Schilling: Sign Beckett -- Now

[Imperial59]

Bingo.

 

Not to say I wouldn't want Lee on my team. But he is, what, 4 years older than Beckett?

Given that it will take a major commitment (4-5 years/16-18 mil. per) it only makes sense to sign Beckett. What's disturbing though, is that the Boston Media has been saying that the Sox are leery of Beckett's shoulder. Is there any reason to believe that there is anything to this?

 

All things being equal, I'm in the "bird in the hand" camp. Sign Beckett.

 

But make him shave that God awful beard!

 

He's 1.5 years older.

[roary]

2 years can still make a difference, especially if we're talking about a 5 year contract

[Emmz]

It can make a difference, but I think that's probably about the only thing Beckett really has going for him over Lee in my opinion.

[Dojji]

Lee doesn't hold a ton over Beckett either though. In the end, they're both really different, really good pitchers -- one a prototypical power righty ace, the other a prototypical command/finesse lefty ace.

 

BTW if you asked me who's likeliest to age well, my guess would probably be Beckett, if only because Lee's already living on his command, while Beckett can throw it by people and also has great command on top of that. Basically I feel Beckett's toolbox is slightly bigger and that'll hold him in good stead as he gets older.

 

In all seriousness though, they're both really good and both should age well -- although I'd like to see Lee bring his h/9 down a little.

[Imperial59]

Lee doesn't hold a ton over Beckett either though. In the end, they're both really different, really good pitchers -- one a prototypical power righty ace, the other a prototypical command/finesse lefty ace.

 

BTW if you asked me who's likeliest to age well, my guess would probably be Beckett, if only because Lee's already living on his command, while Beckett can throw it by people and also has great command on top of that. Basically I feel Beckett's toolbox is slightly bigger and that'll hold him in good stead as he gets older.

 

In all seriousness though, they're both really good and both should age well -- although I'd like to see Lee bring his h/9 down a little.

 

Lee lives and dies with his command and Beckett lives and dies with his velocity. Lee could stand to bring his hit rates down and Beckett could stand to bring his home run rates down. I wouldn't be all that disappointed if we sign either one, but traditionally it's been the finesse pitchers that age better than the power guys and I think that's why most of the posters here seem to prefer Lee.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

Lee lives and dies with his command and Beckett lives and dies with his velocity. Lee could stand to bring his hit rates down and Beckett could stand to bring his home run rates down. I wouldn't be all that disappointed if we sign either one' date=' but traditionally it's been the finesse pitchers that age better than the power guys and I think that's why most of the posters here seem to prefer Lee.[/b']

 

Yeah, this. Plus Beckett's injuries in the past always will concern me, although I don't know if Lee has had many.

[Keeper]

Lee lives and dies with his command and Beckett lives and dies with his velocity. Lee could stand to bring his hit rates down and Beckett could stand to bring his home run rates down. I wouldn't be all that disappointed if we sign either one' date=' but traditionally it's been the finesse pitchers that age better than the power guys and I think that's why most of the posters here seem to prefer Lee.[/quote']

 

This. Lee's command has been crazy good the last 2 seasons. If he has another outstanding season for the Mariners, I'd take him moving forward.

[Dipre]

I can only wonder how one can logically think that command is more likely to erode than velocity.

[Dojji]

It's more that as Beckett's velocity declines, he has his command to fall back on -- and Beckett's command is probably underrated because we think of him as a power guy -- since 2007, Beckett's command has been pretty Schillinglike, never much over 2 bb/9. He's actually quite a decent command pitcher, just we forget that when we see him blowing smoke by people.

 

Lee's already having to do the stuff Beckett has available to fall back on, just to get outs with the velocity he has now, so as his velocity declines his window is going to get a little narrower a little faster, whereas Beckett is more free to reinvent himself as exactly the kind of pitcher Lee is now.

[Emmz]

See Greg Maddox vs. Pedro Martinez. Two of the greatest pitchers of all time. Pedro had a few years that are possibly, if not probably, the best three years, maybe four, that a pitcher's ever had. Maddox was a command guy who could stay at about the low 90's, and topped out at about 91. He aged much better than Pedro did, he was completely dominant through the 90's and early 2000's. Power pitching erodes faster than finesse, command pitching.

[Dipre]

Beckett doesn't have the secondary stuff to transition easily into the "reinvention" period of his career, specially if that changeup doesn't come around this year. He lives and dies by velocity and i fail to see how someone can think otherwise.

[a700hitter]

There is not a compelling case in favor of Lee or Beckett. Beckett has done the job in Boston and the FO has a relationship with Beckett. They are more likely to get him to sign at a better value contract IMO. If they sign either of these guys, it will be Beckett.

