2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[YAZMAN]

If the FO has no confidence in Bard as a closer and is still seriously considering him as a starter' date=' then the Papelbon move makes even less sens.[/quote']

 

The Papelbon move makes sense. Not having a game plan after he signed with another team makes absolutely no sense. It not like they didn't anticipate the outcome with him.

[User Name]

While a good team needs a good closer to win, the Cl position is the most overrated one in the Majors. It's true that you need a certain mentality to be a closer, but closers emerge yearly in the league, and pitchers with the mentality and the stuff are a dime-a-dozen right now.

 

Agree with Yazman, letting Pap go at that price, provided they had a backup plan, was the right move.

[jung]

Not giving Bard a shot at closing is interesting as most of the young guns that end up closing come up through an organization like Bard has done. If you go out to get a guy that is young and has come up through somebody else's organization you end up paying way more money for him than you should be. The same is true of somebody that has closed already but has proven to be....lets say middling at best. You usually end up paying to much money for him.

 

I think there are to many people talking for the Sox right now. This guy has his opinion, that guy has that opinion...none of them are on the same page and none of them can shut up. We tend to blame the media for what...for reporting what these big mouths keep saying....isn't that sort of their job?

 

Who knows, maybe when the babble stops Bard will have his shot at closing. That is still probably what they should do because that still makes the most sense at this point but who can tell anymore.

 

Letting Paps go was the right thing to do...I am not sure they did it for what I would consider the right reasons but it was the right thing to do. Not allowing Bard his shot does not make sense but I guess can be done as long as they get somebody and talk to Bard instead of just leaving him to draw his own conclusions about what the F just happened. The problem is they are not likely to get a better closer than Bard but will end up paying way more money for one.

[a700hitter]

The Papelbon move makes sense. Not having a game plan after he signed with another team makes absolutely no sense. It not like they didn't anticipate the outcome with him.

The fact that the outcome was anticipated doesn't mean that it makes sense if they had no reasonable contingency plan. You can't divorce the two things-- Papelbon leaving and the succession plan. It should all be part of an integrated strategy. Papelbon was not leaving Boston to be closer to home or some other personal issue. He went for the payday. If the Sox had no reasonable plan to replace him and rebuild the bullpen, the sensible thing would have been to keep him and cut costs by letting Ortiz walk.

[jung]

If the Sox had no reasonable plan to replace him and rebuild the bullpen, the sensible thing would have been to keep him and cut costs by letting Ortiz walk.

 

I had thought about that the last few days myself. How does letting Paps walk and then committing through arb to paying Ortiz $14M per make sense? I would guess that the Sox would argue that in Paps case it was the term and not the per year and I think that is in fact the difference. At certain player ages and for certain positions at any age, the Sox are very sensitive to term.

 

Even if they are now planning based on spending more money this year than might have been considered earlier, if I had a vote I would probably vote to let Bard have his shot at closing mainly for the reasons I mentioned earlier. Even with a number of closers in this year's FA market the Sox are not likely to get a guy that is truly better but will instead just end up with a guy that costs them more money.

[a700hitter]

I had thought about that the last few days myself. How does letting Paps walk and then committing through arb to paying Ortiz $14M per make sense? I would guess that the Sox would argue that in Paps case it was the terms and not the per year and I think that is in fact the difference. At certain player ages and for certain positions at any age, the Sox are very sensitive to term.

 

Even if they are now planning based on spending more money this year than might have been considered earlier, if I had a vote I would probably vote to let Bard have his shot at closing mainly for the reasons I mentioned earlier. Even with a number of closers in this year's FA market the Sox are not likely to get a guy that is truly better but will instead just end up with a guy that costs them more money.

Agreed. If the rationale in letting Papelbon walk was the terms of the contract, it would make no sense to go sign a significantly older closer like Heath Bell to a large 3 year contract.

[User Name]

The logical way to go, as far as i'm concerned, is to make Bard the closer, trade for Thornton from the White Sox (who they are supposedly shopping "desperately") sign a couple BP arms, a starter, and a RHH OF.

[iortiz]

If the FO has no confidence in Bard as a closer and is still seriously considering him as a starter' date=' then the Papelbon move makes even less sens[/b']. Without Bard in the closer or 8th inning role, the bullpen will be in shambles. I don't think Heath Bell can be signed for 2 years when a broken down warhorse like Nathan got 2 years. I don't like giving Bell 3 years, because he is 34. If they do that, why didn't they give a 30 year old Papelbon 4 years. Their plan is very unclear at this point. Their direction should start to take shape in the next couple of weeks.

 

As for the thought of Kalish and Reddick platooning, a lefty-lefty platoon makes little sense. IMO one of these guys will stick and the other will be packaged in a trade.

 

Exactly.

