2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[iortiz]

We don't have to give up anyone. Dan Wheeler, to the best of my knowledge, has not signed with anyone. He is out there, and he did a very good job for us last year after he got back from the DL in May.

I would sign him-but only if we remain under the cap.

 

UN? says that we are 6 MUSD under... If we can't afford a SP with this money, at least we shall go for him.

[jung]

(do not go over it in the middle of next season).

 

Honestly I don't think there is much chance of this happening. Once you get into the season the money goes against the following year, just like it did in the AGons signing. If you take a player at the deadline for a one year deal only I think a portion of that money goes against the year you take him. I have to dig back into the new CBA to be sure of that. However my basic position would still be the same. I seriously doubt there is much chance if any that they could bump the cap via a mid-season move.

[iortiz]

No' date=' in late mid or late April the day when they calculate the LT is over and they can add payroll then and not get the penalty. It's the same reason they waited to sign Agon last year.[/b'] It's not 100% as they still went over this year, but I'm guessing they are trying to stay under and will wait even later this season to try to avoid the penalty.

 

Are you serious about no impact players will be available after April? You do realize I was talking more the just FA. of course all the impact FA will be gone. But there will be plenty of players available to be traded for up until the TDL like there is every year.

 

if this is true, UN? has a case. The money wouldn't be the problem, but still the availability would. Look at our 2011 SP searching. We only could afford another injury prone SP.

 

Either way, I find out the scenarios very interesting.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm pretty sure the LT is calculated at the end of the season and they pro-rate salaries of players who changed teams during the year.

 

The A-Gon case was different. If you sign an extension before the start of the season that extension becomes part of the AAV calculation for that year but if you sign it after the start of the season it doesn't.

[jung]

That is right, AGons was an extension of an existing contract. Oh well.

[User Name]

I thought that we were 1 or 2 M under the cap. Either way, I do not like that scenario (look for solid/heathy/proved pitcher in order to right the ship.). Look, The same situation happened last year. We needed this type of pitcher and we only could grab another injury prone pitcher on the edge of the TDL, regardless the money was not likely the issue at the time.

 

My point is, respect the strategy. If it is stay under the cap (beyond whether I like it or not) in order to win in the mid/long future, then we must show consistency in that regard (do not go over it in the middle of next season).

 

They had several plausible scenarios to acquire SP last season, and went for Bedard. It's not like there weren't enough possibilities.

[iortiz]

Off topic. A-Rod is in Mexico City and met with Carlos Slim Domit (Son of Carlos Slim Helu). He is promoting his gyms (Energy).

[iortiz]

They had several plausible scenarios to acquire SP last season' date=' and went for Bedard. It's not like there weren't enough possibilities.[/quote']

 

I'm confused. Some have said that out there weren't solid options, and now this?

 

If you are right, I wonder, why in the hell did they bring Bedard?! Anyway that is is closed case.

[User Name]

I'm confused. Some have said that out there weren't solid options, and now this?

 

If you are right, I wonder, why in the hell did they bring Bedard?! Anyway that is is closed case.

 

Because of his experience in the AL East, they thought Bedard was the best option, and they were wrong. But remember that Rich Harden was available, as was Wandy Rodriguez, Doug Fister, Edwin Jackson, and Ubaldo Jimenez.

[iortiz]

Because of his experience in the AL East' date=' they thought Bedard was the best option, and they were wrong. But remember that Rich Harden was available, as was Wandy Rodriguez, Doug Fister, Edwin Jackson, and Ubaldo Jimenez.[/quote']

 

If I remember well, some of those guys were too expensive or we didn't have the pieces, and our scenario was reduced to Bedard, wasn't it? Regardless he was prone to injuries.

[User Name]

If I remember well' date=' some of those guys were too expensive or we just didn't have the pieces, and our scenario was reduced to Bedard, wasn't it? Regardless he was prone to injuries.[/quote']

 

But this year, the Sox have prospects who are close to the Majors, and probably at least one MLB piece who they could use in a trade.

[iortiz]

But this year' date=' the Sox have prospects who are close to the Majors, and probably at least one MLB piece who they could use in a trade.[/quote']

 

Harden was a viable option, but he had injuries concerns as well. (like Bedard).

 

Anyway, hopefully their plans/strategy work it out this time.

