The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[Dojji]

Is there really a questiin here ir just snark? One of the things I like about Theo is that he does stand up and take accountability. Since you are weighing in against me on this issue' date=' but you have not asked me a serious question, I have a serious question for you. Theo is no longer the new kid on the block. He has an extensive body of work that we can judge. [b']My question to you is how do you assess his track record in building a bullpen without all the qualifiers about bullpens being inconsistent etc. [/b] All GMs are faced with the same frustrations about relievers. How does his performance rate against his peers.

 

The fact is that you have to assess his bullpen WITH that caveat, because it exists as a real fact. Bullpens are the last fronteir for most GM's, it's really difficult to build one that's consistent from year to year because a handful of bad games can inflate a reliever's numbers for entire seasons.

 

That's why the question you ask is a lot harder than you're pretending it is. Because all bullpens are inconsistent to a greater or lesser degree, and even when you get the chemistry right one year there's no guarantee that exactly the same mix of guys will get the job done next season.

 

Realistically all you can do is go for the best talent you can without giving up major assets for relief pitchers (which is stupid) and that's what Theo did, and then when it doesn't work, ask what happened and whether anything could have been done to prevent it.

 

What happened was that 3 different relievers we had no reason not to depend on going into the season completely regressed and became worthless. That is *not* something Theo could have planned for, and having the depth to absorb 3 tank jobs like that isn't something any bullpen's likely to have. You might have gotten some mileage out of replacing one of them with a quality setup man, but playing catch up with 2 very good teams and already 5-6 games back, Theo made the judgment call that it wasn't going to be enough and the team didn't spend the assets it would need to try to force itself into contention, waiting instead for the blank slate that is the offseason.

 

THAT is the decision you refuse to understand -- because you have no stomach for a bad season. THAT is what you want to blame Theo for. For making the decision to save his ammunition. The rest is just you trying to dignify your position by blaming him for the lesser things that led up to his decision.

 

Combine the issue with the Pen with the unlikely injuries to Pedroia and Ellsbury which probably will not repeat next year, automatically making both our pitching and our offense better next year, and the mess at catcher, and I think it was the right call. The fact that we lost Youkilis almost immediately after he made the decision not to trade for Downs kinda ratifies it. It just wasn't going to work out this year, end of thought.

[a700hitter]

Weaksauce. That's not a snarky question. You pontificate (your words "Ballpark Pontiff") about all the mistakes being made' date=' so it's a legitimate question to ask for your methods of avoiding a bad bullpen. Don't cop out with a bologna accusation. Let's hear it.[/quote']

 

Here was the question:

 

What would you propose to be sure that the team will never have a bad bullpen again?

 

It is the highlighted portion of the question, that made me think it is snark. I am on record about some of the things I would do for 2011, and my opinion about 2010 have also been stated before.

[a700hitter]

The fact is that you have to assess his bullpen WITH that caveat, because it exists as a real fact. Bullpens are the last fronteir for most GM's, it's really difficult to build one that's consistent from year to year because a handful of bad games can inflate a reliever's numbers for entire seasons.

 

That's why the question you ask is a lot harder than you're pretending it is. Because all bullpens are inconsistent to a greater or lesser degree, and even when you get the chemistry right one year there's no guarantee that exactly the same mix of guys will get the job done next season.

 

Realistically all you can do is go for the best talent you can without giving up major assets for relief pitchers (which is stupid) and that's what Theo did, and then when it doesn't work, ask what happened and whether anything could have been done to prevent it.

 

What happened was that 3 different relievers we had no reason not to depend on going into the season completely regressed and became worthless. That is *not* something Theo could have planned for, and having the depth to absorb 3 tank jobs like that isn't something any bullpen's likely to have. You might have gotten some mileage out of replacing one of them with a quality setup man, but playing catch up with 2 very good teams and already 5-6 games back, Theo made the judgment call that it wasn't going to be enough and the team didn't spend the assets it would need to try to force itself into contention, waiting instead for the blank slate that is the offseason.

 

THAT is the decision you refuse to understand -- because you have no stomach for a bad season. THAT is what you want to blame Theo for. For making the decision to save his ammunition. The rest is just you trying to dignify your position by blaming him for the lesser things that led up to his decision.

