2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

agreed' date=' I rather actually pay a 1 year overpay for Ortiz for 15 million than 2 years at 24 million and losing the flexibility. Offering arb to Ortiz was a disaster for the Red Sox, with that 15 million you could have gotten a Madson and maybe Cody Ross to platoon in RF. Anyways, I assume that Ben has a plan and does not want to sign any Multiyear contracts [b']or give any top prospects away. [/b] Ellsbury's contract extension is looming and wouldn't be suprised if it's the largest contract ever given out to a OF.

I don' t think our system has many real jewels that will be stars of the future.

[jung]

I assume that Ben has a plan and does not want to sign any Multiyear contracts or give any top prospects away.

 

That is what I have thought....that BC did not see players that he felt he could commit to for multiyear deals so opted for Ortiz. Still don't like it whatever the rational. Plus if we see this resistance to even a percentage of signings that are typical for the league with regard to duration extend into next year, watch out. JH may be preparing to exit even sooner than I might think.

[iortiz]

I don' t think our system has many real jewels that will be stars of the future.

 

Yesterday I watched an episode on MLB.TV and they said that our farm at pitching is close to 0 compared with other organizations, I don't follow that much AA, A, is this true? if yes, scary moving forward.

[seabeachfred]

While some posters make opinions about the team and the game, other posters, the only thing that do is insult and post annoying things about other posters called "pessimist". The funny thing my friend, is that they claim themselves optimist and die-hard fans. They also order to stop annoying and bitching like if they were or had authority or something, interesting how this board works

 

I just get used to that crap

 

You know iortiz, you, 700, me and others on this board don't always agree with each other but we respect each other enough to give ourselves enough room to express ourselves and give our opinions, even if they may run counter to what we believe. However, there are a few here who do not believe we should have the right to criticize what the team has or hasn't done, and instead they criticize us for saying bad things about the team like everything the front office does is just dandy.

 

If we are honest with ourselves we know the team is still not up to par for a run at any kind of a title next season because there is still a lot of work to be done. We need a closer, we need a good starting pitcher, we need a RH hitting outfielder. However, there are those who don't want to hear anything like that from us. Some tell us to wait. Ok, nothing wrong with that, but there are those who do not want to hear anything negative at all. I thought this board was for airing out the different opinions that arise about a given topic concerning the Red Sox, but apparently to some it is a board where we all just go along to get along. Sorry, but I'm not wired that way. Give us a team ready to take on all comers an I will volunteer to carry the flag into battle. Just get us the players.

[jung]

I don' t think our system has many real jewels that will be stars of the future.

 

I am not all that revved up about stars honestly. I have had just about all of these supposed juggernaut lineups that I can take for a bit I think. The networks rule everything in the modern sports era. It does not matter the sport. The schedules are brutal. A team needs to be able to support the starting lineup with solid reliable subs more than it needs some superstar studded starting 9 that is out of gas by mid-season.

 

Using another sport for an example just a couple weeks ago, the Jets had to play on Sunday night and then travel just about coast to coast to play on Thursday night....just ridiculous. Anybody that has played that sport on an organized basis at any level from high school up knows that the day after you are as sore as if you had been in a car wreck. So Monday would have been a complete wash leaving Tuesday to practice, maybe part of Wednesday and travel Wednesday night for a Thursday game. But that is what the network wanted. As you might have guessed, the Jets lost that Thursday game.

[a700hitter]

Yesterday I watched an episode on MLB.TV and they said that our farm at pitching is close to 0 compared with other organizations' date=' I don't follow that much AA, A, is this true? if yes, scary moving forward.[/quote']I don't follow it as closely as others here, but i follow it enough to see that there is just nothing special there. The fact that those who do follow it closely are not on here vigorously touting the stars of the future unfortunately confirms my opinion.

[User Name]

You know iortiz, you, 700, me and others on this board don't always agree with each other but we respect each other enough to give ourselves enough room to express ourselves and give our opinions, even if they may run counter to what we believe. However, there are a few here who do not believe we should have the right to criticize what the team has or hasn't done, and instead they criticize us for saying bad things about the team like everything the front office does is just dandy.

