The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[Mass Pike]

I honestly don't forsee the Diamondbacks being in a position where they NEED to trade Upton.

 

His contract is fairly reasonable and has five years left on it, he's arguably their best player and still has a ton of upside, I think its fair to say that he's not even come close to scratching the surface on how good he can be.

 

Kevin Towers will listen to offers, but I'm not at ALL surprised his asking price is as steep as it is.

 

That being said, I'd be ESTATIC if Boston is able to swing a deal for him and I may be one of a few, but I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox give up Kelly, Bard, Kalish, Bowden and a few other prospects to get him.

 

Let's be honest here.. Upton's 23.. The majority of the players they would be trading off in this scenario are 21 and older. I'd take established, young Major Leaguer with huge upside and a reasonable contract over prospects any day of the week.

[Palodios]

Ellsbury is not elite' date=' sorry. I think the second deal you said is more to their liking anyway.[/quote']

 

He is an elite basestealer.

 

I'm sorry, but trading two or three mlb players or four top prospects for him is insane when he's not much savings over crawford.

[Mass Pike]

He is an elite basestealer.

 

I'm sorry, but trading two or three mlb players or four top prospects for him is insane when he's not much savings over crawford.

 

Crawford's reportedly going to ask for over $100 million and looking for $16-$17 mill per season.

 

Upton would save them about 6 or 7 million dollars yearly and he's 6 years younger.

 

Plus, Crawford defensively is limited to LF. Upton's a RF who can play CF.

[BSN07]

I honestly don't forsee the Diamondbacks being in a position where they NEED to trade Upton.

 

His contract is fairly reasonable and has five years left on it, he's arguably their best player and still has a ton of upside, I think its fair to say that he's not even come close to scratching the surface on how good he can be.

 

Kevin Towers will listen to offers, but I'm not at ALL surprised his asking price is as steep as it is.

 

That being said, I'd be ESTATIC if Boston is able to swing a deal for him and I may be one of a few, but I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox give up Kelly, Bard, Kalish, Bowden and a few other prospects to get him.

 

Let's be honest here.. Upton's 23.. The majority of the players they would be trading off in this scenario are 21 and older. I'd take established, young Major Leaguer with huge upside and a reasonable contract over prospects any day of the week.

 

Upton is affordable for the next 2 seasons. After that he jumps up the the 15M a year area for the remainder of his deal.

[example1]

He is an elite basestealer.

 

I'm sorry, but trading two or three mlb players or four top prospects for him is insane when he's not much savings over crawford.

 

Most people are approaching a potential Upton trade from the perspective of what it would take to land a near-HOF caliber OF before his prime has started. I don't know enough about Upton to know if he is that, but from all I've seen he's as close as almost any player in baseball.

 

It comes down to how highly the Sox evaluate his abilities, nothing more. If they think he's on par with a 22 year old Ken Griffey Jr., or Willie Mays what would you be willing to pay then?

 

The question is whether he's the next one of those guys (possible) or whether he's a glorified Carl Crawford, Torii Hunter or BJ Upton (more possible). If he's the later (again, not my call to make) he's not worth the packages of prospects we're talking about. If he's the next yearly MVP candidate and a possible HOF then this team would be foolish not to open the vault for him. They will be able to build around him sufficiently even if they lose Bard etc., over the next 4-5 years.

 

I'm glad it isn't my call.

[Meh]

He is an elite basestealer.

 

I'm sorry, but trading two or three mlb players or four top prospects for him is insane when he's not much savings over crawford.

 

oh alright yeah he's an elite basestealer.

 

I agree on the second half, thats why I kind of hope the Yankees don't trade him unless Towers got a huge boner for Joba while he was with us. Two young SP and a centerfielder along with a 4th and maybe even a 5th piece seems like a lot to me.

[Palodios]

Crawford's reportedly going to ask for over $100 million and looking for $16-$17 mill per season.

 

Upton would save them about 6 or 7 million dollars yearly and he's 6 years younger.

 

Except that you're trading cost-controlled guys to get him. Its going to cost 8 million per year to replace the production of Bard for the next five years, you do realize that, right?

