The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[a700hitter]

Not many teams have 17.5M to risk on a player like Beltran. That's what some teams have for a whole off season to spend. Some less.

The Mets are motivated by money at this time. If no other team will pony up $17.5 million, than offer less. A prospect would be superflous. He'll go to whichever team takes the most of his salary. There's no need to add a real prospect.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not many teams have 17.5M to risk on a player like Beltran. That's what some teams have for a whole off season to spend. Some less.

 

The sox do, especially if it is only for one season. That might be the yearly AAV they offer Jayson Werth

[BSN07]

The sox do' date=' especially if it is only for one season. That might be the yearly AAV they offer Jayson Werth[/quote']

 

If it is it won't be with the Red Sox. I don't believe the Mets are in as much distress as a700 would hope. Yes they are probably looking to cut costs. But it's not going to be a fire sale. I would imagine if the Mets can get a decent prospect or 2 back, they would probably take on some portion of his remaining salary. After Ortiz and Beltran there is about 10M left to fill out the BP, C and 1B openings. That is cutting it awfully close IMO.

[The Celtbot]

I'm not sure I'd want Beltran with all the injuries he's had so far in his career, but then again Ellsbury was injured constantly through last season. I kind of would rather we kept Ellsbury, assuming he's healthy, and focus on either a left/right fielder along the lines of Werth and Crawford.

[a700hitter]

If it is it won't be with the Red Sox. I don't believe the Mets are in as much distress as a700 would hope. Yes they are probably looking to cut costs. But it's not going to be a fire sale. I would imagine if the Mets can get a decent prospect or 2 back' date=' they would probably take on some portion of his remaining salary. After Ortiz and Beltran there is about 10M left to fill out the BP, C and 1B openings. That is cutting it awfully close IMO.[/quote']

In addition to the public news about the Mets financial condition, I have friends that work for the Mets in the their Marketing department. They have been having payroll problems for about 2 years. They are on the brink financially. If they can't get someone to pickup most of his salary now, they'll dump him at the Deadline and look for a prospect then. There is no reason to offer any real prospect now.

[Palodios]

The Red Sox need a stopgap at 3b, but in the OF a long term contract would be fine, since there will be about 6 million total committed to the outfield in 2012(Only Ellsbury/Kalish). I think Werth/Crawford are better options than what is coming in next year's offseason-missing out on two offseasons with big OFs when you can afford them just seems like a bad idea. Dejesus is the only big OF I see, but I certainly don't like him as much as Crawford.

[Dojji]

The sox do' date=' especially if it is only for one season. That might be the yearly AAV they offer Jayson Werth[/quote']

 

Yeah, no. Werth might be the BPA but he's no offensive superstar. He's a solid high quality outfielder but there's better out there. That said I still go after him because strong offensive right fielders in particular seem to be a vanishing breed for some reason but if he wants ridiculous superstar money I pass

[a700hitter]

Here's the Mets dilemma with Beltran and certain of their other stars. I have heard a few different estimates regarding the number of tickets they need to sell to stay afloat, One figure that seems reliable is the threshold of 7,000 fewer per game ticket sales. If average attendance falls by more than 7,000, the word is that the owners will be kaput (a technical, legal financial term). They expect to lose fans, so they desperately need to pare payroll to match the decrease in revenue. Right now they are engaged in a big push to sign up the season ticket holders before December. They are offering a very attractive package of no cost perks for the fans if they commit in November. The package includes meet and greets with players and coaches, on field batting practice and other good stuff. About the only thing they are not offering is for the fans to manage the games. After November, they should be in a good position to project revenue loss. With regard to selling off parts, they need to have a very good handle on how much additional revenue loss will result. If they dump a couple of stars and ticket sales go down an additional 5,000 per game, that would not make sense. If they are going to dump Beltran, they'll need to trim almost all of his salary for the move to make sense. They have no interest in getting anything other than window dressing-type talent in return. If the deal makes no financial sense, they'll look for a real prospect at the trading deadline. The Sox have the dough. They should take $15 million of his salary and send the Mets a ball boy. Alderson would drive Beltran to the airport.

[BSN07]

They can't be too strapped for cash if they picked up the 11M option on Reyes. I would be surprised if Alderson didn't try and bring some talent back for Beltran. Even if it means he has to pick up 5M or so this season.

 

 

And Beltran isn't 17.5M next season he's 18.5M. Not a big difference but I had mentioned the incorrect figure a couple times in other posts.

