The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[Dipre]

I was talking about getting creative-- something this FO has been known to do. Ordonez will cost atleast 10' date=' maybe as much as 12-- the Sox wouldn't pay more than 12 on Beltran-- they'd make the Mets eat atleast 6. How is this any different?[/quote']

 

Because you keep making assumptions that these things will work out, when there's no guarantee they will.

 

Look at it this way:

 

There's no guarantee the Mets will include money in a Beltran trade. If you include MLB players in the trade, you're creating holes that need to be filled.

 

You sign Ordonez, you create no holes, you don't have to "get creative" or any other inventions. Then you can go after Lee and have enough time to say, trade Dice-K to free up some more salary without the possibility of it blowing up in your face.

 

It's all about realistic possibilities and minimizing the variables. When you're contingent on another team's decisions to set up your roster you're asking for trouble.

 

Now don't get me wrong, there's no guarantee Ordonez signs either, but it's a lot more plausible than expecting the Mets to both trade Beltran to the Sox and include money in the deal.

[Will617]

There's no guarantee the Mets will include money in a Beltran trade. If you include MLB players in the trade, you're creating holes that need to be filled.

 

You sign Ordonez, you create no holes, you don't have to "get creative" or any other inventions. Then you can go after Lee and have enough time to say, trade Dice-K to free up some more salary without the possibility of it blowing up in your face.

 

It's all about realistic possibilities and minimizing the variables. When you're contingent on another team's decisions to set up your roster you're asking for trouble.

 

Now don't get me wrong, there's no guarantee Ordonez signs either, but it's a lot more plausible than expecting the Mets to both trade Beltran to the Sox and include money in the deal.

 

I don't think that it's worth it to the Sox to acquire Lee, but I don't think you're correct on a couple points.

1. That the Mets won't include money to trade Beltran. No one will take on his contract in total, even if the Mets give him away for nothing. In order to move him, they will have to eat a chunk of salary, making it close to Ordonez's salary.

2. That a trade for Beltran+Lee signing puts the team in a worse position than just acquiring Ordonez and Lee outright. The pieces in the Beltran trade are either Matsuzaka or Scutaro - assuming Lee is signed, he fills in Matsuzaka's spot, or if Scutaro is signed the Sox break camp with Lowrie as their shortstop.

Theo seems reluctant to move Dice-K, though. I think that, if he can't get a suitable RH OF, the Mets would move Beltran and $6-8 mil for Scutaro. It fits the needs of both teams perfectly. Mets need a 2B and money off the books, Sox need a RH OF bat.

[Palodios]

Because you keep making assumptions that these things will work out, when there's no guarantee they will.

 

Look at it this way:

 

There's no guarantee the Mets will include money in a Beltran trade. If you include MLB players in the trade, you're creating holes that need to be filled.

 

You sign Ordonez, you create no holes, you don't have to "get creative" or any other inventions. Then you can go after Lee and have enough time to say, trade Dice-K to free up some more salary without the possibility of it blowing up in your face.

 

It's all about realistic possibilities and minimizing the variables. When you're contingent on another team's decisions to set up your roster you're asking for trouble.

 

Now don't get me wrong, there's no guarantee Ordonez signs either, but it's a lot more plausible than expecting the Mets to both trade Beltran to the Sox and include money in the deal.

 

How is it any more likely the Sox get Ordonez than Beltran? They both will cost between 10-14 million, and at this point, both are equally likely. If they trade for Beltran and don't include any major league players in the deal, how is it any different? You just went off on a tangent because I was thinking of possible solutions to free up money for bullpen, but you're saying they should spend the same amount of money without proposing solutions.

[Dipre]

I don't think that it's worth it to the Sox to acquire Lee' date=' but I don't think you're correct on a couple points.[/quote']

 

1. That the Mets won't include money to trade Beltran. No one will take on his contract in total, even if the Mets give him away for nothing. In order to move him, they will have to eat a chunk of salary, making it close to Ordonez's salary.