 

If we are honest with ourselves we know the team is still not up to par for a run at any kind of a title next season because there is still a lot of work to be done. We need a closer, we need a good starting pitcher, we need a RH hitting outfielder. However, there are those who don't want to hear anything like that from us. Some tell us to wait. Ok, nothing wrong with that, but there are those who do not want to hear anything negative at all. I thought this board was for airing out the different opinions that arise about a given topic concerning the Red Sox, but apparently to some it is a board where we all just go along to get along. Sorry, but I'm not wired that way. Give us a team ready to take on all comers an I will volunteer to carry the flag into battle. Just get us the players.

 

Fred, what you need to understand is that you can do all of the above without insulting the posters that disagree with you. Notice how VA always calls you Fred, but i would need a week to come up with all the names you've called her during the short time i've posted here.

 

Food for thought.

[seabeachfred]

I have no problem with other people's opinions.

 

I just think some people have a fundamental misunderstanding about how the offseason works. A 25 man roster isn't created overnight.

 

Also, the whole "other board" gag is getting old. Let's stop posting about it please.

 

Also also, not to speak for VA but I believe her problem is with the attitude not the opinion.

 

You have no problems with other people's opinions. Fine, I take you on your word on that. I also agree that a 25 man roster isn't created overnight. My only reaction to that is that it seems a lot of time has elapsed and we're still short of filling our needs, but agreed, we all could use a little more patience on that, especially me. As for the "other board", this is the last time you will hear me utter that. Promise.

 

As for VA, there we have a distinct disagreement. Her problem is exactly with our opinions. She does not like to hear anything negative said about the Red Sox or the front office and she rails in anger when something of that nature is said. She has to learn that not everyone is going to agree with her. We are entitled to our opinions and, after all, isn't that what the Hot Stove League season is all about ?

[win red sox]

Yesterday I watched an episode on MLB.TV and they said that our farm at pitching is close to 0 compared with other organizations' date=' I don't follow that much AA, A, is this true? if yes, scary moving forward.[/quote']

 

1) Xander Bogaerts, SS, Grade B+: Borderline A-. Jumped from Dominican Summer League to Sally League and showed very impressive power, needs polish and experience but terrific upside. May end up at third base. I have him at a B+ right now, but that is conservative and he may end up at an A- by the time the book goes to press.

 

2) Matt Barnes, RHP, Grade B+. Has the build and stuff of a rotation anchor, and improved every year in college. Still some rough edges and he won't get to the majors as fast as Trevor Bauer or Danny Hultzen, but he could be a real steal at 19th-overall in the '11 draft.

 

3) Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Grade B: Plate discipline/strike zone issues increase risk premium and preclude a higher grade right now, but he has the power and glove of a prototype third baseman. Needs 400 at-bats in Triple-A.

 

4) Ryan Lavarnway, C-DH, Grade B. You can make a case for B+ based just on his bat but defensive questions are enough to drop down a notch. His glove isn't good, but I think his reputation as a total butcher is a little overblown. Whatever they do with him, he'll hit.

 

5) Garin Cecchini, 3B, Grade B: Higher ceiling than Lavarnway and better plate discipline than Middlebrooks, but hasn't seen full-season ball yet. Needs better defense but I like the bat. B+ or higher possible next year.

 

6) Brandon Jacobs, OF, Grade B: Tool-laden outfielder with 20/20 power/speed potential, remains raw with the strike zone but made significant progress in 2011. B+ or higher possible with further refinement.

 

7) Blake Swihart, C, Grade B-: Risky demographic as a high school catcher, but has plenty of offensive upside and should stick behind the plate. Another guy who could rank much higher once he gets some at-bats under his belt.

 

8) Sean Coyle, 2B, Grade B-: Hit for power, stole bases, drew walks, adapting well to second base defensively. A second baseman who can hit is harder to find than an outfielder, so I put him ahead of Brentz.

 

9) Bryce Brentz, OF, Grade B-: Prototype right fielder, with power, strong arm, strikes out a lot, questionable plate discipline, error-prone. Could develop into Ryan Ludwick-type hitter, or he could fizzle in Triple-A.

 

10) Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Grade B-: Jekyll-Hyde season, both statistically and scout-wise, with large variations in quality of both stuff and command from start to start making it hard to get a proper read on him.

