2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

I tend to agree. Maybe it is my imagination but they seemed to have more injuries than do most ML teams. It could be that I notice it more because I follow them so closely. My hope is the new pitching coach and medical staff may change things. They certainly mishandled Dice-K.

They mishandled Buchholz to the point where they helped wreck the 2011 season.

[jung]

They mishandled Buchholz to the point where they helped wreck the 2011 season

 

This may be unduly harsh if Buch's back issues turn out to be tied to either his increased bulk put on to improve is ability to get through the season or his motion. He may just not be the guy we all hoped he would be.

[Palodios]

I think it is Bard's spot to lose. If he doesn't s*** himself or get injured in Spring training' date=' he will be in the rotation, and i am good with that. I have been curious to see what he can do as a starter since last August.[/quote']

 

I think if they can get major league average value out of one of the other candidates, Bard has more value to this team as a closer or setup man. At best, I think he'll have a 3.75-4.25 ERA with 140-160 IP, and that may be replaceable by one from the field. We'll have to see what happens, but I think this group looks a lot better than having Bard in the rotation spot:

 

Rotation: Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/Jackson or Floyd/+ replacement

Bullpen: Bard/Bailey/Melancon/Aceves/Morales/ +Two of Jenks/Albers/Doubront/Bowden etc

 

I may be more optimistic than you, but that looks like a pretty strong bullpen, and a strong rotation. As it stands right now, if Melancon or Aceves gets hurt in the bullpen, they're in trouble.

[FredLynn]

If they are already over it. There's too much contradicting evidence about the subject. Per the calculations you and the article you posted made, they are under after the Scutaro trade.

 

Even if they are under that cap, they should get a starter that would allow them to stay under it IMO, even if they have to do it during midseason to minimize the cap hit.

 

I don't think anyone knows where they stand vis a vis the cap. Bellhorn is convinced they are over; I am not so sure. You seem to think they are under it. I also think that if they are close they should shed more salary.

But IF they are already over, its time to get a good SP and then we ought to make a run for it. I like the scenario Paladios presented-IF we are already over the cap.

[RedSoxFan84]

I'd be fine with that rotation too, except for a few things. The front office have shown that they clearly don't plan on spending for a pitcher on more than a one-year deal. That rules out Jackson, Floyd, etc. Also, even if we DID sign one of those guys, who is the "replacement" that you mention? If you're referring to one of the scrub depth guys that we have signed this off-season, then honestly I think you're reaching a bit. Bard is much more lilkely to be a successful starter than any of those guys.

 

So I guess IF we were to sign a guy on a multi-year deal, and IF we were to miraculously get regular starter-quality pitching from one of the depth guys, then sure, Bard would be great in the pen.

 

Basically, I think most people would agree that if we could afford to keep Bard in the pen then that would be wonderful. However, for the reasons that I mentioned above, the reality is that we most likely wont have anyone better than Bard to fill the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation. It sucks, but it doesn't seem likely that anything much is going to happen to change it.

[iortiz]

And what were the 2011 Sox on paper at 4/1?

 

So?

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

So?

 

You were saying because on paper we're looking at 5th or 6th place fighting the Rays. Last year we were listed as favorites to go to the WS and we didn't even make the playoffs. The "on paper" argument is weak. The Sox can matchup against any team in the league. I don't care what the paper looks like.

[example1]

I do not want to start a fight' date=' but right now, do you really think that we are above NY, TEX, LAA and DET on paper?... IMO, right now and going like this, at very most, I see this team fighting with TB for the 5,6 spot in the AL. :dunno:[/quote']

 

Last year I didnt think St Louis was best on paper, San Francisco the season before. I wouldn't be shocked if they beat any of those teams head to head in a seven game series. On paper I think they are ok.

[iortiz]

You were saying because on paper we're looking at 5th or 6th place fighting the Rays. Last year we were listed as favorites to go to the WS and we didn't even make the playoffs. The "on paper" argument is weak. The Sox can matchup against any team in the league. I don't care what the paper looks like.

 

Yup, one thing is on paper and another thing is what is going to happen in reality, nobody is disputing the opposite.

 

I do not find out my argument weak.

