2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

and the sox failed to deal him while his value was at an all time high. His crash to earth and the likelihood that he ends up as the sox 4th OFer makes his value a lot less than it was in July

He could be well on his way to Lars-Land-- a prospect with no chance of cracking the Red Sox lineup and no value to anyone else.

[a700hitter]

Red Sox, Rays Have Checked In On Luis Ayala

By Mike Axisa [November 26 at 10:03am CST]

 

The Yankees got solid work out of several players they signed to minor league contracts last season, including reliever Luis Ayala. Now, a pair of their division rivals have interest in the right-hander. Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reports (on Twitter) that the Red Sox and Rays have checked in on Ayala this offseason.

 

Ayala, 34 in January, posted a 2.09 ERA in 56 innings for the Yankees last year, getting a ground ball 50% of the time. He struck out 6.27 batters for every nine innings pitched and walked 3.21 per nine. Ayala did not appear in the big leagues at all in 2010, and in 2009 he pitched to an ugly 5.63 ERA in 40 innings for the Twins and Marlins. His performance in New York figures to land him a guaranteed Major League contract this winter.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/red-sox-rays-have-checking-in-on-luis-ayala.html

 

This will not help.

[Palodios]

He could be well on his way to Lars-Land-- a prospect with no chance of cracking the Red Sox lineup and no value to anyone else.

 

I like the kid, he is talented, plays good defense and showed interesting things at plate (showed some passages of good disciple AB ).....

maybe he can fight an OF position or at least be a very good back up.

 

 

Apparently you two don't share a brain afterall

[a700hitter]

Apparently you two don't share a brain afterall

When I disagree with IOrtiz about a player and i make a funny remark like "Lars-Land", he does the mature thing and he laughs at the funny crack and he disagrees. He doesn't do an hour of research of fangraphs etc. to try to prove me wrong. He understands that these are opinions. He might be right. I might be right. Who knows.

[RonVermette]

I wouldn't be surprised if all our additions this offseason were free agent signings. Cherington might get an offer he can't refuse, but not likely this offseason.

[seabeachfred]

I would add Kalish to that list. In 5 years we could be laughing at the idea of trading any of those 3 cost controlled players except for truly elite pitchers.

 

A yeat ago I would have Ex1 and it has nothing to do with Kalish's injuries. It has everything to do with the composition of our lineup. We simply cannot be as left handed as we are, especially when you consider where we play half our games and also consider the plethora of southpaw pitchers in our league. Ortiz won't dare reject arbitration because he knows no team in the league will give a 36 year old DH a multi-year contract and so we're stuck with him for at least another year. That makes getting another RH bat in the lineup critical. By resigning Ortiz there is a complete ripple effect to the future of our team. It means Lavarnway can't become the DH and Kalish can be only a reserve at best unless the Red Sox want to face every left handed pitcher in Christendom. Epstein really left us a lineup mess with some of his stupid moves.

[iortiz]

When I disagree with IOrtiz about a player and i make a funny remark like "Lars-Land"' date=' he does the mature thing and he laughs at the funny crack and he disagrees. He doesn't do an hour of research of fangraphs etc. to try to prove me wrong. He understands that these are opinions. [b']He might be right. I might be right. Who knows[/b].

 

Yup. We need a bigger sample.

 

Given our circunstances (clogged in the books), I would shuffle the RF with Kalish and Reddick and see how it could work out, if they put combined something around .270/.330/.790 we'll be fine, otherwise I would bring someone before the trade deadline.

 

I would invest our entire budget (20 M) in our pitching needs (SP(s), BP arms, pitching depth).

 

I don't like the idea of having Lavernway as a full/part time as a DH, I'd prefer having Ortiz, but again, there's no budget, plus our ace closer gone, and our priorities and main holes are at our pitching staff.

[iortiz]

BTW If we go and play with Reddick/Kalish (OF) and Lavarnway (DH) and they prove that they are ready to be 'realities', this organization will gain a lot moving forward and a promising horizon will come.