 

11) Henry Owens, LHP, Grade B-: We need to see him pitch, but one of my favorite high school pitchers from the '11 draft due to feel for pitching. Will his velocity pick up?

 

12) Jose Iglesias, SS, Grade B-: Glove-only player at this point. His bat has been awful so far, but young for Triple-A and improvement is plausible. No power, might hit for a decent average someday. Defense superb.

 

13) Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Grade B-: Great glove, good feel for the strike zone, excellent track record in college until 2011. Did the switch to the less-potent bats expose his flaws? Could rank much higher, or much lower, a year from now.

 

14) Alex Wilson, RHP, Grade B-: Turned things around after rough Double-A debut in '10, will be ready for the majors sometime in '12. Could be fourth/fifth starter for some teams but more likely a reliever in Boston.

 

15) Brandon Workman, RHP, Grade B-: Profiles as workhorse starter. Workman the workhorse. Alliteration.

 

16) Kyle Weiland, RHP, Grade C+: Got knocked around in major league trial, has the stuff to be a four/five starter if he improves his location. Like Wilson, he could end up in relief.

 

17) Felix Doubront, LHP, Grade C+: Yet another guy who could be a four/five starter for many teams but is more likely to end up a reliever in Boston.

 

18) Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Grade C+: The good news is that his fastball continues to improve and he's been up to 97 MPH in winter ball. The bad news is that his secondary pitches went backwards last year, and he was annihilated in Double-A. Turns 22 in February, still has time to figure it out, but definitely in the high-risk category at this point. (Someone asked me why Stolmy went from almost being left off the list to #18. I tapped a source that gave me better info than I had when I was doing the preliminary list. That is why these things take time).

 

19) Christian Vazquez, C, Grade C+: Repeating the league, but was still age-appropriate for Low-A, with sudden power outburst to go with impressive defense. Could rank as high as 13. (This was originally a B- but I moved him down a little. He could still move back up)

 

20) Kolbrin Vitek, 3B, Grade C+: Didn't hit for power in High-A and defense is rough, but still has one of the better offensive ceilings in the system.

 

21) Miles Head, 1B, Grade C+: Ineffective in the New York-Penn League in '10, but something clicked last year, hit for power and average in Low-A. Power carried forward to High-A but he's got contact issues to work out, and right-handed hitting first baseman have an uphill battle. Could rank much higher next year.

 

22) Cody Kukuk, LHP, Grade C+: Pitched high school baseball a mile from my house. Projectable lefty, if you want to dream he could turn into Jon Lester, but we need to see him pitch.

 

23) Raul Alcantara, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm with good results in rookie ball, still refining his secondary pitches. High ceiling.

 

24) Jose Vinicio, SS, Grade C+: Cost $2,000,000 to sign in 2009. Draws raves on defense, hit .291 and stole 19 bases in GCL, but lack of power and poor plate discipline could hinder him.

 

25) Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Grade C+: Thrived after moving to relief, could surprise in 2012

[example1]

You should cite your work.

[jung]

I don't follow it as closely as others here, but i follow it enough to see that there is just nothing special there. The fact that those who do follow it closely are not on here vigorously touting the stars of the future unfortunately confirms my opinion.

 

As it regards SP I would have to opine that the system is real short of pitching. It is to the point of being a glaring weakness. We were not deep there when it was raided the last time. So now we are really shy of pitching in the system. We could recover but it is going to take a concerted effort to draft there and then resist the temptation to send them packing every time some big bat makes its way to the FA market. While I understand that prospects are are a bad bet on a percentage basis, the payoff in pitching prospects is a different story at least in my view. The Sox would do well to at least be more conscience of the value of not stripping the system of pitching prospects.

[iortiz]

I don't follow it as closely as others here' date=' but i follow it enough to see that there is just nothing special there. The fact that those who do follow it closely are not on here vigorously touting the stars of the future unfortunately confirms my opinion.[/quote']

 

If true it's a shame that our farm in that department is anemic.

[User Name]

Prediction: Alex Wilson and a healthy Felix Doubront are integral parts of the 2011 Red Sox bullpen. You read it here first.

