2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[Soxfan1]

If Hanley is coming here than Annibal better be with him.

[a700hitter]

Another day and no starting pitcher.

[Bellhorn04]

Another day and no starting pitcher.

 

Have faith man, the pitcher is next. And Benny is working on JH right now to expand the budget just a tiny bit.

[SoxSport]

I don't know if Miami is looking to move Hanley. It wouldn't fit in their marketing picture in Miami.

Maybe they might move him for Miggy, but not to Boston. Besides, I doubt the Red Sox are looking for a regular SS. Cafardo says they will go with Punto/Aviles this year, and Nick seems to have a mole in the organization. They dumped salary with Scutaro, and are probably looking to get another pitcher with the savings. They will not go over the cap this year because of the new, tougher cap rules. Why they weren't thinking like this when they offered Ortiz arbitration is a question a lot of people are asking. It doesn't look like they had a strategy for this year at the outset, and have been changing on the fly.

[iortiz]

Have faith man' date=' the pitcher is next. And Benny is working on JH right now to expand the budget just a tiny bit.[/quote']

 

Maybe JH after seeing Tigers' move, he is finally disposed to make the move.

[SoxSport]

Maybe JH after seing Tigers' move' date=' he is disposed to make the move.[/quote']

 

They'll try to add another pitcher if they can stay under the cap. The new cap rules make it imperative for them to stay under the cap this year.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

They'll try to add another pitcher if they can stay under the cap. The new cap rules make it imperative for them to stay under the cap this year.

 

But we play for second remember? Let the Yankees take the division and we'll take the WC. No need to add another piece to the rotation...

[Bellhorn04]

They'll try to add another pitcher if they can stay under the cap. The new cap rules make it imperative for them to stay under the cap this year.

 

I don't think it's imperative that they stay under for 2012. The new rules, where there's a new incentive added for being under the threshold, don't take effect until 2013.

[User Name]

It doesn't look like they had a strategy for this year at the outset' date=' and have been changing on the fly.[/quote']

 

Conjecture at best.

[jung]

Ya, I don't think they were without a strategy when they offered Arb to Ortiz. I think they just made a mistake. Took a shot and it did not work out.

 

I have to look more carefully at the revenue sharing issues and the timing on those changes but I think one of the things that might be motivating them to stay under the cap this year is that under the new rules in order to get 100% of their revenue share back they have to be at 0%. From where they are today, the only way to get back to 0% would be to stay under for two years running. I think they have next year knocked if they can just stay under this year. If they don't back get to 0% I think by 2014 (meaning they have to get under this year and stay under next year) then they lose a big chunk of revenue sharing...a far larger penalty than even a reasonable expectation for what the four year tax rate of 50% would yield.

 

If they go over this year, then even if they are under next year and stay under for 2014 it will be 2015 before they can get back to 0% and I think there is no question then that they would get clipped by the new revenue sharing penalties that have been added to the LT Tax itself.

 

I do think that baseball has come up with a formula that finally will even give the Yankees pause with regard to the LT cap.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Not sure if anyone saw it, but Alex Speier wrote an intersting artile on Scutaro's trade. It actually freed up $7.67mm in LT purposes.

 

Scutaro will earn $6 million in 2012. However, in calculating the Red Sox payroll against the competitive balance tax (CBT) threshold of $178 million, he actually represented a $7.67 million salary for the coming season. That relates to the structure of Scutaro's deal.

 

Scutaro, who received a signing bonus of $1 million when he joined the Sox in Dec. 2009, made salaries of $5 million in both 2010 and 2011. He also had a $3 million player option (should the team decline its $6 million option and pay a $1.5 million buyout) that was treated as guaranteed money when calculating the Sox' CBT payroll. Thus, Scutaro's deal was treated by Major League Baseball as a three-year, $14 million deal, with an average annual salary of $4.67 million.

 

However, when the Sox exercised their $6 million option for 2012, his deal became a three-year, $17 million contract. That, in turn, meant that the Sox would be on the hook for a $7.67 million luxury tax hit on Scutaro's deal in 2012 -- the difference between the total value of the contract ($17 million) and what the Sox had been charged for CBT purposes on his deal in its first two years ($9.33 million).

 

So, using this logic, I went ahead and recalcualted Lackey's new AAV calculation, as soon as we exercise his option, as follows:

 

Contract: 5 Years, 82.5mm. AAV: 16.5mm

 

AAV 2010: 16.5mm

AAV 2011: 16.5mm

 

Here's where it gets trickey. If the LT is calculated at the end of the year, then Lackey will qualify for his conditional option in 2012, and the Sox can exercise it. So, assuming that, here's the remainder.