[Bellhorn04]

This may be unduly harsh if Buch's back issues turn out to be tied to either his increased bulk put on to improve is ability to get through the season or his motion. He may just not be the guy we all hoped he would be.

 

But they could have MRI'd him much sooner than they did. The former medical staff's reluctance at doing MRI's was unfathomable.

[iortiz]

Last year I didnt think St Louis was best on paper' date=' San Francisco the season before. I wouldn't be shocked if they beat any of those teams head to head in a seven game series. On paper I think they are ok.[/quote']

 

Do not take me wrong, I'm just trying to figure out how our team could end this season (on paper). Just for fun, no big deal. As I said, make a call today (win WS) is a long shot for anybody, even for experts. Hell, Philly pays 11/2 and they are seeded as #1 in several casinos in order to win the WS, but still 11/2 is a huge reward since it is a long shot, and still, a lot casinos give them more possibilities than other teams, that's all.

[example1]

Do not take me wrong' date=' I'm just trying to figure out how our team could end this season (on paper). Just for fun, no big deal. As I said, make a call today (win WS) is a long shot for anybody, even for experts. Hell, Philly pays 11/2 and they are seeded as #1 in several casinos in order to win the WS, but still 11/2 is a huge reward since it is a long shot. But still, a lot casinos give them more possibilities, that's all.[/quote']

 

I realize this is just for fun. Don't worry man.

 

I think they are pretty damn good. I think Beckett will remain a legitimate ace. It looked to me like he finally figured it out last season. Lester should still be on the yearly list of Cy Young candidates. They also have a huge offense loaded with veterans in their prime. Yes we could list potentially s***** things, but most teams are that way.

[jung]

But they could have MRI'd him much sooner than they did. The former medical staff's reluctance at doing MRI's was unfathomable.

 

That is true. The point is I am still kinda' worried that in this particular case, in the long run he may have issues even larger than things like the Sox previous medical staff view regarding MRI.

 

If he cannot pitch with the additional bulk yet cannot last the season without it or if his back issues are motion related, then he may just not ever end up being what his promising pro career start suggested he might be. We can fix the knucklehead med staff. These other issues could easily turn out to be chronic issues that become defining with regard to his potential and eventually his career.

[iortiz]

I realize this is just for fun. Don't worry man.

 

I think they are pretty damn good. I think Beckett will remain a legitimate ace. It looked to me like he finally figured it out last season. Lester should still be on the yearly list of Cy Young candidates. They also have a huge offense loaded with veterans in their prime. Yes we could list potentially s***** things, but most teams are that way.

 

I've been saying that we are a 5-6 team in the AL right now. On the other hand if we bring the SP, I see our team ending (3-4). I've been saying that the AL next year will be very competitive and even 1-3 wins could make the difference between go/no-go to the POs, and this SP could give us that kind of improvement (1-3). Going like this, we almost do not have margin of error. If one of our 1-3 hurts/underperform we will be in serious trouble. But again, that is only how I see the things, hopefully I'm wrong.

[FredLynn]

That is true. The point is I am still kinda' worried that in this particular case, in the long run he may have issues even larger than things like the Sox previous medical staff view regarding MRI.

 

If he cannot pitch with the additional bulk yet cannot last the season without it or if his back issues are motion related, then he may just not ever end up being what his promising pro career start suggested he might be. We can fix the knucklehead med staff. These other issues could easily turn out to be chronic issues that become defining with regard to his potential and eventually his career.

 

I read that the medical staff is very similar to last year's staff, being from the same hospital (doctors at the same hospital tend to practice in a similar manner because peer review will single out doctors that differ from the "norm" at that hospital). The only difference is that Dr Gill is no longer in charge. This is concerning.

[example1]

I've been saying that we are a 5-6 team in the AL right now. On the other hand if we bring the SP' date=' I see our team ending (3-4). I've been saying that the AL next year will be very competitive and even 1-3 wins could make the difference between go/no-go to the POs, and this SP could give us that kind of improvement (1-3). Going like this, we almost do not have margin of error. If one of our 1-3 hurts/underperform we will be in serious trouble. But again, that is only how I see the things, hopefully I'm wrong.[/quote']

 

Honestly, it doesn't really matter where they are in the AL. To me that's not a very effective or meaningful way of talking about it. The division is more important because teams will have easier or harder roads depending on their division. I think the Sox should be a mid 90s win team. The competition in the AL is very tough, but they are one of the handful of good teams, not on the outside looking in, in my opinion.