 

You would be saving cents and spending dollars.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bell is getting 3-4 yrs guaranteed. The guy have been one of the best relievers in baseball over the last 3 seasons.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Don't worry guys - We're not getting Heath Bell. From everything I'm reading on twitter, he's going to the Marlins or the Blue Jays.

 

I like the Thornton idea. Over the past 4 years, he's posted a 2.84 ERA with a 10.7 K/9 and a 2.8 BB/9.

 

To put that into perspective, over the past 3 years, Bard has posted a 2.88 ERA with a 9.7 K/9 and a 3.5 BB/9.

 

Having both if them at the back of the rotation (both are flamethrowers) would be pretty deadly. Lefties OPS .619, and righties OPS .672 off of Thornton, that's pretty solid. I'll take Thornton - Bard as my 8th/9th inning combo all day. Especially when that combination costs just over 1/2 of the price of Pap by himself.

[jacksonianmarch]

Thornton is a dicey situation. He's on the wrong side of 35 and is coming off his worst season since 2007. Plus, he's never closed. If Bard shows he doesnt have the mental fortitude to close (something he hasnt proven yet), then you're turning over the closers role to another guy who hasnt closed yet. I still think the sox need to bring in an experienced closer to share the closing duties with Bard and let him get his feet wet.

[a700hitter]

I like the Thornton idea. Over the past 4 years, he's posted a 2.84 ERA with a 10.7 K/9 and a 2.8 BB/9.

 

To put that into perspective, over the past 3 years, Bard has posted a 2.88 ERA with a 9.7 K/9 and a 3.5 BB/9.

 

Having both if them at the back of the rotation (both are flamethrowers) would be pretty deadly. Lefties OPS .619, and righties OPS .672 off of Thornton, that's pretty solid. I'll take Thornton - Bard as my 8th/9th inning combo all day. Especially when that combination costs just over 1/2 of the price of Pap by himself.

Thornton will receive $11 million in 2012-13 and the White Sox hold a $6 million team option for the 2014 season including a $1 million buyout. Plus, we will have to trade talent to get him.

[a700hitter]

Thornton is also 35 years old.

[jung]

Are the WS shopping Thornton in the sense that they are not looking for much for him or are they shopping him in the sense that they are willing to give a team the opportunity to trade for him if they are willing to send off a painful amount of talent to get him?

[a700hitter]

Are the WS shopping Thornton in the sense that they are not looking for much for him or are they shopping him in the sense that they are willing to give a team the opportunity to trade for him if they are willing to send off a painful amount of talent to get him?

I doubt that they would disclose that they are not looking for much in return even if that were the case.

[User Name]

Get rid of the contract. Besides, even if he's 35, his peripherals and velocity are strong. At 5.5 million, he'd be a great value and allow enough money for another reliever with closing experience to be signed.

[SoxSport]

I think they want to go cheap on a closer. They simply don't value closers that highly to spend >$10M.

 

I suspected Pap wound up with the Phillies because the Phillies won't deal with Madson's agent, Boras, because of Drew. I've since seen that elsewhere, so it probably has some legs. The Phillies overpaid for Pap, and you wonder if he can hold up for 4-5 years.

[jung]

I doubt that they would disclose that they are not looking for much in return even if that were the case.

 

I realize that the are not going to announce their intensions but I was hoping that there might be some scuttlebutt about offers already on the table that had made their way to the public domain one way or the other. Maybe there is something out there in the public domain that gives us some feel for that qualifier "is shopping desperately". You just wonder what shape that desperation is taking. Shopping him desperately certainly sounds different than shopping him in earnest for example. I am asking more about that description of "shopping desperately" than anything.

[Elktonnick]

I think they want to go cheap on a closer. They simply don't value closers that highly to spend >$10M.

 

I suspected Pap wound up with the Phillies because the Phillies won't deal with Madson's agent, Boras, because of Drew. I've since seen that elsewhere, so it probably has some legs. The Phillies overpaid for Pap, and you wonder if he can hold up for 4-5 years.

 

Yup that's what they say down here which is both Phillies/Orioles country.

[mvp 78]

If the FO gives more than a flying f$&@ about a message board, then they are in the wrong field. I hope they don't give two shits about whatever we say on here.

[jung]

If the FO gives more than a flying f$&@ about a message board, then they are in the wrong field. I hope they don't give two shits about whatever we say on here.

 

+11111111

I would count them as completely hopeless if they paid any attention to us. Good Grief!