 

Combine the issue with the Pen with the unlikely injuries to Pedroia and Ellsbury which probably will not repeat next year, automatically making both our pitching and our offense better next year, and the mess at catcher, and I think it was the right call. The fact that we lost Youkilis almost immediately after he made the decision not to trade for Downs kinda ratifies it. It just wasn't going to work out this year, end of thought.

All GMs are faced with these issues. If Theo has been presented with an uneven playing field, it is certainly one that is tilted in his favor. He is working for one of the premier franchises in all of sports. The fact that he has more advantages than most GMs should also be taken into account when evaluating his performance.

[Palodios]

a700, the simple fact is if you went into the season with a bullpen of Rivera, Soria, Broxton, Papelbon, Feliz, and they all died in a plane crash, you'd come here and vent when the FO called the season a lost cause. I'm starting to accept that realization that you simply want this team to be the best it possibly can, but others have not. Yes, the FO could have done more, but no one knows if they should have.

[BSN07]

More psycho analyzing? I may be wrong' date=' but I don't think I have thrown around the word blame very much. There needs to be accountability whether or not there are explanations. What I read on this forum, is that we didn't make the playoffs because of injuries. That is how people are summing up the season. [b']When I point out that our bullpen sucked as well as our defense (at the pitcher position in particular) and those issues are not related to injury[/b], I am told that the bullpen failure was completely unforeseeable and the pitchers' fielding was Farrell's fault and we are well rid of him. When I go on to point out that the lousy bullpen was evident very early on when there was plenty of time to make adjustments, I am denigrated by being told that it was no great prediction on my part, but that it was basically too late to do anything in April to improve the pen without sacrificing the future. I point out that the Twins lost there All Star closer and they did a very nice job of building a solid pen, I am told that the Twins paid too much. It seems like there is one rationalization after another. When I have refuted all of your excuses, you guys see fit to characterize me as some meanie or hater. How juvenile. If you all weren't so intent on proving me wrong and just looked at the facts, you might realize that there were a lot of organizational failure last season, and that's why we didn't make the playoffs. For all the praise Tito got (and I love the guy) he bears some blame, because his coaches did a s***** job right down the line. They let the fundamentals in the field and on the bases go to hell. And yes the FO is accountable too. Injuries were a major factor in the teams' performance, but they did a poor job with building a bullpen and with shoring up an OF that needed shoring up in the first week of April when Cameron's abdomen tore open. They dropped the ball in certain aspects. That's all I am saying. Somehow, the "prove a700 wrong crowd" has turned that into me completely blaming the FO. That's just not true. The fact is that the injuries were not the only negative in our season. That's what I am saying. If you people don't agree with my view on this, that doesn't justify personal attacks and negative characterizations. That's really low rent stuff.

 

 

If any of you have the stomach for it, maybe you should be assessing Theo's track record for building bullpens. I don't think it is that great but what do I know-- pointing out the facts regarding his record just makes me a hater ... Right?

 

Finally BSN07, with regard to your crack about living behind enemy lines, how many Yankee fans do you have to endure during your daily life? I deal with them everyday, and the whining about injuries and bad luck is met with disdain. I don't even try it down here, and in those rare cases where a Yankee fan offers it to me as an excuse, I just say that injuries are part of the game and not an excuse. I will not whine to them.

 

I wrote a two line joke and got a half page response, you tell me if I struck a nerve.

 

Yes these are valid points, but even with a horrendous BP the Red Sox where still in contention for a playoff spot until the last week of the season. I think it is fair to estimate that if the Red Sox had been healthy they still had a good shot at making the playoffs even with the BP's shortcomings. But having both was too much to overcome IMO.

 

And what moves could have been made early on in the season? Exactly what difference making BP arm was available in April or May?

 

The Twins dropped their best prospect into the Nats lap because he as blocked by the newly extended Joe Mauer. Are you suggesting the Sox should have given up Kelly or Kalish for a set up man? Fact of the matter is that it was going to cost too much talent for a one year BP arm that may or may not have salvaged the Sox playoff chances. And as it was pointed out earlier if the Sox had gone out and added Wood or another BP arm it would have been for not since the injury bug rapped the Sox right up to the end of the season. So we would have over paid for a BP arm and still not gotten to the Playoffs. Pretty much a dick in hand type moment.

