The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[ORS]

Out of the top 4' date=' 3rd is actually the spot where you should put your worst hitter (of the top 4). Just because other teams do it doesn't mean it's necessarily the best idea.[/quote']

Never heard this before, and I'd love a break down.

[Will617]

Never heard this before' date=' and I'd love a break down.[/quote']

 

I couldn't find the original article, but I found one that argues something similar:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/constructing-lineups/

 

The justification for not batting your best hitter third is: "One of the problems is that teams often put their highest OBP batter in the third position, but the #3 spot is the one LEAST likely to lead off the second inning. James said it, others agreed, and The Book confirms it. In addition, The Book found that the #3 hitter has more plate appearances with two out and nobody on. So the run value of every hit (except the home run) is lower in the third position than in any other of the top five positions. That's why they recommend putting your fifth-best hitter in the three spot."

 

For the more statistically inclined, you should look up Markov Chains. Personally, I can't understand it since I'm pretty terrible at actual statistics. I just read the words of smarter people and pass it on. :thumbsup:

[CoachC.]

Harper in The Daily News says Cashman met with Crawford to let him know that if the deal for Lee didn't materialize, Yankees would be interested in signing Crawford and flipping an OF for pitching. They hoped Crawford would wait to sign.

 

Now I know why Theo outbid Angels by 40 million.

[CoachC.]

The Red Sox left little to chance. Scouts were assigned to follow Crawford, Gonzalez and Jayson Werth, the other outfielder on the Sox radar, not for a series or two, but a half season.

 

Detailed "white papers" were prepared, arguing the pros and cons of acquiring the players.

 

Bill James, the statistical analyst, did a study analyzing how young, athletic players like Crawford age over the course of a long-term contract and comparing various body types. James concluded that such players generally kept their value until age 35 or 36.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/columns/story?columnist=edes_gordon&id=5904434

[SoxSport]

The worst of your 4 best hitters. As a general rule, the better your hitter the higher up they should hit.

Also, what Tito does is not necessarily what's best for the team. Theo certainly has his faults as a manager.

 

Tito is pretty good at shuffling lineups. This year, he has to platoon Papi.

 

Whether Crawford hits leadoff or not will depend on where they think they need him, and where he agrees to hit. He will have an input, I'm sure. He has power and run-producing ability, and could bat 3rd. My guess is Ellsbury 9th, Crawford 1st, Pedroia 2nd.

 

Your best hitter bats 3rd, your big RBI guy bats 4th. Ted Williams batted 3rd his whole career. Youks and AdGon can bat 3rd or 4th.

[Spudboy]

According to Buster Olney' date=' Jarrod Saltalamacchia has a minor league option left.[/quote']

 

That conflicts with what Abraham posted two weeks ago. If true, then everyone here who pines for Martin should be orgasmic.

 

Either way,Tek will likely start about 80 games. If he's healthy

[italstallianion]

ESPN seems to have a list of players OPS against lefties and righties weighted for the past 3 seasons. I'm not sure what the weighting proportion is, but it's something. This should be in alphabetical order.

 

 

Against RHP:

Cameron 730

Crawford 860

Drew 911

Ellsbury 729

Gonzo 981

Lowrie 667

McDonald 661

Ortiz 932

Pedroia 861

Salty 745

Scutaro 727

VTek 649

Youk 931

 

Against LHP:

Cameron 980

Crawford 684

Drew 767

Ellsbury 748

Gonzo 787

Lowrie 944

McDonald 846

Ortiz 674

Pedroia 809

Salty 571

Scutaro 761

VTek 838

Youk 1.067

[SCM33]

Buster_ESPN

Heard this: Boston is viewed as the front-runner for Russell Martin at this point, according to folks with knowledge of the talks.

[jacksonianmarch]

and why shouldnt they be? The sox can offer him the starting catcher position for the forseeable future and in Fenway, with that park and that lineup, he can recoup his value a la Adrian Beltre. The Yankees can offer him the starting gig with the caveat that a massive prospect is right over his shoulder and any slip ups will lead to his removal. If I were the sox, I would sign him to a reasonable deal for 1 yr with a team option for something like $7 million for next yr, so that if he pulls a Beltre, they can bring him back on their terms

[The Celtbot]

I read somewhere that Martin would be signed most likely on a 2 year contract if they sign him. I wouldn't mind, if he does bad we can always drop him assuming his contract is worth mega bucks and bring Salty back up.