[User Name]

Harden was a viable option, but he had injuries concerns as well. (like Bedard).

 

Anyway, hopefully their plans/strategy work it out this time.

 

It's a touchy issue, but Murphy's Law has punished the Red Sox so hard the last two years that something has to go right for them eventually.

[Elktonnick]

If I remember well' date=' some of those guys were too expensive or we didn't have the pieces, and our scenario was reduced to Bedard, wasn't it? Regardless he was prone to injuries.[/quote']

 

Not to beat a dead horse but while Bedard is injury prone his real problem is he has no "heart". " Jim Palmer who knows as much about pitching as anyone often criticized Bedard precisely because he is afraid on the mound. If you watched Bedard pitch one could see what Palmer was talking about. Palmer is the analyst on Orioles broadcasts so he has seen Bedard pitch often. He criticized the Sox signing Bedard at the time precislely on this point. Bedard will do okay in Pittsburgh where he is unlikely to face the kind of pressure he would in the ALE,

[jung]

Well a quick look at the schedule shows us that the Sox have more home games before the All Star break than after and more games with the meat of the league after the All Star game than before.

 

If they are looking like a 90 win team at the All Star break that would not be to encouraging. Wins are going to be harder to come by after than before the All Star break.

[User Name]

But that supports the idea that they may reinforce the club around the All-Star break if they remain highly competitive. The easier the schedule in the first half, the higher the chance they win a lot of games and reinforce the club for the second half.

[jung]

That is what i just said. If they are at about 45 at the half way mark I would not be encouraged by that. Why is the assumption automatically that they will be better than that? I am not assuming that they will be worse.

[User Name]

I'm not quite picking up your point in either post then.

[jung]

The point is that they have more home games and more games against weaker teams in the first half and more away games and more games against stronger teams in the second half. So if they get to the half way mark and have only managed 45 wins, I would not be encouraged by that. Why would I be since they would be going into the more difficult half of the season having only won 45 games.

 

At this point I am not assuming anything about where they will be...I am indicating how I would feel about things if in fact they have only won 45 games or less by the half way mark.

[seabeachfred]

The point is that they have more home games and more games against weaker teams in the first half and more away games and more games against stronger teams in the second half. So if they get to the half way mark and have only managed 45 wins, I would not be encouraged by that. Why would I be since they would be going into the more difficult half of the season having only won 45 games.

 

At this point I am not assuming anything about where they will be...I am indicating how I would feel about things if in fact they have only won 45 games or less by the half way mark.

 

Let's be frank jung. We really need Beckett, Lester and Buchholz to go out there and have banner seasons and win big for us if as you say we have what some think is an "easier" schedule the first half. None of that august trio has every gone through a campaign in one piece and if Murphy's Law would hold up just this once we might it paydirt. There is no excuse save injury that they shouldn't live up to their talent for a change and give us banner years from all three. That might make the 4th and 5th spots less critical if one or two of them can at least be more than the human pinata that Wakefield and Weiland were the last two months of the season.

[jung]

Pitching can make up for a good many things going wrong across the rest of the assets. As shaky as our pitching might look, I think those three guys at the top look to me like the most solid asset they have. Now somebody is going to hammer me about Beckett and his even/odd season tendencies, about Buch and his injury and about Lester and his 2011 season vs expectations but I still actually think those three guys are the solid part of this team.

 

While we all sort of look at the offense and make some lofty assumptions about it, I feel less sure about calling that the solid part of this team.

- I never bought into the notion that Crawford MUST return to his pre-2011 form in 2012 and now the chances of him getting off to a fast start are basically 0. We saw him succumb to the pressure of his contract last year. So I am not optimistic about him now that he will very likely have to deal with a slow start which may have ramifications deeper into the season

- Youk is fragile with his games played totals in decline

- Ortiz is old enough that any one of these years could be the year that he ages right before our eyes during the season much like a fighter can age right before our eyes during a single fight

- Ells is not likely to repeat the outstanding year he had last year although now that Crawford starts the season on the shelf, I think Ells gets closer to 2011 than Crawford gets to 2010.

I like AGons but I am not sure what I should be more worried about...his shoulder issues or fatigue at year end. Of all the things I have mentioned here, I am less concerned about AGons than any of the others (knocking on wood with one hand and typing with the other)

 

Teams have issues like this but the Sox have them right in the 1-6 spots with Peddey being the most solid guy they have followed by Ells, followed by AGons.

