The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[CalvnHobs6]

Pete Abraham did an awesome breakdown of the payroll for the next two years. From Extra Bases (http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/)

 

Now that Adrian Gonzalez is in the fold and almost certainly will agree to a seven-year, $154 million contract extension in the spring, how much money do the Red Sox have left to spend?

 

This is an inexact science and it's hard to go dollar for dollar. But you can come up with a pretty good estimate based on the 2010 payroll of $168 million.

 

In public comments, John Henry and Tom Werner have indicated the payroll would stay the same. So let's start with that assumption.

 

Now let's look at the money the Red Sox have coming off the books.

 

GONE FROM 2010

Mike Lowell: $12.5 million

Adrian Beltre: $10.0 million

Julio Lugo's dead money: $9.2 million

Victor Martinez: $7.7 million

Jeremy Hermida: $3.3 million

Hideki Okajima: $2.7 million

Ramon Ramirez: $1.1 million

Billy Wagner's dead money: $1 million

Assorted others (Delcarmen, Schoeneweis, Bonser, etc): $2 million

 

SALARY DECREASES FOR 2011

Tim Wakefield: $1.5 million less

Jason Varitek: $1 million less (could be $700,000 less if he hits incentives)

John Lackey: $2.75 million less based on his signing bonus in 2010

 

That comes out to $54.75 million being dropped off the payroll.

 

2011 PAYROLL ADDITIONS

Adrian Gonzalez: $6.2 million

Jarrod Saltalamacchia: $0.75 million

 

SALARY INCREASES FOR 2011

Josh Beckett: $3.75 million

Kevin Youkilis: $2.875 million

Daisuke Matsuzaka: $2 million

Jon Lester: $2 million

Dustin Pedroia: $2 million

 

EXPECTED RAISES

Jacoby Ellsbury: $2.5 million

Jonathan Papelbon: $2.5 million

 

(Ellsbury and Papelbon were tendered contracts last week and as such, will get raises either via negotiation or arbitration. These are assumptions on the high side)

 

That comes out $24.58 million.

 

To some degree, you can say the Sox have taken $54.75 million off the payroll and spent $24.58 million of it. Therefore they have $30.17 million to spend.

 

Go get Carl Crawford or Cliff Lee! But it's not that simple.

 

PAYROLL COMMITMENTS FOR 2012

Adrian Gonzalez: $22 million (estimated)

Josh Beckett: $15.75 million

John Lackey: $15.75 million

Kevin Youkilis: $12 million

Daisuke Matsuzaka: $10 million

Dustin Pedroia: $8 million

Jon Lester: $7.6 million

Marco Scutaro: $3 million (or $1 million buyout)

 

So based on only eight players, the Sox have already spent roughly $90 million for 2012. If you add Crawford or Lee, that figure balloons to at least $110 million and you're accounting for only nine of 25 players. That's not a good balance.

 

In theory, yes, the Red Sox have the money to go sign Crawford. But that commitment is going to be for at least seven or eight years. And chewing up $20 million of the $30 million left leaves little room for improving the bullpen and paying the guys who fill out the roster. It also leaves little wiggle room for in-season trades.

 

That $30 million could be better spent this way:

 

• $10-$12 million on a right-handed hitter (say Magglio Ordonez) on a short-term deal

• $10-$12 million on bullpen help

• $6-$10 million on roster filler, in-season maneuverability

 

How much pain did the bullpen cause the Red Sox last season? Think of that before demanding another big-ticket player.

 

Tempting as it may be to spent a good chunk of their remaining dough on a star, the Red Sox should bank on this: The loss of Beltre and Martinez to the offense will be balanced by the addition of Gonzalez and the return to health of Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youkilis. Throw in a guy like Odonez or Josh Willingham and the offense is fine.

 

The Sox will score. They still need a bullpen and not assorted vagabonds on make-good deals. They need Scott Downs, guys like that.

[Dipre]

Excellent analysis.

 

If you go out and spend 22 million on Lee, plus 10 million on Beltran, how do you fix the bullpen?

 

Get rid of Papelbon, then that's three bullpen arms you need instead of two.

 

It doesn't make sense either way.

[Palodios]

32 on Beltran and Lee

 

2 million extra spent, +12 for Papelbon +5 for Scutaro== 15 million to spend on 3 bullpen arms. Not easy, but even though they will push the LT a little bit, it won't put them into Yankee money. They can do this if they wanted to.

[a700hitter]

32 on Beltran and Lee

 

2 million extra spent, +12 for Papelbon +5 for Scutaro== 15 million to spend on 3 bullpen arms. Not easy, but even though they will push the LT a little bit, it won't put them into Yankee money. They can do this if they wanted to.

Sounds like a winner to me. With those move, the Sox not only close the gap on the Yankees, but IMO they would blow their doors off.

[Dipre]

32 on Beltran and Lee

 

2 million extra spent, +12 for Papelbon +5 for Scutaro== 15 million to spend on 3 bullpen arms. Not easy, but even though they will push the LT a little bit, it won't put them into Yankee money. They can do this if they wanted to.