 

2010-2011 AAV: $33mm (from above)

Contract with option exercised: 6 years, $83mm

Remaining Contract Left: 4 Years, 50mm

 

AAV from 2012-2015: $12.5mm (Savings of $4mm in LT Purposes)

 

If the LT is calculated at the beginning of the year (which I believe it is, because that's how the Sox extended Beckett and Gonzo), then here's the calculation:

 

2010-2012 AAV: $49.5mm (16.5mm * 3 years)

Contract with option exercised: 6 years, $83mm

Remaining Contract Left: 3 Years, 33.5mm

AAV of New Contract: $11.167 (Savings of 5.33mm per year in LT Purposes)

 

So my point is this - With the AAV of Ortiz (12.6mm), Jenks (6mm), DiceK (8.67mm), Shoppach (1.375), Ross (3mm), and Lackey's reduction (5.3mm) coming off the books after the 2012 season, that's about $37mm coming off the books. So why are we trying to stay under the LT threshold this year when we have so much coming off next year??

 

Either way, a 1 year deal for Oswalt is not going to hurt the club. Chances are we're already over in 2012 anyway.

[Divinity]

 

I do think that baseball has come up with a formula that finally will even give the Yankees pause with regard to the LT cap.

 

Its true, this new formula will certainly cause Yankees to spend less in the future, which is why Cashman is stocking up on young power pitching.

[User Name]

If the LT is calculated at the beginning of the year (which I believe it is, because that's how the Sox extended Beckett and Gonzo), then here's the calculation:

 

That's incorrect, and here's why:

 

Extensions that are given after opening day do not affect that year's luxury tax, because they are treated as "beginning" the next season. But guaranteed contracts do not work that way, and per the CBA, the competitive balance tax is not only calculated at the end of the year, but players signed to contracts after opening day have their salaries calculated as pro-rated portions of their salary depending on how much of the "championship year" they play, which explains the Yankees signing of Roger Clemens in 2007.

[User Name]

 

So my point is this - With the AAV of Ortiz (12.6mm), Jenks (6mm), DiceK (8.67mm), Shoppach (1.375), Ross (3mm), and Lackey's reduction (5.3mm) coming off the books after the 2012 season, that's about $37mm coming off the books. So why are we trying to stay under the LT threshold this year when we have so much coming off next year??

 

Either way, a 1 year deal for Oswalt is not going to hurt the club. Chances are we're already over in 2012 anyway.

 

And to answer this, the new CBA's rules regarding luxury tax are much more astringent than the current ones, but if the Red Sox manage to stay under the LT in 2012 and 2013 then they get their LT slate "wiped clean" meaning they can save a ton of money which then can be reallocated to other things.

[User Name]

The Red Sox have checked in with Edwin Jackson and maintain interest in Roy Oswalt, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). They're also looking at some infielders.

Do it do it do it do it do it.

[example1]

The report on MLBTR also noted that Oswalt really wants to pitch in Texas or STL. Is it important that he actually wants to pitch in Boston? I don't know enough about his character to know if he would just be miserable in Boston. If there is a high likelihood that he would be then it might be best to not sign him... Especially if they are also going to pay him well below his asking price. Perhaps Jackson would be the better one year play here?

[redsoxfan3]

Latest On Roy Oswalt

 

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [January 25 at 8:13am CST]

 

Now that Prince Fielder has agreed to terms with the Tigers, Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt are the top unsigned free agents. It wouldn’t surprise many if Oswalt, who now seeks a one-year deal, signs in Boston, but two general managers think he wants to join the Rangers and another says he’d like to sign in St. Louis, tweets Peter Gammons of MLB Network.

 

Oswalt would like to join Mike Maddux and Nolan Ryan with the Rangers, Gammons reports. However, both of last year’s World Series teams enter the 2012 season will rotations that appear to be full.

Though Oswalt had two back-related stints on the disabled list in 2011, he finished the season with six strong September starts and a season ERA of 3.69 with 6.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. The 34-year-old Bob Garber client made 23 starts and completed 139 innings this past season, posting a 3.69 ERA with 6.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 45.1% ground ball rate overall. His average fastball velocity dropped to 91.4 mph, however. Oswalt was a Type A free agent, but the Phillies declined to offer him arbitration and he won't cost a draft pick.

 

I am assuming that is good news. Since the Cards and Rangers have a set rotation already, then that means we are one of the more likely places to land him. Now BC just needs to get it done. I don't know what Jackson's price is going to be on a one year deal, but I am assuming it is still going to be higher than Oswalt's. I hope we can sign Oswalt to the one year deal at 8 million or maybe a little less with incentives. I really hope we get this done.

 

I took a quick glimpse at the FA SS still left. The only one that really interests me is Ryan Theriot. Does anyone else have anybody in mind? I know Theriot said that he is only interested in coming to the American League if he can start. How does everyone feel about signing Theriot if the his price is right? I feel that he could be a decent addition, maybe a better option than Punto. I wouldn't mind have Theriot as our everyday SS. That would allow us to give Aviles some playing time at 3B and in the OF if need be. I know that Aviles could platoon with Theriot and Youkilis. He could maybe give Youkilis a day off every few games so that we lower the risk of Youkilis getting hurt again. I could deal with the lineup like this:

 

C- Salty/Shoppach/Lavarnway

1B- Gonzalez

2B- Pedroia/Punto

SS- Theriot/Aviles/Punto

3B- Youkilis/Aviles/Punto

LF-Crawford/Ross/Aviles/McDonald

CF- Ellsbury/Kalish/McDonald

RF- Sweeney/Ross/Kalish/Aviles/McDonald

DH- Ortiz/Youkilis/Lavarnway

 

The addition of Theriot would add depth. We would have Punto as our utility infielder. We try to get Aviles as many at-bats as possible, especially with Kalish and Crawford out to start the year. He could also fill-in at 3B to give Youk a day off. When Crawford gets healthy, then he could split more time with Theriot at SS. I wouldn't mind having Aviles and Theriot as our SS combo. I would much rather have that than Aviles/Punto. The problem here is that we have to figure out how cheap we can get him for.