 

I could go on answering more of your post(I did go through and read it all) but what it boils down to in the end is my "behind enemy lines" comment. This was not meant to be mean or a slap in the face. It's just you seem to want the team run like the Yankees. You want "guarantee's" at every position. if you haven't heard of them you want them replaced by a "name" you recognize. If any player doesn't work out you need some kind of "George Steinbrenner(sp?) esqe" rant and chest pounding follwed by a good firing, so that you feel appeased that someone has taken the fall for an off year. Your a win now and at all cost, I don't have time to wait around for these guys to develop type. Which is fine. Just don't get upset when the some of us don't have this outlook. Your the "day trader" type fan. Move hard, move fast, move now and often. Some of us are more of the "5 year plan/cycles" type. And we are happy with 4 good years and one stinker. In our view that is good enough and better then alot of other fans have it. And it not worth risking those other 4 years to try and salvage that one year that everything is s***.

 

I've got nothing against you a700. Just after talking and discussing various topics with you, this is how I perceive you to be.

[a700hitter]

a700' date=' the simple fact is if you went into the season with a bullpen of Rivera, Soria, Broxton, Papelbon, Feliz, and they all died in a plane crash, you'd come here and vent when the FO called the season a lost cause. I'm starting to accept that realization that you simply want this team to be the best it possibly can, but others have not. Yes, the FO [i']could[/i] have done more, but no one knows if they should have.

I would have considered a plane crash to be an act of god, unless someone from the FO was piloting the plane and pilot error was involved. Whether the FO should have done more is a legitimate topic for discussion. That is a completely different discussion than whether it "could have" done things to improve the pen. The answer to that question is clearly yes. The Twins did it.

 

Certainly the case for doing nothing was stronger at the trading deadline than in April. IMO, the bullpen was in bad shape when it left ST, and management knew it. I think they believed that a lot of the deficiencies would not be exposed because they expected more quality starts from the rotation. When the rotation started slowly, all of the warts of the bullpen were there for every one to see. I thought the problem should have been addressed early. Others disagree. The decision not to act contributed to the poor finish of the team. I think I am just stating fact in that regard,

[BSN07]

I would have considered a plane crash to be an act of god, unless someone from the FO was piloting the plane and pilot error was involved. Whether the FO should have done more is a legitimate topic for discussion. That is a completely different discussion than whether it "could have" done things to improve the pen. The answer to that question is clearly yes. The Twins did it.

 

Certainly the case for doing nothing was stronger at the trading deadline than in April. IMO, the bullpen was in bad shape when it left ST, and management knew it. I think they believed that a lot of the deficiencies would not be exposed because they expected more quality starts from the rotation. When the rotation started slowly, all of the warts of the bullpen were there for every one to see. I thought the problem should have been addressed early. Others disagree. The decision not to act contributed to the poor finish of the team. I think I am just stating fact in that regard,

 

Capps was non tendered by the Pirates. Would you have really wanted the Red Sox to give up their top prospect for a guy who was non tendered the previous winter? I'm sorry. You don't give up your top prospect for a BP arm. Unless he is a clone of Mo of course.

[Palodios]

In all fairness, this is the pirates you're talking about. They would non-tender a clone of Mo haha.

[Dojji]

It's not a question of whether it should have been addressed early. Rather whether it could have been. Even cellar dweller teams don't like to deal their quality veteran players, the "proven" guys you insist on, much before the deadline because they help them fill the stadium for a few months until the fans realize it's just another of those years and that's a lot of money on the table for cash-strapped franchises. We would have had to overpay to get a reliever from most of the guys who had one to spare before June, and by then it's already too late.

 

I do think your analysis is spot on, that they thought the starters would cover for the bullpen better, but I want to add that, again, no one had any reason to believe going into the season that Oki, MDC and RR would fall off the face of the earth the way they did. Even the first couple months of bad play might have simply been a couple months of bad play, MDC had been fluctuating between dominant and awful for his entire Red Sox tenure, just as an example, no reason to believe that tight mightn't turn in our favor with a bit of patience, even if it didn't turn out that way..

