK- 6-2

vs SEA- 5-4

vs TEX- 4-6

vs PHI- 1-2

vs CHC- 2-1

vs HOU- 3-0

vs MIL- 2-1

vs PIT- 1-2

vs SD- 1-2

 

Overall, vs non-contenders they were 54-42. That's a .562 win %.

Overall, vs contenders they were 36-30 vs contenders for a .545 win %.

 

That just isnt good enough. A team with superior talent that can take 55% of its games from playoff contenders should make the playoffs. Period. One of the reasons why the Yankees have been successful is because they demolish the bad teams and play .500 vs the good ones.

 

The Yankees record vs non-contenders was 64-34, good for a .653 win %

Vs contenders, it was only 33-31, good for a .516 win %

 

Bobby Valentine may be able to help here. Continuing to keep the players motivated even vs the s*** teams could go a long way.

[a700hitter]

I think if they can get major league average value out of one of the other candidates, Bard has more value to this team as a closer or setup man. At best, I think he'll have a 3.75-4.25 ERA with 140-160 IP, and that may be replaceable by one from the field. We'll have to see what happens, but I think this group looks a lot better than having Bard in the rotation spot:

 

Rotation: Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/Jackson or Floyd/+ replacement

Bullpen: Bard/Bailey/Melancon/Aceves/Morales/ +Two of Jenks/Albers/Doubront/Bowden etc

 

I may be more optimistic than you, but that looks like a pretty strong bullpen, and a strong rotation. As it stands right now, if Melancon or Aceves gets hurt in the bullpen, they're in trouble.

That bullpen would be very very strong, however, there a couple of issues. First and foremost, Bard has lobbied to be a starter and the Sox seem committed to giving him a chance. I would prefer to leave Bard in the pen as the closer, but the truth is we have 2 gaping holes in the rotation. If they sign a pitcher or trade for Floyd, I still don't know if we can find another decent starter from among the bucket of chum signed this off season. I think Bard or Aceves will have to take the remaining spot. It's easier to stretch them out now than later if the so called depth pitchers all crash and burn after the season starts.

[User Name]

He may not just be able to help, that may be the number one reason they hired him. @Jacksonian

[Elktonnick]

Are you kidding? First of all, it is absolutely an advantage to have three pitchers considered aces, rather than one ace and three or four less successful starters.

 

Furthermore, in your infinite wisdom, with all due respect, you missed the fact that with two wildcards teams there is not likely to be a race up until the final day of the season a la 2011. If 2011 plays out again then the Sox and Rays aren't starting their best pitchers leading up to the final game. They know a week before that it comes down to one game. Yes, they likely set their rotation up for their best pitcher in the WC game, and a team with multiple top tier starters is better set up in that scenario than a team that starts verlander in the WC game and has Fister in game 2. That's not specious, that's reasonable.

 

Why is it specious Here is why:

 

None of the three have pitched like aces consistently. Except for a few months last year Beckett hasn't pitched like an ace in years and Lester certainly has had his issues who admitted his own inconsistency in Sept.. Buccholtz is recovering from an injury so he is a major question mark

 

The wild card race is as likly to be just as close if not closer because more teams will be competing for the 5th spot after Aug 1 so less likely that teams will part with key players on around the trade deadline. Your analysis is wshful thinking at best. More teams will be in it come late September.

[example1]

Another interesting thing to keep an eye on is if the sox are mentally tough enough to be division contenders. It's one thing to be supremely talented and get up for games against good teams, it's another to be mentally tough and professional enough to take every game seriously and beat the bad teams. The sox have had a pretty rough go of things lately vs the bad teams in baseball. Here's a run down of what they did last yr

 

vs BAL- 10-8

vs NYY- 12-6

vs TB- 6-12

vs TOR- 10-8

vs CWS- 2-4

vs CLE- 4-6

vs DET- 5-1

vs KC- 5-3

vs MIN- 5-2

vs LAA- 6-2

vs OAK- 6-2

vs SEA- 5-4

vs TEX- 4-6

vs PHI- 1-2

vs CHC- 2-1

vs HOU- 3-0

vs MIL- 2-1

vs PIT- 1-2

vs SD- 1-2

 

Overall, vs non-contenders they were 54-42. That's a .562 win %.