 

Most people are approaching a potential Upton trade from the perspective of what it would take to land a near-HOF caliber OF before his prime has started. I don't know enough about Upton to know if he is that' date=' but from all I've seen he's as close as almost any player in baseball.[/quote']

 

You just don't make a risk like that on "skills" and a hunch. Considering what he's going to cost money-wise, and considering the absolutely ridiculous trade possibilities we've been hearing, there is no reason to risk your entire franchise on one player who has hit .824 over a reasonably large sample size.

 

It also means the Sox will probably skip the big OF bats, meaning we'll probably be stuck with Cameron in LF.

[example1]

It also means the Sox will probably skip the big OF bats, meaning we'll probably be stuck with Cameron in LF.

 

I don't see why this would be the case. If they move Ellsbury in the deal then I still see a way for them to go after Werth or Crawford. Or they can use resources to get Beltre or Martinez. I see this as supplementing their previous off season plans, not replacing them.

 

BTW, do you give no weight to his age at all? I mean all the "only .800+ OPS" stuff has to be taken with a realization that he's doing this before most players are at AAA.

[Palodios]

I don't see why this would be the case. If they move Ellsbury in the deal, or Kalish, then I still see a way for them to go after Werth or Crawford. Or they can use resources to get Beltre or Martinez. I see this as supplementing their previous off season plans, not replacing them.

 

BTW, do you give no weight to his age at all? I mean all the "only .800+ OPS" stuff has to be taken with a realization that he's doing this before most players are at AAA.

 

If they're devoting large money to Upton, I don't think they'd want to put more money into the OF, especially with big holes in 3B, C, and the bullpen already, plus whatever holes the trade would open up.

 

And as far as his age-- I understand how young he is. But I see no reason to pay for him like a HOF until he actually is playing like one.

[Meh]

Except that you're trading cost-controlled guys to get him. Its going to cost 8 million per year to replace the production of Bard for the next five years' date=' you do realize that, right?[/quote']

 

I didn't say that...

[example1]

You want me to come up with a formula to cure all Red Sox bullpen ills for all times' date=' but you can't even take a position on a proposed trade. If Theo thinks Upton is the next B.J. Upton but he turns out to be the next Junior Griffey, Should he be held accountable for not making the trade?[/quote']

 

It's funny how you leap all over me because you can't articulate your own argument well enough to convince multiple people of your point of view. In that multi-day argument you had with the rest of the board I posted a two sentence comment and you became needlessly all defensive.

 

My whole point re: bullpen is that if you can't come up with a SYSTEMATIC approach to ensuring that you always have good bullpen pitchers, then there's no adjustments to be made to their current approach. If you said "never get a pitcher with a poor K/BB ratio, or with a poor GB/FB ratio" that would make a lot of sense and would represent a systematic approach to the problem--a litmus test for incoming pitchers, so to speak.

 

You had no such advice to offer, which means you're promoting they just take guesses, which is assured of imperfect results.

 

 

Anyway, have you watched Justin Upton very much? I haven't. From what I've seen he's a damn good player at a very young age.

 

Secondly, has there been a proposed trade? I haven't seen one. If you name the players and the haul, I will tell you my opinion of it.

 

All I have read is opining by people who don't know much about the actual discussions, supposing that it will cost every decent prospect and young player the Red Sox have. If that's the case, then no deal.

 

Overall, I agree a lot more with Palodios than this discussion might lead some to believe. I've always been a proponent of keeping cost controlled, key players. The only times I've balked at that approach is when someone like Felix becomes available. Upton--from all the reports--is in a similar camp in terms of his talent/age ratio. That piques my interest enough to look more closely at the idea.

 

I'm not giving a definitive answer because:

a) there's been no actual proposal

I don't know enough about Upton yet and I certainly know less than the baseball ops and scouts for the Red Sox do. Unlike you, I trust their evaluative abilities more than my own.

[a700hitter]

It's funny how you leap all over me because you can't articulate your own argument well enough to convince multiple people of your point of view. In that multi-day argument you had with the rest of the board I posted a two sentence comment and you became needlessly all defensive.