[jacksonianmarch]

Get rid of the contract. Besides' date=' even if he's 35, his peripherals and velocity are strong. At 5.5 million, he'd be a great value and allow enough money for another reliever with closing experience to be signed.[/quote']

 

They're not looking to move the contract. They know they are in a rebuilding mode and everyone on their staff and their lineup is trade bait. Plus, a 35 yr old reliever doesnt exactly scream "build around me." He's a very good complementary piece to have in the pen, hell, I'd love to see him in NY because he'd have a role that isnt above his capability. In Boston, though, he'd be called upon to either setup in the 8th or close, something I dont think he can do effectively anymore

[jung]

If the money he is making with the WS is $3M per, I don't think he would have to be in one of the key roles here. He could however be a solid BP arm that has experience and can help some of the younger guys along. Even paying him a bit more than $3M per would be fine I think. Heck the Sox need so many arms that he might well fit nicely into one of the slots here.

[User Name]

They're not looking to move the contract. They know they are in a rebuilding mode and everyone on their staff and their lineup is trade bait. Plus' date=' a 35 yr old reliever doesnt exactly scream "build around me." He's a very good complementary piece to have in the pen, hell, I'd love to see him in NY because he'd have a role that isnt above his capability. In Boston, though, he'd be called upon to either setup in the 8th or close, something I dont think he can do effectively anymore[/quote']

 

Because they're rebuilding is why it seems like common sense to try to move a 5.5 million reliever contract.

 

And why can't he set up? Apart from a rocky start to the season, the guy was lights out. The high BABIP and low LOB% scream fluke. He could be a set-up man in Boston, me thinks.

[a700hitter]

If the money he is making with the WS is $3M per' date=' I don't think he would have to be in one of the key roles here. He could however be a solid BP arm that has experience and can help some of the younger guys along. Even paying him a bit more than $3M per would be fine I think. Heck the Sox need so many arms that he might well fit nicely into one of the slots here.[/quote']He's making $5.5 million a year for the next 2 years.

[jung]

And why can't he set up? Apart from a rocky start to the season, the guy was lights out. The high BABIP and low LOB% scream fluke. He could be a set-up man in Boston, me thinks.

 

Maybe he can...but for the kind of money he could come to Boston and fit somewhere in the BP. If it turns out he is the best set up man we end up with...that is fine also....especially if for the WS the main issue is just moving the contract. Even rebuilding though he would seem to be a worthy guy to have around a year but maybe not. WS have gone though so much lately, maybe the want a clean slate.

 

Just saw your post 700. Thanks...even $5.5 is fine I think. I don't know where I saw $3M...obviously wrong.

[Elktonnick]

+11111111

I would count them as completely hopeless if they paid any attention to us. Good Grief!

 

It is marketing gentleman. Every high performance organization samples its market, especially internet activity today. They monitor all media. That is the smart thing to do. It about attitude and trends not necessarily about an individual opinion.

[jung]

It is marketing gentleman. Every high performance organization samples its market, especially internet activity today. They monitor all media. That is the smart thing to do. It about attitude and trends not necessarily about an individual opinion.

 

I think you would use marketing trends to determine something like having a red bill on your blue cap or an all blue cap. If you are using the fan base as a barometer for "cleaning house" or hiring a new manager or any personnel decision for that matter you are headed for trouble. I would be very disappointed if they actually used any information that they might glean from this site or any other fan forum as a viable input to personnel decisions.

 

I guess I would not mind if they looked at fan response to a personnel decision just to know what the response was after the fact but would not want them using fans as a viable input in the actual decision making process.

[a700hitter]

I think you would use marketing trends to determine something like having a red bill on your blue cap or an all blue cap. If you are using the fan base as a barometer for "cleaning house" or hiring a new manager or any personnel decision for that matter you are headed for trouble. I would be very disappointed if they actually used any information that they might glean from this site or any other fan forum as a viable input to personnel decisions.

 

I guess I would not mind if they looked at fan response to a personnel decision just to know what the response was after the fact but would not want them using fans as a viable input in the actual decision making process.

Don't worry. They are only interested in what the King of TalkSox has to say.

[Elktonnick]

I think you would use marketing trends to determine something like having a red bill on your blue cap or an all blue cap. If you are using the fan base as a barometer for "cleaning house" or hiring a new manager or any personnel decision for that matter you are headed for trouble. I would be very disappointed if they actually used any information that they might glean from this site or any other fan forum as a viable input to personnel decisions.

 

I guess I would not mind if they looked at fan response to a personnel decision just to know what the response was after the fact but would not want them using fans as a viable input in the actual decision making process.

 

Our organization ultimately fired someone a couple years because of information gleaned through an internet forum. The Sandusky case got traction causing the PA AG to reopen the investigation because of certain inforamtion revealed in an online forum.

 

Most high performance organiztions who follow a TQM or CQI mamangement philosphy do trend analysis as part of what's called an environmental scan. Now i don't know for fact that RS follow that model exactly but it would be generally consistent with their data driven management philosophy. Such organiztions regularly survey and monitor all media for customer reaction. Monitoring internet forums have became part of that process.