[example1]

As it regards SP I would have to opine that the system is real short of pitching. It is to the point of being a glaring weakness. We were not deep there when it was raided the last time. So now we are really shy of pitching in the system. We could recover but it is going to take a concerted effort to draft there and then resist the temptation to send them packing every time some big bat makes its way to the FA market. While I understand that prospects are are a bad bet on a percentage basis' date=' the payoff in pitching prospects is a different story at least in my view. The Sox would do well to at least be more conscience of the value of not stripping the system of pitching prospects.[/quote']

 

Yep. They moved Kelly, Masterson and Hagadone over the past few seasons and those three alone would have been either in the big leagues or at the top of prospect lists.

 

I follow the system pretty closely and feel like it is pretty deep with offensive players, but low on pitching. That happens sometimes. No system is perfect all the time, and at times there is pressure to make a move for an established star via trade.

 

The reality is that the Sox spent a lot of capital last year in an effort to "make a run" and when it didn't work out, that left a few areas of concern. Some people see the 2011 team and see a team of utter failure that was flawed from the beginning. Others (myself included) see a team that ran into some misfortune with injuries, some s***** performances, and some terrible chemistry to undercut what was a really, really solid team.

 

Fortuantely, the core of that team is back for 2012 so we will have a chance to see. Are they far from being a legitimate contender like Seabeachfred would have us believe? Or are they basically a playoff team as currently constructed. Time will tell. I pick the later.

[example1]

Prediction: Alex Wilson and a healthy Felix Doubront are integral parts of the 2011 Red Sox bullpen. You read it here first.

 

I have said that before. You don't get to trademark it.

 

In any case, I agree with you restating it. I think both are on the cusp of contributing at above replacement level and both are very cheap. I would venture that Bowden could actually contribute too.

[jung]

Prediction: Alex Wilson and a healthy Felix Doubront are integral parts of the 2011 Red Sox bullpen. You read it here first

 

I hope you are right here as that would be about half a year at least ahead of conventional wisdom especially with regard to the Sox. Honestly I wish they would take more risks like that and bring guys up even if it means they might be a half season or so early.

[iortiz]

1) Xander Bogaerts, SS, Grade B+: Borderline A-. Jumped from Dominican Summer League to Sally League and showed very impressive power, needs polish and experience but terrific upside. May end up at third base. I have him at a B+ right now, but that is conservative and he may end up at an A- by the time the book goes to press.

 

2) Matt Barnes, RHP, Grade B+. Has the build and stuff of a rotation anchor, and improved every year in college. Still some rough edges and he won't get to the majors as fast as Trevor Bauer or Danny Hultzen, but he could be a real steal at 19th-overall in the '11 draft.

 

3) Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Grade B: Plate discipline/strike zone issues increase risk premium and preclude a higher grade right now, but he has the power and glove of a prototype third baseman. Needs 400 at-bats in Triple-A.

 

4) Ryan Lavarnway, C-DH, Grade B. You can make a case for B+ based just on his bat but defensive questions are enough to drop down a notch. His glove isn't good, but I think his reputation as a total butcher is a little overblown. Whatever they do with him, he'll hit.

 

5) Garin Cecchini, 3B, Grade B: Higher ceiling than Lavarnway and better plate discipline than Middlebrooks, but hasn't seen full-season ball yet. Needs better defense but I like the bat. B+ or higher possible next year.

 

6) Brandon Jacobs, OF, Grade B: Tool-laden outfielder with 20/20 power/speed potential, remains raw with the strike zone but made significant progress in 2011. B+ or higher possible with further refinement.

 

7) Blake Swihart, C, Grade B-: Risky demographic as a high school catcher, but has plenty of offensive upside and should stick behind the plate. Another guy who could rank much higher once he gets some at-bats under his belt.

 

8) Sean Coyle, 2B, Grade B-: Hit for power, stole bases, drew walks, adapting well to second base defensively. A second baseman who can hit is harder to find than an outfielder, so I put him ahead of Brentz.

 

9) Bryce Brentz, OF, Grade B-: Prototype right fielder, with power, strong arm, strikes out a lot, questionable plate discipline, error-prone. Could develop into Ryan Ludwick-type hitter, or he could fizzle in Triple-A.

 

10) Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Grade B-: Jekyll-Hyde season, both statistically and scout-wise, with large variations in quality of both stuff and command from start to start making it hard to get a proper read on him.