[a700hitter]

The Rangers might consider bolstering their pen by moving Ogando or Feliz back to the pen. If they do, they'll have an opening for a starter. I am concerned about them making such a move. I can't see that the are comfortable with an old broken down Nathan anchoring the pen.

[RedSoxFan84]

Do it do it do it do it do it.

 

 

 

I just read the same thing, but on a different site. Apparently we have been active on the phones to Jackson and Oswalt, as well as looking for an infielder, who would almost have to be a SS. That is awesome news on the Jackson/Oswalt side of things. I'd love to get one of these guys for the 2012 season and then look to spend big next offseason when I believe there is quite a crop of quality pitching available. As for adding a SS, I guess it couldn't hurt, but I'm not so thrilled. I'm in the minority on this board apparently, but I'd love to see them give Iglesias the job. There will be bumps in the road no doubt, but that would be the case with any prospect no matter when you bring them up to the big leagues. We have such a powerful offense that I think that we can afford to play Iglesias and let him learn on the job. It's not like we couldn't use his defensive ability either.

[redsoxfan3]

The Rangers might consider bolstering their pen by moving Ogando or Feliz back to the pen. If they do' date=' they'll have an opening for a starter. I am concerned about them making such a move. I can't see that the are comfortable with an old broken down Nathan anchoring the pen.[/quote']

 

I hope that is not the case, because if it is, you can say bye bye to Oswalt. I just hope they do not want to invest in Oswalt because they just invested in Darvish. It will be interesting to see. I think within the next week we will see a decision, maybe within the end of this week. I just hope we put an offer on the table and let him decide.

[a700hitter]

I hope that is not the case' date=' because if it is, you can say bye bye to Oswalt. I just hope they do not want to invest in Oswalt because they just invested in Darvish. It will be interesting to see. I think within the next week we will see a decision, maybe within the end of this week. I just hope we put an offer on the table and let him decide.[/quote']Darvish just replaced Wilson. They could still use another starter.

[redsoxfan3]

Darvish just replaced Wilson. They could still use another starter.

 

I am aware of that, it was still a big financial commitment. It does concern me, I was just saying that they might not be interested in signing Oswalt to a one year deal. If they are content with Feliz in the rotation, then they likely won't sign Oswalt. It could go either way.

[User Name]

The Rangers are seven-deep in starters with Martin Perez nearing his MLB debut. I doubt they invest in Oswalt.

[a700hitter]

I am aware of that' date=' it was still a big financial commitment. It does concern me, I was just saying that they might not be interested in signing Oswalt to a one year deal. If they are content with Feliz in the rotation, then they likely won't sign Oswalt. It could go either way.[/quote']I don't think the decision will be driven by whether they are happy with Feliz in the rotation, but rather if they can get through the season with Nathan anchoring the pen.

[BSN07]

Another day and no starting pitcher.

 

This was your mantra all last off season with Crawford. Be careful what you wish for.

[a700hitter]

This was your mantra all last off season with Crawford. Be careful what you wish for.

You don't want a starting pitcher?

[Elktonnick]

Today's column by Tony Mazz in the Globe pretty much sums it up. His view pretty much articulates mine. Unless we get that starter we are worse off than last year and the rest of the top teams in the AL are passing us by. ( BTW Only about 15 % of Red Sox fans voting in the Globe poll think this team is ranked 1 or 2 in the league. About 40% don't think they'll make the palyoffs.)

[iortiz]

Today's column by Tony Mazz in the Globe pretty much sums it up. His view pretty much articulates mine. Unless we get that starter we are worse off than last year and the rest of the top teams in the AL are passing us by. ( BTW Only about 15 % of Red Sox fans voting in the Globe poll think this team is ranked 1 or 2 in the league. About 40% don't think they'll make the palyoffs.)

 

I ranked our team in the #5-#6 in the AL. if we land a SP, I see our team in the #3-#4 in the AL.

 

The AL seems very competitive next season. I'm very excited.

[Elktonnick]

I ranked our team in the #5-#6 in the AL. if we land a SP, I see our team in the #3-#4 in the AL.

 

The AL seems very competitive next season. I'm very excited.

 

That's my view as well.

[MANNYHOF24]

I honestly believe the Red Sox when fully healthy and everyone playing fully capable have just as much talent as any team in the AL.