 

This is called Cost of Opportunity. I hope we capitalize in our favor, if we move in that direction.

[sleepyhollow]

Ortiz taking arbitration means he gets $15M. There isn't another team out there that will touch him for that. The FO seems confused IMHO.

[mvp 78]

Where did you get the $15M number? Seems way high to me.

[Palodios]

Where did you get the $15M number? Seems way high to me.

 

It is just 10-20% above what he made in 2011.

[jung]

I don't understand the Sox offering Ortiz arbitration either. Regardless of how it works out it just about assures that Ortiz will cost the Sox more than he is worth and more than any other team would have offered him. Ortiz had already offered that he would allow the Sox to match any offer that he received from another team. The Sox will find it near to impossible to counter the simple fact that Ortiz had produced as well or better than any other DH in 2011. Correct me if I am wrong but isn't his ranking among other 2011 DH's combined with his last year salary just about the most important elements in arbitration? It would appear to me that things that truly would have an impact on what Ortiz might be offered from another team, things like age, the fact that he can hardly be expected to play at all in the field any longer and the relative value of the position of DH are almost driven to insignificance in arbitration.

 

This just about debunks the early rumors that the Sox had tossed 2 years at $6M per on the table.

 

While we have been critical of the Sox manager hunt process, offering Ortiz arbitration makes the manager hunt process look like a well orchestrated stroke of genius.

 

In addition we have had little to look at from the newly constructed FO that would give us some feeling of comfort that they were at least making progress toward becoming a solid FO. In most cases in the face of little in actual fact to go on we have had to surmise how the new FO was doing. Even Paps taking the Phils offer could only be described as an absence of action from the Sox point of view. This is the first definitive action they have taken and I don't find it at all comforting.

[mvp 78]

Well, if they're going to overpay for Papi, they must not really have the budgetary constraints some posters are worried about.

[Meh]

There might be some very tough decisions the Red Sox may have to make but from where I sit I would be adamantly against tradint Will Middlbrook or Ryan Lavarnway.

 

Sox could offer a deal like Bogarts, Kalish and one of Jacobs/Cecchine/Coyle and get Gio and still keep your Middlebrooks and Lavarnway. I think thats a fair deal for Gio and something Beane would have to think about for sure.

[example1]

Sox could offer a deal like Bogarts' date=' Kalish and one of Jacobs/Cecchine/Coyle and get Gio and still keep your Middlebrooks and Lavarnway. I think thats a fair deal for Gio and something Beane would have to think about for sure.[/quote']

 

That deal would suck for the Sox. Xander, Kalish and one of those other three would represent an overpay IMO. At least for Gio, who I just don't think warrants so much admiration.

 

Stuff-wise he reminds me of Bedard a few years ago, but I don't know how he would adjust from Oakland to Boston.

[a700hitter]

Well' date=' if they're going to overpay for Papi, they must not really have the budgetary constraints some posters are worried about.[/quote']I think you are right about this. In arbitration, Ortiz will do better than the $12 million that he got last year. I don't see any team offering him more than 2 years/$20 million, and that probably is not enough to walk away from $12-13 million for 2012.

 

If the Red Sox are budget conscious, this wasn't the move to make. They have plenty of money despite Theo's irresponsible spending. What is the Luxury Tax threshold under the new CBA and how much room do the Sox have under the cap?

[a700hitter]

More talk in today's papers about Bard starting. That would essentially leave us with no bullpen-- a train wreck. Hopefully Cherrington can build a better bullpen than Theo. Theo sucked with the pen. He was worse at that than with Free Agents. What was he good at? We have no major league ready talent in the minors.

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?&articleid=1383958&format=&page=1&listingType=sox#articleFull

 

Don’t ’pen in Bard just yet

By Michael Silverman / Baseball Notes

Sunday, November 27, 2011

 

It’s harder to find a good starter than a good reliever.