 

That's not how it works.

 

They currently have 121 million tied up to payroll without arb contracts.

 

121 + 32 on Lee and Beltran= 153.

 

With Papelbon's 12, that becomes 165.

 

With Ellsbury's 3, that becomes 168.

 

168 million was the payroll last year and it's the area they want to stay at, so again, how do you fix the bullpen? Then you'd have to create other holes to open up payroll.

 

If they want to sign Lee at 22 per, they need to find a cheaper option than Beltran, whose cost is actually 18.5 per, but i'm assuming they trade Dice-K for him, which creates another set of problems.

 

Lee + Ordonez sounds much easier to pull off.

[Palodios]

That's not how it works.

 

They currently have 121 million tied up to payroll without arb contracts.

 

121 + 32 on Lee and Beltran= 153.

 

With Papelbon's 12, that becomes 165.

 

With Ellsbury's 3, that becomes 168.

 

168 million was the payroll last year and it's the area they want to stay at, so again, how do you fix the bullpen? Then you'd have to create other holes to open up payroll.

 

read my post again. Trade Scutaro + Papelbon to save 17 for the bullpen.

[WhiskeyBreath]

Just don't see them trading Papelbon while his value is at it's lowest.

[Dipre]

Except for the fact that that's unrealistic.

 

Move Papelbon, create the need for another BP arm, so the 15 million you needed increases. Trade Scutaro, need to replace him, increasing the cost. Besides, who'd wanna pony up 12 million for Papelbon? And even if they did, would they really trade him for nothing.

 

Let's stay realistic here.

[SoxSport]

$10-12 is plausible for Beltran. Tough to figure Lee. They are going to spend on the bullpen, particularly LHP. Tito just said that on MLB.com.

 

Gammons on now. Says Lee probably won't get done in Orlando. He sees 6 years. Yankees, like the rest of the media. That means he stays in Texas, since the media is almost always wrong. What's one year? Texas should match NY if they want to stay playoff quality. My guess is they match 6 years, but the Yankees offer 7, or 8... whatever it takes. They're dead without Lee, if Pettite retires. Andy is fading anyways, even in Yankee stadium.

[Palodios]

Except for the fact that that's unrealistic.

 

Move Papelbon, create the need for another BP arm, so the 15 million you needed increases. Trade Scutaro, need to replace him, increasing the cost. Besides, who'd wanna pony up 12 million for Papelbon? And even if they did, would they really trade him for nothing.

 

Let's stay realistic here.

 

Non-tender pap. With that rotation, Atchison, Bard, Doubront + 2 good relievers will be fine.

[Dipre]

Non-tender pap. With that rotation' date=' Atchison, Bard, Doubront + 2 good relievers will be fine.[/quote']

 

Then who closes, and at what price?

 

Not to mention, the bullpen has to have at least 6 members, so it would be Atchison, Bard, Doubront + 3 relievers.

[Palodios]

Bard closes. Wakefield is already under contract, plus Bowden. 15 mill for two solid guys, is that so difficult?

[Dipre]

Ok, you wait for all that then.

 

They won't non-tender Papelbon, Bowden is not a sure thing, Wakefield? uh-oh.

[Palodios]

Get Lee/Beltran. Non-tender Pap. get two relievers. How is that complicated?

[Dipre]

It's complicated because this is not MLB The Show 2010.

 

1) It's not a sure thing they'll be able to sign Lee, specially with the Yankees bidding for him.

 

2) It's not a sure thing the Mets will trade Beltran to the Sox.

 

3) They won't create holes they'll have to re-plug just because they want to go after two players they may or may not acquire. That's simply not how negotiations go, and it would be very difficult.

 

Your stance here basically is:

 

"Well let me dismantle part of my roster to see if i maybe get Lee/Beltran and then i can worry about plugging the holes i had no need to create".

[WhiskeyBreath]

Counting on Wake or Bowden in the pen this year would be a mistake.

[Palodios]

Its a perfect storm idea. It isn't impossible, but it isn't probable either. It is the absolutely best roster they could put together, no question, and they still get 6 first round picks.

[CalvnHobs6]

Counting on Wake or Bowden in the pen this year would be a mistake.

 

Absolutely right. Wake's value comes from his longevity, flexibility, consistent inconsistencies, etc. He's not a shut-down reliever, or even a middle reliever. If you put him in the game, maybe he'll strike out the side, maybe he'll give up a couple of bombs. And while I suppose that can go for any pitcher, it seems like Wake is far more volatile in that way. Wakefield's role is spot starter and mop-up duty. I know it's probably not his preference, but that's how it has to be.

[redsoxrules]

I wonder who has the 7 year offer for Lee , I bet its a phantom offer, trying to hike up the price from everyone else

[SoxSport]

Rosenthal on right now. Says 6 or 7 years not a big deal for Lee. Especially NY. I think NY will go 10 years to get Lee. Says he's been told there is a 7 year offer for Lee. I think NY holding back, waiting to top everybody at the right time, + 1 year. Says lots of RP activity from many teams. Sox may have to overpay to get a decent one. Should have tendered Oki? Looked good in Aug-Sept after poor start.