[Palodios]

This Martin thing still baffles me. He hit what, .650 last year? Olivo's .765, and better arm cost 2/7 from the Mariners, and they're thinking 7 mill to Martin? Baffling. Who knows if he'll keep up that OBP with a bad hip-- they should have gone for defense at C years ago.

[BSN07]

That conflicts with what Abraham posted two weeks ago. If true, then everyone here who pines for Martin should be orgasmic.

 

Either way,Tek will likely start about 80 games. If he's healthy

 

Really? Salty being able to go to AAA would be ideal.

 

 

I think they need to sign Martin to 2 years at least.

[Dojji]

Take a look at WHERE those points are distributed. You don't need ungodly power out every position. Martin's always worked the count and kept his OBP high even when his power suffered. Combine that with reasonable defense as catcher and OPS/OPS+ really doesn't tell the story of his value IMHO. A guy in a defensive position who at least keeps his OBP high can be excused a lack of power, especially when he defends as well as Martin does.

[BSN07]

Take a look at WHERE those points are distributed. You don't need ungodly power out every position. Martin's always worked the count and kept his OBP high even when his power suffered. Combine that with reasonable defense as catcher and OPS/OPS+ really doesn't tell the story of his value IMHO. A guy in a defensive position who at least keeps his OBP high can be excused a lack of power' date=' especially when he defends as well as Martin does.[/quote']

 

I can't find it right now, but I believe Martin has thrown out Base stealers at a good rate. Something in the high 30's I believe.

[Palodios]

Take a look at WHERE those points are distributed. You don't need ungodly power out every position. Martin's always worked the count and kept his OBP high even when his power suffered. Combine that with reasonable defense as catcher and OPS/OPS+ really doesn't tell the story of his value IMHO. A guy in a defensive position who at least keeps his OBP high can be excused a lack of power' date=' especially when he defends as well as Martin does.[/quote']

 

I explicitly mentioned OBP in my post. Except for the big fact that he's coming off hip surgery, and has been in decline for a good time. Plus, Olivo has been rated much higher for defense/ throwing out base stealers, everywhere I've seen it.

[Dojji]

you knew this team preferred OBP without power to power without OBP long before you learned the team liked Martin better than Olivo.

 

It's telling which teams Olivo keeps playing for. Cellar dwellers and also-rans. If there's such a thing as a "winning player" Miguel Olivo isn't one.

[BSN07]

you knew this team preferred OBP without power to power without OBP long before you learned the team liked Martin better than Olivo.

 

It's telling which teams Olivo keeps playing for. Cellar dwellers and also-rans. If there's such a thing as a "winning player" Miguel Olivo isn't one.

 

But chicks dig the long ball :thumbsup:

[Will617]

But chicks dig the long ball :thumbsup:

 

I guess that the Sox view Olivo as a bigger risk, and they feel his hip injury is not a problem going forward. Outside of Colorado, Olivo has had only one real good offensive season, and Martin has perhaps underperformed the past few years?

I don't know for sure, though. I'd also guess that they like Martin's flexibility.

[BSN07]

I guess that the Sox view Olivo as a bigger risk, and they feel his hip injury is not a problem going forward. Outside of Colorado, Olivo has had only one real good offensive season, and Martin has perhaps underperformed the past few years?

I don't know for sure, though. I'd also guess that they like Martin's flexibility.

 

Martin>Olivo

 

Martin possible upside is much higher then Olivo's IMO. Olivo may be a surer thing at this point in time because of the ? surrounding Martin's hip.

[Palodios]

Martin>Olivo

 

Martin possible upside is much higher then Olivo's IMO. Olivo may be a surer thing at this point in time because of the ? surrounding Martin's hip.

 

Except that when you have a lineup like the one they have now, you need to go with something that will work, defensively, and offensively. You don't overpay on projects. This is a guy who has hit .821 versus lefties over his career in a lineup that needs help versus lefties.

[Dipre]

Olivo has an attitude problem, and knowing this FO's aversion to "colorful characters" it's unsurprising they wouldn't touch him with a ten-foot pole.