 

That alone should be the guiding principle to why the Red Sox [team stats] should seize this moment and convert Daniel Bard into a starter. That precept probably will not be enough to sway the Red Sox, who at least have not yet closed the door on the idea. For now, they are saying that they will wait until the new manager and pitching coach are hired and can weigh in with their preferences.

 

When the coaching staff is assembled and meets with the front office, the topic is likely to be greeted with this long run-on question: “Without closer Jonathan Papelbon [stats], how can we afford to lose Bard from that bullpen — he’s the closer-in-waiting, isn’t he? And besides, isn’t Alfredo Aceves already undergoing the reliever-to-starter conversion?”

 

The answers to all of the above are pretty well known.

 

What seems to be missing from the Bard discussion is just how much more value he could provide to the team long-term by being used as a starter rather than a reliever. The pain short-term includes a learning curve that likely could include its share of bumps and detours, plus the sheer number crunching, which suggests that because Bard has yet to crack 75 big league innings in one season, it will take him a couple of seasons to become a starter with the capability of approaching 200 innings for the Red Sox.

 

But it would be worth it , because 140 or 160 or 180 innings of Bard for a couple of seasons is worth a lot more than the 75 or so innings he provides now, no matter how high-leverage each of his late-inning outings as a reliever usually are.

 

Critics of this idea frequently point to Bard’s first year with the Red Sox in 2007, when, between two Single-A teams, he made 22 starts, pitched 75 innings and posted a 7.08 ERA and 2.053 WHIP. The team nipped the starter route in the bud and sent him to the bullpen the following year. By 2009, he was in the big league bullpen. But Bard and the Red Sox have each said that Bard’s problems in 2007 were a matter of being unable to make adjustments, both mentally and mechanically, to professional baseball. It had nothing to do with Bard’s suitability to be a starter.

 

He does fit the mold. He has that four-seam fastball that approaches 100 mph most nights, a nasty slider and a very good changeup. His build — 6-foot-4, 215 pounds — is perfect and makeup-wise, I’d argue his placid and cerebral demeanor is more suited to be a starter.

 

He’s also an unproven big league closer. I’d be willing to bet he’d be a better starter than closer.

 

And with the Red Sox having a choice of qualified and proven free agent closers who would not require the surrender of draft picks in return for signing — Ryan Madson, Francisco Cordero, Heath Bell — it would only cost money to bulk up on one or two closer options this season and give Bard the time to make the switch.

 

Curt Young, Bard’s latest pitching coach, sees no problems with the switch.

 

“I think Daniel has a great mental aptitude,” Young said. “What Daniel has is relatively uncommon — he’s a calm individual, he’s not overthrowing out there, he does a great job of staying within his mechanics. He’d definitely be a guy who could make the adjustment to starting. He’s got a great changeup, so with that fastball and slider, he does have a starter’s repertoire.”

 

Bard will be 27 next season. Now is the right time to try, and it’s not difficult to see reasons why it is not a cockamamie idea.

 

C.J. Wilson has spent the last two seasons as a starter after a couple of seasons in the Rangers bullpen, where he was more of a workhorse than Bard, going from 88 innings in 2008 to 129 innings in ’09, before jumping to 180 and 216 innings the last two seasons.

 

Alexi Ogando will be 27 next season, and he just finished his first season in the Rangers rotation, a 169-inning campaign after going 721⁄3 innings in the minors and majors in 2010.

 

The Rangers, after signing Joe Nathan, are going to allow Neftali Feliz, their closer the last two seasons, to stretch out this spring and enter the rotation as well. Part of that transition is being done out of need, since the Rangers are unlikely to re-sign Wilson. But the success of Wilson (31-15 record, 3.14 ERA, 1.215 WHIP the last two seasons) and Ogando (13-8, 3.51 ERA, 1.136 WHIP this year) as starters only helps make the Feliz decision easier.

 

The Rangers do not act in a vacuum.

 

The White Sox are transitioning Chris Sale to their rotation next spring.

 

When the Guardians traded for Justin Masterson from the Red Sox [team stats] in the middle of the ’09 season, they did it with the intent of converting him into a starter.