 

Gammons on. Mets will deal Beltran. Need to move $10 mil. Sox interested. Will take some of the money.

maybe January. Think he said Beltre said no to Sox. Didn't catch it all. No market except for Angels right now.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lee has the Yankees over a barrel. And even though Cashman is trying to play it cool since we already have one ace, we kinda need more than one in this division. If we lose out on Lee, then a trade prior to the deadline is okay as I think the team as constituted is still one of the best in the AL, but in order to survive in the postseason, we'll need more pitching

[a700hitter]

THE CARL CRAWFORD SWEEPSTAKES

 

There has been some suggestion that the seven-year, $126 million deal that Jayson Werth signed with the Nationals could take the Sox out of the market for Crawford. And if both Crawford and the industry ends up using Werth’s deal as a baseline to affix a value to Crawford, perhaps resulting in something along the lines of an eight-year, $160 million deal, then it seems likely that the Sox would pass on the dynamic left fielder.

 

But, according to multiple sources, it is premature to say there is no chance that the Sox sign Crawford. They have no doubt determined what they consider a fair value for the outfielder. If he is open to taking a deal on those terms, they could land him. But, as the Sox have demonstrated already this offseason with Victor Martinez, they are willing to affix a value to a player’s services — even one who they really like — and walk away if he wants (and gets) more from elsewhere.

 

“Do you have the guts to walk away and get criticized for it, knowing it’s the right thing?” Epstein said in talking about contracts. “Some organizations do, some don’t.”

 

The Sox have suggested they are looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder, but it is hard to see the Sox walking away from Crawford simply because he is left-handed. Indeed, Epstein disputed the notion that a team can be too left-handed on Monday night. So, the Sox will no doubt continue to explore the former Rays star, but whether there is a financial fit remains to be seen, with several teams (notably including the Angels, and potentially the Yankees and Rangers) still interested in the top position player on the market.

 

In addition to the Werth deal, the market for Crawford, one source noted, is also complicated by the fact that it likely hinges on what happens with starter Cliff Lee. Teams that are in the mix for Lee could turn their attentions to Crawford if they lose out on the left-hander. So the Crawford situation could take time to resolve.

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2010/12/07/a-look-at-the-red-sox-interest-in-outfielders-carl-crawford-matt-diaz-josh-willingham/

 

 

Carl Crawford Rumors: Tuesday

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [December 7 at 3:34pm CST]

 

We heard yesterday that the Angels and Tigers are still in on Carl Crawford. GM Tony Reagins said the Jayson Werth deal doesn't affect the way the Angels approach the rest of their offseason, but it wouldn't be surprising if Crawford's camp has nudged its asking price up a little since Sunday. Here's the latest on Crawford, with more updates to follow throughout the day:

 

* Sources tell Alex Speier of WEEI.com that it's premature to rule the Red Sox out of the Crawford sweepstakes, which could take some time to develop.

* Not surprisingly, the Angels haven't ruled out a high-profile addition, manager Mike Scioscia tells Yahoo's Steve Henson (Twitter link).

[Will617]

If Crawford signs with the Tigers, we lose our picks, right?

Would've rather had Lee than Lackey, but too late to complain about that now.

[BSN07]

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2010/12/07/a-look-at-the-red-sox-interest-in-outfielders-carl-crawford-matt-diaz-josh-willingham/

 

Contrary to popular belief, Theo does indeed have a set of balls And again shows that Cashman's first name should be Brianna.

[BSN07]

If Crawford signs with the Tigers, we lose our picks, right?

Would've rather had Lee than Lackey, but too late to complain about that now.

 

Yes, they would lose the 1st rounder for V-Mart.

[GWSoxFan]

Yes' date=' they would lose the 1st rounder for V-Mart.[/quote']

 

No they would not. V-Mart was ranked higher than Crawford. If the Tigers had signed Werth, we would have lost their 1st rounder. The only way we lose their 1st rounder is if they sign Cliff Lee or Rafael Soriano (I think. I can't remember if he was offerd arb).

 

Elias Free Agent Rankings:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/10/official-elias-rankings.html

[BSN07]

No they would not. V-Mart was ranked higher than Crawford.

 

Elias Free Agent Rankings:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/10/official-elias-rankings.html

 

I stand corrected

[GWSoxFan]

I stand corrected

 

Can't say I blame you. I would have assumed Crawford would be ranked higher than VMart if I hadn't seen the list.

[Palodios]

What are the odds the Sox go for Crawford and then trade Ellsbury for a RH bat?

[GWSoxFan]

What are the odds the Sox go for Crawford and then trade Ellsbury for a RH bat?

 

I thought I saw a comment recently by Terry Francona saying that Ellsbury was still feeling pain in his ribs. If this is the case, I'd say high (assuming they can find a trade partner).