 

My whole point re: bullpen is that if you can't come up with a SYSTEMATIC approach to ensuring that you always have good bullpen pitchers, then there's no adjustments to be made to their current approach. If you said "never get a pitcher with a poor K/BB ratio, or with a poor GB/FB ratio" that would make a lot of sense and would represent a systematic approach to the problem--a litmus test for incoming pitchers, so to speak.

 

You had no such advice to offer, which means you're promoting they just take guesses, which is assured of imperfect results.

No system would be perfect, and you asked me for a systematic approach that would work 100% of the time. No such system exists when evaluating talent, and I think you have intelligence enough to know that. The system the Sox are employing in the Theo years is not yielding results that are as good as that of many other teams-- that being the measure of performance.

 

Litmus test?

 

Edit: BTW my argument was based in fact. It was perfectly logical and consistent. Everyone else was all over the map trying to argue with the infallible one and failing, hence the name-calling and personal attacks against me commenced.

 

 

Anyway, have you watched Justin Upton very much? I haven't. From what I've seen he's a damn good player at a very young age.

 

Secondly, has there been a proposed trade? I haven't seen one. If you name the players and the haul, I will tell you my opinion of it.

 

All I have read is opining by people who don't know much about the actual discussions, supposing that it will cost every decent prospect and young player the Red Sox have. If that's the case, then no deal.

 

Overall, I agree a lot more with Palodios than this discussion might lead some to believe. I've always been a proponent of keeping cost controlled, key players. The only times I've balked at that approach is when someone like Felix becomes available. Upton--from all the reports--is in a similar camp in terms of his talent/age ratio. That piques my interest enough to look more closely at the idea.

 

I'm not giving a definitive answer because:

a) there's been no actual proposal

I don't know enough about Upton yet and I certainly know less than the baseball ops and scouts for the Red Sox do. Unlike you, I trust their evaluative abilities.

As for this issue. Stop being such a [ATTACH]719[/ATTACH] and offer your own opinion of one of the packages being rumored.

[a700hitter]

Seriously Example, your opinion is as valid as anyone else here, and you are very knowledgeable about the game and the Red Sox organization, so why do you defer to what the FO will do? Yes, they should know better than us, but sometimes they are wrong and we're right. We are allowed to disagree with them. They will not revoke our Red Sox Nation memberships.

[example1]

Seriously Example' date=' your opinion is as valid as anyone else here, and you are very knowledgeable about the game and the Red Sox organization, so why do you defer to what the FO will do? [/quote']

 

This whole question doesn't mesh well with how I prefer to think about baseball. Trading for Upton is more akin to trading for a big time prospect than it is to trading for an all star. Unlike a prospect, however, he will take an all-star (if not HOF) package to pry him loose. Apparently the Red Sox are considering this option seriously, which makes me think there is more to Upton than the numbers suggest.

 

As Palidos says, it's a HUGE package to give up for an .820 career OPS player. At the same time, I don't have comparables for someone with that production at such a young age. The best comps I've heard are in the Junior Griffey realm. If you have other good ones I would love to see them.

 

In brief, Ellsbury, Bard, Lowrie and Kelly would be too much, IMO.

 

I would be really hesitant to trade both Kalish and Ellsbury in any trade, and overall I'm hesitant about trading Bard in any package--less because of his inherent skills and more because I'm skeptical about Papelbon's ability moving forward and think a closer like Bard is hard to find.

 

Here's what I would try: Lowrie, Kalish, Doubront and Kelly. I don't think losing that group would hurt the current team too much but I think Lowrie and Kalish will be regular players for AZ, and Doubront would immediately fit into their big league roster. Kelly would be their project but possibly the best player in the deal.

 

I think players like Reddick, Pimentel, Bowden, Navarro or Iglesias could be other possible pieces and would be worth consideration as 5th or even 6th pieces.

 

Overall, I love the idea of adding one of the league's most exciting young players to the Red Sox for his pre-prime and prime years. The Red Sox could use a big acquisition and someone to change the balance of power in the East.