 

Then you'd have to send them a good prospect (unlikely) or a player on the Major League roster, creating another hole which will cost money to fill.

 

2. That a trade for Beltran+Lee signing puts the team in a worse position than just acquiring Ordonez and Lee outright. The pieces in the Beltran trade are either Matsuzaka or Scutaro - assuming Lee is signed, he fills in Matsuzaka's spot, or if Scutaro is signed the Sox break camp with Lowrie as their shortstop.

 

That becomes salary relief for the Beltran deal, reducing his salary. If you give up Dice-K to turn Beltran's 18 million salary into 12 million it's not the same as signing Ordonez for 12 million then trading Dice-K and getting 8 million of real salary relief.

 

Theo seems reluctant to move Dice-K, though. I think that, if he can't get a suitable RH OF, the Mets would move Beltran and $6-8 mil for Scutaro. It fits the needs of both teams perfectly. Mets need a 2B and money off the books, Sox need a RH OF bat.

 

Again you move a piece from the ML roster that would need replacing, not to mention that i posted in another thread how Tito said that they don't view Lowrie as the starting SS, but rather Scutaro.

 

Beltran and Lee simply don't make sense on a bunch of levels.

[Interestedobserver]

 

2. The pieces in the Beltran trade are either Matsuzaka or Scutaro - assuming Lee is signed, he fills in Matsuzaka's spot, or if Scutaro is signed the Sox break camp with Lowrie as their shortstop.

 

 

The Mets want salary relief. Why should they eat salary to send Beltran to Boston and then take back one of those contracts?

[Dipre]

How is it any more likely the Sox get Ordonez than Beltran? They both will cost between 10-14 million' date=' and at this point, both are equally likely. If they trade for Beltran and don't include any major league players in the deal, how is it any different? You just went off on a tangent because I was thinking of possible solutions to free up money for bullpen, but you're saying they should spend the same amount of money without proposing solutions.[/quote']

 

Yes, because it's always more difficult signing a second-tier FA than trading for a guy with an 18.5 million salary and 10-5 rights while attempting to get money from his original team.

 

Sox sign Ordonez, sign Lee, trade Dice-k.

 

Seems infinitely easier than:

 

Sox trade for Beltran, trade Scutaro, trade Dice-K, non-tender Paps, sign three relievers.

[Palodios]

If you give up Dice-K to turn Beltran's 18 million salary into 12 million it's not the same as signing Ordonez for 12 million then trading Dice-K and getting 8 million of real salary relief.

 

Beltran and Lee simply don't make sense on a bunch of levels.

 

If I recall, my original argument was Lee+Beltran- Dice-k =win. You're going to have to trade Dice-k, because the other four guys are not getting traded. Whether that is going to the Mets, or someone else, that's not the main point, but do you really see the Mets turning the Sox down in a Beltran for 13 mill+ mid-level prospect deal? Beltran also has the luxury of being a 1 year deal, while Ordonez will be 2-3 years. I personally prefer Ordonez, but its simply the fact that you made a personal attack to my intelligence for NO f***ING REASON when you're suggesting a very similar situation.

[Dipre]

If I recall' date=' my original argument was Lee+Beltran- Dice-k =win. You're going to have to trade Dice-k, because the other four guys are not getting traded. Whether that is going to the Mets, or someone else, that's not the main point, but do you really see the Mets turning the Sox down in a Beltran for 13 mill+ mid-level prospect deal? Beltran also has the luxury of being a 1 year deal, while Ordonez will be 2-3 years. I personally prefer Ordonez, but its simply the fact that you made a personal attack to my intelligence for NO f***ING REASON when you're suggesting a very similar situation.[/quote']

 

Personal attack? Are you on that time of the month?

 

They're also very different situations, but we've already established that, if you don't want to acknowledge it, that's your problem.