[Dipre]

Yeah Beckett's not signing on a discount after his last contract. He's going to want to maximize his earnings.

[Mr Crunchy]

See Greg Maddox vs. Pedro Martinez. Two of the greatest pitchers of all time. Pedro had a few years that are possibly' date=' if not probably, the best three years, maybe four, that a pitcher's ever had. Maddox was a command guy who could stay at about the low 90's, and topped out at about 91. He aged much better than Pedro did, he was completely dominant through the 90's and early 2000's. Power pitching erodes faster than finesse, command pitching.[/quote']

 

This is true but when Maddux pitched in the playoffs he was definitley beatable.

he also had some help on that staff with Smoltz and Glavine in that lineup where as Martinez had guys like Brett Saberhagen and Kevin Appier backing him up...

I wouldve liked to seen Martinez circa 98- 1999 in the 03-04 playoffs, it wouldve been fun as he was THE best pitcher I have ever seen in my life and he did it in the day of the roids.

I think he got hurt in the 99 all star game and pitched thru it for years before he completely broke down for Omar Minaya.

You can still be a finesse pitcher in the National League for 30 starts a year as evidenced by Jamie Moyer still pitching into his late 40s and you can build these stats against the weaker lineups in these huge stadiums but when the big games come in October I'll take the power guys...Wakefield is a good example, never to be confused with Maddux he is an inning eating machine capable of winning 15-17 games a year even now into his 40s.

Charlie Hough and the Neikro brothers also had this ability, when you dont strain your arm you get more out of your career for obvious reasons

[TheKilo]

This thread is hilarious. T those pimping Lee's last two seasons, why no mention of his 2007 when he got sent to the minors, and when oh yeah Beckett finished second in the Cy Young voting. The cherry-picking in this thread is quite funny.

 

Dojji has made a LOT of solid points and once again they get pushed aside as if they are nothing.

[TheKilo]

I can only wonder how one can logically think that command is more likely to erode than velocity.

 

Probably because every pitching coach on the planet thinks so? When a pitcher is still throwing 95 in the 7th inning but is starting to get hit, why do you think that is? as pitchers get tired they lose precision as to where they want the ball to go, but they can still throw hard.

[a700hitter]

Yeah Beckett's not signing on a discount after his last contract. He's going to want to maximize his earnings.

He will not sign for a discount, but if the Sox do open up the wallet for one of these guys, I think it will be Beckett.

[TheKilo]

And lastly, as for the Beckett/Pedro comp, it's ridiculous. Have you even noticed the difference in body type?

[Mr Crunchy]

Yeah Beckett's not signing on a discount after his last contract. He's going to want to maximize his earnings.

 

He'll want and probably get more money than Lackey got but I dont think he'll be approaching that monster deal that Sabby got in NY unless it comes from the Mets or Yanks and even then he'll have to have 200+ip with 200Ks and a sub 3 era with some October success mixed in. Im not sure that'll get him a 5 year deal either but who knows.

Its hard to judge the market these days but if Beckett approaches his 07 season he will write his own ticket and I doubt he will be here next year if he does have a Cy Young type season.

[a700hitter]

This thread is hilarious. T those pimping Lee's last two seasons, why no mention of his 2007 when he got sent to the minors, and when oh yeah Beckett finished second in the Cy Young voting. The cherry-picking in this thread is quite funny.

 

Dojji has made a LOT of solid points and once again they get pushed aside as if they are nothing.

What's your opinion? Do you think Beckett is clearly the better pitcher?

[Dojji]

Beckett doesn't have the secondary stuff to transition easily into the "reinvention" period of his career' date=' specially if that changeup doesn't come around this year. He lives and dies by velocity and i fail to see how someone can think otherwise.[/quote']

 

I very strongly disagree. That curve of his can be flat out filthy, it's not better because he doesn't throw it enough. His offspeed stuff is more than good enough to let a guy hang around if he tops out at say 94 instead of 98, and for now that's all he needs.

 

I honestly think that Beckett's going to have some years towards the end of his career that are going to make people wonder where the heck that was when he could throw 98. His command is very good, the offspeed pitches are there to be worked on, if he can add another offspeed pitch or maybe two as he loses the upper edge of his velocity range he's going to surprise some people.

 

Half his problem right now is that he he thinks he can get his heat past anyone, anywhere, anytime. He mostly unlearned that in '06, but he still does relapse from time to time -- that game in '08 against the Brewers is a classic example, dominant performance except for two pitches, both of which were fastballs that left in a hurry.

 

He gets fully disabused of his young-pitcher ideas and at some point he'll actually start pitching, and I think we'd be pleasantly surprised by the result. I do not think that we've seen the best of Beckett yet. That was part of Schill's point in the OP too.