 

“Our scouts felt he had a very good chance to start,” Cleveland general manager Chris Antonetti said. “We obviously knew there was some uncertainty around that because he had been so successful in the bullpen. And as a starter, he’d be a little atypical with his arm slot and his delivery, there aren’t too many comparable starters to Justin. We felt he had the attributes and the makeup to at least see that process through and we’ve been pleased with the results so far.”

 

Twins general manager Terry Ryan found himself with a good pitcher on his hands in 1999 when he traded for a talented lefty who had first started out in the Astros’ low minors as a starter but did not exactly shine right off the bat. Ryan had him in the Twins bullpen for a couple of seasons before the team realized that the guy might make a pretty good starter.

 

His name was Johan Santana.

 

“He had a changeup, so he had three pitches, three pretty good ones,” Ryan said. “We sent him back to Triple A to develop that changeup, and I’ll be darned if he didn’t. It ended up being an out pitch for him. We got lucky. Our Triple-A coach (Bobby Cuellar) did a great job, but we got lucky, although our scouts recommended him as a starter, they had that in their report: ‘This guy’s got three pitches, he’s young, he’s got velocity, he’s athletic, he’s a worker, he’s calm, he throws enough strikes’ — that’s a pretty good report, enough for us to pull the trigger on him.

 

“It’s a story about scouting, that’s what it came down to.”

 

Scouting reveals ability. Not every reliever can make the switch. If the willingness is there — and it is with Bard — then the talent should rise to meet the job description.

 

Stocking a bullpen is almost as difficult as building a rotation. The volatility of relievers is something no team has been able to tame completely while the career of a starter tends to follow a far less choppy path.

 

The Red Sox still need a closer, and they still need to find another starter or two. There are solid closer options available on the open market but starting-wise, there is no telling if the Red Sox will be able to pull off the trade or sign the starter they are thinking about.

 

While there is no urgency to making Bard a starter, the Red Sox could force the issue and reduce their needs by following the logic and making Bard a starter.

[iortiz]

I think you are right about this. In arbitration, Ortiz will do better than the $12 million that he got last year. I don't see any team offering him more than 2 years/$20 million, and that probably is not enough to walk away from $12-13 million for 2012.

 

If the Red Sox are budget conscious, this wasn't the move to make. They have plenty of money despite Theo's irresponsible spending. What is the Luxury Tax threshold under the new CBA and how much room do the Sox have under the cap?

 

EDIT: Around 20 M before the cap?, so... If they pay him+- 20 M/2y, they will consider go over the cap?... I mean, the DH is not our priority, and if you pay him that contract you will eat around the half of our 2012 budget and still a lot of holes to fill in our pitching staff, right? I'm not sure if +- 10 M is enough in order to bring a solid SP and BP/depth arms.

[example1]

I think you are right about this. In arbitration, Ortiz will do better than the $12 million that he got last year. I don't see any team offering him more than 2 years/$20 million, and that probably is not enough to walk away from $12-13 million for 2012.

 

If the Red Sox are budget conscious, this wasn't the move to make. They have plenty of money despite Theo's irresponsible spending. What is the Luxury Tax threshold under the new CBA and how much room do the Sox have under the cap?

 

It is the move to make. Of course it is.

 

The budget isn't just about one season. If they don't offer arb and he rejects a one year deal they get nothing. If he takes it they get ortiz for another year without having to commit longterm. If they think his top priority is years not AAV (which it certainly could be) then they get two top picks. If one of those picks turns into an MLB regular then it was a cost-wise move.

 

There IS a difference between 12/yr and 20/2yr. It's 8m and another year of employment.

 

As much as everyone likes to assume the FO is stupid about this stuff, I think they know what they are doing with arb offers. Thie new CBA is going to create a lot of seemingly weird situations like this with fewer arb worthy players overall.

[a700hitter]

It is the move to make. Of course it is.