[Spudboy]

Why not just re-sign Darnell McDonald?

 

He's not the big bat everyone would like, but he plays hard, and is versatile.

[Dipre]

The Mets want salary relief. Why should they eat salary to send Beltran to Boston and then take back one of those contracts?

 

Pretty much.

 

On a side note, i'd actually be O.K with a Kalish/Darnell platoon.

 

On another side note, if the Sox acquire Russell Martin, any OF bat + Lee acquisitions really become a pipe dream.

[Cocos Disciples]

I don't see Lee as a real possibility anyway. My ideal off-season has the Sox signing Downs, Guerrier, Martin and trading for Willingham.

 

How much do we think Willingham will take anyway?

[Dipre]

I don't see Lee as a real possibility anyway. My ideal off-season has the Sox signing Downs, Guerrier, Martin and trading for Willingham.

 

How much do we think Willingham will take anyway?

 

I don't like Downs due to his type A status, agree on Guerrier and Martin.

 

Apparently the Nats are asking for the world for Willingham, but he makes a ton of sense.

[Cocos Disciples]

I don't like Downs due to his type A status, agree on Guerrier and Martin.

 

Apparently the Nats are asking for the world for Willingham, but he makes a ton of sense.

Hmm true. What about Fuentes or Rhodes?

 

And I'm not terribly surprised about the asking price for Willingham. I didn't realize how good his numbers are until I looked today.

[Will617]

That becomes salary relief for the Beltran deal, reducing his salary. If you give up Dice-K to turn Beltran's 18 million salary into 12 million it's not the same as signing Ordonez for 12 million then trading Dice-K and getting 8 million of real salary relief.

What? If Ordonez and Beltran cost the same, moving Dice-K to the Mets means you save $20 mil over two years; acquiring Ordonez then trading Dice-K means you save $20 mil over two years, maybe minus a bit depending on the suitor.

 

Again you move a piece from the ML roster that would need replacing' date=' not to mention that i posted in another thread how Tito said that they don't view Lowrie as the starting SS, but rather Scutaro.[/quote']

Then that's a different issue, but I feel that Lowrie is the better player. There's a reason Scutaro is getting shopped, and not Lowrie. The Sox also said that they're comfortable with Salty and Varitek starting the season at catcher. Their pursuit of Russell Martin clearly indicates otherwise. Plus, utility infielders don't exactly cost a lot of money, and the starting infield are pretty durable (excepting Lowrie, who always seems to have some freak injury).

 

Beltran and Lee simply don't make sense on a bunch of levels.

 

I agree, but I'm just saying, if you're willing to acquire Ordonez and Lee, I'm not sure why you can't also acquire Beltran and Lee, especially if Matsuzaka gets moved in both cases.

[Will617]

Why not Bobby Jenks? He struck out 10 an inning last year, walked 3 an inning, had a GB rate close to 60% (all pretty close to his career numbers), and suffered from a .368 BABIP and 65% LOB average. And he doesn't cost a pick.

Sox are looking into retaining Okajima, presumably for less money. I don't think this would be a terrible move if they also acquire two quality arms, in addition to Okajima.

[Dojji]

I could get behind a Jenks pickup. He's not that old and there's reason enough to predict a bounceback.

[Cocos Disciples]

Not thrilled about Jenks' serious downward trend the last few years. I think there are better options.

[Dojji]

While true, you just can't go and buy all the best RP's. That's a horrible waste of money. You're going to need to bring in some guys who you project to improve on their current #'s to flesh out the pen. Jenks is a fair investment on that basis.

[BSN07]

I like the thought of trying to add Jenks. But someone is going to give him a closers job. AZ maybe?

[redsoxrules]

I like the thought of trying to add Jenks. But someone is going to give him a closers job. AZ maybe?