[italstallianion]

I agree with Palodios. I'm not very high on Martin and I don't think we need him at all. I think that if the right handed bat or the defensive catcher was that important that we should have saved the money on Olivo (who I think is cheaper and more qualified at those purposes), but the only reason why I'm not going to destroy Theo for looking at Martin is because I still think that he'll sign 2 good relievers anyway. If however, the Martin signing prevents us from signing at least 2 good relievers, then I'm going to madder than a legless Ethiopian watching a doughnut roll down a hill.

[Palodios]

Olivo has an attitude problem' date=' and knowing this FO's aversion to "colorful characters" it's unsurprising they wouldn't touch him with a ten-foot pole.[/quote']

 

How often do you see the worst offensive player on a team bitching about anything?

[Dipre]

How often do you see the worst offensive player on a team bitching about anything?

 

He doesn't bitch to the media, but he constantly bickers with game officials about everything from balls and strikes to Safe calls etc etc etc.

 

If i had my way, the Sox would've gotten Ronny Paulino and his .881 career OPS vs lefties (which includes a .390 OBP). He's never been a regular, but he'd be perfect as a complimentary piece.

 

On the other hand, i'll say what i always say, we're looking at things from the outside, as fans, we're not talent evaluators or statisticians. There has to be a reason why they're going so hard after Martin instead of going after two of the guys mentioned above, who are much much cheaper.

 

That being said, carrying three catchers makes zero sense, so Salty better still have an option.

[italstallianion]

Salty does have an option (according to Buster Olney) so this seems to be insurance and potential more than anything else.

[BSN07]

Salty does have an option (according to Buster Olney) so this seems to be insurance and potential more than anything else.

 

Yes when you reported that this morning I became much more sold on Martin. A Martin/Tek platoon and Salty marinating in AAA, would be the best depth at Catcher the Sox have had in awhile.

[Spudboy]

He doesn't bitch to the media, but he constantly bickers with game officials about everything from balls and strikes to Safe calls etc etc etc.

 

If i had my way, the Sox would've gotten Ronny Paulino and his .881 career OPS vs lefties (which includes a .390 OBP). He's never been a regular, but he'd be perfect as a complimentary piece.

 

On the other hand, i'll say what i always say, we're looking at things from the outside, as fans, we're not talent evaluators or statisticians. There has to be a reason why they're going so hard after Martin instead of going after two of the guys mentioned above, who are much much cheaper.

 

That being said, carrying three catchers makes zero sense, so Salty better still have an option.

 

I'm bewildered by the catcher situation.

 

Maybe I've been in a vodka induced haze, but I recall one of the Boston.com writers saying that Salty would have to clear waivers before he could be assigned to Pawtucket. That was about a week or two ago. Today, Abraham said that Salty has an option remaining! What the f*** is it?

 

As I said yesterday, carrying three catchers on the 25 man roster makes no sense.

 

I believe Dusty Brown was released and Wagner in recovering from an injury. That means that there is only one AAA catcher available to fill in in the event that Tek has some kind of problem, injury or otherwise. Salty is coming off surgery and has not, to this point, demonstrated that he is ready at the MLB level.

 

Exposito and Lavanway are at least two years away from what I can tell. So I guess acquiring an MLB ready catcher makes sense as long as Salty can be optioned to Pawtucket.

 

In any case, If the Sox sign Martin, how much money is left to acquire solid bull pen help?

 

Using my old school math I believe the Sox have about 10-14 mil left to spend after signing Crawford and before signing Martin. That's kind of a slim margin unless the Sox are planning to move someone like, for example, Cameron (if that happens I hope they sign Darnell!).

 

I have to say, what initially looked like a boring and potentially unfulfilling off-season sure has become interesting!

 

However the catcher situation eventually shakes out, the Sox are poised to score a s*** ton of runs. Let's all hope there is a pen in place to hold a lead.

[mvp 78]

If Martin comes cheap and only plays part time, I'm ok with the pickup. Injuries have killed this guy to the point the Dodgers wanted to put him at 3rd but figured Blake and whoever else would give them better production. I don't see him as ever being a fulltime guy again. Kiss goodbye to the 2008 stats and allstar appearances (not that those really matter). The Dodgers pitched well with him behind the plate, but that was more due to their division than anything else.

 

I guess I'm not understanding the fascination. He's not much of an upgrade over a cheaper Salty. Spend the $$$ on the bullpen and Bill Hall instead.

[Palodios]

I hear that Bill Hall can play catcher too....

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Is there anything he doesn't do?