 

So right now, I like those 3 starting pitchers as a unit more than anything else.

[Meh]

Not looking to start a fight, but I'm wondering what do you guys think about the Yankees and Red Sox benches? Right now the Red Sox projected bench is Punto, Shoppach, McDonald and Avilies(I'm guessing Crawford isn't out too long) vs the Yankees (Jones, Nunez, Cervelli and one of Maxwell/Dickerson)

[redsoxfan3]

Pitching can make up for a good many things going wrong across the rest of the assets. As shaky as our pitching might look, I think those three guys at the top look to me like the most solid asset they have. Now somebody is going to hammer me about Beckett and his even/odd season tendencies, about Buch and his injury and about Lester and his 2011 season vs expectations but I still actually think those three guys are the solid part of this team.

 

While we all sort of look at the offense and make some lofty assumptions about it, I feel less sure about calling that the solid part of this team.

- I never bought into the notion that Crawford MUST return to his pre-2011 form in 2012 and now the chances of him getting off to a fast start are basically 0. We saw him succumb to the pressure of his contract last year. So I am not optimistic about him now that he will very likely have to deal with a slow start which may have ramifications deeper into the season

- Youk is fragile with his games played totals in decline

- Ortiz is old enough that any one of these years could be the year that he ages right before our eyes during the season much like a fighter can age right before our eyes during a single fight

- Ells is not likely to repeat the outstanding year he had last year although now that Crawford starts the season on the shelf, I think Ells gets closer to 2011 than Crawford gets to 2010.

I like AGons but I am not sure what I should be more worried about...his shoulder issues or fatigue at year end. Of all the things I have mentioned here, I am less concerned about AGons than any of the others (knocking on wood with one hand and typing with the other)

 

Teams have issues like this but the Sox have them right in the 1-6 spots with Peddey being the most solid guy they have followed by Ells, followed by AGons.

 

So right now, I like those 3 starting pitchers as a unit more than anything else.

 

It sounds like BC is content with this team the way it is, that is what concerns me the most. Basically, this team is a bunch of question marks. The talent is there, that is for sure. The thing that we have to worry about is injuries. Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz, when healthy and when they are on their A game, are arguably one of the best pitching trios in the game of baseball. The problem there is that the odds of one of them getting hurt or underperforming is very likely. That is my opinion, but it has happened in the past. I am hoping for the best, but you never know. I am confident with the offense that we have. That is not my concern. My concern is with our pitching all around. We have a bunch of question marks. Even our offense has question marks. Kalish and Crawford are both hurt. Who knows when they will return? Also, who knows if they will be able to be productive. Crawford needs to improve drastically. Who knows if Kalish will even have an impact in the majors this season? Our outfield concerns me. Youk is also a question mark. This team has nothing but question marks. Pedroia and Ellsbury have even been plagued with injuries in the past. No one knows if that will happen again. No one can predict anything like that. All I know if all goes well and this team stays healthy for the most part, we will be competitive. If not, then we will be lucky to get a wildcard spot and will probably be third best team in the AL East. I do know that there is a lot to look forward to, I just hope for the best. As fans, that is all we can do, everything else is out of our control.

[iortiz]

It sounds like BC is content with this team the way it is' date=' that is what concerns me the most. Basically, this team is a bunch of question marks. The talent is there, that is for sure. The thing that we have to worry about is injuries. Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz, when healthy and when they are on their A game, are arguably one of the best pitching trios in the game of baseball. The problem there is that the odds of one of them getting hurt or underperforming is very likely. That is my opinion, but it has happened in the past. I am hoping for the best, but you never know. I am confident with the offense that we have. That is not my concern. My concern is with our pitching all around. We have a bunch of question marks. Even our offense has question marks. Kalish and Crawford are both hurt. Who knows when they will return? Also, who knows if they will be able to be productive. Crawford needs to improve drastically. Who knows if Kalish will even have an impact in the majors this season? Our outfield concerns me. Youk is also a question mark. This team has nothing but question marks. Pedroia and Ellsbury have even been plagued with injuries in the past. No one knows if that will happen again. No one can predict anything like that. All I know if all goes well and this team stays healthy for the most part, we will be competitive. If not, then we will be lucky to get a wildcard spot and will probably be third best team in the AL East. I do know that there is a lot to look forward to, I just hope for the best. As fans, that is all we can do, everything else is out of our control.[/quote']

 

RSF3, this pretty much What I've been saying. Our team has a bunch of question marks. Some people here are more optimist than others. I do not like question marks. Face a season with a lot of question marks is not a good signal. Only time will tell, though.