[Palodios]

Yeah' date=' no. Werth might be the BPA but he's no offensive superstar. He's a solid high quality outfielder but there's better out there. That said I still go after him because strong offensive right fielders in particular seem to be a vanishing breed for some reason but if he wants ridiculous superstar money I pass[/quote']

 

Werth might not be Pujols, but he's still damn good. #10 in OPS overall while in RF is hard to argue. Hell, he was #1 in OPS for RF this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

They can't be too strapped for cash if they picked up the 11M option on Reyes. I would be surprised if Alderson didn't try and bring some talent back for Beltran. Even if it means he has to pick up 5M or so this season.

 

 

And Beltran isn't 17.5M next season he's 18.5M. Not a big difference but I had mentioned the incorrect figure a couple times in other posts.

 

You gotta bring Reyes back. If healthy, he's an elite SS. If he isnt, then he's useless. Lately, he has been injured, but should be totally healthy this yr. My guess is the Mets accepted the option so they can get a solid half yr out of him and sell high rather than letting him walk for nothing. It's an $11 mil risk, that has the potential to only be a $6 mil risk to get elite talent back

[a700hitter]

You gotta bring Reyes back. If healthy' date=' he's an elite SS. If he isnt, then he's useless. Lately, he has been injured, but should be totally healthy this yr. My guess is the Mets accepted the option so they can get a solid half yr out of him and sell high rather than letting him walk for nothing. It's an $11 mil risk, that has the potential to only be a $6 mil risk to get elite talent back[/quote']

I agree. If they start dumpimg salary at this point in the off season, no one will renew season tickets. They did not have the luxury to wait. The deadline came so they exercised the option. What is telling is that they didn't attempt to extend him, especially since he is a young core player. If they do a sell off, it will happen much later in the off season, except they might jump early if someone takes all of Beltran's salary.

[a700hitter]

Werth might not be Pujols' date=' but he's still damn good. #10 in OPS overall while in RF is hard to argue. Hell, he was #1 in OPS for RF this year.[/quote']I would have been in favor of a superstar contract for Matt Holliday last year. He is a bona fide power hitting superstar. Crawford is obviously a very different type of offensive player, but he is also a superstar. He is an offensive force-- a game changing player. I'd open the vault for him. Werth is a very nice player, but not a superstar. I'd go stop gap (i.e., Beltran) if Werth wants superstar money.

[Palodios]

I agree with most of that, but if they'll be losing Cameron/Drew/Beltran in 2012, what would the team be stopgaping to? Dejesus is the best available, but he'll cost a ton for a .800 OPS hitter too.

[a700hitter]

I agree with most of that' date=' but if they'll be losing Cameron/Drew/Beltran in 2012, what would the team be stopgaping to? Dejesus is the best available, but he'll cost a ton for a .800 OPS hitter too.[/quote']Good point. They may have to stopgap again for 2012.

[a700hitter]

Would it be worth losing VMart if the Yankees lose out on Lee?

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/texas-rangers-could-make-offseason-splash-for-cliff-lee-victor-martinez-111210

[BSN07]

Would it be worth losing VMart if the Yankees lose out on Lee?

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/texas-rangers-could-make-offseason-splash-for-cliff-lee-victor-martinez-111210

 

I would be ok with that.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Would it be worth losing VMart if the Yankees lose out on Lee?

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/texas-rangers-could-make-offseason-splash-for-cliff-lee-victor-martinez-111210

 

No.

[example1]

I think VMart is gone anyway. I envision an offseason similar to last year, with some bargain pickups and maybe a good signing or two. Unlike a700 I would be fine with Werth, but like a700 I would be pretty excited by adding Crawford, and part of me thiks that they are going to go "all out" to get him.

 

With their movemet toward speed and defense Crawford makes a ton of sense. An OF of Crawford, Ellsbury and Kalish from 2012 moving forward would cover a lot of ground and be dangerous at the plate and on the basepaths.

[Dojji]

I think Crawford might as well get fitted for his Los Angeles Angels uniform right now and save himself some time later, to be completely honest. Combine their bad year with money to spend and Anaheim's love for the speed game and you have a significant natural fit between that team and that player.