[Keeper]

I would trade Ellsbury or Kalish for Upton, but not both of them in a package because we'll need one of them moving forward. I would also include Kelly. But I would be extremely reluctant to include Bard. If the Sox could swing a deal with Ellsbury/Kalish, Kelly, and another prospect like Doubront or Lars I would do it in a heartbeat.

[a700hitter]

This whole question doesn't mesh well with how I prefer to think about baseball. Trading for Upton is more akin to trading for a big time prospect than it is to trading for an all star. Unlike a prospect, however, he will take an all-star (if not HOF) package to pry him loose. Apparently the Red Sox are considering this option seriously, which makes me think there is more to Upton than the numbers suggest.

 

As Palidos says, it's a HUGE package to give up for an .820 career OPS player. At the same time, I don't have comparables for someone with that production at such a young age. The best comps I've heard are in the Junior Griffey realm. If you have other good ones I would love to see them.

 

In brief, Ellsbury, Bard, Lowrie and Kelly would be too much, IMO.

 

I would be really hesitant to trade both Kalish and Ellsbury in any trade, and overall I'm hesitant about trading Bard in any package--less because of his inherent skills and more because I'm skeptical about Papelbon's ability moving forward and think a closer like Bard is hard to find.

 

Here's what I would try: Lowrie, Kalish, Doubront and Kelly. I don't think losing that group would hurt the current team too much but I think Lowrie and Kalish will be regular players for AZ, and Doubront would immediately fit into their big league roster. Kelly would be their project but possibly the best player in the deal.

 

I think players like Reddick, Pimentel, Bowden, Navarro or Iglesias could be other possible pieces and would be worth consideration.

 

Overall, I love the idea of adding one of the league's most exciting young players to the Red Sox for his pre-prime and prime years. The Red Sox could use a big acquisition and someone to change the balance of power in the East.

I agree with your assessment. I don't like moving a major league arm like bard either, and I'm not crazy about moving Ellsbury either. His value is too low right now. I like the packages you proposed. My main reservation about Upton is whether he has the same attitude as his brother. We don't need that headache.

 

Thanks for sharing.

[Will617]

I agree with your assessment. I don't like moving a major league arm like bard either, and I'm not crazy about moving Ellsbury either. His value is too low right now. I like the packages you proposed. My main reservation about Upton is whether he has the same attitude as his brother. We don't need that headache.

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

I think Ellsbury is still valued higher than Kalish, whatever his value now. If it were the difference between offering Ellsbury+Doubront rather than Kalish+Kelly, I'd rather deal Ellsbury.

I've also read in a few places that the Dbacks seem to prefer Ellsbury to Kalish, given that Kalish is less proven.

It sounds like the Sox are trying to involve a third or even fourth team at this point, so Papelbon (and, I suppose, a lot of other players) could be a potential moving parts.

[example1]

I agree with your assessment. I don't like moving a major league arm like bard either, and I'm not crazy about moving Ellsbury either. His value is too low right now. I like the packages you proposed. My main reservation about Upton is whether he has the same attitude as his brother. We don't need that headache.

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

Most people here--especially non-Sox fans here--will think that package is much too low, but I actually worry it could be too high. That might be the right combination for Arizona.

 

If Lowrie and Kalish become good regular MLB players and Doubront is servicable they will have "won" the deal. A team like Arizona will benefit from getting a core of players to put on the field. A team like Boston is in search of another consistently 4-6 WAR player who only takes up one roster spot. They need as many of those guys filling their regular positions as possible.

[example1]

I think Ellsbury is still valued higher than Kalish, whatever his value now. If it were the difference between offering Ellsbury+Doubront rather than Kalish+Kelly, I'd rather deal Ellsbury.

I've also read in a few places that the Dbacks seem to prefer Ellsbury to Kalish, given that Kalish is less proven.

It sounds like the Sox are trying to involve a third or even fourth team at this point, so Papelbon (and, I suppose, a lot of other players) could be a potential moving parts.

 

All of this chatter tells me the Sox are taking this opportunity very seriously and want Upton pretty badly. Involving other teams, discussing late into the night, etc., makes me think this is closer than we might otherwise think.