Overall, vs contenders they were 36-30 vs contenders for a .545 win %.

 

That just isnt good enough. A team with superior talent that can take 55% of its games from playoff contenders should make the playoffs. Period. One of the reasons why the Yankees have been successful is because they demolish the bad teams and play .500 vs the good ones.

 

The Yankees record vs non-contenders was 64-34, good for a .653 win %

Vs contenders, it was only 33-31, good for a .516 win %

 

Bobby Valentine may be able to help here. Continuing to keep the players motivated even vs the s*** teams could go a long way.

 

Another interesting thing to keep an eye on is whether the Yankees are actually good enough to beat good teams.

[jacksonianmarch]

Are you kidding? First of all, it is absolutely an advantage to have three pitchers considered aces, rather than one ace and three or four less successful starters.

 

Furthermore, in your infinite wisdom, with all due respect, you missed the fact that with two wildcards teams there is not likely to be a race up until the final day of the season a la 2011. If 2011 plays out again then the Sox and Rays aren't starting their best pitchers leading up to the final game. They know a week before that it comes down to one game. Yes, they likely set their rotation up for their best pitcher in the WC game, and a team with multiple top tier starters is better set up in that scenario than a team that starts verlander in the WC game and has Fister in game 2. That's not specious, that's reasonable.

 

Clay Buchholz is unequivocally not an ace. Aces are not only productive, but they give innings, have high K rates, dont get hurt and carry a rotation. Buchholz has one season in the bigs that he's thrown more than 96 innings in and his career IP max is 173.2IP. Plus, his K rate in his "ace season" was 6.2 per 9IP. He's not an ace, and right now, it is unknown if he's healthy enough to last a season. Hell, even in his best season, he missed a few weeks with a pulled hamstring.

 

Look at the numbers please. Pineda has been torn a new one on here for being in a big park, not being proven, not having thrown a lot of innings, etc. His numbers in his first full season dwarf Buchholz's numbers in his best season. And, Buchholz is coming off a fracture in his back. But Buchholz is the ace, and Pineda is an unproven commodity coming from a big park. Right....

[jacksonianmarch]

Another interesting thing to keep an eye on is whether the Yankees are actually good enough to beat good teams.

 

Huh? They have always done this. That has been the blueprint since 1996. .600 or better vs bad teams, .500 or better vs good teams. I am starting to think you arent grounded in reality here. You're projecting

[iortiz]

You have to minimize the risk early. Now. Going like this, you leave the door wide open. Buchy has not pitched in a year or something. Lester and Beckett are prone to injuries. Bard and Aceves are a huge question marks... some say, another option is wait till LTD. Why wait untill LTD? Minimize the risk now!, win more games now!... Be proactive, no reactionary, regardless who knows what is going to be available by then...

[User Name]

Clay Buchholz is unequivocally not an ace. Aces are not only productive, but they give innings, have high K rates, dont get hurt and carry a rotation. Buchholz has one season in the bigs that he's thrown more than 96 innings in and his career IP max is 173.2IP. Plus, his K rate in his "ace season" was 6.2 per 9IP. He's not an ace, and right now, it is unknown if he's healthy enough to last a season. Hell, even in his best season, he missed a few weeks with a pulled hamstring.

 

Look at the numbers please. Pineda has been torn a new one on here for being in a big park, not being proven, not having thrown a lot of innings, etc. His numbers in his first full season dwarf Buchholz's numbers in his best season. And, Buchholz is coming off a fracture in his back. But Buchholz is the ace, and Pineda is an unproven commodity coming from a big park. Right....

 

This is laughable. Pineda pitched at Safeco and got his ass kicked by good teams. Let's keep this in context plz.