[jung]

In spite of something of a checkered history I guess I like those three starting pitchers more than anything else this team has got because one of them is just at the end of his prime but still just on the fence between his prime and the latter part of his career (Beckett) and the other two guys are just getting into their prime years.

 

The everyday players are all over the map. Young but a little injury prone (Ells), young and a wreck (Crawford), old (Ortiz) and fragile (Youk). I actually wish that AGons had just shut his mouth at the end of last season. Nobody was pointing to him having been a problem. We all thought he did fine and he has to go and open his mouth and talk about how fatigued he was. I know we all just want to write that off but frankly it is hard to just do that. I can't say that I ever saw anything like that before. Never mind the "God did not want us to win stuff." I did not like that but, I can completely discount it as far as AGons performance is concerned.

[User Name]

RSF3' date=' this pretty much What I've been saying. Our team has a bunch of question marks. Some people here are more optimist than others. I do not like question marks. Face a season with a lot of question marks is not a good signal. Only time will tell, though.[/quote']

 

Every team has a lot of question marks though. Not liking them will not erase them from existence.

[User Name]

In spite of something of a checkered history I guess I like those three starting pitchers more than anything else this team has got because one of them is just at the end of his prime but still just on the fence between his prime and the latter part of his career (Beckett) and the other two guys are just getting into their prime years.

 

The everyday players are all over the map. Young but a little injury prone (Ells), young and a wreck (Crawford), old (Ortiz) and fragile (Youk). I actually wish that AGons had just shut his mouth at the end of last season. Nobody was pointing to him having been a problem. We all thought he did fine and he has to go and open his mouth and talk about how fatigued he was. I know we all just want to write that off but frankly it is hard to just do that. I can't say that I ever saw anything like that before. Never mind the "God did not want us to win stuff." I did not like that but, I can completely discount it as far as AGons performance is concerned.

 

How is Ellsbury injury-prone? He has had one meaningful injury in his entire career, and it was a freak accident.

[iortiz]

Every team has a lot of question marks though. Not liking them will not erase them from existence.

 

Every team has question marks, but some have more than others in order to achieve an objective.

[jung]

I guess Ells did only have the one injury but he came back once from it and then went back on the shelf again. In reality though that was the same injury just not healed up or given the time to heal. Frankly I have already slated him as their second most solid guy behind Peddey so Ells really is not much of an issue other than the likelihood that he can repeat his 2011. He does not have to be to make for a 1-6 that is frankly shaky. As I also said, I do now think that Ells is more likely to get closer to his 2011 than Crawford is to his 2010.

 

I still think Peddy, Ells and AGons in that order are the most solid of the guys they have in that 1-6 with Youk, Ortiz and Crawford being the biggest concerns and on balance I still think I have more faith in those 3 starting pitchers as a unit than I have in the 1-6 every day players.

 

The one concern I have about Ells is that I have rarely seen a guy that crashes into stuff so often and that is why I said "a little injury prone". He more than anybody else gets me with my heart up in my throat waiting for him to get up off the ground. He is just not that big a guy for the level of impact he absorbs or maybe doesn't absorb.

[seabeachfred]

Not looking to start a fight' date=' but I'm wondering what do you guys think about the Yankees and Red Sox benches? Right now the Red Sox projected bench is Punto, Shoppach, McDonald and Avilies(I'm guessing Crawford isn't out too long) vs the Yankees (Jones, Nunez, Cervelli and one of Maxwell/Dickerson)[/quote']

 

A little more power from your bench, perhaps. But I think that whole question is really not important at all. What is important is that you know have your five man rotation and two more who could step in and possibly do a bang-up job. We have three starters who if they stay healthy and pitch to their capabilities give us an edge in the top three spots, but we go down the tubes from 4 to 7 because we don't have a 4 and those candidates from five to seven that we have are the kind that would make me hide under the covers at night.