[jung]

Great more guys that think MRI's should be reserved for.....for what for crying out loud. That has been about the dumbest think I have seen in awhile. It is almost like they are taking the "logic" drilled into them by the insurance companies that really control how medicine is administered in this country for 90% of us and applying that to a professional sports team.

[Elktonnick]

I've been saying that we are a 5-6 team in the AL right now. On the other hand if we bring the SP' date=' I see our team ending (3-4). I've been saying that the AL next year will be very competitive and even 1-3 wins could make the difference between go/no-go to the POs, and this SP could give us that kind of improvement (1-3). Going like this, we almost do not have margin of error. If one of our 1-3 hurts/underperform we will be in serious trouble. But again, that is only how I see the things, hopefully I'm wrong.[/quote']

 

I know some here impugn the validity or competencv of the Boston sports media but the Globe and Herald staff as well as others essentially agree with you. The two big question marks are injuries and whether key position players will play up to the level that they are capable. Virtually every knowledgeable observer say the Sox have no margin for error with the team the way it is currently. I agree with that view.

[iortiz]

Honestly' date=' it doesn't really matter where they are in the AL. To me that's not a very effective or meaningful way of talking about it. [b']The division is more important because teams will have easier or harder roads depending on their division.[/b] I think the Sox should be a mid 90s win team. The competition in the AL is very tough, but they are one of the handful of good teams, not on the outside looking in, in my opinion.

 

I do not share this. With this perspective, you reduce your possibilities. You need to monitor other divisions as well, look..

 

1. Current Division scenario. You need to beat NY and TB and who knows? TOR could be a surprise. Today, I see NY above us and TB maybe is at the same level.

 

2. Current WC scenario. The other oportunity would be the wild card. You will likely compete with LAA, TB and probably another unknown team. (on paper, of course)

 

I would base my strategy in both, 1. try to win the division (unlikely today) and as plan B win the WC (likely). Once in the PO, you never know.

[iortiz]

I know some here impugn the validity or competencv of the Boston sports media but the Globe and Herald staff as well as others essentially agree with you. The two big question marks are injuries and whether key position players will play up to the level that they are capable. Virtually every knowledgeable observer say the Sox have no margin for error with the team the way it is currently. I agree with that view.

 

Yup. Going like this, we will likely be an unbalanced team again. A solid offense and huge question marks in pitching. IMO.

[jung]

WC this year will mean a one game play-in. If your "Ace" is available to pitch in that one game play in, you really will have no choice but to use him, leaving the team that wins the play in at a distinct disadvantage going into the division series. it will be game 3 of the division series before you will be able to use your ace again.

 

This is the whole reason for the one game play in...to make the division championship more meaningful and make it more difficult for teams to come out of the wild card.

[example1]

I do not share this. With this perspective, you reduce your possibilities. You need to monitor other divisions as well, look..

 

1. Current Division scenario. You need to beat NY and TB and who knows? TOR could be a surprise. Today, I see NY above us and TB maybe is at the same level.

 

2. Current WC scenario. The other oportunity would be the wild card. You will likely compete with LAA, TB and probably another unknown team. (on paper, of course)

 

I would base my strategy in both, 1. try to win the division (unlikely today) and as plan B win the WC (likely). Once in the PO, you never know.

 

Perhaps I wasn't as clear as I should have been.

 

It is very hard to ask "where are they in the AL" if you are talking about end of season standings. Yes, they should put a better team on the field than everyone else, but they don't play in the AL Central, or have the luxary of playing the A's and Mariners every few weeks. They have to be the best team they can be in the AL East. The Wild Card matters a ton, of course, but the best they can do is wins the games in front of them.

 

There is a very real possibility that a very good team will not make the playoffs this year.

[Elktonnick]

Perhaps I wasn't as clear as I should have been.

 

It is very hard to ask "where are they in the AL" if you are talking about end of season standings. Yes, they should put a better team on the field than everyone else, but they don't play in the AL Central, or have the luxary of playing the A's and Mariners every few weeks. They have to be the best team they can be in the AL East. The Wild Card matters a ton, of course, but the best they can do is wins the games in front of them.