 

11) Henry Owens, LHP, Grade B-: We need to see him pitch, but one of my favorite high school pitchers from the '11 draft due to feel for pitching. Will his velocity pick up?

 

12) Jose Iglesias, SS, Grade B-: Glove-only player at this point. His bat has been awful so far, but young for Triple-A and improvement is plausible. No power, might hit for a decent average someday. Defense superb.

 

13) Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Grade B-: Great glove, good feel for the strike zone, excellent track record in college until 2011. Did the switch to the less-potent bats expose his flaws? Could rank much higher, or much lower, a year from now.

 

14) Alex Wilson, RHP, Grade B-: Turned things around after rough Double-A debut in '10, will be ready for the majors sometime in '12. Could be fourth/fifth starter for some teams but more likely a reliever in Boston.

 

15) Brandon Workman, RHP, Grade B-: Profiles as workhorse starter. Workman the workhorse. Alliteration.

 

16) Kyle Weiland, RHP, Grade C+: Got knocked around in major league trial, has the stuff to be a four/five starter if he improves his location. Like Wilson, he could end up in relief.

 

17) Felix Doubront, LHP, Grade C+: Yet another guy who could be a four/five starter for many teams but is more likely to end up a reliever in Boston.

 

18) Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Grade C+: The good news is that his fastball continues to improve and he's been up to 97 MPH in winter ball. The bad news is that his secondary pitches went backwards last year, and he was annihilated in Double-A. Turns 22 in February, still has time to figure it out, but definitely in the high-risk category at this point. (Someone asked me why Stolmy went from almost being left off the list to #18. I tapped a source that gave me better info than I had when I was doing the preliminary list. That is why these things take time).

 

19) Christian Vazquez, C, Grade C+: Repeating the league, but was still age-appropriate for Low-A, with sudden power outburst to go with impressive defense. Could rank as high as 13. (This was originally a B- but I moved him down a little. He could still move back up)

 

20) Kolbrin Vitek, 3B, Grade C+: Didn't hit for power in High-A and defense is rough, but still has one of the better offensive ceilings in the system.

 

21) Miles Head, 1B, Grade C+: Ineffective in the New York-Penn League in '10, but something clicked last year, hit for power and average in Low-A. Power carried forward to High-A but he's got contact issues to work out, and right-handed hitting first baseman have an uphill battle. Could rank much higher next year.

 

22) Cody Kukuk, LHP, Grade C+: Pitched high school baseball a mile from my house. Projectable lefty, if you want to dream he could turn into Jon Lester, but we need to see him pitch.

 

23) Raul Alcantara, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm with good results in rookie ball, still refining his secondary pitches. High ceiling.

 

24) Jose Vinicio, SS, Grade C+: Cost $2,000,000 to sign in 2009. Draws raves on defense, hit .291 and stole 19 bases in GCL, but lack of power and poor plate discipline could hinder him.

 

25) Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Grade C+: Thrived after moving to relief, could surprise in 2012

 

Good work win red sox.

 

Well if the grades are accurate, we only have a B+ pitcher in Barnes, and other 3 Bs-, I'm not sure how to read this.<_>

[example1]

I hope you are right here as that would be about half a year at least ahead of conventional wisdom especially with regard to the Sox. Honestly I wish they would take more risks like that and bring guys up even if it means they might be a half season or so early.

 

Doubront wouldn't be early. He should have been ready last year, but he showed up out of shape to camp and never really got it going, if I remember correctly.

 

Wilson is 25. Certainly not too young to have an impact.

[User Name]

Yeah, apparently you don't know how to read it iortiz.

 

Re: Wilson and Doubront.

 

I don't think Bowden should be part of the conversation, but that's just me.

[example1]

Good work win red sox.

 

Well if the grades are accurate, we only have a B+ pitcher in Barnes, and other 3 Bs-, I'm not sure how to read this.<_>

 

You should ask the guy who actually wrote it:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/13/2633672/boston-red-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2012

[a700hitter]

I have said that before. You don't get to trademark it.

 

In any case, I agree with you restating it. I think both are on the cusp of contributing at above replacement level and both are very cheap. I would venture that Bowden could actually contribute too.

Predictions cannot be trademarked. If they could, I'd be leading the league in that category.