 

The budget isn't just about one season. If they don't offer arb and he rejects a one year deal they get nothing. If he takes it they get ortiz for another year without having to commit longterm. If they think his top priority is years not AAV (which it certainly could be) then they get two top picks. If one of those picks turns into an MLB regular then it was a cost-wise move.

 

There IS a difference between 12/yr and 20/2yr. It's 8m and another year of employment.

 

As much as everyone likes to assume the FO is stupid about this stuff, I think they know what they are doing with arb offers. Thie new CBA is going to create a lot of seemingly weird situations like this with fewer arb worthy players overall.

...and if Ortiz accepts the arbitration and hits 25-30 HRs with an .800 OPS, they'll have to decide again at the end of 2012 whether to offer him arbitration. If they offer the arbitration, they'll likely be locked in for another $13+ million for 2013. If they look to cut ties and don't offer the arbitration, they'll get no picks anyway.

 

Getting picks is fine if you are offering arbitration to someone who doesn't have a limited market like Ortiz. If you offer arbitration to Ortiz, they had better be prepared to pay more than his inflated 2011 salary. I remember when they offered arbitration to Tony Graffinino hoping to get draft picks. No one wanted him, so they signed him to a 2 year contract and placed him on waivers in March 2006. He was claimed by KC.

 

If Ortiz is feeling healthy, it's probably a good bet for him to accept the arbitration and roll the dice for 2013.

[iortiz]

E1 and A700... A question...

 

Beyond the term (1-2years) ... If they resign him +- 10 M (2012), and if they do not go over the cap... Are we going to have enough money to fill our real PIORITIES with solid players (pitching)?

 

In other words, What do you read between lines (Assuming they resign him), mostly moving forward this 2012 offseason?

[Palodios]

...and if Ortiz accepts the arbitration and hits 25-30 HRs with an .800 OPS, they'll have to decide again at the end of 2012 whether to offer him arbitration. If they offer the arbitration, they'll likely be locked in for another $13+ million for 2013. If they look to cut ties and don't offer the arbitration, they'll get no picks anyway.

 

Getting picks is fine if you are offering arbitration to someone who doesn't have a limited market like Ortiz. If you offer arbitration to Ortiz, they had better be prepared to pay more than his inflated 2011 salary. I remember when they offered arbitration to Tony Graffinino hoping to get draft picks. No one wanted him, so they signed him to a 2 year contract and placed him on waivers in March 2006. He was claimed by KC.

 

If Ortiz is feeling healthy, it's probably a good bet for him to accept the arbitration and roll the dice for 2013.

 

Ortiz is in good standing with this team. There very well may be a gentleman's agreement on this-- which I know is rare for Type A FA status, but considering how vocal Ortiz was about a long term contract, it would not surprise me.

[example1]

...and if Ortiz accepts the arbitration and hits 25-30 HRs with an .800 OPS, they'll have to decide again at the end of 2012 whether to offer him arbitration. If they offer the arbitration, they'll likely be locked in for another $13+ million for 2013. If they look to cut ties and don't offer the arbitration, they'll get no picks anyway.

 

Getting picks is fine if you are offering arbitration to someone who doesn't have a limited market like Ortiz. If you offer arbitration to Ortiz, they had better be prepared to pay more than his inflated 2011 salary. I remember when they offered arbitration to Tony Graffinino hoping to get draft picks. No one wanted him, so they signed him to a 2 year contract and placed him on waivers in March 2006. He was claimed by KC.

 

If Ortiz is feeling healthy, it's probably a good bet for him to accept the arbitration and roll the dice for 2013.

 

Right except he won't be locked into a multiple-year deal so they can make that decision in 2012. The alternative would be worse.

 

I also wouldn't assume that arb is going to cost them a huge amount of money. A DH isn't worth that much these days.

[example1]

To clarify, by "that much" I mean over the new arb minimum Thimbu in the new CBA. It will still cost a pretty penny.

 

I've been all for not resigning Ortiz. My ideal situation would be him declining arb and the sox being back in the drivers seat.