[WhiskeyBreath]

Agreed. Crawford is the perfect fit for the Angels. I'd be pretty surprised to see him land anywhere else.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think VMart is gone as well. With Texas, Detroit and probably the White Sox interested in him and most likely willing to go past 3 yrs, then I dont think he comes back

 

I think the same thing about Beltre. He had an MVP caliber season in Boston and with the sox wanting in on AdGon in 2012 or Fielder, then it makes no sense to lock in on a 3b. I do expect them to make an upgrade in the outfield and move Jacoby back to CF. I also wouldnt be surprised to see Miguel Olivo in Boston as a platoon mate for Salty. Now Salty hasnt been good in his MLB tenure. But his numbers as a RHB are absolutely abysmal. His OPS in his big league career as a RHB is under .600. His OPS as a lefty hitter is in the .760 range, which is passable at the C position. My prediction for them at this juncture is as follows

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Youkilis 3B

4. Ortiz DH

5. Werth LF

6. Drew RF

7. D. Lee 1B

8. Olivo/Saltalamacchia C

9. Scutaro/Lowrie SS

 

I bet the sox go out and get a 1 yr stopgap at 1b, a guy who they could potentially rehabilitate value on a 1 yr deal and potentially get some draft picks back a la Adrian Beltre. Derrek Lee fits that mold. This also allows for the sox to work Lowrie into the mix a bit more as a 3b/1b/backup SS and potentially get somewhere in the neighborhood of 120 starts for him. I think Werth fits in Boston too well, and while they wont be willing to go the extra mile for VMart and Beltre, they will for Werth. There is a reason for it....

 

The sox have Kalish, who I think will be an excellent player one day. But I do not forsee it in 2011. They have 2 OFers going into their final yrs in Boston, in Cameron and Drew. The sox look like they are about to lose 2 middle of the order cogs from 2010 in Beltre and VMart. Therefore, they can add significant power in the OF while also allowing for a spot to open in 2012 for the presumably emerging Kalish.

 

Also, Papi and Scutaro also come off the books after 2011. That frees up the sox to move Lowrie over to SS and then still bring in an AdGon as a FA as the 1b. This also gives the sox a 1 yr trial on Salty and see if he can hack it. If he cannot, then the sox might not be that hard up to sign a defense first guy like a Gerald Laird and stick him back there knowing that he wont cost you games with his arm or his blocking skills.

 

I think in Theo's utopia.....Werth signs, the sox get AdGon in 2012, and Salty/Kalish/Lowrie progress into regulars.

 

Theo's utopia lineup 2012

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Youkilis 3B

4. Gonzalez 1B

5. Werth RF

6. Kalish LF

7. Lowrie SS

8. Saltalamacchia C

9. ??? (Maybe Ortiz) DH

 

Obviously, if they sign a power bat to fill in at DH, that batter would move up to around #6

[Dojji]

Lavarnway DH. He killed the ball in AA so he's close enough to possibly be up in 2 seasons.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dojji, even if the trio of Lowrie, Salty, and Kalish prove they are ready and able for prime time starting positions in 2012, would you really want to add to that issue by bringing up a rookie DH? My bet would be on another 1 yr stopgap at DH for 2012 and then seeing if the lineup has solidified. By then, Lavarnway could be up

[Will617]

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=5796794

 

Theo wants 1-2 relievers, is reluctant to lose picks for relievers, and wants Beltre and Martinez back (at least, this is what he says). I think the stuff about relievers is perhaps truer than the stuff he says about Beltre and VMart.

[BSN07]

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=5796794

 

Theo wants 1-2 relievers, is reluctant to lose picks for relievers, and wants Beltre and Martinez back (at least, this is what he says). I think the stuff about relievers is perhaps truer than the stuff he says about Beltre and VMart.

 

He has to say he "wants" those guys back. If not, there would be a lynch mob waiting for him outside headed by a700

 

I don't think those 2 are part of the long term plan anyways. The RP part is much more reasonable.

[a700hitter]

He has to say he "wants" those guys back. If not, there would be a lynch mob waiting for him outside headed by a700

 

I don't think those 2 are part of the long term plan anyways. The RP part is much more reasonable.

You still don't understand me. I have always been cynical about pronouncements by the FO. I don't care about what they say. It's just PR. I care about what they do.

[BSN07]

You still don't understand me. I have always been cynical about pronouncements by the FO. I don't care about what they say. It's just PR. I care about what they do.

 

Well to make the moves that will really help this team going forward they might not be able to "do" much this particular off season.

[a700hitter]

Well to make the moves that will really help this team going forward they might not be able to "do" much this particular off season.

That is just not acceptable when they charge the highest ticket prices in baseball and have so many other lucrative income streams.

[BSN07]

That is just not acceptable when they charge the highest ticket prices in baseball and have so many other lucrative income streams.

 

So there just supposed to blow there money now just because they have it? They aren't allowed to save it so the can drop 150M in Agon's lap to secure him as the teams 1B for 2012-2018? That's just dumb.

 

The team will be fine with Youk going to 3B and the team bringing in a one year guy to keep the seat warm for Agon. Can you please not only look at the immediate upcoming season, and try to have a small margin of vision.

 

Even with no one signed they have something like 120M committed to next season. That's way more then most teams. So there not exactly stuffing it under their mattress.