[a700hitter]

Most people here--especially non-Sox fans here--will think that package is much too low, but I actually worry it could be too high. That might be the right combination for Arizona.

 

If Lowrie and Kalish become good regular MLB players and Doubront is servicable they will have "won" the deal. A team like Arizona will benefit from getting a core of players to put on the field. A team like Boston is in search of another consistently 4-6 WAR player who only takes up one roster spot. They need as many of those guys filling their regular positions as possible.

I think your package could be a winner for Az. I'm not that high on Upton, because he like his brother seems to be struggling a bit to raise his game to the next level-- star level. I am concerned that he doesn't get there. According to every scout, the potential is there, so I'd be willing to part with the package you are suggesting. They should all be good major leaguers, but none of them are irreplaceable in the organization.

[alphilip77]

I'd do a package of Ellsbury/Doubront/Reddick/ and throw in Papelbon (with his 2011 salary covered). Now before anyone jumps down my throat for proposing Paps, hear me out. Even though his value is low, he could have a bounceback year in 2011. So much to the point that teams in need of a closer would sell the farm for him. This would benefit the D-Backs in two ways: 1)NL team that can use an AL East proven closer if they are in the thick of things OR 2)Serve as a valuable trade chip at the deadline or net them a couple of picks if he walks in FA next winter. Then we turn around and sign another closer like Soriano to make up for the loss of Paps AND we get to keep Kalish.

[BSN07]

Upton's numbers are very Griffey jr like. Jr had a higher AVG in his first 3 years. But HR, OBP, SLG and OPS are all comparable.

[BSN07]

The only hold back on Upton I have is the state of his shoulder.

[BSN07]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tim_marchman/11/18/justin.upton/index.html

 

Interesting read.

[Spudboy]

Upton had a stellar 2009 but his numbers across the board dropped off in 2010.

 

Why?

 

Was or is he injured?

[WhiskeyBreath]

I'd LOVE to see Upton on the Sox but I just don't see Theo parting with the necessary amount of talent to get him here. Upton has "best player in baseball" potential.

[soxfan74]

If the sox could land Upton that would be huge. I would send Kelly in a heartbeat. The other players involved cold be tricky. Kelly, Ellsbury, and Anderson would be a pretty good deal. Throw in a middle reliever type Like possibly Pimental or Weiland. What becomes a problem is Arizona is looking for MLB ready guys right now. If I where to guess. Upton will probably be playing in Arizona in 2011. Doubt Towers will get the deal he wants.

[SoxSport]

Ellsbury will be harder to deal to a smaller market team because of Boras. The DBacks would like to unload Upton's contract, and wouldn't want another big one imminent. Maybe Kalish or some of the other younger talent would be preferred. I wonder if Epstein would trade Bard for Upton.

The other card here is Reynolds. Maybe a Reynolds-Upton package would get Upton for less. But Reynolds has some real batting eye problems. You could see Reynolds-Youks at either 1B or 3B.

[example1]

Ellsbury will be harder to deal to a smaller market team because of Boras. The DBacks would like to unload Upton's contract, and wouldn't want another big one imminent. Maybe Kalish or some of the other younger talent would be preferred. I wonder if Epstein would trade Bard for Upton.

The other card here is Reynolds. Maybe a Reynolds-Upton package would get Upton for less. But Reynolds has some real batting eye problems. You could see Reynolds-Youks at either 1B or 3B.

 

I don't think the D-Backs are trading him because of his salary, are they? He's going to cost an average of $9.85m over the next 5 years. That's pretty reasonable for the team's #3 hitting star.

 

They're interested in trading him to load up their team in multiple positions. They could potentially get the best haul we have ever seen, which would really help. Looking at the Teixeira deal and Texas's success, Arizona must be thinking about how they could do something similar. Seems reasonable to me.

[example1]

MLBTR forwarding a tweet saying Joaquin Benoit signed with Detroit, 3 years/16.5m. Damn, he's one of the better FA relievers out there. At least he didn't resign with TB. I imagine the 3 years was more than the FO was willing to do, though I hope $5.5 was within their budget.