[jung]

There are only snippets of info available on the new CBA and I have not had a chance to read it. However, of interest is that there is no change to the tax threshold for 2012. So. it remains at $178M for 2012 and 2013 going to $189M in 2014. However there is a significant decrease in the tax rate for the first year a team goes over the cap, down a full 5% from where it is today. That takes it down to 17.5% for a team like the Sox this year. However for a team like the Yankees on their 4th straight year over the threshold, their rate now increases to 40%.

 

Considering when the Sox offered arb to Ortiz, the reduction in the tax rate may well be significant in the decision to offer him arb. It does more or less depend on how hard the Sox would intend going at the FA market next year and even who they go after. The compensation rules have also been changed. Maybe what offering Ortiz arbitration means is that the Sox really did not want to be pushed into offering him two years and are willing to pay money not to make that happen given the new tax rates. That would in fact at least make some sense to me as I might be able to buy into this idea of continuing to have a dedicated DH for one more year as long as they find a way to rest Youk and AGons. I don't expect those two players to suddenly be more resistant to fatigue and injury in 2012 than they were in 2011.

 

The new CBA seems really intended to punish teams for being very irresponsible fiscally but less punishing for making decisions that might in fact appear prudent if you are smart about what you are doing. That said, I am not sure that the new rules for draft choice's are fairly weighted nor if they even make sense. A draftee can only be signed to a minor league contract in the new CBA with teams encouraged to take the best player available at the time when they pick, effectively restricting their options in the draftee market. That is the tradeoff for lowering the potential salary available to all draft picks signed. The tax is really ugly for braking the draft pick threshold, a full 75%.

 

If the Sox are going to bust the total team threshold this year it still makes more sense to bust it big this year if they can calculate a way to get back under again for 2013.

 

or.... They could bust it big in both 2012 and 2013 if they can plan to get back under again for 2014 and 2015 when the threshold increases. That would take them back to a 0% tax rate again. It would still be kinda' foolish to bust the threshold small in 2012 and then bust it big in 2013. The problem with planning to bust it big this year is that there just are not that many good FA available in the 2012 FA season compared to the 2013 FA season at least for starting pitchers which is likely where the Sox would want to spend money. The way the tax is structured now could mean that the Sox are back in contention for a pitcher like CJ while still signing Ortiz. In fact it might even mean that it would be foolish for them not to make a serious run at CJ.

 

The problem with making the tax 40% for four years running over the threshold is that the Yankees are the only team potentially effected and they have not acted like they cared about the tax to this point. I think if they really wanted to do something effective they should have gone to 40%, scaling up from there eventually making the 4th year tax rate even more punishing. That would give the Yanks a chance to get back off the ledge of max taxation while finally making them pay a tax with bite if they choose to stay above the threshold.

 

Minimum salaries for MLB players go up substantially early in the new CBA and that may have been the tradeoff for players for how draftee salaries are being treated.

[Meh]

...and if Ortiz accepts the arbitration and hits 25-30 HRs with an .800 OPS' date=' they'll have to decide again at the end of 2012 whether to offer him arbitration. If they offer the arbitration, they'll likely be locked in for another $13+ million for 2013. If they look to cut ties and don't offer the arbitration, they'll get no picks anyway.[/quote']

 

If he accepts he's going to make around 15 million this year, if he has another good year in 2012 and accepts again he'll probably make 18 to 19 million...

[Meh]

That deal would suck for the Sox. Xander, Kalish and one of those other three would represent an overpay IMO. At least for Gio, who I just don't think warrants so much admiration.

 

Stuff-wise he reminds me of Bedard a few years ago, but I don't know how he would adjust from Oakland to Boston.

 

Bedard got Jones, Tillman and others. A-Gon cost your no 1 and 2 prospects and your no 5. A-Gon is a lot better but Gio has a lot more team control years and is a lefty pitcher. Your #3 and #7 to 11 propsects and a major league ready of seems fair.