[a700hitter]

I could go on answering more of your post(I did go through and read it all) but what it boils down to in the end is my "behind enemy lines" comment. This was not meant to be mean or a slap in the face. It's just you seem to want the team run like the Yankees. You want "guarantee's" at every position. if you haven't heard of them you want them replaced by a "name" you recognize. If any player doesn't work out you need some kind of "George Steinbrenner(sp?) esqe" rant and chest pounding follwed by a good firing, so that you feel appeased that someone has taken the fall for an off year. Your a win now and at all cost, I don't have time to wait around for these guys to develop type. Which is fine. Just don't get upset when the some of us don't have this outlook. Your the "day trader" type fan. Move hard, move fast, move now and often. Some of us are more of the "5 year plan/cycles" type. And we are happy with 4 good years and one stinker. In our view that is good enough and better then alot of other fans have it. And it not worth risking those other 4 years to try and salvage that one year that everything is s***.

 

I've got nothing against you a700. Just after talking and discussing various topics with you, this is how I perceive you to be.

I'd prefer that you just discuss the issues of sports and not your perceptions of me. I don't come on here saying that I picture you playing baseball in wooden shoes after visiting a hash bar. Let's leave those personal perceptions out of it.

 

The only part of my post directed at you was the "behind enemy lines" paragraph. The Red Sox are not a small market team. They are one of the elite franchises in all sports. They have plenty of revenue and they spend a lot of it. The problem is not how much they spend, but how they spend it. If teams like the Twins and the Rangers (which combined don't have the value of the Sox) have enough flexibility to fine tune their bullpens and rosters during the season, but the Sox don't, that doesn't add up for me. I don't expect the team to win every season, but when they don't win, I am not satisfied with the sole excuse being injuries. That just shows a lack of analysis. As someone who has been an ardent Sox fan for 45 years, I just can't latch onto that convenient excuse, and I am surprised that so many otherwise knowledgeable fans here take that view. It is something I would expect from the Pink Hat crew.

 

BTW: I have never advocated that anyone be fired, not once... since Grady Little, but he had to go. I would have demoted Bogar to 1B during the season, but Ididn't advocate firing him.

[a700hitter]

I do think your analysis is spot on' date=' that they thought the starters would cover for the bullpen better, but I want to add that, again, no one had any reason to believe going into the season that Oki, MDC and RR would fall off the face of the earth the way they did. Even the first couple months of bad play might have simply been a couple months of bad play, MDC had been fluctuating between dominant and awful for his entire Red Sox tenure, just as an example, no reason to believe that tight mightn't turn in our favor with a bit of patience, even if it didn't turn out that way..[/quote']I go to Ft. Myers every spring, and there was a lot of concern about MDC and RR throughout ST. Some of it hit the press. As for Oki, they were worried that the league had figured him out. That was no secret either. I said these things on this forum way back in the spring.

[a700hitter]

Capps was non tendered by the Pirates. Would you have really wanted the Red Sox to give up their top prospect for a guy who was non tendered the previous winter? I'm sorry. You don't give up your top prospect for a BP arm. Unless he is a clone of Mo of course.

That point can be debated. We'll have to see how that prospect pans out for the Nats before it can be fairly judged. The Twins did improve their team with the move and they did it by moving a guy who is blocked at the ML level by Mauer. He had nowhere to go with the Twins. Maybe they could have gotten more for him. I don't know, but he had no future with the Twins.

[Dojji]

But there were reasons to count on any one of the three of them to pull through some issues and continue to be effective as well, and none of them did.

[Palodios]

Its funny, but we all seem to be forgetting that Bard had not logged all that many major league innings, and he too was a wild card. 100 mph or not, rookies always carry risks.

[Palodios]

Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein said Tuesday that he would be comfortable with Jarrod Saltalamacchia as the team's primary catcher next season.

"We'll probably have a more experienced guy than him on the roster as well, but I think we're comfortable with him in a role anywhere from backup to job share to everyday guy, depending on how the rest of the club shapes up," said Epstein. Saltalamacchia's role next season won't have much clarity until Victor Martinez makes a decision in free agency. The Red Sox were interested in John Buck, but they were not willing to go beyond what the Marlins have reportedly offered. That's probably a good thing.

 

s***.

[a700hitter]

s***.

You disagree with Theo on this? So do I, but I am hoping that it is just negotiation posturing. Last year Tito said that he would be comfortable with Kotchman playing 1B everyday, and then he was traded.