[Imperial59]

I very strongly disagree. That curve of his can be flat out filthy' date=' it's not better because he doesn't throw it enough. His offspeed stuff is more than good enough to let a guy hang around if he tops out at say 94 instead of 98, and for now that's all he needs.[/quote']

 

His curve is his one good offspeed pitch. His change sucks and it's the only other offspeed pitch he throws.

[BoSox21]

If he can locate his FB and throw his curve for strikes, it doesn't matter that he doesn't have a great third pitch, he's unhittable.

[Dojji]

Yeah, the thing about Beckett is that he has a much larger margin for error because he combines velocity and command, and he's still going to have that combo as he ages -- he's just going to have to err more on the "command" side of the spectrum.

 

Lee's velocity is solid, and his command is out of this world, but he's already resting mostly on his command to be as effective as he is. As his skills deteriorate, it's going to be much harder for Lee to reinvent himself and continually adjust to the league's adjustments to him than it will be for Beckett to do the same.

 

His curve is his one good offspeed pitch. His change sucks and it's the only other offspeed pitch he throws.

 

Which is why he'll have to add to his arsenal as he ages. It's not exactly unheard of for a pitcher to add to his repertoire.

 

Oh, and Beckett also throws a half decent two-seamer and I've occasionally seen him freeze people with what I'd best describe as a backdoor cutter.

[Imperial59]

Yeah' date=' the thing about Beckett is that he has a much larger margin for error because [b']he combines velocity and command, and he's still going to have that combo as he ages[/b] -- he's just going to have to err more on the "command" side of the spectrum.

 

Lee's velocity is solid, and his command is out of this world, but he's already resting mostly on his command to be as effective as he is. As his skills deteriorate, it's going to be much harder for Lee to reinvent himself and continually adjust to the league's adjustments to him than it will be for Beckett to do the same.

 

 

 

Which is why he'll have to add to his arsenal as he ages. It's not exactly unheard of for a pitcher to add to his repertoire.

 

Oh, and Beckett also throws a half decent two-seamer and I've occasionally seen him freeze people with what I'd best describe as a backdoor cutter.

 

His velocity is going to be the first thing to go. And I'm not excited about having a 35 year old Beckett getting lit up on his 93 mph fastball and not knowing how to make the adjustment. He's a thrower, not much of a pitcher.

[Imperial59]

Which is why he'll have to add to his arsenal as he ages. It's not exactly unheard of for a pitcher to add to his repertoire.

 

Oh, and Beckett also throws a half decent two-seamer and I've occasionally seen him freeze people with what I'd best describe as a backdoor cutter.

 

His two-seamer is quite good. He seems to get a lot of strikeouts on it.

[Dojji]

His velocity is going to be the first thing to go. And I'm not excited about having a 35 year old Beckett getting lit up on his 93 mph fastball and not knowing how to make the adjustment. He's a thrower' date=' not much of a pitcher.[/quote']

 

That is ridiculously untrue. When he came here, he was a thrower, but look at his command, look at his stuff, and more importantly, look at the results over the last 3 years.

 

Fenway isn't the easiest place to pitch, but Beckett came here and clicked. He does have moments where he gets into the habit of just trying to throw gas and blow it by people, but he does know how to locate, he does use his offspeed stuff, and that makes his fastball all the more effective. All he has to do to sustain that is be proactive about expanding his arsenal a bit as he loses his heat, and keep locating.

 

Your criticisms of Josh Beckett are about 4 years out of date, my friend.

[Dipre]

Probably because every pitching coach on the planet thinks so? When a pitcher is still throwing 95 in the 7th inning but is starting to get hit' date=' why do you think that is? as pitchers get tired they lose precision as to where they want the ball to go, but they can still throw hard.[/quote']

 

Prove every pitching coach in the planet thinks so, that's a very global and incorrect statement, not to mention out of context. We're talking three-four years into the contract. Not the seventh inning of the first game of the year.

[Dipre]

You can't assure he'll add to his arsenal. You're stating assumption as fact. Which is an incorrect way to approach things. His secondary stuff consists of an excellent curveball and a not-very-good changeup, two-seamer is not secondary stuff. The fact that he's on the Sox doesn't necessarily mean he has to be overvalued.

[Dipre]

For the record, no need to jump on people who, all things equal, would rather Lee to Beckett, because he's clearly been the better pitcher for the last two years, i would personally be happy with either, but given age, contract demands, and familiarity with the team, Beckett is probably the way to go, my argument is that trying to state that Lee is the better pitcher, even if Beckett is the better fit for the team. Fire away.

 

Excellent point by Crunchy about contract issues.