[example1]

Yeah, apparently you don't know how to read it iortiz.

 

Re: Wilson and Doubront.

 

I don't think Bowden should be part of the conversation, but that's just me.

 

I don't have really high hopes for Bowden, except that in 52.2 IP at AAA last year (all in relief) he had a 2.73 ERA and 61 K and a decent WHIP. It's his last hope, honestly, but with a weird delivery and some experience as a reliever I could see him being a Scott Atchison type... a non-dominant innings-eating middle reliever.

 

Isn't that basically what this team could use at this point?

[a700hitter]

Doubront wouldn't be early. He should have been ready last year, but he showed up out of shape to camp and never really got it going, if I remember correctly.

 

Wilson is 25. Certainly not too young to have an impact.

Dubront seems to have arm trouble every season.

[iortiz]

Predictions cannot be trademarked. If they could' date=' I'd be leading the league in that category. [/quote']

 

Who predicted the collapse?, remember how some call us crazy?

[a700hitter]

I don't have really high hopes for Bowden, except that in 52.2 IP at AAA last year (all in relief) he had a 2.73 ERA and 61 K and a decent WHIP. It's his last hope, honestly, but with a weird delivery and some experience as a reliever I could see him being a Scott Atchison type... a non-dominant innings-eating middle reliever.

 

Isn't that basically what this team could use at this point?

It is a very odd delivery, but I don't know if it is successful at deceiving the batters.

[jung]

The reality is that the Sox spent a lot of capital last year in an effort to "make a run" and when it didn't work out, that left a few areas of concern. Some people see the 2011 team and see a team of utter failure that was flawed from the beginning. Others (myself included) see a team that ran into some misfortune with injuries, some s***** performances, and some terrible chemistry to undercut what was a really, really solid team.

 

I am sure I have done it somewhere as well but I think you are contradicting yourself in the same paragraph here. The flaws you are pointing out are not accidental coincidences that could not have been avoided:

injuries...everybody has injuries. The issue is not whether you are going to have them. The issue is recognizing that in major professional sports of this era they are unavoidable. If one insists on building a team stocking the starting 8 everyday players with big stars while leaving dog s*** to back them up, that is a team doomed to fail. As I stated in a separate but very recent post, the networks control major professional sports now. The schedules are brutal. I never disagreed with AGons comments in that regard. I disagreed with him opening his big mouth and complaining about it.

Terrible chemistry.....any baseball team in this day an age especially with guaranteed contracts that allows the delicate balance between stars with big money, long term contracts and young hungry players to get out of balance is asking for it. The Sox asked for it and got it in spades.

s***** performances....I guess Crawford's was unexpected so I will give you that. However Crawford should never ever have been here in the first place.

[a700hitter]

Who predicted the collapse?' date=' remember how some call us crazy? [/quote']and they are still calling some of us crazy.

[User Name]

I don't have really high hopes for Bowden, except that in 52.2 IP at AAA last year (all in relief) he had a 2.73 ERA and 61 K and a decent WHIP. It's his last hope, honestly, but with a weird delivery and some experience as a reliever I could see him being a Scott Atchison type... a non-dominant innings-eating middle reliever.

 

Isn't that basically what this team could use at this point?

 

If we include all three of Doubront, Wilson and Bowden, i would wager the bullpen looks like this at the end of the season:

 

Doubront

Albers

Wilson

Jenks

Melancon

Rhodes

Madson.

 

It's plausible the Sox sign both Rhodes and Madson, who they seem to be actively pursuing, with Bailey also a possibility.

[jung]

Doubront wouldn't be early. He should have been ready last year, but he showed up out of shape to camp and never really got it going, if I remember correctly.

 

Wilson is 25. Certainly not too young to have an impact.

 

You are right. I am not considering age at all but preparedness. Based on what they have done so far, the Sox we know would very likely start them in the minors next year. I like you and I think User would like to see them come up to start the year. Fortunately, while I still have to credit you two guys for calling it early, I don't think the Sox will have a choice this time.

[example1]

Dubront seems to have arm trouble every season.

 

I think that's more faulty memory than fact a700. He had some inflamation issues last year, but he's pitched more or less an average amount for someone his age and I haven't read about significant arm concerns anywhere. I could be wrong... do you have a source?