[example1]

Is there really a question here or just snark? One of the things I like about Theo is that he does stand up and take accountability. Since you are weighing in against me on this issue' date=' but you have not asked me a serious question, I have a serious question for you. Theo is no longer the new kid on the block. He has an extensive body of work that we can judge. My question to you is how do you assess his track record in building a bullpen without all the qualifiers about bullpens being inconsistent etc. All GMs are faced with the same frustrations about relievers. How does his performance rate against his peers.[/quote']

 

My question wasn't snark; you should answer it if you can.

 

My assessment is that the bullpen has been hit or miss, like it is for most teams.

[a700hitter]

My question wasn't snark; you should answer it if you can.

 

My assessment is that the bullpen has been hit or miss, like it is for most teams.

Why don't I just tell you my thoughts on how to construct a team that never loses. It can't be done, just like there is no formula to guarantee a good bullpen. Just because there are no guarantees for continual success in any aspect of life doesn't mean that performance can't be evaluated. While no GMs' record is spotless with regard to bullpens, Theo has had a spottier record than many other GMs, IMO.

[Palodios]

I'm far more apt to blame bad bullpens on the last four years of Farrell as pitching coach, because its not like the talent hasn't been there.

[Dojji]

It can't be done' date=' [/quote']

 

Then what is up with the last 3 pages of you throwing a tantrum on Theo for failing to do something that you admit can't be done? Is there any concievable way that makes sense?

[Dojji]

s***.

 

This is nothing more or less than a shot across V-Mart's bows.

 

This is about what he's prepared to do if he has to, not some kind of preference to Salty over other options. All they're doing here is trying to gain some leverage in negotiations by trotting out the alternate.

[Palodios]

He said he'd be comfortable. Not that he'll be tolerable, or a worst case scenario. Clearly VMart knows that he has everything on Salty... and unfortunately that even includes defense. I'm just worried this is a PR move for when VMart goes to the Rangers.

[a700hitter]

Then what is up with the last 3 pages of you throwing a tantrum on Theo for failing to do something that you admit can't be done? Is there any concievable way that makes sense?

Everyone fails occasionally. That doesn't mean the failure is just the whim of fate. There is still accountability for the failure. What don't you get about that? Just because no one can succeed 100% of the time doesn't equate with lack of responsibility for failure when it occurs. Did you get 100's on all of your tests in your life. When you did get less than 100%, the explanation wasn't bad luck.

[a700hitter]

He said he'd be comfortable. Not that he'll be tolerable' date=' or a worst case scenario. Clearly VMart knows that he has everything on Salty... and unfortunately that even includes defense. I'm just worried this is a PR move for when VMart goes to the Rangers.[/quote']I wouldn't read much into it. They don't want to tip their hand in the press, so they will say stuff like this from time to time.

[BSN07]

He said he'd be comfortable. Not that he'll be tolerable' date=' or a worst case scenario. Clearly VMart knows that he has everything on Salty... and unfortunately that even includes defense. I'm just worried this is a PR move for when VMart goes to the Rangers.[/quote']

 

V-Mart to the Rangers looks like a very good match with all things considered. Especially if they lose out on Lee.

[BSN07]

I wouldn't read much into it. They don't want to tip their hand in the press' date=' so they will say stuff like this from time to time.[/quote']

 

It sounds like pretty standard stuff. Like you said nothing to get to wound up about.

[a700hitter]

V-Mart to the Rangers looks like a very good match with all things considered. Especially if they lose out on Lee.

Catching everyday in Texas after June is really grueling. Not everyone is an iron man like Pudge. Catching in Texas has to take a huge physical toll.

[BSN07]

Catching everyday in Texas after June is really grueling. Not everyone is an iron man like Pudge. Catching in Texas has to take a huge physical toll.

 

That's the Rangers problem/risk. I'm saying they have a need and the money to do it. He would be a very nice piece to add to their offense.

[BSN07]

Loria says to "stay tuned" for further activity, specifically involving the bullpen. One source tells Rosenthal the Marlins have only about $3-4MM left to spend. If the team is to make additional splashes, it'll have to be in the trade market. I wouldn't be surprised to see Leo Nunez dealt, and the team could use a starting pitcher as well.

 

The Sox could really use Cruz. This is something I hope they are working on.

[BSN07]

Today, Nightengale says the Yankees' offer for Upton has fallen short but the Red Sox remain engaged. Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers described the Upton trade talks as "people kicking the tires right now."