 

There is a very real possibility that a very good team will not make the playoffs this year.

 

The wild card will actually mean less this year because in all ikelyhood it will have the one playin game. The Sox right now can not be considered the odds on favorite to win the ALE far from it.

[example1]

The wild card will actually mean less this year because in all ikelyhood it will have the one playin game. The Sox right now can not be considered the odds on favorite to win the ALE far from it.

 

It will mean less unless they win that one extra game. Then it will mean essentially the same.

[jung]

It will mean less unless they win that one extra game. Then it will mean essentially the same.

 

Not likely.

 

The premise is that the two WC teams will have to face off their Aces to pitch that play in game, hence making them unavailable for the 1st and 2nd games of the division series. It will be game 3 before the winner of the play in can use their Ace again. You can bank on MLB scheduling events so that this is exactly what happens because the entire rational for the i game play in between WC teams is to make the regular season leader a more meaningful accomplishment. That team will be able to start it's Ace in the first game of the division playoff, a game played on its own turf. That team will also very likely be able to pitch their ace twice in the division series if need be.

 

Whichever team comes out of the WC play in will be at a distinct disadvantage in the division series.

[FredLynn]

Not likely.

 

The premise is that the two WC teams will have to face off their Aces to pitch that play in game, hence making them unavailable for the 1st and 2nd games of the division series. It will be game 3 before the winner of the play in can use their Ace again. You can bank on MLB scheduling events so that this is exactly what happens because the entire rational for the i game play in between WC teams is to make the regular season leader a more meaningful accomplishment. That team will be able to start it's Ace in the first game of the division playoff, a game played on its own turf. That team will also very likely be able to pitch their ace twice in the division series if need be.

 

Whichever team comes out of the WC play in will be at a distinct disadvantage in the division series.

 

+1

[Elktonnick]

Not likely.

 

The premise is that the two WC teams will have to face off their Aces to pitch that play in game, hence making them unavailable for the 1st and 2nd games of the division series. It will be game 3 before the winner of the play in can use their Ace again. You can bank on MLB scheduling events so that this is exactly what happens because the entire rational for the i game play in between WC teams is to make the regular season leader a more meaningful accomplishment. That team will be able to start it's Ace in the first game of the division playoff, a game played on its own turf. That team will also very likely be able to pitch their ace twice in the division series if need be.

 

Whichever team comes out of the WC play in will be at a distinct disadvantage in the division series.

 

Exactly the point I would make. Moreover, A manager has a more difficult time setting up his rotation prior to the playin game. Every knowledgeable observer made the same point. I find it interesting those who disparage their analysis.

[example1]

Not likely.

 

The premise is that the two WC teams will have to face off their Aces to pitch that play in game, hence making them unavailable for the 1st and 2nd games of the division series. It will be game 3 before the winner of the play in can use their Ace again. You can bank on MLB scheduling events so that this is exactly what happens because the entire rational for the i game play in between WC teams is to make the regular season leader a more meaningful accomplishment. That team will be able to start it's Ace in the first game of the division playoff, a game played on its own turf. That team will also very likely be able to pitch their ace twice in the division series if need be.

 

Whichever team comes out of the WC play in will be at a distinct disadvantage in the division series.

 

This should advantage a team like the Red Sox, who will have three former all-star SPs in their front five. No need to start Beckett over Lester or Buchholz if all are pitching to form. The Rangers, Yankees and Tigers are in a different spot, IMO

[jung]

This should advantage a team like the Red Sox, who will have three former all-star SPs in their front five. No need to start Beckett over Lester or Buchholz if all are pitching to form. The Rangers, Yankees and Tigers are in a different spot, IMO

 

With all due respect, that is close to the most specious argument I have ever read on this board.

[jacksonianmarch]

This should advantage a team like the Red Sox' date=' who will have three former all-star SPs in their front five. No need to start Beckett over Lester or Buchholz if all are pitching to form. The Rangers, Yankees and Tigers are in a different spot, IMO[/quote']

 

Of those three all stars, only one of them has shown the durability to avoid missing starts over the last 3 yrs. Also, with the way MLB is scheduling things, unless you think Beckett and Lester on 3 days rest is a good thing, you're gonna need a 4th starter