[User Name]

You have to minimize the risk. Going like this' date=' you leave the door wide open. Buchy has not pitched in a year or something. Lester and Beckett are prone to injuries. Bard and Aceves are a huge question marks... some say, another optin is wait till LTD. Why wait untill LTD? Minimize the risk now!, win more games now!... Be proactive, no reactionary, regardless who knows what is going to be available by then...[/quote']

 

I don't mean any disrespect, but this is easy to say from the outside looking in, but not that easy when you're actually in charge of building the roster.

 

It's easy to say "SIGN X" without knowing the specifics of why X is not a good fit for the team.

[example1]

None of the three have pitched like aces consitentl. Except for a few months last year Beckett hasn't pitched like an ace in years and Lester certainly has had his issues.

 

Which other teams have multiple "aces" who have pitched like "aces" consistently? Please provide the list of teams with pitchers who have both a better ceiling and track record...

 

Yankees? CC is an ace. Who is next? We question everything about the Red Sox, but how do the rest of the teams get a pass?

 

The wild card race is as likly to be just as close if not closer because more teams will be competing for the 5th spot after Aug 1 so less likely that teams will part with key players on around the trade deadline. Your analysis is wshful thinking at best.

 

Talk about specious. We will see, but your analysis is copmlete conjecture. How does that play out in any of the recent seasons? Which team makes the strong push after the ASB to contend with Boston and TB? The Angels were 3 games back (and that was only due to the Sox absolute freefall) and otherwise the Jays were 9 games back and no other team finished above .500. Perhaps next year a bunch of teams will try a lot harder and not be sellers at the deadline due to the new WC rules, but I don't think that makes a huge difference.

[example1]

Huh? They have always done this. That has been the blueprint since 1996. .600 or better vs bad teams' date=' .500 or better vs good teams. I am starting to think you arent grounded in reality here. You're projecting[/quote']

 

I'm not projecting anything. If you are questioning whether the Sox have the mental toughness to beat bad teams I will use the same argument to ask whether the Yankees are actually good enough to beat good teams. It doesn't appear they are. Perhaps that is their plan, though it doesn't make much sense. I would blame the pitching.

[a700hitter]

We don't have 3 aces. Beckett can pitch like an ace, but doesn't do so from year to year. Buchholz has had one solid full season and broke his back. Lester has been the most consistent pitcher and the closest thing to a true ace. I like to think we have three very good solid guys at the top of the rotation, and that is great to have, but let's not overstate what they are. Despite having a solid top 3, we still need two other competent guys at the bottom who can consistently put up innings with some degree of success. If you don't, the top three will not be enough to hold thing s together. We can't roll out garbage like Silva and Cook and Maine in the 4 th and 5th slots without burning out the bullpen and eventually collapsing the entire pitching staff.

[a700hitter]

Huh? They have always done this. That has been the blueprint since 1996. .600 or better vs bad teams' date=' .500 or better vs good teams. I am starting to think you arent grounded in reality here. You're projecting[/quote']That has always been the blue print for successful seasons-- beat up on the weak sisters and just try to hold your own against the good teams. Play .600 or better at home and try to play at .500 or slightly above on the road. That's how it has always worked on the macro and micro level in the game. Willie Mays used to say that he just tried to hold his own against the top pitchers, but he made his money off everyone else.

[example1]

This is an unnecessary diversion. I mistakenly said "three pitchers considered aces" when in my first post I was very careful to say "three former All-Stars".

 

I absolutely agree that none of the three are true #1 pitchers in the mold of CC or Halladay. I would say that on any given night, all three are one step below those, capable of winning games against any true #1 and considered the favorite against most teams' #2 or #3 pitchers. My bad.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is laughable. Pineda pitched at Safeco and got his ass kicked by good teams. Let's keep this in context plz.

 

Laughable is your response that once again lacks any sort of grasp in reality.

 

Pineda away- 94IP 83H 27BB 91K- 1.17WHIP, 3.4K/BB, 8.7K/9IP

Pineda vs contenders- 69.1IP 57H 27BB 69K. 1.21WHIP, 9K/9IP, 2.6K/BB

 

The only thing that he could control that he did vs contenders was walk them more often, which is to be expected. Typically, contenders have a better lineup with more patient hitters.