[iortiz]

There are only snippets of info available on the new CBA and I have not had a chance to read it. However, of interest is that there is no change to the tax threshold for 2012. So. it remains at $178M for 2012 and 2013 going to $189M in 2014. However there is a significant decrease in the tax rate for the first year a team goes over the cap, down a full 5% from where it is today. That takes it down to 17.5% for a team like the Sox this year. However for a team like the Yankees on their 4th straight year over the threshold, their rate now increases to 40%.

 

Considering when the Sox offered arb to Ortiz, the reduction in the tax rate may well be significant in the decision to offer him arb. It does more or less depend on how hard the Sox would intend going at the FA market next year and even who they go after. The compensation rules have also been changed. Maybe what offering Ortiz arbitration means is that the Sox really did not want to be pushed into offering him two years and are willing to pay money not to make that happen given the new tax rates. That would in fact at least make some sense to me as I might be able to buy into this idea of continuing to have a dedicated DH for one more year as long as they find a way to rest Youk and AGons. I don't expect those two players to suddenly be more resistant to fatigue and injury in 2012 than they were in 2011.

 

The new CBA seems really intended to punish teams for being very irresponsible fiscally but less punishing for making decisions that might in fact appear prudent if you are smart about what you are doing. That said, I am not sure that the new rules for draft choice's are fairly weighted nor if they even make sense. A draftee can only be signed to a minor league contract in the new CBA with teams encouraged to take the best player available at the time when they pick, effectively restricting their options in the draftee market. That is the tradeoff for lowering the potential salary available to all draft picks signed. The tax is really ugly for braking the draft pick threshold, a full 75%.

 

If the Sox are going to bust the total team threshold this year it still makes more sense to bust it big this year if they can calculate a way to get back under again for 2013.

 

or.... They could bust it big in both 2012 and 2013 if they can plan to get back under again for 2014 and 2015 when the threshold increases. That would take them back to a 0% tax rate again. It would still be kinda' foolish to bust the threshold small in 2012 and then bust it big in 2013. The problem with planning to bust it big this year is that there just are not that many good FA available in the 2012 FA season compared to the 2013 FA season at least for starting pitchers which is likely where the Sox would want to spend money. The way the tax is structured now could mean that the Sox are back in contention for a pitcher like CJ while still signing Ortiz. In fact it might even mean that it would be foolish for them not to make a serious run at CJ.

 

The problem with making the tax 40% for four years running over the threshold is that the Yankees are the only team potentially effected and they have not acted like they cared about the tax to this point. I think if they really wanted to do something effective they should have gone to 40%, scaling up from there eventually making the 4th year tax rate even more punishing. That would give the Yanks a chance to get back off the ledge of max taxation while finally making them pay a tax with bite if they choose to stay above the threshold.

 

Minimum salaries for MLB players go up substantially early in the new CBA and that may have been the tradeoff for players for how draftee salaries are being treated.

 

That's exactly what I was thinking Jung.

 

It woundn't make sense bust the cap by only a couple of millions this year... I wouldn't bust it if that were the case.

 

BTW good analysis.

[iortiz]

If he accepts he's going to make around 15 million this year' date=' if he has another good year in 2012 and accepts again he'll probably make 18 to 19 million...[/quote']

 

15 M and likely won't go over the cap? ...

 

They better have figure it out how they gonna fix our pitching.

[jung]

Offering Ortiz arbitration still would seem to box the Sox in as far as offensive moves this offseason. The Sox would be incredibly lucky to come out of arbitration any better than $14-$15M for Ortiz. It is almost like they are throwing up their hands and deciding not to try to replace Ortiz bat even with something like the $14-$15M they are going to end up paying him. Smacks of another player decision with a good deal of marketing content. While finding a right hand bat for $8-$9M sounded like a challenge, there is nobody they can get for $14-$15M? No doubting that Ortiz is a popular player in Boston and a guy that puts fannies in seats. They will remain heavily weighted to the left side with no other power hitter from the right than oft injured Youk and their second baseman all be it the heaviest hitting second baseman in baseball.

 

Probably means expect Kalish to be manning right field.