 

AZ just signed JJ putz

[Cocos Disciples]

While true' date=' you just can't go and buy all the best RP's. That's a horrible waste of money. You're going to need to bring in some guys who you project to improve on their current #'s to flesh out the pen. Jenks is a fair investment on that basis.[/quote']

I agree, we've seen that fail miserably multiple times in the past. I'm just not a big Jenks fan.

[redsoxrules]

Boras says Carlos Beltran plans to be a Met this season. Beltran has full no-trade rights

[Dojji]

All that means is "trade speculation is OK but I'd better be involved in the decision making process."

 

Have a hard time believing he'd refuse a trade to Boston and a better chance at the playoffs than he's had since 06

[Cocos Disciples]

You know what I realized? 2011 is the JD Drew farewell tour for his time with the Sox, in all likelihood. Will he be honored in every city? Plaques? Should he take a lap around the park after the game? Will Talksox suffer with no Drew arguments?

[SoxSport]

ESPN Boston is now saying what I suspected--The Yankees may attempt a sweep of Crawford and Lee.

 

The Red Sox should try to prevent NY from buying a championship again. The Sox are within budget to do so. The Yankees clearly have no budget.

 

How can they best beat the Yankees? Sign Lee, of course. Or see to it Lee goes somewhere else.

[BSN07]

AZ just signed JJ putz

 

Ah yes I see that now. Maybe TB? Someone is going to give him a chance to close.

[SoxSport]

Why not just re-sign Darnell McDonald?

 

He's not the big bat everyone would like, but he plays hard, and is versatile.

 

That rag-tag outfield the Sox had last year kept them in contention until Pedroia went down.

Maybe they should learn something from that, and not try to fix what isn't broke.

McDonald hits lefties well. Nava has a nice swing. Kalish could break out early. Give these guys a shot, save your bucks for LEE.

 

Lee is the one guy who could kill the Yankees next year--like he did last year. If the Yankees get him, they'll win the division. If the Red Sox get him, even Heyman will concede the Division to them. If he goes to Texas or LA, that's good, too.

 

Lee is the make or break guy in the AL East.

[SoxSport]

This is just the way I see things: we already have a pretty good lineup for infield and outfield, going after Cliff Lee we solve part of our problems with the bullpen, we cause a major problem for the Yankees and we even have the chance to trade Dasiuke Matsuzaka. It's almost a "win win" situation.

 

And, in fact, this is actually what I'm betting, as Crawford seems unrealistic and is probably the one and only player that would add something to our already well balanced lineup.

 

Well, I hope Theo sees this as well. Who knows. He grabbed Lackey out of nowhere last year. He values pitching. Maybe that 7 year mystery team for Lee is local.

 

They know by now who wants Dice-K and what they can get for him.

[Dipre]

What? If Ordonez and Beltran cost the same' date=' moving Dice-K to the Mets means you save $20 mil over two years; acquiring Ordonez then trading Dice-K means you save $20 mil over two years, maybe minus a bit depending on the suitor[/quote']

 

They don't cost the same.

 

Beltran has an 18.5 million price tag, which means that sending Dice-K over to them would be a contract swap, and with them trying to shed payroll, why would they send Beltran + money for Dice-K. It doesn't make sense. What would actually happen would be Beltran at 10.5 million without additional salary relief. And the added bonus of having to sign Lee having created a hole in the rotation.

 

If you sign Ordonez for 12 million, then trade Dice-K, by this scenario, you would directly gain back Dice-K's contract for relief.

 

The issue is also not about subsequent years, but a way to fit both an OF bat and Lee for next season without being hit with luxury tax.

 

 

 

I agree, but I'm just saying, if you're willing to acquire Ordonez and Lee, I'm not sure why you can't also acquire Beltran and Lee, especially if Matsuzaka gets moved in both cases.

 

Beltran (18.5 million) - Dice K (8 million) = 10.5 million.

 

Ordonez (12 million) - Dice-K (8 million)= 4 million.

[Dipre]

Jenks and Fuentes. /offseason.