[Elktonnick]

Which other teams have multiple "aces" who have pitched like "aces" consistently? Please provide the list of teams with pitchers who have both a better ceiling and track record...

 

Yankees? CC is an ace. Who is next? We question everything about the Red Sox, but how do the rest of the teams get a pass?

 

 

 

Talk about specious. We will see, but your analysis is copmlete conjecture. How does that play out in any of the recent seasons? Which team makes the strong push after the ASB to contend with Boston and TB? The Angels were 3 games back (and that was only due to the Sox absolute freefall) and otherwise the Jays were 9 games back and no other team finished above .500. Perhaps next year a bunch of teams will try a lot harder and not be sellers at the deadline due to the new WC rules, but I don't think that makes a huge difference.

 

Why is Selig putting forward the second wild card? I can assure you it is because their research leads them to believe more teams will be competetive for the post season come August and Septemeber not less.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm not projecting anything. If you are questioning whether the Sox have the mental toughness to beat bad teams I will use the same argument to ask whether the Yankees are actually good enough to beat good teams. It doesn't appear they are. Perhaps that is their plan' date=' though it doesn't make much sense. I would blame the pitching.[/quote']

 

How can you say they arent good enough to beat good teams? That's just stupid. Their offense was second best in the game, their staff (which was good to begin with) just got a major boost yet they dont have the talent to beat good teams? That's dumb

[User Name]

Laughable is your response that once again lacks any sort of grasp in reality.

 

Pineda away- 94IP 83H 27BB 91K- 1.17WHIP, 3.4K/BB, 8.7K/9IP

Pineda vs contenders- 69.1IP 57H 27BB 69K. 1.21WHIP, 9K/9IP, 2.6K/BB

 

The only thing that he could control that he did vs contenders was walk them more often, which is to be expected. Typically, contenders have a better lineup with more patient hitters.

 

This is not real analysis, you're just trying to validate your opinion about Pineda. The truth is, he pitched in the AL West, which is the weakest division in the AL, you're trying to equate one season into over there into actual projections for the AL East, and cherry picking the stats is intellectually dishonest.

 

Where's the ERA, and "contender" is a subjective term.

 

He didn't do well vs Boston, the Yankees, Detroit, Texas or the Angels.

 

Sorry if reality clashes with your agenda.

 

That's why it's laughable.

[jacksonianmarch]

I used LAA, DET, TB, NYY, BOS, PHI, and TEX. You know, the teams that were in contention or won a playoff spot. Where's the ERA you say? ERA isnt something a pitcher can control. He can control how many guys he K's and how many baserunners he allows for the most part. When was the last time someone with actual baseball acumen used ERA as anything more than just a novelty?

[example1]

It's a specious argument' date=' because you can't have three top pitchers and 2 TBDs and be successful. It doesn't matter how good the top 3 are if you don't have guys at the bottom eating a lot of quality innings.[/quote']

 

I guarantee you that's not why Jung was saying it was specious. You are saying they won't even get to the WC because of their rotation, which is a valid, but completely different argument.

 

I think he was saying it was specious because he thought I was saying the one-game playoff would advantage the Red Sox... as in, they would be advantaged to be in a one-game playoff. That wasn't my point. My point was that of all teams who might get to a one-game playoff, I think the Sox are better situated than most to win that game AND see success in the next round.

[a700hitter]

It will mean less unless they win that one extra game. Then it will mean essentially the same.

The Wild Card teams will be at a tremendous disadvantage going forward. They will be forced to use their aces to win the 1 game playoff and then the ace doesn't get to pitch until game 3 of the Division Series, so they will be at a tremendous disadvantage. Yes, it does help that the Sox have a very good top 3, probably better than most teams, but you would want the hottest of those 3 to get 2 starts in the 5 game series. That's not going to be a possibility for the Wild Card teams.

 

I am a baseball purist, and in my opinion, the result of the 162 game schedule should mean more than 1 additional home game in the playoffs. The argument that it is more important to set up your pitching for the playoffs than to win the division will no longer hold any water.